Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases I wrote full write ups for the 2.10 at Haydock and 4.10 at Gowran but just deleted them thinking they were an old file I no longer needed :wall I can remember who my main picks were so these shorter ups will have to do now. 2.10 Haydock 9 runners line up for this 3m handicap chase for runners rated 0-115 and the three I think are the ones to concentrate on are Ngong Hills, Sea Cadet and Kalmo Bay. Ngong Hills won off 7 lb lower in October but was a good second last time out off only 4 lb lower and may be able to defy this higher mark. He has won two races over the trip and seems to be holding his form well. Sea Cadet has also been raised 4 lb from last time out when a decent second at Leicester so even though is 6 lbs higher than when winning at Doncaster is another that could go close as he is in decent nick. Kalmo Bay is one at a bigger price but is proven in handicaps off a 7 lb lower mark and drops back down in grade here after contesting a class 3 h'cap chase last time out. They are my three against the field: Suggested bets: Ngong Hills 3/1 Paddypower - 0.7 pt Sea Cadet 5/1 Bet 365 - 0.2 pt Kalmo Bay 12/1 Boylesports - 0.1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 4.45 Gowran Park This race looks an absolute minefield but I'll have a go as came close to landed a winner at Navan last weekend in a similar sort of race. 18 runners contest the 6,219 euro prize and most have winning form around the trip, but the majority of that winning for has not come in handicap chases. Prince Massini won off 7 lb lower at Fairyhouse last time out in a h'cap chase though so he is my main bet. Has won over 3m before too and won't have a problem with the ground. Ooh Cha Cha came third in a handicap chase at Tramore last time out and wasn't beaten far. Is raised 2 lbs but handles soft. Euro Gypsy wasn't beaten far at Tramore last time out and is only 1 lb higher now. Not the most reliable but at least has some recent h'cap chase form to go on. Brokenheartedclown has perhaps some of the strongest form of the point to pointers and his profile hints at reliability. He won over this trip last time out so I will also have a little on him. Suggested bets Prince Massini 6/1 Paddypower - 0.65 pt Ooh Cha Cha 12/1 Paddypower - 0.1 pt Euro Gypsy 12/1 Paddypower - 0.1 pt Brokenheartedclown 8/1 Paddypower - 0.15 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Time to update results. Not sure if betting tomorrow will decide when prices are out.

Bet<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />	Date	Course	Selection	Advised	SP	Position	Profit
1.	15/3/09	Southwell	Victor Daly	9/2 Skybet, 1 pt	11/4	1/5	+4.5
2.	15/3/09	Fontwell	Hazeljack	6/1 SJ, 1 pt	11/2	1/7	+4.5 (25p R4)
3.	15/3/09	Navan	Mustangsallyrally	12/1 Paddy, 1 pt	14/1	5/19	-1
4.	16/3/09	Hereford	L’Aventure	11/2 Bet 365, 1 pt	11/2	3/10	-1
5.	16/3/09	Taunton	Cava Bien	9/4 Boyle, 0.67 pt	9/2	1/9	+2.69
			Wild Ground	9/2 SJ, 0.33 pt	9/2	4/9
6.	17/3/09	Exeter	Royal Hilarity	15/2 Paddy 0.35 pt, 12/1 Blue Sq 0.25 pt EW & 0.15 pt	17/2	4/12	-1
7.	18/3/09	Warwick	Prince of Slane	14/1 0.5 pt EW	11/2	3/12	+1.25
8.	18/3/09	Chepstow	Huckleberry	14/1 Bet 365, 0.4 pt	16/1	PU	-1
			Change Agent	14/1 Bet 365, 0.45 pt	16/1	10/17
			Zimbabwe	8/1 Bet 365, 0.15 pt	12/1	2/17
9.	20/3/09	Kelso	Mister Apples	9/1 Hills, 0.75 pt	11/2	1/7	+4.81 (25p R4)
			Panama At Once	7/1 Hills, 0.25 pt	5/1	UR
10.	21/3/09	Newbury	Alderburn	16/1 Lads, 0.1 pt	8/1	9/11	-1
			Strawberry	7/1 Bet 365, 0.2 pt	7/1	3/11
			Theatre Dance	13/2 Bet 365, 0.65 pt	5/1	4/11
11.	21/3/09	Haydock	Ngong Hills	3/1 Paddy, 0.7 pt	5/2	2/8	-1
			Sea Cadet	5/1 Bet 365, 0.2 pt	7/2	4/8
			Kalmo Bay	12/1 Boyle, 0.1 pt	14/1	PU
12.	21/3/09	Gowran Park	Prince Massini	6/1 Paddy, 0.65 pt	13/2	11/18	+0.7

No bets: 12 Profit/loss: +12.45 pts ROI: +104 % S/R: 50 %

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Yesterday went okay, although a loss was returned on the day. Ngong Hills, my nap of the day, finished second in the opener at Haydock which although disappointing, was at least fairly near. In the 2.20 at Newbury my main bet, Theatre Dancer, finished fourth but one of my savers, Strawberry, was travelling well and she was in the lead before blundering at the last. She stayed on to take third, but had she jumped cleanly she may have been able to battle with Lyes Green on the run in. However, there was some joy over in Ireland where Ooh Cha Cha returned a 16/1 winner. Backed as a saver, he made a 0.7 pt profit from that race which covered the losses from the others slightly. There are two races to get stuck into today. 3.10 Huntingdon Only five runners are declared for this class 3 handicap chase over three miles and the ones with winning form over the distance are Presenting Express (26f), Millards Lad (22f), Lord Alfred (23f) and Pairc Na Gcapall. Presenting Express is 5 lbs lower than when winning at Plumpton in Oct '06 but he has failed to win since and has something to prove at present after pulling up on his last start in December. Millards Lad is 10 lb higher than when winning at Newton Abbot in Jul '07 but he is another without a recent win to his name of late. He has been well beaten in recent starts off this sort of mark in handicaps and is passed over. Lord Alfred hasn't run since August when 3rd or 4 at Southwell but is only 6 lb higher than his last winning mark as he won off 104 in a novices chase handicap at Uttoxter in June. He helped force the pace at Southwell before weakening and a 3 lb drop in his rating will boost his chances. Pairc Na Gcapall carries bottom weight of 10-11 and although his only wins have come in Irish point to points, he was a fair second last time out at Fakenham in a novices chase. He led at a brisk pace and jumped boldly but failed to see out the race. I think the last two are the ones to concentrate on and suggest the following bets: Lord Alfred 5/1 Paddypower, 0.65 pt Pairc Na Gcapall 15/8 Bet 365, 0.35 pt 3.20 Wincanton Another small field here and eight line up to contest the £5,855 reward for the winner. They tackle 26f and the ones with wins around this trip are St Mellion Freeway (26f), Present Glory (25f), Maori Legend (26f), Hermano Cordobes (27f), Thedreamstillalive (25f), Rebel Melody (28f) and Classic Clover (28f). St Mellion Freeway won a novices chase at Stratford in November and he has solid form figures, however, they were blotted last time out when he fell at Market Rasen and he may possible need another run to build his confidence back up. Present Glory made his chase debut at Ascot in November and shaped well enough. This step back up in trip should help as he has won over 25f over hurdles and has won off his mark of 115 in that sphere. This is his chase handicap debut but he could feasibly build upon his last effort and get involved for an inform trainer. Maori Legend is 8 lb higher than when she won at Folkestone in January but she is a young chaser that has won over course and distance and open to improvement. However, she did pull up last time and for that reason is opposed. Hermano Cordobes is rated 110 and won off this mark at Newton Abbot in Jul '07. He was well behind Maori Legend over course and distance in December but at least completed on his last start when racing off a 2 lb higher mark at Ludlow and finishing 5th of 11 over three miles. Most of his best form has come going left handed though. Thedreamstillalive is 5 lb higher than when winning at Folkestone in December and he wasn't beaten far at Sandown last time out, when losing second close home. He won here back in 2005 to confirm he acts at the track and he is stepped up markedly in distance from his recent runs which could bring about improvement, bearing in mind he is a 25f winner. Rebel Melody is another course winner (won last time out here over 2f further) and has been raised 9 lb for that success. He has won over this trip previously, at Huntingdon in Dec '07 and arrives in good form. He was beaten off a lb higher mark at Stratford in October but still has time on his side. Classic Clover won off a 1 lb higher mark a year ago and goes well at the track. He is a course winner over 26 and 28f here and although beaten 57 lengths into third by Rebel Melody last time out here, is 11 lbs better off today. He was with the leader until a blunder 15 out last time, and had the jumped a clearer round he may have finished closer up to the winner. He has his usual blinkers on, which brought about his course double this time last year. Suggested bets: Rebel Melody 7/2 Skybet, 0.7 pt Classic Clover 20/1 Bet 365, 0.1 pt Present Glory 9/2 Bet 365, 0.2 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases I thought I was going to have one of those days yesterday when Lord Alfred fell only seconds into the race. I did save on Pairc Na Gcapall though so made 0.01 pt profit on the race!!!! Rebel Melody screwed up my staking in the 3.20 at Wincanton after withdrawing. I was sat in the bookies when I found out so could not adjust my stakes and I let the race run with 0.2 pt on Present Glory and 0.1 pt on Classic Clover. The latter jumped very badly, making several blunders and finishing a distant fourth but Present Glory just did enough to win, jumping well in the main but idling towards the finish and jumping sloppily in the closing stakes. Thankfully he held on and those two winners produced a +0.59 pt profit on the day (25p R4 on the latter). I have two bets for today. 5.00 Kempton This isn't a race I will be rushing back from work for but I think there are a couple that are worth backing. The ones with winning form around the 3m trip in this class 4 chase worth £3,578 to the winner are Super Lord (25f), Sesame Rambler (27f), Syncopated Rhythm (26f) and Jacardo (24f). Only five runners contest the prize, the one without winning form is David Pipe's even money favourite Power King. Super Lord has won off 8 lb higher in the past (Warwick Dec'07)but he has won going right-handed before at Wexford. He has won on good ground at Bangor and the trip is fine for him, however there are question marks about his current well being as he has pulled up on both of his last starts. Sesame Rambler won last time out at Fontwell off a 4 lb lower mark over further but has won over 3m too before in the past. He is running in the same grade here and given he has won on good ground before his current price tag makes considerable appeal. The form of his last race has been boosted by the second, Hazeljack, who won next time out and Robert Walford's mount has won at Taunton before to suggest this right handed track may not necessarily inconvenience. Syncopated Rhythm has been dropped a pound from his last start which puts him 7 lbs higher than when winning at Hereford in December. He pulled up at Folkestone at January when his mark was raised by then bounced back a little to finish sixth at Leciester in this grade last time out. He was beaten by 40 lengths but after being hampered early, at least he completed the race. Jacardo won off 9 lbs higher as recently as November after landing a handicap chase at Towcester. That win came over shorter although he was a winner over three miles back in 2006 and although all of his wins have come with soft in the going description, he does look very well handicapped. He was dropped to 77 last time out and wasn't beaten far over this trip at Leciester when 3rd of 11 which suggested another good outing could be imminent as he only faded away at the final fence. Although the Pipe runner dominates the betting he is a rookie chaser with only one previous run over fences. Admittedly he did run a cracking race last time out when beaten by a head over course and distance and the handicapper has taken note by landing him with a 7 lb rise. However, the fact of the matter remains he does not have winning form around this trip yet and he doesn't fall into the list of possibles for consideration. I don't plan on slackening up now and if he wins the race then fair play - I will just have to accept he is only of the 18 % of winners that haven't won within 3f of the trip before. Some fantastic prices are available for the remainder so my suggested bets are: Sesame Rambler - 9/2 Boyle, 0.55 pt Syncopated Rhythm - 5/1 Sporting Bet, 0.2 pt Jacardo - 10/1 Boyle, 0.25 pt 5.20 Plumpton Another small field here as only 8 contest the £3,757 class 4 prize. All have winning form around the 26f trip - Freeze Up (27f), Ibberton (24f), Eurocelt (24f), Amoreigh (26f), Pavarottis Brother (24f), Prey Bird (26f), Touch of Fate (26f) and Strolling Vagabond (28f). Freeze Up is 13 lbs higher than when winning at Fontwell in December and this lightly raced 7 yo doesn't have many miles on the clock and is thus open to further improvement with only two chase starts to his name. However, he did pull up over course and distance in December and for that reason I just cannot justify backing him at 7/4, regardless of trainer reputation. Ibberton runs off 104 here and that is 16 lbs higher than his last winning mark, which was from at Chepstow in Nov '07. He did manage a decent place over course and distance just before Christmas off only 2 lb lower but after pullling up on his last two starts I'm passing over. Eurocelt is 25/1 here and is yet to win a chase handicap. He won a beginners chase at Towcester last May and has at least been completing. However, his last race came in selling company so he is passed over. Amoreigh is a three time course and distance winner that has has done all of his winning here. Peter Bowen's veteran has been raised 4 lbs for winning here in February and although has never won off anything that high, at least is proven at the track. The slight worry about him is the ground, as he likes to get his toe in, but at the price I think he is worth a punt. Pavarottis Brother won a point to point almost a year ago and although he wasn't beaten far in a novices handicap over course and distance in November, has something to prove after pulling up the last twice. Prey Bird won a hunters chase at Folkestone last May on GF ground so may be more suited to these conditions than some. He was beaten by 8 lengths by Sesame Rambler on his debut over fences last time out but is dropped 4 lb in the weights here. He kept on right the way to the line last time out and off this revised rating I think he can give a good account as one of the least exposed performers in the field. Touch of Fate was a course and distance winner in Oct '05 but has failed to win since. Although he will relish the ground he pulled up returning from a lengthy absence last time out so is passed over. Strolling Vagabond has won off 21 lb higher in the past but has gone a long time without winning now. To be fair, he did show improvement over course and distance earlier in the month for the first time since the handicapper slashed his rating and he wasn't beaten far by Pass The Port. He isn't the most reliable and has often failed to complete but at the price I'll back him as a small saver as he is undeniably well handicapped if having a good day. Suggested bets: Amoreigh - 11/2 Blue Sq, 0.45 pt Prey Bird - 10/3 Will Hill, 0.45 pt Strolling Vagabond - 9/1 Will Hill, 0.1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Just to comment on yesterdays two races. In the 5.00 at Kempton my nap Sesame Rambler fell at the first fence, eclipsing the poor performance of Sunday's nap Lord Alfred who fell at the second! I still had Syncopated Rhythm and Jacarado though. Syncopated Rhythm was backed off the boards but never settled and was under pressure some way out. Jacarado travelled much better of that pair and came upsides the leader at one point but faced with a choice between the two in running I would have sided with the Pipe runner every time. I said before the race I feared he may be one of the 'statistical freaks' and that proved the case. He was far less exposed than Jacardado and won by a comfortable margin in the end. However, Jacarado ran credibly off his lower mark and looks to have chance of picking up a similarly weak handicap where the handicapper has a handle on all of the other runners IMO - which wasn't the case today. In the 5.20 at Plumpton I was hopeful of an upset. Freeze Up, the Pipe trained favourite, was friendless in the betting (out to 10/3 in the end from 7/4 in the morning) after pulling up on heavy ground when last seen and he had questions to answer about his well being with those factors taken into consideration. However, he ran a really good race, jumping well apart from a blunder 3 out, and won by an emphatic margin in the end. Strolling Vagabond stayed on to take second but as with the previous race, he was a well handicapped rival on old form that was relying on the favourite underperforming if he were to win. The other two I backed in the 5.20 were never in contention. There was a tiny bit of late money for Prey Bird but he was held up at the back of the field and several jumping errors put pay to his chances and i was surprised he even completed after a terrible run. Amoreigh was the big disappointment of the race. He was pretty solid in the market and boasted impressive course form, but he likes to get his toe in and perhaps the ground found him out yesterday. There is only one 3m+ staying chase handicap today but nothing offers any value for me and as things stand I'm having a day off. Killard Point and It's Like That are the two that interest me but at the current odds they are not dutchable (that is contrary to what the William Hill ticker on the RP page says....they erroneously list Killard Point as a 11/1 shot, not a 11/10 shot...if only we were so lucky). I wouldn't back either/or because both look to have very solid claims. If there is a NR or a drift I may get involved later but as things stand, no bet for today.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Its Like That beat Killard Point in the race at Southwell yesterday, and the forecast between those two looked obvious. I couldn't get involved at the prices though as I couldn't split them, and in the end the result was very tight, as only a head seperated them. They pulled 22 lengths clear of third. There are two 3m+ handicap chases today. 5.00 Taunton This looks a poor race but I think there is one that could be worth backing. The favourite is a 2/1 shot from the David Pipe yard (The Pious Prince) but he's never won beyond two miles, has PU and finished 4th of 7 (btn 37l) in two starts over fences and never even won a race over hurdles. Not in a month on Sundays would I back this at 2/1!!! Fourpointone is the next in the betting at 11/4 and he should be the favourite in my opinion. He is racing off a mark only 1 lb higher than his last win but he has questions to answer after pulling up on GS ground last time but he looks the best of a bad bunch, is proven to stay, and has form on firm ground. The fact Tom Scudamore is booked suggests a better performance is expected and the jockey gets on well with this horse. I backed Classic Clover the other day and he made a real mess of some of the fences. The jockey booking suggests a better run is expected (has never gone well for Dave Crosse in the past) but he travelled so badly last time I can't side with again until I've seen a bit more. I like Evan Williams and Donal Fahy but their horse Vibe has stamina to prove stepping up drastically in trip. Alcatras is well handicapped on old form but has been well beaten of late and is due to drop 4 lbs in the future. Clifden Boy has pulled up on both starts over fences and is easily opposed. I'm not a massive fan of backing horses that failed to complete last time but I think even with a slight reservation about his well being, Fourpointone looks the winner as he ticks every other box. 11/4 Bet 365, 1 pt.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 2.40 Towcester 16 runners eye up the £3,253 carrot dangling at the end of 3m 100 yd and the ones with winning form around 25f are Sharp Belline (25f), Tomillielou (27f), Blunham Hill (26f), Follow the Flow (25-29f), Mr Ironman (25f), Walton Way (26f), Lonesome Boatman (24f). Sharp Belline is a former Sue Smith horse that has won off two stone higher in the past. Now 12, he is regressing, but he put in arguably his best effort for some time at Hexham last time out, albeit over hurdles, and he does have winning chase form in the past. He was running in better races with Smith so now dropped down into class 5, 0-85, company, he may have a chance in what looks a poor race. On his first start for his current trainer he led for part of the way before fading and perhaps he does want a little bit more cut than this. The RP's live reporter has hinted there may be further rain though, so despite his obvious limitations I'm not ruling him out. Tomillielou has won off 6 lb higher in the past and has been dropped 7 lbs from his last run at Exeter when he was held up in touch but never really made an impact and finished 7th. In his favour, he is likely to stay and his sole win came on good ground. Blunham Hill is a course and distance winner who won here off 8 lb lower in October. Although he has won off higher marks in the past, he may struggle off 79 now as he was well beaten off only 1 lb higher a couple of times before Christmas and he also pulled up at the track when last seen. Follow the Flow is 30 lbs lower than when winning here four years ago but he is winless since. He best effort for some time came in January when 4th at Hereford when 15 lbs out of the handicap but he struggled at Folkestone next time out and pulled up at Chepstow when last seen. Mr Ironman is back down to his last winning mark (71) and was a CD winner here in 2007. His record since is very patchy though and he has only completed two of his last six starts so is passed over. Walton Way is dropped 3 lbs from his last run when pulling up at Warwick so is 20 lb lower than when winning at Plumpton last April. He has never really gone well at this track though, even if he is proven to stay. Lonesome Boatman won a point to point five years ago and has something to prove after poor efforts in two chase handicap starts in his last two. Suggested bets: Sharp Belline 11/1 Paddy, 0.5 pt Tomillielou 11/1 William Hill, 0.5 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases In the 2.40 at Towcester Tomillielou and Sharp Belline both spearheaded the attack but faded away and were well beaten in the end. There was some joy in the 5.00 at Taunton though when Fourpointone returned a comfortable 5/2 winner at SP (11/4 adv) to get things back on track. There are three 3m+ handicap chases today to get stuck into. 2.25 Carlisle 11 runners line up for this novices chase and the ones with winning form around the 25f trip are Cornerback (23f), Toy Gun (25f), Chernik (24f), Garleton (26f) and Indy Mood (24f). Cornerback hails from the Nicky Richards yard and is 6 lb higher than when winning a novices handicap chase at Kelso last time out. She recovered from a blunder to win last time and that was the first time she had really taken to fences, and it conincided with her handicap debut. There could be more to come after only a 6 lb rise. Toy Guy is interesting with Timmy Murphy booked for Howard Johnson, despite the fact the horse has pulled up on both of his last two starts. He was a dual course and distance winner last year off 13 lb lower, but he has had his ground the last twice and not fared well. He is due to be dropped 2 lbs in the future and may need more cut than this, so is passed over. Chernik won a maiden hurdle at Hexham last year but hasn't really taken off in this sphere, finishing a well beaten sixth in a Newcastle beginners chase and then pulling up when last seen at Wetherby. Garleton is ridden by the useful conditional Tjade Collier for Sue Smith and is 7 lbs higher than when winning at Catterick last time out. He looks to have a fair record over fences and is probably worth another go off this sort of mark as his failed attempts in the past came on softer ground, his recent win came on good ground. Indy Mood races from 4 lb out of the handicap and is yet to contest a chase handicap. A triple winner over hurdles, he has had just the two starts over fences though and there may be more to come. Both of his starts have come in novices events, so now sent handicapping he may have hope of finding a race soon. He is effectively running off 84 here, and has won off 114 over hurdles to draw some sort of comparison. Suggested bets: Cornerback -4/1 Bet 365, 0.45 pt Garleton - 3/1 William Hill, 0.4 pt Indy Mood - 13/2 Skybet, 0.15 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 4.45 Carlisle 12 runners in this this 3m 2f 0-95 handicap chase. The ones with winning form around the trip are Supreme's Legacy (24f), Getinbybutonlyjust (25f), Nelliedonethat (24f), Cute N You Know it (25f), Jacksonville (25f), Baker Flinn (24f), Ikemba (26f) and Jballingall (27f),. Supreme's Legacy is looking to win over fences for the first time in eleven attempts here as all three of his wins came over hurdles, the last of which was three years ago. He does have placed form to his name in chase handicaps but the margin of defeat has been large the last twice. He was third over course and distance last time out but was outpaced. Getinbybutonlyjust won off 7 lb higher in a novices chase at Ayr a couple of years ago but hasn't won since. He was rated 101 just before the turn of the year though and has been knocking on the door since his mark was lowered. Tjade Collier claims a useful three to give him every chance although he must improve a shaky course record. Nelliedonethat is 6 lbs higher than when winning at Newcaslte in January and although that win came over two and a half miles, other pieces of form suggest he stays this far. He ran well enough at the track when behind Toy Gun before and has a better chance of staying here with drier ground. Cute N You Know it makes her handicap chase debut here and the 6 yo has made little impression in two novices events to date. Jacksonville is 8 lbs lower than when winning at Kelso three years ago but hasn't won since. He is dropped back in trip now and that could revive his fortunes a little. He's ran here plenty of times now though and made the frame only once. Baker Flinn won an Irish point three years ago but has been soundly beaten in chase handicaps on these shores. He was well behind Ikemba, latest, and his mark is due to drop 7 lbs NTO too. Ikemba finished a close second to Sabrelight over CD last time out and that was a much better effort from him after pulling up at Uttoxeter when seen previously in November. He has only had two starts over fences so there could be more to come for this relatively unexposed sort who is running off the same mark as last time out (although is actually 1 lb worse off as out of the handicap here). Jballingall has won off 8 lb higher in the past but is now racing off the same as last winning mark, although that did come several years ago. He finished an encouraging 7th of 13 returning from a massive break when reappearing at Musselbrugh last time out, and with the benefit of that run he may no longer fade away here. He'll get the trip well and although 1 lb out of the handicap, is weighted to go close if all is well. Suggested bets: Gettinbybutonlyjust - 13/2 Sky, 0.15 pt Nelliedonethat - 13/2 Bet 365, 0.15 pt Ikemba - 13/2 Sky, 0.58 pt Jballingall - 8/1 Hills, 0.12 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 3.20 Towcester This is a 3m 110yd handicap chase for horses rated 0-110. 11 line up and the ones with winning form around the trip are Dusty Dane (23f), Thedreamstillalive (25f), Carry Duff (27f), Earcomesannie (26f), Moustique de l'isle (28f), Freeline Fury (27f), Sandymac (24f), Crank Hill (24f) and Superrollercoaster (25f). Dusty Dane carries top-weight off 11-12 and is due to be dropped 5 lbs for his next run. He may be in the grips of the handicapper in the meantime as his only chase wins to date have been in non-handicaps. Thdreamstillalive is 5 lbs higher than when winning at Folkestone in December. He ran well off this mark last time out when narrowly beaten at Sandown and he has multiple wins going this way around. Carry Duff is a CD winner and only 4 lbs above his last winning mark. However, he was a little to prove on recent efforts having failed to complete two of his last three runs. Earcomesannie is 7 lb higher than her win at Plumpton in October. She placed at Stratford off this mark next time out but then fell at Doncaster when last seen. She has gone well here in the past and has a very solid record when she does complete, so can get involved if confidence is restored after that last fall. Moustique de l'isle is on a winning mark and won off 101 at Bangor several years ago. A more recent win came off 95 at Carlisle in November but since then his efforts have been questionanble and he is passed over. Was well beaten by Freeline Fury lto. Freeline Fury is on the hat-trick but has been rasied 9 lbs from his last win. He is a course winner and is proven to see out the trip so there may be plenty more to come after only 8 career runs over fences. Sandymac is due to be dropped 5 lbs next time out and has been slaughtered in recent runs. Crank Hill's sole win came in an Irish point-to-point and he has been well beaten in all handicap chase starts. His mark is dropped 6 lbs from his last run but others appeal more. Superrollercoaster has won off 13 lbs higher in the past but seems unlikely to replicate that form and is due to be dropped 6 lbs for his next run. He went well here in a novices race several years ago but is opposed on the basis of weight. Suggested bets: Thedreamstillalive - 12/1 Bet 365 0.3 pt Earcomesannie - 8/1 Skybet 0.4 pt Freeline Fury - 8/1 Blue Sq 0.4 pt note: Freeline Fury is only going to run if there is rain, so if he pulls out, the returned stake is to be distriubuted 50/50 between the other two (assume at SP for P/L calcs).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases The 3.20 at Towcester was the race I was most looking forward to yesterday and although I suspected Earcomesannie may be withdrawn, I didn't expect the other two to be too. It wasn't a bad day elsewhere though with Garleton and Indy Mood managing a 1-2 in the first race played in at Carlisle and Nelliedonethat picking up the prize in the other. I was close to getting a forecast in that race too, and Benbeoch only challenged right at the death to relegate Getinbybutonlyjust (headed at the last) into third. There is only one suitable race for today and that is the Independent Newspaper Veterans' Handicap chase at Ascot. 4.40 Ascot 12 runners line up for this 3m handicap chase and as per the rules no horse is younger than ten. All have winning form around the trip - Hobbs Hill (21f), Ungaro (24f), Oscar Park (25f), Church Island (25f), Oneway (21f), Out the Black (26f), Cool Roxy (25f), Bleu Superb (23f), Briery Fox (25f), El Vaquero (22f), Lord Killeshanra (24f) and Kitski (25f). Hobbs Hill has the champion on board and is rated 5 lb higher than the rest of the field. Phillip Hobbs' gelding has been running in some decent chases this year, running in three Graded races, and although never better than 8/15 (btn 29l) will appreciate this step down in class here. He's won on good ground before, the only slight concern is that he's never won beyond 2m 5f, but other than that he looks to have a solid chance. Ungaro, like Hobbs Hill, has never won a chase handicap but he is another that has been competing in some decent chases, finishing a decent second to Big Fella Thanks in the Skybet chase at Doncaster over this trip recently. Keith Reverley's horse was behind Out the Black at Doncaster in a handicap last time though. This drop back in trip should see him get a little closer to that rival and he is 4 lbs better off here and that is before you take into account Rhys Flint's 5 lb allowance. Oscar Park hails from the inform David Arbuthnot yard and has made a promising start to his chase career, picking up two novices events last month. He raced in the RSA at the festival when last seen but never showed any fluency and was outclassed. This is easier, but he will have to improve on his jumping nevertheless. Church Island is 8 lbs higher than when winning a Doncaster handicap last month and ran well enough when second to lively National hopeful Darkness at Newbury when last seen, battling back to finish a clear second. He is versatile ground wise, is sure to get the trip and has won a couple of times going right handed before. Oneway is 8 lbs lower than when winning at Sandown but that win came four years ago and the 12 yo's rating seems fair now. A three length second to Master Medic at this track in December shows he acts around here and once again Aidan Coleman takes off 3 lbs. However, he is less likely to get this trip than many. Out the Black won over course and distance in April and confirmed he is in good heart when beating Ungaro and several others at Doncaster last time out. He has been raised only 3 lbs for that win and although he scraped home last time he was hampered and may infact be better over three miles here. Richard Johnson returns to the saddle and he looks sure to go well again. Cool Roxy is 3 lbs higher than his win at Fakenham last month and has a tremendous record at that track. He was 5th on his last start here though when behind Out the Black. Bleu Superbe is the old boy of the field at 14 and is 2 lbs higher than his win here in November. That came over shorter though and he is another that may fade out in the dying stages as the majority of his form has come over shorter. Briery Fox is 2 lbs lower than his win at Worcester in '06 but is another that has been put in his place by Out the Black last April. El Vaquero is yet to score in handicap company and hasn't won since picking up a Grade 1 novices chase at Sandown four years ago. He fell on this last start at this track - another in that aforementioned April contest. Lord Killeshanra pulled up in a moderate Sandown chase when last seen and was 100/1 on his last start here when last of 9 behind Kauto Star. With only one win to his name, others appeal plenty more. Kitski has been raised 7 lbs for winning at Huntingdon last time out and Ferdy Murphy's gelding recovered from several early blunders to take that race last time out. Ground and trip won't cause any problems but he does take a leap in class from 0-115 to 0-145 company and perhaps that could rule out a follow up? Suggested bets Out the Black - 5/1 VC Bet, 0.6 pt Ungaro - 7/1 Betfred, 0.15 pt Hobbs Hill - 6/1 Hills, 0.15 pt Church Island - 9/1 Sky, 0.1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

4.40 Ascot Suggested bets Out the Black - 5/1 VC Bet, 0.6 pt Ungaro - 7/1 Betfred, 0.15 pt Hobbs Hill - 6/1 Hills, 0.15 pt Church Island - 9/1 Sky, 0.1 pt

That race proved a little frustrating. Richard Johnson really had to get to work on Out The Black, sent off the 7/2 fav, and despite clouting the second last he battled on magnificently, touching down infront of Hobbs Hill and Briery Fox after the last. Although Hobbs Hill unshipped McCoy at that fence he was only a saver and it was Out the Black I was banking on for a 2.6 pt profit from the race but agonisingly, he was headed in the final strides as Briery Fox reversed their form from last April. A very frustrating result indeed getting the pockets picked like that, but to be fair, Nelliedonethat only just hung on for me yesterday so its swings and roundabouts as they say. Another thing I'd like to add - my main ante-post bet for the national, Character Building, no longer goes to Aintree. He is reportedly lame in a hoof which is sickening news as he would have had an outstanding chance in that race in my opinion. That is 0.8 pts down the swanny for the race but stakes were upped to 2 pt for the greatest steeplechase on earth so I still have 60 % of the stake to ride on Kilbeggan Blade, Darkness, Chelsea Harbour and Priests Leap and I stand to win equal amounts on each, so its just a case of firing one less dart at the bullseye now. There are no 3m+ handicap chases tomorrow so its a day off NH racing for me tomorrow and all eyes on Doncaster.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases I didn't have time to study the staying chase at Kelso yesterday but if I'm being honest I wouldn't have picked that winner. I would have probably gone for the second as the main bet and tried to save on a few others. There is just the one 3m+ handicap chase today, from Newcastle. 4.10 Newcastle Ten runners are declared for this 3m handicap chase for runners rated 0-105. The ones with winning form around the trip are Trisons Star (25f), Scott's Mill (25f), Presenting Alf (21f), Sound of Cheers (23f) and Day du Roy (22f). Trisons Star won off 9 lbs higher over course and distance in February last year but hasn't run to any sort of form since. He is a triple course and distance winner but fell here last month and pulled up over this CD when last seen so is a bit of a risky proposition here. Scott's Mill has never won a handicap chase and Sue Smith's gelding has only one win to his name from 20 starts. However, in five runs over fences he has hinted slightly at ability, and wasn't beaten far at Sedgfield off 1 lb higher in December. His sole win came on good ground and with the yard in form he could go well. Presenting Alf is 4 lbs lower than when winning at Worcester in April '07 but he hasn't won since and may be better over shorter. He is another of Sue Smith's and with Tjade Collier taking off a useful three it will be interesting to see how both are priced up. Sound of Cheers has won off 36 lbs higher in the past (2004) although his latest win in May last year at Kelso was off this mark and its clear the 12 yo veteran is on the decline. He was 6th at Southwell when last seen when behind Day Du Roy and finished in a similar sort of position at Sedgefield. However, he was outpaced that day, and a step up in trip could see him in a better light. He is thoroughly exposed after 61 chase starts but there is nothing in this line up that looks open to significant improvement and he could put his chase experience to good use. Day Du Roy is 6 lbs out of the handicap so is effectively 45 lbs lower than his highest ever winning mark (2004). His last win came in April last year off 86 and he was rated 75 for his last run so is dropped 11 lbs for this (5 lb taking into account the fact he is out of the handicap). He was 6th over course and distance in November and was outpaced at Southwell when last seen so is another than is probably worth a go over 3m today. Suggested bets Scott's Mill - 4/1 Sporting Bet, 0.4 pt Trisons Star - 8/1 Skybet, 0.15 pt Sound of Cheers - 14/1 Hills, 0.45 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Yesterday's bets were no where near coming off, apologies if anyone followed. I'm not interested in the jumps racing today but have been looking over the Grand National again and am having another bet in that race. I've bet 2 pts in this thread already and am now added a 3rd.... 1pt win Black Appalachi 16/1 Bet 365. His price offput me last week (12/1) but he has been drifting slightly and at 16/1 I want to make him my main bet of the race. I think he probably is better on soft ground but will take a chance anyway and hope they give the track plenty of water. Having gone through the trends again now we have a better idea as to who is likely to line up (and with NRNB available) the three I like most are Black Appalachi, Kilbeggan Blade and Darkness. BA's course form and recent win in graded races just edges it for me over the less experienced pair though.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 3.25 Aintree 18 runners line up for this class 2 chase handicap over 25f. The ones with winning form around the trip are Star de Mohaison (26f), Ashley Brook (22f), Turko (25f), Tot O'Whiskey (25f), Aimigayle (25f), According to John (25f), Leading Contender (24f), Island Flyer (23f), Peter Pole (24f), Pretty Star (26f), Alexanderthegreat (26f), Oakfield Legend (25f) and Mont Misere (25f). The presence of Star de Mohaison in the line up means seven of these race from out of the handicap, although it remains to be seen whether the Nicholls horse runs as he unseated in the Totesport Bowl the other day. Assuming he lines up, 'Maison' would have a decent chance here. Winner of the 2006 RSA he was blighted by injury problems and never saw a racecourse in 2007 but bounced back in good style when blowing away a few cobwebs at Haydock and then finishing a decent second to Mon Mome off 3 lb lower at Cheltenham in December. Heavy ground proved his undoing at that same track in January and he ran below par in the Gold Cup. He barely got into the race on Thursday before unseating Ruby at the first, but this course and distance winner is handicapped to go close if all is well here. Ashley Brook is only 3 lb higher than when winning at Exeter in November and also has course winning form from 2005. He was seventh in the Queen Mother chase last time out and perhaps he will appreciate the return to handicaps, although he must improving his jumping from his last handicap start (Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham). The ground is fine, although he hasn't yet won beyond 22f. Turko won a Sandown chase in Dec '07 but hasn't won since and has never won in handicap company. He was well beaten off 9 lb higher in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and even off 2 lb lower was well beaten at Cheltenham when last seen. He is a course winner but others appeal more. Tot O' Whiskey is just about in the handicap proper but is another that is yet to make his mark in handicaps. He won a novices chase at Carlisle in October on heavy ground but was well beaten on his handicap debut at Cheltenham last time out. He was 9th on his only run here and may prefer a more undulating track. Aimigayle races off 134 and is yet to run in a handicap chase. She has won three of her last five races, (2-4 over fences) and won a novices race at Newbury when last seen. She has form going left handed and on flat tracks and trip and ground are fine. She should run a good race. According to John returned from a lengthy absence when 4th of 9 at Sandown last time out and does have some decent bits of chase form in novices races. May be best watched for now though whilst be builds up his fitness. Leading Contender races off 132 for his handicap chase debut and won a beginner chase at Taunton by a wide margin last time out. He should iron out his jumping errors in time as he's only had the three runs over fences, and proved at Stratford he acts on a flack track. Island Flyer is officially 16 lbs higher than when winning at Newbury in March but is 1 lb out of the handicap. He ran a cracker in the Badger Ales at Wincanton when beaten by only a nose off 125 and although well beaten in the Hennessy when last seen, is open to further improvement. Perhaps the last race came too soon for him, could go well. Peter Pole has been a revelation for Tim Vaughan, hacking up at Exteter on his first start in this country and this French recruit then followed up under a penalty when last seen at Southwell. He was 11 lbs well in that day so it wasn't a suprise to see him win at cramped odds and whilst he must improve to score in this company, he seems to be going the right way and was worth much more than the winning margin suggested last time. Pretty Star is 2 lbs out of the handicap and officially 4 lbs higher than when a decent second to Character Building in the Kim Muir last time out. He's never won a handicap chase but has won three other races over fences and looks to be improving. Alexanderthegreat is 9 lbs higher than his last win and on top of that is 5 lbs wrong in the weights. He unseated in the Kim Muir when last seen anothers appeal more. Oakfield Legend is 3 lbs higher than when second to Hermano Cordobes at Newton Abbot in July but is 10 lbs out of the handicap here. He returned from a break to win an amateurs riders race in convincing fashion last time out but looks to have a tough task on these terms if Maison lines up. Mont Misere is a veteran and although has form abroad has done little on these shores. He's 11 lbs out of the handicap and has pulled up on two of this last three starts. All in all, this is a very open race and there are at least half a dozen with a decent shout. I'll stick to just three here though. Suggested bets: Aimigayle 16/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt Pretty Star 11/1 Bet 365, 0.2 pt Peter Pole 7/1 Bet 365, 0.55 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Just had a quick can over the results from the past few weeks - they are slowing just over 11 pts profit, and a little over 50 % yield from 22 bets. Will post up the latest table tomorrow when Aintree is over and this race below has been settled. 4.50 Chepstow 18 runners are declared for the John Smiths Handicap Chase for runners rated 0-95. The ones with winning form around the 3m trip are Major Euro (21f), Deep Pockets (26f), The Abbots Habit (22f), Outside Investor (22f), Great Tsar (24f), Arceye (25f), Top Dawn (26f), Tarsus (24f), Merry Storm (26f), Jacarado (24f) and Walton Way (26f). Major Euro is one of three carrying top weight and is rated 3 lbs lower than the ceiling. That means he is 7 lbs lower than when winning at Newbury a year ago but he hasn't won since. He was beaten by 11 lengths off 3 lbs higher at Warwick when last seen. He never looked like winning though and despite a drop in class here, may find a few others too good. Deep Pockets is also rated 92 and is a relatively inexperienced chaser with only three starts to his name in this sphere. He's been well beaten on all occassions though and despite a 3 lb drop from last time out, is passed over. The Abbots Habit makes his chase debut but recent efforts over hurdles hardly inspire you with confidence. Outside Investor is 13 lbs higher than when winning at Newton Abbot in July but he was beaten by only a length at that same track off this mark in August. He returns from a break now though and seems to have done all of his racing at Newton Abbot of late so others appeal more. Great Tsar has been dropped 4 lbs after being well beaten at Stratford when last seen. His sole win in 20 career starts came in an Irish point although he did run respectably at this track in a novices race in November. Arceye won over course and distance last April as part of a hat-trick (two course wins) and is 4 lbs higher than the last of those wins here. This 12 yo hasn't won for a while but his mark is dropping and his best effort for a while came last time out when well beaten, but over an inadequate trip. Top Dawn is 5 lbs higher than when winning at Hereford last May but his recent form is uninspiring. At least he managed to complete over course and distance last time out when returning from a break and with his course form, he may have a squeak. Tarsus came close off 77 on his handicap debut at Hereford in January and was raised to 85 for his last run when 2/14 (btn 14l) at this track over shorter. He had no chance with the winner but his previous form suggested that trip may have been unsufficient and back up to 3m here and only up 1 lb in the handicap he looks one of the more likely ones. Merry Storm last won a handicap chase (novices) three years ago and as a result his mark has been dropping. He's dropped a pound for finishing 4th of 17 at this track last time out on his return from a break and is thus a stone below his last winning mark. Jacaradowas second off this mark over this trip at Kempton last time out and is 9 lbs lower than when winning at Towcester in November. All his wins have come going right handed which is a little offputting though. Walton Way is 17 lbs lower than when winning at Plumpton last April and although he hasn't won since, wasn't beaten far at all last time out at Towcester when a close third. He's raised 3 lbs for that now but is weighted to reverse CD form with Arceye from April last year (to the tune of 20 lbs) and at least he has acted at the track before. Suggested bets: Tarsus - 15/2 Paddy, 0.7 pt Walton Way - 7/1 SJ, 0.15 pt Arceye - 8/1 SJ, 0.15 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 4.50 Hexham 12 runners line up to contest the £5k prize. The ones with winning form around the 3m 1f trip are Silly Wupple (25f), Catch the Perk (25f), Overlady (28f), Crackadee (24f), Carry Duff (27f), Darina's Boy (25f), Saddler's Way (25f), South Bronx (24f), Stoneriggs Merc (24f), Emerald Destiny (24f) and Korelo (27f). Silly Wupple made a flying start to his chase career winning on his first two runs over fences, the first in a handicap off 105. He then struggled when pulling up on his next two runs at Leicester and Ayr but bounced back with a more convincing display last time out at Uttoxeter 22 days ago. He is eased 2 lbs and could improve again. Catch the Perk is back down to his last winning mark (110) from at Perth in July '07. He won here over hurdles and sees out three miles fine although he is vulnerable to an up and coming type as his mark is slowly declining. Overlady is 7 lbs higher than when winning over further at Carlise two months ago but is lightly raced and improving. She's started life in chases well, winning 2-3 and she ran well at this track in a hunters chase last April. Although beaten here over four miles when last seen, the drop back in trip could help although its not known whether she will handle conditions this quick. Crackadee is 8 lbs lower than when winning at Kelso last May but may need slower ground and has been well held in recent starts. Carry Duff is 2 lbs higher than his win on quick ground at Towcester last May. However, he's pulled up and unseated on his last two runs so is passed over. Darina's Boy is a 13 yo experienced chaser, 5 lbs lower than when winning at Worcester last year. However, he was held off only 1 lb higher over this trip at Newcastle last time out. Saddler's Way has just two starts to his name, both over fences. The first came in a novices hunters chase in May last year and he built on that debut run to win a beginners chase at Ayr last month. That looked a poor race, with only four runners, and this demands more. South Bronx is racing off the same mark as when successful at Perth in September. He was well beaten off this mark at Musselburgh in Feb but that was off a higher mark and last time out when his mark was eased, he may have been outpaced over two and a half miles. Stoneriggs Merc placed a couple of times at Catterick late last year off this sort of mark and is a good ground and distance winner not handicapped out of it. Emerald Destiny is 4 lbs out of the handicap, in effect cancelling out his declining mark from last time out, when well held, and others appeal more. Korelo is 5 lbs out of the handicap and although much lower than when winning at Chepstow off 120 three years ago, isn't up to that level now. He was fourth over these fences when last seen over four miles, with Overlady just behind, but he is probably better over further (third in the Eider several years ago) and recent efforts over this sort of trip or shorter temper enthusiasm. Suggested bets: Silly Wupple - 9/1 Hills, 0.35 pt Overlady - 6/1 Bet 365, 0.39 pt Stoneriggs Merc - 14/1 Skybet, 0.07 pt South Bronx - 22/1 Skybet, 0.05 pt Saddler's Way - 13/2 Hills, 0.14 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 2.40 Southwell 11 runners line up for this class 4 handicap chase over 3m 2f. The ones with winning form around the trip are Marufo (25f), Joyryder (26f), Lahinch Lad (26f), Another Club Royal (29f), Curly Spencer (24f) and Kercabellec (23f). It has to be said this is an awful race and a quick look at the ratings tells exactly that - the OR's of the bottom four are 64, 68, 69 and 70 and with two runners hitting the ceiling rating at the other end of the handicap (this is an 0-100 race) there is quite a big difference in 'class' between these. Half of the field race from out of the handicap as a result. Marufo is one of those top rated and won over this sort of trip over hurdles at Aintree last year. He's had three chase starts and done very little to get enthusiastic about. Joyryder is joint-top weight and won over this trip in a novices chase at Warwick last year. He was 4th of 6 at Leicester off 115 just before Christmas which was the closest he has come to landing a handicap and although behind Marufo at Newbury, will benefit from this sharp drop in his rating and he has shown better jumping ability than that rival to date. Admittedly, his jumping let him down when last seen at Warwick but he was running in an 0-135, over 3f further and off a 10 lb higher mark, so I think a better run can be expected here. Lahinch Lad is back down to his winning mark of 2006 at Wincanton but hasn't won since. He has been building up his fitness nicely this year though and his best effort of the year came at Huntingdon last time out when 3rd of 9. However, he was beaten by a wide margin and he will probably find one too good. Another Club Royal is the proven stayer in the field having won up to 29f. Although ridiculously well handicapped on the pick of his form this 10 yo looks on the decline and has been soundly beaten on all starts around the turn of the year. Curly Spencer is remarkably aged 15! He has only raced twice in the last three years and is hard to recommend on that basis. Kercabellec is 5 lbs out of the handicap and officially 25 lbs lower than his last win, at Market Rasen in '07. He is another on the decline judging by recent efforts. All in all this is a poor contest and Joyryder appeals most. Lahinch Lad isn't without hope and will be my saver. Suggested bets: Joyryder - 5/1 Boylesports, 0.88 pt win Lahinch Lad - 8/1 Bet 365, 0.12 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases I've not had much time for the jumps of late with all the flat thats been on, but both of the above two races go down as losers, taking figures to +9.94 pts profit (37 % ROI). I've got a couple of bets for the forthcoming Irish and Scottish Nationals I'd like to add. Irish National - Fairyhouse - Easter Monday Rare Bob - He has some really impressive bits of chase form in novice races - a short head second to Trafford Lad on his debut at Punchestown, a 4th to Made in Taipan next time out (over an inadequate trip and having made a bad mistake at last), then a 3rd to Trafford Lad and Forpadydeplaster in a Grade 1 novices race at Fairyhouse. He was then dropped back down in class and won over two and a half miles at Punchestown before finishing fourth to subsequent RSA winner Cooldine, Arkle winner Forpadydeplaster and Trafford Lad at Leopardstown, a piece of form that looks all the better in the aftermath of Cheltenham. He was then dropped in class but stepped up in trip (to 3m) for last run at Navan and jumped and stayed on well. He has to prove himself over further in this race but has only had six chase starts and could have a chance off such a low weight (10-5). Quite a few of the recent winners of this race have won from out the handicap so the fact he is from near the weights isn't that offputting and novices seem to do well. Trainer Dessie Hughes said after his Navan win he is indifferent to the going and jumps and stays well. He said he may go for this race or a novices race instead, but at the minute he only entry he holds is for the Irish National. I'm planning on upping stakes to 1 pt for this race but as of yet just have 0.5 pt at 16/1 (Hills) from Tuesday when posted in the Irish National thread. Scottish National - Ayr - 18th April This isn't a strong trends race as is the English national and the formbook was ripped up somewhat when Iris de Balme, racing from almost two stones out of the handicap, landed the race at odds of 66/1 last year. However, horses aged 7-10, that finished in the first five last time out and have winning form over three miles plus seem a sensible set to focus on for closer form study. There are three I like the look of and have backed. Character Building was my main fancy for the English National defore he was found to be lame in one hoof and swerved the race. John Quinn's gelding has been highly sought after following his win at the Cheltenham festival and although he hasn't won beyond 26f, he did place in the 2007 National Hunt Cup so should get the trip. The application of a first time tongue tie brought about improvement in the Kim Muir last time out and he could have suitable ground again for this race. He is up 6 lbs from his last run but is improving and could feasibly defy that rise. Mergio won the Eider chase at Newcastle last time out so is expected to stay four miles here too. He is also a bit of a course specialist having won two of this three starts over Ayr's fences. Although up 8 lbs from his last run he is fairly lightly raced after only 13 starts and has won on a variety of ground (Gd, St, Hvy) and with proven stamina I think he warrants a bet. I backed Russian Trigger in the Midlands Grand National last time out and although he made several errors, he underlined his staying credentials to follow up his win in the Kent National at Folkestone (a race won by Iris de Balme last year) to notch up a double that day. He is up 8 lbs now but is going the right way and after only ten career runs it would be disappointing if there wasn't more to come from him over these marathon trips. Odds with William Hill and stakes wagered: Character Building 14/1 - 0.3 pt Russian Trigger 12/1 - 0.35 pt Merigo 12/1 - 0.35 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 4.40 Haydock 11 runners line up for this 3m 4f trip and the ones with winning form around 28f are Florida Dream (28f), Huka Lodge (28f), Go West (26f), Peut Etre Sivola (26f), BallyGalley Bob (29f), Garleton (25f), Wizards Dust (26f), Finzi (30f) and Tomillielou (27f). Of those, the ones that make most appeal are Garleton and Go West. I backed Garleton last time out and he's won both starts for Sue Smith now. Those two wins have come in novices handicap chases and he is up 9 lbs here, but he looks to be improving and with the yard known to do well with their chasers I'm keeping faith. Go West will strip fitter for his last run here over 3m and is running off a mark 7 lbs lower than his last win - at Southwell in May. He's proven up to 26f so more likely to stay than some of these, has his ground and stayed on last time to suggest this trip is worth a go. Garleton - 7/2 Boyle, 0.75 pt Go West - 8/1 hills, 0.25 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 4.30 Carlisle 3m 100yds is the trip here and I'm giving another chance to Ngong Hills, second at Haydock last time out. He's a consistent sort, has been dropped 1 lb and is a distance winner. He's got ideal ground and will come on for that last run so I'm taking on the fav who wasn't totally convincing last time out, even if he is open to plenty of improvement. 9/2 Bet 365, 1 pt win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases no joy yesterday, two poor picks, Garleton 3rd and Ngong Hills blundering early and finishing back in 7th. Back to the good stuff tomorrow with a few more final bets on the Irish National (already had 0.5 on Rare Bob as above) to top the stake up to 1 pt. One Cool Cookie - gave 10 lbs and a beating to Arbor Supreme and is better off back in a handicap for this. Jumps well and proven up to 26f. Has an extra 3f to contend with here but I think he's overpriced at 22/1 (Bet 365) given Arbor Supreme is less than half of that (even if that rival is proven over further). Garde Champetre - out and out stayer, effervescent and ultra reliable, winning at the Cheltenham festival over 31f to follow up his win in a cross country race prior to that. Will be plugging on when others have packed up and gone home and 14/1 seems fair. Final bets: Rare Bob 16/1 (post previously) One Cool Cookie 22/1 Bet 365, 0.2 pt Garde Champetre 14/1 Bet 365, 0.3 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases The flat is proving a little disappointing for me at the minute so switching back to this for today. Just to bring the figures up to date.... No. of bets: 31 Overall profit: +5.94 pts ROI: +19 % I was pleased with how Rare Bob ran in the Irish National, he ended up in the places at least wasn't that far off. The Scottish National selections were annoying as non made it to Ayr so there wasn't even an interest in the race. 4.50 Fontwell Just six runners line up for this 3m 2f 110yd handicap chase for horses rated 0-110. £4,554 awaits the winner. The runners with winning form around the trip are Rebel Melody (28f), Sesame Rambler (27f), Noble Action (24f), Earcomesannie (26f) and Lahinch Lad (26f). Rebel Melody has been raised 9 lbs for his win over 28f on soft ground at Warwick last time out. He has a good completion rate in chases and appreciated the step up from 3m for his last run. He jumped well and although stepping up slightly from a 0-105 to a 0-110 here and racing on faster ground, did win on GF in his early years. Sesame Rambler is a course and distance winner from March this year and is 8 lbs higher now. I backed this one last time out and was sickened to see it fall at the first fence, so he has to rebuild his confidence here, although he clearly has ability and has won 2 of his 6 starts over fences and may have more to offer in handicaps. He seems quite versatile ground wise. Noble Action ran well on his first two starts in handicap chases but has failed to complete the last twice, one of which was on a comeback run, and I'm passing over. Earcomesannie is 5 lbs higher than when winning at Plumpton in October and although she never looked like winning last time out, at least completing after falling in a class 3 handicap chase at Doncaster on her previous start. She has the stamina for this trip and won mind if the ground quickens as she is a GF winner. Her mark has been dropped another two lbs here and may be ready so strike again. Lahinch Lad won off 6 lb higher three years ago at Wincanton and has seen his mark slashed 6 lbs from his last run at Southwell. He made a few mistakes that day so first time cheekpieces are fitted today. He looks on a decent mark and both his wins have come on fast ground, but has been well beaten on three previous visits here. Overall, I think Rebel Melody should run another big race over this sort of trip if he lines up. I seem to remember him pulling out at Wincanton not so long ago, but if he lines up he's my bet, ahead of Earcomesannie and Sesame Rambler. Trainer Charlie Mann's form is another plus. 11/4 Skybet, 1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

4.50 Fontwell Rebel Melody has been raised 9 lbs for his win over 28f on soft ground at Warwick last time out. He has a good completion rate in chases and appreciated the step up from 3m for his last run. He jumped well and although stepping up slightly from a 0-105 to a 0-110 here and racing on faster ground, did win on GF in his early years. ..... Overall, I think Rebel Melody should run another big race over this sort of trip if he lines up. I seem to remember him pulling out at Wincanton not so long ago, but if he lines up he's my bet, ahead of Earcomesannie and Sesame Rambler. Trainer Charlie Mann's form is another plus. 11/4 Skybet, 1 pt

:nana Get in there my son!

[jtw1]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Nothing better than a winner to boost the confidence mate :ok. Maybe worthwhile sticking with this for a while , esp as the ground firms up and more of those suited by that will be making an appearance .

[alexmac]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Nice one mate :)

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases a 3m3f and a 3m7f at Perth Friday, can't wait for your analysis Fintron, personally looking at Merigo and Laertes initially though still got a lot of work to go. Well done and good luck!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Thanks for the comments guys. Diamond, I'm having a crack at the national race, but the Mergio race is a hurdle so I'm skipping that. I've come to the same conclusions as you in the 4.30 though, three clearly stand out in the stamina stakes don't they. 4.30 Perth 18 runners go to post for the Press & Journal Highland National Handicap Chase. The race, set to be run on good ground providing the weather stays unchanged, is over 3m 7f and is for horses aged 5 yo upwards, rated 0-115. The runners with winning form around this 31f trip are Laertes (31f), Ballygally Bob (29f), Finzi (30f) and Another Rum (33f). Laertes is rated 1 lb lower than the ceiling and scrapes into this race as he was running off a mark of 119 three runs ago, when he pulled up at Carlisle. He has had two runs since over hurdles so perhaps connections have been aiming for this race with a plan in the back of their minds as he looks to retain his crown following a an 8/1 success 12 months ago. He is 6 lbs higher this time around, but Ollie Greenall takes off 5 lbs to give him a chance and this eight year old may have more to offer over fences after 11 starts. Stamina obviously isn't an issue, but he would ideally prefer a bit of rain perhaps. Ballygalley Bob was the victim of unfortunate circumstances last time out at Haydock as the stray Florida Dream (who reopposes here) interefered with him and prompted him to unseat his rider at the sixth. Prior to that he had underlined his staying credentials with a win over 29f at Warwick on good ground off a 7 lb lower mark. He is another than has mainly raced on softer ground, but his too is only 8 and could have more to offer and the jockeys 3 lb claim also means he isn't handicapped out of things. Finzi is well handicapped on the pick of his form running off a mark of 97 here, bearing in mind he won off 4 lb higher (when had Florida Dream behind) at Bangor last year. That win came on heavy ground, which shows him to be a powerful stayer, and he did place on GF ground at Sedegfield in his younger years to suggest the ground may not necessarily rule him out. At 11 he lacks the scope for improvement of some of these, but his stamina will hold him in good stead against many doubtful stayers. Another Rum is another veteran at 11 and runs off 96 this afternoon. He was a winner in the 2005 Cheltenham festival in the NH Chase Cup over 33f so stamina isn't an issue for this one who competed in last years Scottish National and was 11th. His mark has dropped 5 lbs from his last run but he hasn't won for four years now and looks vulnerable to younger legs. Suggested bets: Ballygalley Bob - 10/1 Bet 365, 0.45 pt Laertes - 10/1 Bet 365, 0.4 pt Finzi - 25/1 Skybet, 0.15 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 7.45 Bangor This looks quite a competitive little race and most have winning form around the 3m 100y trip. However, the ones that stand out most are Mr Big, Marufo and Killard Point. Killard Point is a course and distance winner that is 6 lbs higher than when winning at Lingfield in March. He won here off 2 lb higher in December 2007 and should act on the ground. The trainer form is a little offputting though. Heather Dalton had a winner recently so has no such concerns and her Marufo was off the mark over fences at the fourth time of asking when last seen, winning on good ground at Southwell over 1.5f further. Both of his career wins have come on good ground now so he may not have been ideally served with cut at Newb, Hunt and Utt inbetween. He's 9 lbs higher for this but is quite unexposed and their could be more to come. Mr Big hails from the inform Charlie Mann yard, who saddled up Rebel Melody yesterday and have had 5 winners from 11 runners in the past fortnight, including this fellow, who won over 3m at Chepstow 11 days ago. He runs under a 7 lb penalty as a consequence, but looks to have a big chance as he is due to go up an extra 2 lbs in future. Fast ground (if it goes that way) isn't a problem judging by his Irish form (winner on GF) and he looks to have a consistent profile so is my main bet here. Suggested bets: Mr Big - 3/1 VC Bet, 0.75 pt Marufo - 7/2 VC Bet, 0.25 pt