Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 No joy in the National in the last race - Dont Push It fared best of those selected and finished third. I'll update the P&L after the Irish National. Here are the runner by runner comments, the verdict to follow in the next post.. 4.55 Fairyhouse (Irish National) 3m5f - Good ground - 141,000 eur to the winner Runner by runner comments: 1. Syncronised - won Welsh National in January and was credible third under big weight in Uttoxeter National next time. Swerved the English National because the ground was too fast and going could again be an issue here (although they have apparently watered). Passed over. 2. Or Noir De Somoza - fell at Bechers (first time around) in the English National earlier in the month and has stamina to prove. All best form in France on slower ground. Ignored. 3. Backstage - has often threatened to win a decent staying pot like this but doubts as to whether he has the class to do so. Was unlucky when hampered in the 2010 National but no excuses this year when well held in 10th. 4. Hughies Grey - improving seven-year-old that won valuable Grade 2 Navan chase last time out. Won Ulster National over 3m4f in March, 26lb higher now but last run shows he is still improving. Couldn't be ruled out. 5. Quantitativeasing - ran well when second to Divers in Cheltenham handicap on his handicap debut last time. Has gone up 3lb and although seemingly well weighted, lacks the chase experience of some (4 runs to date over fences). Single figure odds due to fact owned by JP McManus and AP is booked to ride - value has gone. 6. Quiscover Fontaine - only had six runs over fences and showed inexperience when falling at Thurles last time. Has stamina to prove; can only be watched in race this hot. 7. See U Bob - only a short head of Hughies Grey in Grade 2 chase last time at Navan and could possibly reverse form over this longer trip. 1-7 in this sphere and capable of better, but stamina in doubt. 8. Whatuthink - third and not far behind Hughies Grey and See U Bob in Navan Grade 2 last time, has the most experience of that trio (13 prev runs over fences) and in that time shown he stays and acts on this ground (third in this race last year). Only 1lb higher now and bold bid anticipated. 9. Shakervilz - useful novice, won £23k Grade 2 in February, but sailing into unchartered waters with regards to trip now. 10. Sunnyhillboy - credible third in Vote A.P. Gold Cup at Cheltenham in December, making eyecatching late headway, but failed to build on that effort when falling in h'cap at festival last time. Up in trip, others look more reliable. 11. Western Charmer - kept good company in novices races earlier this year (behind RSA winner Boston Angel and Aintree winner Quito De Le Roque to name too) over trips he seemed to find on sharp side. Credible Limerick second last time over 3m - very much of interest. 12. Prince Erik - Pertemps Hurdle second at 2010 Cheltenham festival and since moved back over fences. Gives impression this longer trip will suit having stayed on well over 2m4f at Navan last time, proven up to 3m. Acts on ground and likely to go close. 8/1 though - not great. 13. Caim Hill - showed promise as a chase novice last term but efforts this term temper enthusiam. Blinkers on now, look elsewhere. 14. Golden Kite - snook into English National at foot of the weights and finished 16th. Has hinted worth a try at this sort of trip (won Munster National over 3m in October) and acts on good ground, no forlorn hope but may find few better treated for win purposes. 15. Kilcrea Castle - never really fulfilled his early potential. Losing run dates back 3 years. No appeal. 16. Sarteano - 7th in Galway Plate last July, had recent pipeopener on the AW at Dundalk but far more convincing case made by many others. 17. Some Target - makes most appeal of the Willie Mullins contingent - (even though Ruby looks elsewhere) as he ran cracking race when fifth in National Hunt Cup, the fact Beshabar (second) has come out of that race and won the Scottish National last weekend (that rival rated 12lb higher) rubber stamps the form. Only had 5 chase starts but in that time has already won over 3m4f and acts on good ground. Cracking chance if now overawed by the occassion. 18. Sebadee - has plenty of experience in point-to-points but only has the three runs to his name over fences under Rules. 4th in competitive Grade 2 novice race last time and hints this longer trip will suit. Others appeal more though. 19. Deal Done - ran really nice race from the front in the Kim Muir last time, going off quickly at the front of affairs but keeping on when headed. 4lb lower now racing on home soil and could benefit from application of first time blinkers (responded well to visor last time). Very interesting now up in trip on ground that suits. 20. Organisedconfusion - all form to date around 2m to 2m2f. Lightly raced in handicaps but looks underpriced in my opinion (14/1) with stamina to prove. 21. The Last Derby - won valuable Ascot 3m chase in 2009 and lack of runs following year means he is still only 2lb higher now. Plenty of promise in Cork National in October when third and remains open to further improvement over fences (only 8 runs in this sphere to date). looks overpriced and capable of running a race. 22. A New Story - thoroughly exposed chaser, won X-Country race at 2010 Cheltenham Festival, third in same race this year. Likely to be outclassed here. 23. Glenstal Abbey - has 16 runs to his name between the flags but just 4 under Rules. Needs to improve plenty upon recent efforts to figure which is unlikely. 24. Ambobo - vastly experienced pointer that also run well in Down Royal chase last month when second to Hold The Pin. Might prefer a bit more cut. 25. Saddlers Storm - progressive handicapper last year but gone off the rails this term. Would have to be backed with as much hope as expecation. 26. Pomme Tiepy - often runs his race in these valuable staying handicaps without managing to get his head infront. 2lb lower than when 5th in Kim Muir - solid place proposition but minor money probably most he can realistically hope for. 27. Beautiful Sound - big gamble in recent days for this one and possibly still well treated. Has a very lightly raced profile (only five career runs under rules) but has made a really good impression in that time, finishing 9th in Paddy Power on only fourth start then going on to win next time out off 116. Was put up 11lb but ran cracker over inadequate trip at Cheltenham last time out. Up another 2lb now but price awfully short for a big occassion like this - respected nonetheless. 28. Hold The Pin - the only runner racing from out of the handicap (1lb oh). Effective on good ground and in good form at present, arrives here on a hat-trick. Career best needed of this mark and vulnerable to progressive sorts but more to recommend than some.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 4.55 Fairhouse A mouth watering race for chase enthusiasts to sink their teeth into and as usual in contests of this nature, some of the runners have been protecting their chase in one way or another. I'm ducking such types though and focussing on those with some solid recent form that have shown some sort of staying credentials and my final shortlist (with Prince Erik and Beautiful Sound crossed off due to short odds) is Hughies Grey, Whatuthink, Western Charmer, Some Target, Deal Done and The Last Derby. In terms of a stamina rank I'd order them as follows: 1) Some Target - won over 28f, placed over 32f 2) Hughies Grey - won over 28f, 3) The Last Derby - won over 3m, placed over 28f 4) Whatuthink - won over 20f, placed over 29f (this race last year) 5) Deal Done - won over 20f, placed over 26f 6) Western Charmer - won over 20f, placed over 24f I tried to draw up the profile of an Ideal Irish National winner earlier today and the sort of horse that do well in this are those that have around a dozen chase runs or so, have won over 3m and have had a recent run around a month or so ago. None of the above six meet all of the criteria because the three with 3m+ winning form all have under a dozen chase runs. Numbersixvalverde and Butlers Cabin came into this off the back of 6 and 8 previous chase runs respectively which allows a bit of flexibility there though I suppose - if the horse has shown they can cut it in large field handicaps. There are also horses such as Whatuthink and Deal Done that have a nice level of chase experience but havent got their head infront over 3m+ yet, but have shown stamina in defeat and cannot be crossed off. The Last Derby lacks a recent run but won first time out in the 09/10 season. I'll take the top three from the stamina rank as the main bets and the bottom three as smaller stakes bets for slight profit if any come in... Some Target - 12/1 Laddies, 0.25 pt Hughies Grey - 20/1 VC Bet, 0.20 pt The Last Derby - 16/1 VC Bet, 0.25 pt Whatuthink - 16/1 Paddypower, 0.1 pt Deal Done - 33/1 VC Bet, 0.1 pt Western Charmer - 20/1 VC Bet, 0.1 pt