Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 3.10 Sandown (Saturday) - Bet 365 Gold Cup Chase They race over 3m 5f 100y tomorrow and the runners with winning form around the trip are Darkness (27f), Kilbeggan Blade (30f), Lacdoudal (30f), Verasi (26f) and Zacharova (29f). Darkness was well backed prior to the Grand National and finished 13th that day, making several blunders which hampered his chances. However, he has bounced back and been running to a decent level of ability since missing the whole of 2007. He was a dual Group chase winner in 2006 and ran a big race at Newbury in February to show the ability is still there. He will stay all day long, has won at the track on his only previous visit and will handle the ground. He's 8 lbs above his last win. Kilbeggan Blade was another quite well supported prior to the National. He has had a terrific season for Tom George but pulled up before the 21st at Aintree. However, his stamina is assured as he won over 30f at this track in December and is unbeaten in two starts over CD. He's only 4 lb higher than his last chase win in the London National and has previously won on good ground so could go well at a price. Lacdoudal is another course and distance winner and is 12 lbs lower than when taking the race in 2006. Trainer Phillip Hobbs is in good form and he has been running respectably over shorter distances of late, including in the William Hill trophy at Cheltenham last time out. His mark is slowly declining and the 10 yo is vulnerable to progressive types, but he should give a good account, is used to competing in valuable chases and will relish the ground. Verasi is yet to win a chase handicap, although he has enjoyed success in non-handicaps over fences, winning a Grade 2 novices race in 2007 at Lingfield. He has pulled up on four of his last starts though, and isn't one for me. Zacharova sneaks into this race at the foot of the weights but is due to go up 7 lbs in future. Trainer Venetia Williams is in good form at present and the horse too is in good heart, winning the Mon Mome handicap chase at Cheltenham earlier in the month. He also has course winning form to his name, from February this year, and has won on a variety of ground so is another one considered. Final bets: Darkness - 20/1 Bet 365, 0.17 pt Kilbeggan Blade - 14/1 Hills, 0.23 pt Lacdoudal - 7/1 Hills, 0.44 pt Zacharova - 20/1 Hills, 0.16 pt 28.68

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Thanks for the comments guys. Diamond, I'm having a crack at the national race, but the Mergio race is a hurdle so I'm skipping that. I've come to the same conclusions as you in the 4.30 though, three clearly stand out in the stamina stakes don't they. 4.30 Perth 18 runners go to post for the Press & Journal Highland National Handicap Chase. The race, set to be run on good ground providing the weather stays unchanged, is over 3m 7f and is for horses aged 5 yo upwards, rated 0-115. The runners with winning form around this 31f trip are Laertes (31f), Ballygally Bob (29f), Finzi (30f) and Another Rum (33f). Laertes is rated 1 lb lower than the ceiling and scrapes into this race as he was running off a mark of 119 three runs ago, when he pulled up at Carlisle. He has had two runs since over hurdles so perhaps connections have been aiming for this race with a plan in the back of their minds as he looks to retain his crown following a an 8/1 success 12 months ago. He is 6 lbs higher this time around, but Ollie Greenall takes off 5 lbs to give him a chance and this eight year old may have more to offer over fences after 11 starts. Stamina obviously isn't an issue, but he would ideally prefer a bit of rain perhaps. Ballygalley Bob was the victim of unfortunate circumstances last time out at Haydock as the stray Florida Dream (who reopposes here) interefered with him and prompted him to unseat his rider at the sixth. Prior to that he had underlined his staying credentials with a win over 29f at Warwick on good ground off a 7 lb lower mark. He is another than has mainly raced on softer ground, but his too is only 8 and could have more to offer and the jockeys 3 lb claim also means he isn't handicapped out of things. Finzi is well handicapped on the pick of his form running off a mark of 97 here, bearing in mind he won off 4 lb higher (when had Florida Dream behind) at Bangor last year. That win came on heavy ground, which shows him to be a powerful stayer, and he did place on GF ground at Sedegfield in his younger years to suggest the ground may not necessarily rule him out. At 11 he lacks the scope for improvement of some of these, but his stamina will hold him in good stead against many doubtful stayers. Another Rum is another veteran at 11 and runs off 96 this afternoon. He was a winner in the 2005 Cheltenham festival in the NH Chase Cup over 33f so stamina isn't an issue for this one who competed in last years Scottish National and was 11th. His mark has dropped 5 lbs from his last run but he hasn't won for four years now and looks vulnerable to younger legs. Suggested bets: Ballygalley Bob - 10/1 Bet 365, 0.45 pt Laertes - 10/1 Bet 365, 0.4 pt Finzi - 25/1 Skybet, 0.15 pt

14/1 winner with Laertes, no arguments from me:cow

[jtw1]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Nice one FINTRON :clap , I'd definately stick with this for a bit longer :loon

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Cheers chaps, he got the job done well, horses for courses as they say! Well done Diamond too, hope you got a BOG with your bet?

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

7.45 Bangor This looks quite a competitive little race and most have winning form around the 3m 100y trip. However, the ones that stand out most are Mr Big, Marufo and Killard Point. Killard Point is a course and distance winner that is 6 lbs higher than when winning at Lingfield in March. He won here off 2 lb higher in December 2007 and should act on the ground. The trainer form is a little offputting though. Heather Dalton had a winner recently so has no such concerns and her Marufo was off the mark over fences at the fourth time of asking when last seen, winning on good ground at Southwell over 1.5f further. Both of his career wins have come on good ground now so he may not have been ideally served with cut at Newb, Hunt and Utt inbetween. He's 9 lbs higher for this but is quite unexposed and their could be more to come. Mr Big hails from the inform Charlie Mann yard, who saddled up Rebel Melody yesterday and have had 5 winners from 11 runners in the past fortnight, including this fellow, who won over 3m at Chepstow 11 days ago. He runs under a 7 lb penalty as a consequence, but looks to have a big chance as he is due to go up an extra 2 lbs in future. Fast ground (if it goes that way) isn't a problem judging by his Irish form (winner on GF) and he looks to have a consistent profile so is my main bet here. Suggested bets: Mr Big - 3/1 VC Bet, 0.75 pt Marufo - 7/2 VC Bet, 0.25 pt

Mr Big is a NR, so another 0.5 pt to be added on Marufo @ 4/1 with Stans, the remaining 0.25 pt to go on Killard Point @ 7/2 Bet 365.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Thanks for the comments guys. Diamond, I'm having a crack at the national race, but the Mergio race is a hurdle so I'm skipping that. I've come to the same conclusions as you in the 4.30 though, three clearly stand out in the stamina stakes don't they. 4.30 Perth 18 runners go to post for the Press & Journal Highland National Handicap Chase. The race, set to be run on good ground providing the weather stays unchanged, is over 3m 7f and is for horses aged 5 yo upwards, rated 0-115. The runners with winning form around this 31f trip are Laertes (31f), Ballygally Bob (29f), Finzi (30f) and Another Rum (33f). Laertes is rated 1 lb lower than the ceiling and scrapes into this race as he was running off a mark of 119 three runs ago, when he pulled up at Carlisle. He has had two runs since over hurdles so perhaps connections have been aiming for this race with a plan in the back of their minds as he looks to retain his crown following a an 8/1 success 12 months ago. He is 6 lbs higher this time around, but Ollie Greenall takes off 5 lbs to give him a chance and this eight year old may have more to offer over fences after 11 starts. Stamina obviously isn't an issue, but he would ideally prefer a bit of rain perhaps. Ballygalley Bob was the victim of unfortunate circumstances last time out at Haydock as the stray Florida Dream (who reopposes here) interefered with him and prompted him to unseat his rider at the sixth. Prior to that he had underlined his staying credentials with a win over 29f at Warwick on good ground off a 7 lb lower mark. He is another than has mainly raced on softer ground, but his too is only 8 and could have more to offer and the jockeys 3 lb claim also means he isn't handicapped out of things. Finzi is well handicapped on the pick of his form running off a mark of 97 here, bearing in mind he won off 4 lb higher (when had Florida Dream behind) at Bangor last year. That win came on heavy ground, which shows him to be a powerful stayer, and he did place on GF ground at Sedegfield in his younger years to suggest the ground may not necessarily rule him out. At 11 he lacks the scope for improvement of some of these, but his stamina will hold him in good stead against many doubtful stayers. Another Rum is another veteran at 11 and runs off 96 this afternoon. He was a winner in the 2005 Cheltenham festival in the NH Chase Cup over 33f so stamina isn't an issue for this one who competed in last years Scottish National and was 11th. His mark has dropped 5 lbs from his last run but he hasn't won for four years now and looks vulnerable to younger legs. Suggested bets: Ballygalley Bob - 10/1 Bet 365, 0.45 pt Laertes - 10/1 Bet 365, 0.4 pt Finzi - 25/1 Skybet, 0.15 pt

:clap Nice one Wayney boy :cheers

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Cheers chaps' date=' he got the job done well, horses for courses as they say! Well done Diamond too, hope you got a BOG with your bet?[/quote'] :ok I've had my own look at the 3m5 at Sandown tomorrow and I've got it to two: Kilbeggan Blade (my disappointing Aintree nap) and Zacharova. Good luck!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Cheers Tip. Diamond, I think my order of preference is something like Zacharova, Lacdoudal, Kilbeggan Blade, Darkness, but at the odds I just decided to dutch them, and will be happy if any of them wins. :hope Heading over to the Emerald Isle today whilst confidence is high and there are three suitable handicap chases to get stuck into today. 7.00 Kilbeggan 17 line up to contest the 25f trip, the ones with winning form around that are Duldodti Bob (25f), Bobbawin (24f), Canadian Sunset (25f), He's On His Way (24f), Cochise (24f), Laura's Light (24f), De Danu (24f), Sapient (23f), Glenfolan (24f), Ah Ref (24f), Over Siberia (24f), Coala Mann (24f) and Bishop's Lane. Duldodti Bob races off a mark of 106, an 8 lb rise for his last time out win over this trip at Fairyhouse. Although making a blunder at the second last, he stayed on well to win and infact drops in grade for this 0-105 chase, having picked up a win in a 0-116 that day. His track record is mixed, but he has placed twice here, so I think he probably can handle the undulations, and in form and benefitting from a recent step up in trip he looks one of the more likely ones. Bobbawin hasn't yet won a handicap chase but is only 1 lb higher than when a 4-length second at Limerick December. He seemed to be going well that day after making his move on the winner, but two mistakes at the last two fences put pay to his chances. However, he is a young chaser open to more improvement after only seven career runs, and the step up in trip could see him in a better light as he has won over 3m in Irish points (3-3 in that sphere infact). Has also won on heavy so won't mind conditions. Canadian Sunset won a beginners chase last February but is yet to score in handicaps. She is stepped up in trip here which could be a good move as she's won over 25f before, and she has been one paced and not made much of a threat over shorter of late. He's On His Way has won three Irish points, but never any handicaps, and even those wins came three years ago. Cochise has some decent bits of form. A winner at Thurles off 84 last October he then placed off 93 and 96 up to Christmas, and runs off 100 here. He pulled up over hurdles when last seen in January but should appreciate the course judging by his Thurles form, and he stays and goes on the ground. When scoped after his last run, they found mucus in the trachea, so assuming all is well now, he could bounce back as he could have more to offer. Laura's Light has wins in a bumper and over hurdles, but never over fences. He may improve now sent chase handicapping, both others appeal more. De Danu is young at six and only has 11 starts to his name, 5 of which are under rules. he has something to prove in the handicap sphere and UR behind Dulgotdi Bob last time out. Sapient is 7 lbs higher than when winning at Downpatrick in May '07. He hasn't been seen much since, and he didn't run too badly last time out on GF ground over shorter. He probably has the ability to take this if in the mood, but his lack of recent runs worries me slightly. Glenfolan is 3 lb lower than when winning at Naas in Nov '07 but hasn't won since. He didn't see a racecouse in 2008 but has hardly set the world alight in 2009 either, unsteating at Stratford in March and finishing 10th last time out (btn 30 lengths) at Cork. The step back up in trip may help and he does have an eyecatching jockey booking considering his recent form, but he's not for me at the likely odds. Ah Ref only has six starts under rules and the 9 yo was off the mark off 81 at Tramore in September last year. He's 9 lbs higher now and although open to improvement, has a little to prove after pulling up the last twice. He also has an absence to overcome. Over Siberia has run in ten chases and won none. His sole win came in an Irish point, and although he is likely to stay his profile suggests he is unreliable. Coala Mann has mainly been campaigned over hurdles and won a maiden in January this year over the smaller obstacles. She was entered in a Grade 3 chase at Limerick shortly after which looks a fascinating if speculative entry given his form. He pulled up, and was beaten by a considerable margin at Thurles, latest. Bishop's Lane is lightly raced and makes his chase debut. He has done little over hurdles to get excited about. Suggested bets: Dulgodti Bob - 4/1 Bet 365, 0.4 pt Bobbawin - 6/1 Bet 365, 0.3 pt Cochise - 8/1 Bet 365, 0.2 Canadian Sunset - 20/1 Bet 365, 0.1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 2.15 Market Rasen A little less form to study here as only seven line up for this 0-115, class 4 chase. The ones with winning form around the 25f trip are Aztec Warrior (22f), Caipiroska (24f), Pams Oak (26f), Go West (26f) and Dawn Ride (25f). Aztec Warrior started his chase career brightly, with a beating of Garde Champetre in 2006 looking a decent win at first glance. He was rated around 135 back then, but has gone off the rails since and turns up at the Lincolnshire track running off a mark of 112 today. He's only been seen once this year, pulling up at Bangor, and is passed over. Caipiroska will don the distinctive Trevor Hemming's silks and heads the betting at 5/2. A ten year old gelding, his profile has a consistent look to it and he is only 4 lbs higher than his highest ever winning chase mark (Perth, Sep '07). His last win came in a handicap hurdle at Wetherby in Dec '07 and he has been mixing the two codes and broke a blood vessel on his last chase start. I think he may be worth another go now on this right-handed track which should suit. Pams Oak is 8 lbs higher than when winning at Southwell last July and is also a course winner ('06). He has an absence to overcome here though. Go West won a beginners chase at Southwell last year but hasn't yet won in handicaps. He has run reasonably well off this sort off mark in defeat, but others appeal more. Dawn Ride has been raised 11 lbs for a last time out win at Wetherby over this trip. He made a mistake at the last but overall ran a good race and will have the same ground here. I don't know if 11 lbs was necessarily a fair rise though, and he must now win off a career high mark, so will be my saver. Suggested bets: Caipiroska - 5/2 Bet 365, 0.75 pt Dawn Ride - 7/2 Bet 365, 0.25 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Darkness is a NR so with the returned stake, another 0.17 pt on Lacdoudal @ 17/2 Sporting Bet. Just had another look over my remaining three, I think Zacharova, after all the morning support, is too short for what he acheived last time out, and Kilbeggan is drifting a bit, so Lacdoudal, who knows how to run a big race in the hustle and bustle of a competitive chase like this, gets the extra pts.

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases tremendous

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 3.10 Wetherby With Cash Man a non-runner just four take their place in this line up. The ground is GD-FM and they go over 25f. The runners with winning form around the trip are Benny The Piler (23f), Manbow (25f) and Mandingo Chief (23f). Benny the Piler has the benefit of Denis O'Regan's services this afternoon for what is only his eleventh career start. The nine year old's sole win came in a novices hurdle in Oct '06, and he makes only his second start in handicap chases. He pulled up last time out at Catterick and although a return to quicker ground could see him bounce back, one other one appeal more. Manbow is the course and distance winner in the field, winning off 4 lb lower in a novices handicap in March 2005. He goes well at the Yorkshire track, boasting figures of 1112P23127472 over fences, and ran well here last time out, narrowly losing out to Dawn Ride off his current mark of 105. This 11 veteran has won off 2 lb higher in the past, and will love quick ground so looks to hold a big chance on his favoured stomping ground with trainer Micky Hammond in decent enough form. Mandingo Chief runs off bottom weight of 10-2 and Brendan Powell's 10 yo is another course winner (Oct '06). However, that was the last time this one tasted success and although he is 4 lbs lower than his last run, he has a little to prove here as he has failed to complete on two of his last five starts and been well beaten in the others. His mark is dropping but Manbow appeals the greatest of the trio and is my selection. Suggested bet: 7/4 Stan James, 1 pt.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

tremendous

Cheers mate, still quite early days, but If I can hit 50 bets and keep up a yield over 25 % I'll be ecstastic!

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases I know I screwed up yesterday by jumping in too early with Kilbeggan Blade (I was too cocky after striking with Laertes on Friday) but I think your thread suggests that the methodology used in these selections is pretty sound and well worth sticking with. I just hope that I can learn to be a bit more selective like yourself and a few of the other legends on here, take a bit more time and care before acting impulsively like I have a bad habit of doing.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Discipline is my problem too. Although my handicap chase picks are showing a pleasing amount of profit, I have ended up spending the winnings on other bets outside of the thread, and the flat is proving to fund sapping! I think the original stat was something like 80 % of these chase handicap winners have previous form within 3 or 4f of the trip, so I think it is a good initial filter to apply to concentrate form study on fewer runners. The method is vulnerable to young improvers stepping up in trip and someone could argue that a horse that finished a neck second over 30f is just as likely to stay as a 30f winner, but in this thread I totally ignore the neck seconds am happy to ignore them as the statistical freaks.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Manbow ran a stinker yesterday. It was a terrible race, the lead was exchanged several times, but Graeme Lee was giving him reminders right from the start, he jumped several fences poorly and all in all it was a poor pick. It says it all really when the winner was a horse that hadn't won a race for three years. 4.40 Towcester<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Ten runners are declared for this class 4 handicap chase over 25f. The ones with winning form around the trip are Superrollercoaster (25f), Red Scally (25f), Crank Hill (24f), Blaze Ahead (26f), Green 'n' Gold (22f) and Arceye (25f).

Superrollercoaster ran over course and distance last time out and ran a cracking race under a large weight, finding only Deep Pockets too good and losing by a narrow margin. He has been raised 4 lbs as a result, but at least is proven to go well on this testing track. He was infact a course and distance winner in March off 10 lb lower, but appears to be a consistent horse and he will benefit from the services of Tony McCoy today, which will be a huge plus if he ends up being drawn into a battle on the run in again.

Red Scally is proven to go well here having won at the track in November 2006. He won over two and a half miles at Ayr in March off 5 lb lower, but the step up in trip shouldn't pose any problems as he won over 25f at Fakenham just over a year ago. He has won on fast ground at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Bangor earlier in his career to suggest the ground will be fine, but he does have a little to prove after pulling up at Stratford last time out.

Crank Hill represents Irish National winning training Bob Buckler and his 7 yo only has 15 starts to his name. Running of a chase mark of 95 here he benefits from Harry Skelton's 5 lb claim and was only narrowly behind Superrollercoaster over course and distance last time out. He has been raised 3 lbs since that day, but is officially 7 lbs better off this afternoon so will hope to reverse that 1.25 length defeat.

Blaze Ahead won over course and distance last May and is 3 lb lower now. The trainer has started to hit a bit of form having a winner at Wetherby yesterday, and although he was well beaten at Huntingdon on similar ground last time out he can't be confidently ruled out.

Green 'n' Gold has ran in ten chases and is yet to score, but he does have several wins over hurdles and does have placed chased form and has at least completed every one of his starts over fences. He was third behind Deep Pockets over course and distance last time out when seven lengths off Superrollercoaster, so he is another that will be hopeful of reversing that form off these revised terms.

Arceye won over course and distance last April off 83 and is 6 lbs lower now. His mark has generally been sliding as he hasn't won in the last year, but the jockey takes off another three and he is well handicapped if having a going day. He is yet another runner that was involved in the CD chase here on the 12th April, finishing 5th and 13.5 lengths off the winners. His mark remains unaltered from that run. All in all, I think the jockey booking of McCoy on the Sherwood runner gives out a positive message and I think he will go well again on a track that suits. However, Crank Hill is weighted to get closer based upon the race over CD on 26th March and Superrollercoaster may possible struggle to give him this weight as I think Harry Skelton's claim could prove critical here. Suggested bets: Superrollercoaster 9/4 Skybet, 0.33 pt saver Crank Hill 5/1 Skybet, 0.67 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

4.40 Towcester<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Crank Hill represents Irish National winning training Bob Buckler and his 7 yo only has 15 starts to his name. Running of a chase mark of 95 here he benefits from Harry Skelton's 5 lb claim and was only narrowly behind Superrollercoaster over course and distance last time out. He has been raised 3 lbs since that day, but is officially 7 lbs better off this afternoon so will hope to reverse that 1.25 length defeat.

.......All in all, I think the jockey booking of McCoy on the Sherwood runner gives out a positive message and I think he will go well again on a track that suits. However, Crank Hill is weighted to get closer based upon the race over CD on 26th March and Superrollercoaster may possible struggle to give him this weight as I think Harry Skelton's claim could prove critical here. Suggested bets: Superrollercoaster 9/4 Skybet, 0.33 pt saver Crank Hill 5/1 Skybet, 0.67 pt

Crank Hills backed into 11/4 favouritism, 1st, and a wide margin winner :nana Will prob get a R4 on it but still a nice winner.

[aldric]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Crank Hills backed into 11/4 favouritism, 1st, and a wide margin winner :nana Will prob get a R4 on it but still a nice winner.

Well done mate! :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Cheers mate. There was another handicap chase over 3m+ yesterday, and was won by Deep Pockets at 9/2 at Plumpton. That winner could have quite easily been obtained using the recent formlines from Towcester surrounding Superollercoaster,but there weren't many runners so I ended up ducking the race after the Wetherby farce on Sunday. Two races for today... 3.30 Wincanton<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Nine runners are declared for this handicap chase over 3m 1f 110y. The horses with winning form around the trip are Otantique (24f), Tom Sayers (28f), Fire and Rain (24f), Aces or Better (24f) and Openide (23f).

Otantique returns from a 545 day break but Emma Lavelle's gelding was most progressive when last seen at the races, and won both of his starts since turning to chasing. He is 5 lbs higher than his last win but stays, is versatile ground wise, and should give a good account if all is well.

Tom Sayers has the strongest staying credentials in the field and won over course and distance in October 2007. He missed the whole of 2008 and hasn't won since. This year he has ran three times, finishing 5th of 11 at Newbury in March but failing to complete either side, pulling at Newbury and then at this track last time out.

Fire and Rain is Emma Lavelle's second runner and looks the stable first string with Choc Thornton booked to ride. He won easily in a handicap chase at Kempton last time out over slightly shorter, and carries a 7 lb penalty here as a consequence. He seemed to have sorted himself out after a shaky start to his chase career and bids for the four timer here. Highly progressive of late all of his wins have come on good ground, so he will hope for conditions to remain unaltered.

Aces or Better is an unexposed gelding just starting out his chase career. He showed ability as a hurdler and even had a crack at a Grade 2 prize over the smaller obstancles in April '07. He then moved onto chasing and made a promising start winning on his debut over fences in a beginners race and then only losing narrowly to Our Jasper next time out. He could potentially be fairly handicapped off 119 bearing in Our Jasper has been competing well off higher marks of late, but he is another returning from a break and fitness has to be taken on trust.

Openide won a Grade 3 novices chase three years ago and hasn't won since. He has competed in plenty of handicaps and arguably his best effort in handicaps came at last years Cheltenham festival when second in the Kim Muir. He won't mind soft and probably will stay this trip, but he has been well beaten off marks in the 130's and more recently 120's and will have to hope his easing mark can bring about some improvement.

I think Fire and Rain is the most likely winner because he holds a fitness advantage over some of these, but he steps up to face some progressive horses here, and at the price I'll have him as a saver. Otantique and Aces or Better are the two I like, and swayed by the prices I take the Brendan Powell horse as a main bet with Otantique as a saver. Suggested bets: Fire and Rain - 2/1 Bet 365, 0.35 pt Otantique - 6/1 Paddy, 0.15 pt Aces or Better - 10/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 7.20 Sedgefield 11 runners are declared for this 28f race. The ones with winning form around the trip are Canada Street (25f), Chernik (25f), Dunbrody Millar (29f), Don't Be Bleu (25f), Lucky Nellerie (30f), Polar Gale (27f) and Korelo (27f). Canada Street won off 5 lb higher at Wetherby back in 2007 but hasn't won since. He's had two runs this year, finishing 5th of 6 at Newcastle over what may have been an inadequate trip and it was an improvement from his previous run when he had fallen. Last time out at Wetherby he again completed, but he was held by the leading pair. The step up in trip will suit here but that lto form isn't working out well at all. Chernik is a lightly raced 8 yo that has only had four runs over fences. 4th to Galreton on his handicap debut at Carlisle off 95, he was then dropped 1 lb and won at that track over 25f when last seen. He was a wide margin winner so the handicapper has clobbered him with another 15 lbs for that effort. Fast ground isn't a problem. Dunbrody Millar is the veteran of the field and has won off 22 lbs higher in the past. His last win came two years ago and he is vulnerable to younger legs. Don't Be Bleu got off to a flying start when sent chasing, winning a beginners chase at Folkestone but she fell on only her second start over fences (under rules) next time out. She has had a couple of runs over hurdles since, presumably to boost her confidence and she may have more to offer in this sphere. Lucky Nellerie has slipped back down to his last winning mark (105) and is a dour stayer, with wins over 28 and 30f on slower ground. He was 4th behind Polar Gale at this track over 1f shorter last time out and may prefer a bit more cut. However, he is a little bit better weighted with that rival today and does seem to go well here so is respected. Polar Gale won here over 1f shorter last time out and has been raised 11 lbs for an 11 length victory. He is another that loves it here with multiple course wins, has benefitted from a recent wind operation, and the trip and ground won't be a problem. Korelo runs off 92 here, some 28 lbs lower than when winning at Chepstow in Jan '06, and the jockey takes off another 7 lbs tonight. He has been knocking on the door of late with two seconds off 89 and 92 over 25f trips in his last two starts and this step up in trip may bring about a win here. Suggested bets: Chernik -6/1 Sky, 0.15 pt Lucky Nellerie - 13/2 Bet 365, 0.15 pt Polar Gale - 7/1 Bet 365, 0.45 pt Korelo - 7/1 Lads, 0.15 pt Don't Be Bleu - 12/1 Bleu Sq, 0.1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Didn't manage to get the winner in the 3.30 at Winc, it went to a 'statistical freak' so no matter how long I studied the race i would never have picked up on him using my method. In the 7.20 at Sedge my main pick failed to complete but I did save on the winner, Lucky Nellierie, for a 0.13 pt profit (due to a 15p R4 from Chernik withdrawing). 2.30 Southwell 12 runners will run over 26f here. The ones with winning form around the trip are Cannon Fire (24f), Lady Roania (24f), Clear The Way (24f), Militant Man (26f) and Southern Bazaar (26f). Cannon Fire has been mixing chasing with hurdling of late, but has been running credibly over fences. He was second off a 3 lb lower mark at Ludlow in February and although he is yet to win over fences, he has placed 6/9 times. He seems versatile ground wise and should go well. Lady Roania has just three chase starts to her name. She was beaten 16 lengths into 3rd in a novices chase at Hunt in October and is 8 lbs lower now. Although well beaten at Leicester last time out, she has gone well here over hurdles before. Has to overcome an absence here though. Clear The Way remains a maiden under rules. Has won over 3m in and Irish PTP, but has been well beaten in chases of late and is passed over. Militant Man is proven over the full 26f here unlike most of the others and is only 7 yo so probably has more to offer after only 12 starts. He's run just twice over fences and has been well beaten on both occasions. He races off 2 lb lower now, but must improve to figure here. Southern Bazaar is throughly exposed over hurdles and won 4-35. He made his chase debut in Nov. '07 at Market Rasen and was well beaten and is passed over here. Suggested bets: Cannon Fire - 4/1 Sport Bet, 0.75 pt Lady Roania - 12/1 Sky, 0.1 pt Militant Man - 8/1 Paddy, 0.15 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 7.30 Kelso 25f trip here. The ones with winning form around the dist are Snowy (24f), Megaton (25f) and Cornerback (23f). Snowy won at Musselburgh off 94 in March and then placed off 100 last time out when narrowly beaten at Kelso. He is 2 lb higher now, but evidently is in good shape. He is a course winner and should handle good ground. Megaton won over this course in May '07 and won't have any problems with the trip. He was in decent form last summer off marks around 102-115 and races off 115 here. He unsteated his rider last time out and has a lengthy absence to overcome but could go well if all is okay. Cornerback is an unexposed mare that has only had five starts over fences. She won a novices handicap chase here off 6 lb lower in March and although has failed to follow up since, may still be learning the job and have more to offer. She fell at Carlisle, so her last run will have booster her confidence, and it wouldn't be a great surprise to see her win again now. Suggested bets: Snowy - 7/2 Sky, 0.65 pt Megaton - 11/2 bet 365, 0.2 pt Cornerback - 15/2 Betfred, 0.15 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases A bit unfortunate in the last two races with Cannon Fire and Snowy only going down by narrow margins. Both were second. 4.20 Punchy Oh baby, you can forget your grade 1's, your Tatenen's, Cooldine's and Forpadytheplaster's, this is what it is all about - a true Darwinian struggle, a survival of the fittest, as 28 runners slog it out over 3m 6f in a handicap chase. Its about time we had a staying handicap at the festival. :) Those with winning form over marathon trips are Mattock Ranger (28f), Ballytrim (28f), Keenan's Future (30f), Point Barrow (29f), Alickadoo (28f), Kings Glen (30f). Mattock Ranger was entered in the Grand National but never made the cut. The 9 yo is a bit of a risky betting proposition judging by the number of times he has pulled up in the last year, but he did complete over hurdles last time out when 4th at Fairyhouse. It has been over a year since he last completed a chase, but he undoubtedly has ability and has won off 3 lb lower and handles heavy. Ballytrim goes for the inform Willie Mullins and is ridden by Ruby. A 7 length winner of a handicap chase over 28f at Downpatrick last time out he has been raised 9 lbs for this but understandably heads the market. He handles slow ground and was 4th in the race last year. Keenan's Future is less exposed than some of these and the 8 yo has run well in several staying chases, including last time out when a winner over 29f at Warwick. He is up 6 lbs now and will hope to improve on his placing last year, when he fell. He'll handle the ground and should go well. Point Barrow pulled up in last years Grand National and his name is always mentioned in these staying chases. He hasn't won since 2007 and others appeal more. Alickadoo is 8 lbs higher than his last win, but only 2 lbs higher than when second last time out at Tramore over shorter. This step up in trip will suit and he handles soft ground. Fell in this race in 2007. Kings Glen won this in 2007 and is 1 lb lower now. However, has pulled up on all of last four starts and is passed over. Suggested bets: Ballytrum - 5/1 Bet 365, 0.15 pt (semi saver) Keenan's Future - 16/1 Paddy, 0.5 pt Alickadoo - 20/1 Lads, 0.35 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Ballytrim just won at Punchestown so that semi-saver is better than a kick in the balls. Will go down as a loser for profit/loss though as a loss was made on the bet overall. On to tonight. 7.40 Fontwell They tackle 3m 2f 110y here and the ones with winning form around the trip are Zimbabwe (26f), Lavenoak Lad (24f), Touch of Fate (26f), Count the Cost (28f), Sebber Bridge (24f), Hever Road (27f), Kingston-Banker (26f), Maree Hall (24f), Carnt Spell (24f), Off The Shelf (24f) and General Alarm (24f). Zimbabwe is superbly handicapped on his best form as he has won off 28 lb higher in the past. He threatened to score when narrowly beaten at Chepstow off 1 lb lower and although he would probably prefer slower conditions, he is so well handicapped its hard to ignore him. he's won on a left handed and sharp track in Plumpton, so may act here. Lavenoak Lad is yet to win in handicaps but has at least won over fences, winning a classified chase at Taunton last march. He ran well enough off this mark last time out in a handicap and seems one of the more likely ones. Touch of Fate has never won a handicap. He hasn't had much racing for his age but was soundly beaten last time out and is passed over. Count the Cost races from near the bottom of the weights and is yet to win in 9 starts over fences. He was 4th off this mark last time out but he finished distressed and must bounce back. Sebber Bridge's mark is dropping and she has plenty to prove based on her form when last seen in 2008. Hever Road is very well handicapped on his best form but that was three years ago. He bounced back to form somewhat by finishing 4th at Sedgefield last time out and has been dropped 9 lbs now, but that was better than his previous form as he had pulled up three times in the new year before then. Kingston Banker was 2nd off a 2 lb higher mark at Warwick in November and is an experienced chaser. He's probably vulnerable to better handicapped horses. Maree Hall has something to prove over fences. Carnt Spell is 3 lb lower than when winning at Hunt in Dec '07. He pulled up at Chep lto though and is passed over. Off the Shelf is a young chaser still learning the game. Others may be more street wise here. General Alarm won a pair of novices chases in 2006 but hasn't won over fences since. Was well beaten at Font in a handicap before pulling up last time out. Suggested bets: Zimbabwe - 6/1 Sport Bet, 0.7 pt Lavenoak Lad - 8/1 Sport bet, 0.12 pt Count the Cost - 16/1 Sport bet, 0.08 pt Hever Road - 20/1 Bet 365, 0.05 pt Kingston Banker - 20/1 Hills, 0.05 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Managed the 1-2 in the last race, but only with saver selections so nothing gained from that race really. 3.55 Uttoxeter A very competitive, high quality, handicap chase here. Don't have time for a full write up, but the ones I fancy are Roulez Cool, Present Glory and Pretty Star. Roulez Cool has been raised 12 lbs for his lto win at Bangor. He's quite lightly raced and could have more to offer. That showed he stays 3m, gd-sft ground poses no problems and he probably has more to offer on these shores on his third UK start. Present Glory won really well last time and although up 7 lb now, will stay and comes into the race in good form. He's going for the hat-trick and races on the slowest ground he's faced to date, but got the job done so well last time I'm keeping faith. Pretty Star was second to Character Building in a handicap at the festival and is only 3 lbs higher now. That ranks as decent form in the grade, and although he was disappointing at Aintree lto, he was racing from out of the handicap. Roulez Cool - 7/1 Hills, 0.4 pt Present Glory - 8/1 Blue Sq, 0.4 pt Pretty Star - 14/1 Sporting Bet, 0.2 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases that was very annoying, things were looking very good jumping the last but Russian Round headed Roulez Cool on the run in, Pretty Star wasn't far away in third at a price too. :wall

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 7.20 <?xml:namespace prefix = u1 /><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Exeter<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Sixteen runners line up over three miles and the ones with winning form around the trip are Crank Hill (25f), Bernard (23f) and Arctic Shadow (24f).

Crank Hill runs under a 7 lb penalty as a consequence of a win at Towcester eight days ago. He won very comfortably that day, so looks well treated before the handicapper has chance to react, and he is proven to stay this trip. Although he pulled up on his last visit to this track his last time out win proves he does handle right-handed, testing tracks and he did infact place here over hurdles several years ago.

Bernard won a novices hurdle here in November 2007 but hasn't won since. He has pulled up on both starts here and is passed over after only one start over fences.

Arctic Shadow made his chase debut at Towcester last time out and finished a respectable second. He has been given a rating of 90 for this handicap chase debut but he must improve his jumping to win here. He was a winner of 94 when hurdling, and will get this trip.

Suggested bets:

Crank Hill 11/4 Bet 365, 0.9 pt

Arctic Shadow 12/1 Bet 365, 0.1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Crank Hill was a NR yesterday, the saver ran okay before a jumping error put pay to his chances. After that, he tailed off. 6.30 Huntingdon Five have winning form around the 3m trip. Ours runs off 110 and is 11 lbs higher than when winning at Leicester last year. He is a course winner, will get the trip but fell at Market Rasen last time out and may prefer softer ground. Olay Olay will benefit from being ridden by AP and for all he is a master in the saddle and good at winning on average horses, I don't like this one enough to back fully. Won off 12 lb lower two years ago but has been well beaten on recent starts, including on fast ground. This trip is probably more up his street are could see some improvement but others appeal more on this return from a break. Lawyer Des Ormeaux is a course winner and has also won over this trip before. His last win came in August '07 in novices chase but he hasnt won since and was well beaten in a hunters chase last time out. Alcatras is well handicapped on his old form and the 12 yo won off 6 lb higher two years ago. His last win came in December off 4 lb lower but he has ran well more recently, finishing only 0.75 lengths off the winner last time out at Wincanton off 2 lb lower. it was only inside the final 50 yards that he was headed, and the veteran may go well again here with fast ground seemingly no problem. Toni Alcala is a course winner (may '08) who doesn't mind fast ground and who will get this trip fine. However, he was well beaten when last seen off this sort of mark and is passed over. Suggested bets Alcatras - 13/2 bet 365, 0.8 pt Olay Olay - saver (Just incase the reversion back to this trip and the McCoy factor comes into play) - 9/2 Sport Bet, 0.2 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Toni Alcada did his best to throw away the race yesterday and lunged at the last two fences. He went on to win though, my pick Alcatras was going well but was outpaced and stayed on for third, just pipped of second but both well adrift of the winner. 6.40 Wincanton 11 runners line up over 26f here. The ones with winning form around the trip are Contact Dancer, Terramarique, Millards Lad, Sea Wall, Dennis The Legend and Tarsus. Contact Dancer runs off 120 but hasn't raced much in handicaps. He was placed off 113 a few years ago but never won and was thus allowed to line up in a novices race which he picked up last time out at Newton Abbot. He returns from a break here. Handles fast ground. Terramarique returns from a 162-day break but has been a decent handicapper in the lower grades in seasons gone by. He notched up a treble in 2007 (part hurdles), and is 4 lbs higher than his last chase win. He gets the trip, handles quick ground and has gone well fresh before. Millards Lad has slipped 8 lbs below his last winning mark, but hasn't won for a while and has been well beaten on recent starts. Sea Wall is only 6 lbs higher than his last win but has something to prove off the back of recent efforts. Dennis The Legend won over course and distance last month and the third has franked that form since. He went up 4 lbs and was unplaced off that mark here last time out, but that was only his third start over fences and he is entitled to improve and progress. He ran loose before his last start, which may not have helped in the warm up to a staying chase! Tarsus is up 5 lbs from a last time out win at Bangor and will appreciate this step back up in trip. Rebecca Curtis' gelding has been progressive this year after starting the year on a mark of 77 at Hereford, and has been consistently running close over trips that may have been on the sharp side. With Rhys Flint taking off 3 lbs, he could run a race as he should get the trip. This will be the quickest ground he has faced to date, but he could go well. Suggested bets: Tarsus - 6/1 Sport Bet, 0.7 pt Dennis The Legend - 12/1 Sport Bet, 0.1 pt Terramarique - 11/2 Sport Bet, 0.2 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Absolutely fuming. Tarsus smashed off the boards, 6/1 into 11/4 and practically joint favouritism, and would have won that had the stray horse not impeded him and the Nicholls runner (whose jumping found him out when he fell two out) turning for home, sickening, and really frustrating. Another second. :wall