Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Ive calmed down since that last race! Tarsus was third in the end, not 2nd as a thought. Dennis the Legend took second, but the influence of the stray definately impacted upon the result. One race for tonight.. 8.00 Towcester A couple interest me in his handicap chase over 3m 110y. Fourpointone looks a huge price at 10/1. He got the job done well in a poor field at Taunton last time out and although this race demands more off a 7 lb higher mark, his price seems daft to me given he handles quick conditions and will stay. Green 'n' Gold is well handicapped on the pick of his form and although he hasn't won for a while, he has been knocking on the door over course and distance and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see him finally open his account over fences. Fourpointone - 10/1 Blue Sq, 0.5 pt Green 'n' Gold - 13/2 Hills, 0.5 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases time to pick this back up again. Things are still in profit, and a +ROI is being made (but down from +36 % from the last update). Will update the results when get chance. 7.30 Towcester A 0-95 chase over 3m 110 yd here. 16 runners line up for the £3,253. The ones with winning form around the trip are Ya I Know (24f), Blaze Ahead (26f), Eight fifty Six (25f), Prey Bird (26f), Arceye (25f), Alderbrook Girl (26f), Ballyfin (24f) and Hever Road (27f). Ya I Know carries top weight of 11-12 here as he's highest rated on 95. His 3m win came in an Irish point three years ago. he has never won under rules but was 2nd of 15 in a novices chase off 1 lb higher at Ludlow in January. He was well beaten in a classified chase on his previous visit to the track, others appeal more. Blaze Ahead has slipped 4 lbs below his last winning mark, which came over course and distance a year ago. He was third behind Crank Hill over course and distance last time out when a few mistakes hampered his chances. He lost second close home but is dropped 1 lb here. Eight Fifty Six is 4 lbs higher than when winning at Kilbeggan two years ago. On recent runs he plugged on in a extreme stamina test at Perth, before falling at Kelso when dropped in trip slightly last time out. he is entitled to need this as a confidence booster. Prey Bird has never won a chase handicap and has been well beaten over this sort of trip on recent starts. Arceye won over CD last year off 6 lb higher but hasn't won since and has dropped down the handicap accordingly. He fell in the race in which Blaze Ahead was third here. He completed last time out so is at least getting back on track, others appeal more. Alderbrook Girl is up 7 lbs from a handicap win in February but that came on bottomless ground and it may be that he prefers slow conditions than this. PU in the Kent National and well beaten Plumpton over this sort of trip latest. Ballyfin is 5-5 in Irish point to points, he is 10 lbs lower than when placing in a chase handicap previously too, but he returns from a massive break to race here. Hever Road has a win at Exter to his name, which could be a pointer to him handling this similarly testing track here. He was a decent second over course and distance two years ago off 100 as well, which points to him being on a decent looking mark of 73 here. Last time out at Fontwell he finished a respectable sixth over further. This drop back in trip can help and he did himself no favours by blundering at the last that day. All in all, nothing stands out as a spectacular bet, but I think Blaze Ahead and Hever Road hold the best claims of the above. Suggested bets: Blaze Ahead - 7/1 Hills, 0.65 pt Hever Road - 12/1 Sporting Bet, 0.35 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Hever Road was backed into 7's but never looked like winning. Both selections travelled poorly, Blaze Ahead was under pressure very early doors and never at any point thought i'd rescue anything out of that race. Balls!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases I've fallen behind the the general housekeeping with this, so time for a quick update just to bring it all up to date... After my last update I said I would be delighted if I could maintain a ROI of 25 %. I didn't manage it but feel like things conspired against me at times with Cannon Fire, Snowy and Tarsus all running monster races and just getting touched off. A case of ifs/buts and maybes, but if they had gone in then I would have maintained a yield of 36 %...so close are the margins between success and failure when you consider their margins of defeat. A ROI of 12 % is still respectable I feel, but I personally think, with the early promise shown at the start of the thread, I should be looking to double that by the time I get to 100 bets. Unrealistic or ambitious? I dunno. NO. of bets: 51 Profit/loss: +6.3 pts ROI: +12.35 %

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 5.00 Uttoxeter A 3m handicap chase on Gd/Sft ground here, for horses rated 0-110 (class 4). The ones with winning form around the trip are Sesame Rambler (24f), Major Euro (23f), Extra Bold (24f), Strong Rebel (24f), Bernard (24f), Wednesday Country (24f), Classic Clover (26f), Mr Fluffy (25f), Green 'n' Gold (22f) and Caislean Na Dierge (24f). Sesame Rambler is 7 lbs higher than when winning at Fontwell over further in March but with a 7 lb claimer on top today the gap may be bridgeable. His best form seems to come at that track though and Uttoxeter, which is more galloping, may not necessarily be as likeable. Has form on soft ground so surface not an issue. Will appreciate step up in trip from lto. Major Euro won at the track last time out over slightly shorter and has been raised 10 lbs as a result. He ran on well that day, and should handle the different ground today bearing in mind he's won with cut before, but his latest rise means a few others may be better treated. Extra Bold is 8 lbs higher than when winning at Chepstow two starts ago over this trip. He ran here over further last time out when a bad jumping error hampered his chances. He is 7 and open to plenty more improvement, but perhaps firmer ground is more his ideal ground. Strong Rebel won a maiden point over 3m but is yet to win under rules. This is his chase debut, he hasn't done much over the smaller obstacles and is passed over. Bernard is raised 9 lb for his win over 3m at Exeter last time out and is an unexposed chaser that could feasibly defy that rise after only two starts over fences. He has won on GS in the past so this ground may be okay. His last win came as a surprise to his trainer as he had shown little at home, but if in the same mood today, could have a good chance. Wednesday Country is 12 lbs higher than his Kempton success in February. He was well beaten at Wincanton last time out but is 2-6 over fences and could pick up again at some point. Classic Clover has done his winning over further. He has a bit to prove after failing to complete on his last three starts. Mr Fluffy won here seven years ago but hasn't won since 2006 now. He handles soft and will see out the trip, but looks on the decline. He is ridiculously well handicapped on his old form but it remains doubtful he can run to anything like his old winning marks now. Green 'n' Gold won a pair of hurdles races here in 2006 but hasn't won since and she remains a 12 race maiden over the larger obstacles. She has bits and pieces of placed form off this sort of mark but may find a couple too good. Caislean Na Dierge has something to prove on the back of recent efforts. Suggested bets: Bernard - 7/1 Blue Sq, 0.7 pt Wednesday Country - 16/1 Blue Sq, 0.2 pt Green 'n' Gold - 9/1 Hills, 0.1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 3.50 Perth Native Coral - Trainer Nicky Richards has to be respected around here and the 11 yo has been in good shape this season, chasing home Big Fella Thanks and Ungaro in a listed handicap at Doncaster in January before winning over two and a half miles at this track last time out. The step up in trip is expected to suit as he stayed on well that day, and indeed, has won over 23f in the past so should see out three miles here. His course record is excellent, he has won three times here, and he is versatile going wise. 0.5 pt EW, 9/2 Bet 365 (1/4 odds, 4 places)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases The last one was a NR. 8.35 Sedgefield 13 runners line up for this class 4 (0-105) chase over 3m 3f. The runners with winning form around the trip are Palmers Peak (25f), Polar Gale (27f), Finbin (25f), Nicozetto (28f), Tully Hill (24f) and Celtic Flow (29f). Palmers Peak has been raised 8 lbs for his Wetherby win last time out. He had been dropping down the handicap prior to that win but stayed on gamely and showed when winning at Kelso he would get further. Cheekpieces (on again tonight) may have helped bring about some improvement and he is proven on GF ground. Polar Gale is a two time course and distance winner 11 lbs higher than when winning here in April. The ground is no problem and although his last effort (pulled up here over further) may be discounted on the basis of the GS ground, others are probably better handicapped. Finbin has only made one start over fences when unseating his rider at Hexham. A last time out win at Wetherby may have boosted his confidence again but his jumping must have improve now. Nicozetto has been raised only 5 lbs for a last time out win at Kelso and has benefitted from the application of a tongue strap of late. Racing at the back of the field, he stayed out of trouble last time, but a proven course winner that also has form on fast ground, he has to be respected. Tully Hill won an Irish point to point four years ago over slightly shorter but is yet to win under rules. He was behind Polar Gale over course and distance in April and a place may be the best he can hope for. Celtic Flow won over course and distance four years ago, but has only one once since (Wetherby '06). He was well beaten in recent starts, including when behind Polar Gale over course and distance recently, so is passed over. Suggested bets: Palmers Peak - 10/1 Blue Sq, 0.25 pt Polar Gale - 12/1 Blue Sq, 0.25 pt Nicozetto - 7/1 Blue Sq, 0.5 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases no return was made on that last race. I have a sneaky suspicion that this thread may be best left to the winter jumps, as things seem to have tailed off since the fast ground arrived. There are two staying chases tonight at Uttoxeter I'm gonna have a crack at though as things are still in profit for the time being. 6.55 Uttoxeter This is a novices handicap chase for runners rated 0-105 and is due to be run over 3m. The ones with winning form around the trip are Charles Street (22f), Changing Lanes (22f) and Prince de Bersy (23f). Charles Street has just two starts over fences to his name, and both came 12 months ago. Since then he has been running over hurdles and was successful off 100 in that sphere at Fontwell last November. He is rated 105 for fences, whether he has schooled better at home perhaps only the trainer knows. Changing Lanes makes his chase debut here but has been in good form recently, winning at Wetherby in May and is proven in quick conditions. He hinted at Wetherby that he'd get three miles and although he is another yet to make his mark in the chase sphere, this is a novices race and I am prepared to give him a go, hailing from the yard of the excellent Tim Vaughan. Prince de Bersy is a course winner here but remains an eight race maiden over fences. He has been well held off this sort of mark on this ground in recent starts and the other two appeal more. Suggested bets: Changing Lanes - 7/2 Sport Bet, 0.8 pt Charles Street - 13/2 VC Bet, 0.2 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 7.25 Uttoxeter Nine runners line up to face the starter over this 3m 2f trip. It looks a fiercely competitive handicap and the ones with winning form around the trip are Gallik Dawn (28f), Bernard (24f), Alfadora (26f), Waynesworld (28f), Mister Apple's (28f), Orchard House (26f) and Rash Moment (23f). Gallik Dawn is 9 lbs higher than when winning at Southwell last time out over 2f further. He had been threatening to score for a few runs prior to that, when placed in second at Bangor and Cheltenham, and is evidently enjoying his racing right now. However, at 11 yo, he may not be able to shrug off his latest rise as well as a younger horse would. He has course and distance winning form and acts on this ground. Bernard was a bit unfortunate to bump into Mr Fluffy last time out as that rival had looked out of form but was well handicapped as a result. Bernard runs off the same mark here as a result and despite the fact he is 9 lbs higher than his last win, he is unexposed over fences and may have more to offer. Having placed here last time he seems to act at the track and with an extra two furlongs expected to suit, some more improvement can't be ruled out. Alfadora won really well here over course and distance recently and is is only 8 lbs higher here. However, a jumping error saw him fall at Fakenham last time out and he needs to bounce back. Waynesworld is an experienced chase that has been successful at this track in the past. He runs off a mark of just 102 here, which is a stone lower than when placing at Bangor in Oct' 07, although his only recenty starts have come in hunter's chases. He showed up quite well last time out, but others appeal more. Mister Apples' won well at Kelso over slightly further and is only 3 lbs higher than that win. He has been competing in higher grades than this, and although beaten 40-lengths into second behind Ibberton last time out he has had a little break and may be able to return all guns blazing as his wins have tended to come on LH tracks. Orchard House is lightly raced over fences and has placed on both his starts so far, on his last two outings. He runs off 92 here, off which he was beaten at Carlisle last time out, but the trip and ground pose no problems, and he is expected to improve with experience, having been shown up by his inexperience a little last time out. Rash Moment is a course winner and is only 3 lbs higher than when successful at Chepstow in March. He was a little fortunate to win that day as the winner idled on the run in and he did have the Champ on board. Although he was well beaten here next time out, the trip would have likely been on the sharp side for him. He does, however, have a little to prove after pulled up over hurdles last time out. The ground surely cannot be blamed, as he has won on softer previously. Suggested bets: Mister Apple's - 9/1 Betfred, 0.45 pt Bernard - 6/1 Betfred, 0.25 pt Gallik Dawn - 9/2 Paddypower, 0.2 pt Orchard House - 9/1 Boylesports, 0.1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Results Update Mister Apples returned a 9/1 winner the other day under a terrific ride to produce a bit of profit since the last update. No. of bets: 55 Profit/loss: +6.8 pts ROI: +12.36 %

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 6.30 Southwell A 3m 2f handicap chase here with 9 runners set to face the starter. The ones with winning form around the trip are Marufo (26f), Super Judge (26f), Mandingo Chief (25f), Olay Olay (26f), Palmers Peak (25f), Sesame Rambler (27f) and Prey Bird (26f). Marufo won over course and distance in April off 9 lb lower and although disappointed at Bangor last time out, is still unexposed in this sphere after just five starts over fences. He seems a bit in and out as he learns the game, but Sam Thomas is an interesting jockey booking and if he jumps a little more cleanly he could run a race given he's proven over CD. Super Judge is consistent and regularly finishes around the frame. He's 10 lbs above his last win though, which came last May, and perhaps he may find one or two better handicapped again. Mandingo Chief won a four runner chase at Wetherby in April but was soundly beaten when raised 8 lbs and back into a larger field last time out at the same track. The 10 yo has had plenty of chase experience, but is 3 lbs aboe his highest ever winning mark. Olay Olay is 10 lbs higher than when winning at Wetherby in November 2007 but hasn't won since. He was well beaten on recent starts before being rested, and although he may have needed the run at Huntingdon last time out, he still may find a few others better handicapped. Palmers Peak won at Wetherby in April and is racing off an 8 lb higher mark now. He pulled up at Sedgefield last time out so has a little to prove. Sesame Rambler is 4 lbs higher than when winning at Fontwell in March and may have needed more of a stamina test when beaten over shorter on a couple of occassions of late. He's got more miles on the clock than some of these though and others have more room for improvement. Prey Bird is dropped 2 lbs after finishing 5th at Towcester last time out. He is yet to win in handicap company but hasnt had much racing and could have more to offer. However, his best bits of form have come on right handed, testing tracks, and Southwell is sharp and left handed. Suggested bet: 1 pt Marufo (price to be added in morning)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 4/1 SJ, 1 pt win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

6.30 Southwell Marufo won over course and distance in April off 9 lb lower and although disappointed at Bangor last time out, is still unexposed in this sphere after just five starts over fences. He seems a bit in and out as he learns the game, but Sam Thomas is an interesting jockey booking and if he jumps a little more cleanly he could run a race given he's proven over CD. Suggested bet: 1 pt Marufo (price to be added in morning)

Cynics may argue he was gifted the race after Bantry Bere fell two out, but Marufo was tanking along at that point and disputing the lead at the point of the fall. I personally though Sam Thomas was just a passenger there, Marufo travelled like the best horse in the race throughout, and although his winning margin would have been less than sixth lengths had Bantry Bere stayed on his feet, I think Heather Dalton's runner had always had enough in reserve to make it 2-2 over CD. Returned a 5/1 winner.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Nice one mate, I wasn't so sure if it would win if BB had stayed up but its very hard to tell as Marufo was going very well.

[bowles10]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases well done & a nice price also :clap

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Cheers guys. I'll do a proper update with the usual tables when I get chance, but there isn't any NH racing today so will save for another time.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 7.40 Uttoxeter The ones with winning form around the 3m trip are Saucy Bingo (24f), El Bandindos (25f), Ngong Hills (25f), Go West (26f), Stop The Show (24f), Chevaux Loco (24f), Kisha King (24f), Classic Rock (24f), Jorverybrook (24f), Dasher Reilly (23f), Rich Nomad (24f) and Good Man Again (24f). Saucy Bingo won when last seen at Newcastle, but that came 423 days ago and on heavy ground. This is also his chase debut, so thats enough things to prove for me. El Bandindos has been progressing nicely over hurdles, winning his last two off 98 and 109 and he is rated 1 lb higher here for what is his chase debut. However, he too is another returning from a lengthy break. Is a course winner though. Ngong Hills has been in good heart of late, winning at Perth and then Wetherby in May. He has only been raised 4 lb from the latest of those wins, and given he has won on a left handed, fairly galloping track at Wetherby, I think he will also be suited to Uttoxeter. Go West is eased down 3 lbs in the handicap but has been soundly beaten of late and others appeal plenty more. Stop The Show is yet to win over fences but he has been running with promise and this is only his eigth start over the larger obstacles. He has a couple of bits of placed form in novice handicaps off this sort of mark, and connections will hope the step up in trip can finally see him in the winners enclosure. Would probably welcome a bit of rain. Chevaux Loco won a handicap chase at Cork two years ago but was out of form when last seen (albeit over shorter) and returns from a 284-day break. Kisha King has never won under rules but has been getting close of late, albeit over hurdles last time out at Newton Abbot. Others appeal more though. Classic Rock has won here over hurdles and has ran several good races over fences too, including over CD the last twice. However, he returns from a 384-day break so fitness has to be taken on trust. If all is well, he should be involved. Jorveybrook is an unexposed chaser that put behind him a disapppointing effort on his chase debut to win at Newcastle in March next time out. He is only 7 lbs higher here and although he pulled up behind Chernik at Carlisle last time out, it wouldn't be a great surprise to see him bounce back. Dasher Reilly has been mixing AW and NH racing but hasn't done anything noteworthy in recent outings. Also races from out the handicap. Good Man Again is officially rated just 53 so races from way out of the handicap here. He is very hard to recommend on that basis. Rich Nomad has never won under rules, returns from a break and also races from out of the handicap so is passed over. Suggested bets Jorveybrook 11/2 Hills, 0.7 pt Stop The Show 9/2 Paddy, 0.2 pt Classic Rock 9/1 Sky, 0.1 pt

[Treviticus]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Alcatras and September Moon, both e/w, for 16:30 Hereford today? Doing 2m6f+ handicaps for the last few weeks myself (started with Chabrimal Minster on 27th May) amn't doing too badly - Initial stake of 20 is now 80.68. The other two I had on a four horse shortlist for today were Orchard House and Keltic Lord.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Alcatras and September Moon' date=' both e/w, for 16:30 Hereford today? Doing 2m6f+ handicaps for the last few weeks myself (started with Chabrimal Minster on 27th May) amn't doing too badly - Initial stake of 20 is now 80.68. The other two I had on a four horse shortlist for today were Orchard House and Keltic Lord.[/quote'] Good work quadruplıng the bank Trev. Apologıes for the late reply, Ill be pıckıng thıs thread back up agaın from Sat onwards but havent had any tıme to study chase handıcaps for a whıle so ıts been on the backburner.

[Treviticus]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Ta very much. Next one's the Summer National on Sunday as far as I can see.

[Treviticus]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Sea Wall might hack up here but I'm going to select from Rakalackey, Fourty Acers and The King of Angels when I see their respective odds. Had L'Aventure on the shortlist too but I might swerve it based on the ground, time of year and fact that it hasn't won in ages. Any ideas Fintron?

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases gonna do an indepth write up in the morning Trev so will see if we find a few we commonly like. Seems ages since i've studied a chase!

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Interesting they sent brotenstown over from ireland..its a decent animal but connections must thing it will get of trip,out of presenting maybe worth an ew play at 8-1.. gl fintron and all:nana

[Treviticus]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Starting with a 90 quid balance: 7 e/w Fourty Acers 7/1, 5 e/w Rakalackey 14/1, 5 e/w The King of Angels 25/1 all GP, for what it's worth... probably not much.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 4.25 Uttoxter – Summer National

A listed handicap chase over 3m 4f here at the Midlands track. The ones with winning form around the trip are Seymour Weld (26f), Bother Na (25f), King Barry (25f), Rackalackey (26f), Take the Stand (33f), Keenan’s Future (30f), Prestbury Kinight (26f), Victor Daly (25f), The King of Angels (28f), Fourty Acers (25f), L’Aventure (30f) and Sea Wall (26f).

Seymour Weld has run here plenty of times previously over hurdles, including when winning in May ’07 and placed here in a novices chase last May. He has made an impressive start to his chase career with five wins from ten races (although he infamously won at Market Rasen in a four runner race when all his opponents fell at the first and he was left in the lead!!), and although fell at Worcester last time out when denied the four timer, is probably worth another chance after his previous promise. It remains to be seen whether 135 is a fair rating as he is lightly raced in chase handicaps.

Bother Na comes over from Ireland and is 4 lbs higher than when 3rd of 24 at Punchestown last time out. He hasn’t won since 2006 though, which is slightly offputting despite a fair effort last time out. He would probably appreciate a bit of rain.

King Barry is the mount of Timmy Murphy and runs off 130, 10 lbs higher than his Ayr win in December, although he did place in second (btn 7l) off this mark at Doncaster in February. He wasn’t disgraced in the Scottish National (7th) last time out although some of these look stronger stayers.

Rackalackey is 6 lbs higher than when successful at Fakenham last time out but he has a decent strike rate over fences (4-17) and was third in this race (when ran over 33f) last year which suggests he handles this track. All of his wins have come at a lower level though and the suspicion is that he may find a few others too good.

Take The Stand is an experienced jumper that has been running in hunters chases this season. He won at Hexham over shorter last time out but should cope with this step back up in trip judging by previous wins over 24-33f. He runs off a mark of 126 here, and was soundly beaten off 4 lb lower when last seen in a handicap, so is passed over.

Keenan’s Future outlined his staying power when successful off 8 lb lower at Warwich in May over 29f. He won in decent fashion that day, but running off this mark in better company, others appeal more as a main bet.

Prestbury Knight is sent out by Nigel Twiston-Davies and has a pleasing strike rate over fences of 3-8. He is 8 lbs higher than when winning at Ludlow in May over slightly shorter (26f) but appears to save his best form for right handed tracks with all recent wins coming at Ludlow, Market Rasen and Perth.

Victor Daly has made good progress for Heather Dalton this term and is one of the lesser exposed runners in the field. The eight year old won at Southwell in March and is a mere two pounds higher here, although he was rather fortunate to score that day. He ran out of gas at Worcester last time out but does get further than the 23f he was attempting that day. A career best would be needed to take this, but he does act left handed and is open to further improvement, especially off this sort of mark. Although his recent Southwell wins aren’t world beating form, the form of his Aintree form reads well and a decent jockey booking is potentially informative.

The King of Angels is 8 lb higher than when winning over this trip at Stratford in 2007 but hasn’t won since. He placed at Cheltenham in Oct 08 off a 3 lb higher mark and wasn’t disgraced at Stratford last time out when fifth and close up to Presbury Knight. However, plenty more is needed here.

Fourty Acers returns from a lengthy break but would be interesting if there was market support as he has won here over shorter, was fourth in the race last year and was running in some valuable races when last seen. He is 3-10 over fences and judging by two wins off 4 lb lower he looks well handicapped now.

L’Aventure is an experienced chaser formerly with Paul Nicholls. Now with Nick Williams, she placed off her current mark at Hereford in March and is unlikely to be fazed by the trip. She has a win and numerous bits of placed form here over fences but at ten, after 52 starts, may be vulnerable to one or two of the younger ones.

Sea Wall heads the market and trained by Jonjo O’Neill and ridden by the champ, is likely to be a warm order. He won at Ffos Las last time out over three miles to write himself into the history books as the first chase winner at the Welsh track. He has been raised 10 lbs for this now though and this represents a leap in class from the 0-115 last time. He seems to act both left and right handed and has been developing a bit of consistency, having made the frame on all of his last three starts. Suggested bets: Victor Daly - 20/1 Paddy, 0.5 pt Sea Wall - 9/2 Paddy, 0.2 pt King Barry - 10/1 Betfred, 0.1 pt Keenan's Future - 12/1 Paddy, 0.1 pt Fourty Acers - 8/1 Paddy, 0.1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Trev & The Boy Rooney, good luck with your picks lads. It looks a fascinating race, there isn't much to split most of these by the look of it is there, but I like the fact Dalton has booked Thomas for Victor Daly as they teamed up for me on Marufo recently, and this was a horse that won for me when kicking off this thread so I hold a bit of a soft spot. Only 2 lbs above his last winning mark and proven left handed 20/1 is too big I feel, and could even be backed as a 5 % saver with other picks.

[Treviticus]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Hope you're wrong Fintron! L'Aventure and Victor Daly would be the two that would annoy me most if they won, having had them both before. Can't have them all though, so better stick to what I've got. Good luck all.

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases I remember that one too Fin, I had Victor Daly that day too, a couple fell and left us an easy run in that day IIRC. One you didn't mention that I like a lot is Emma Lavelle's FIRE AND RAIN, which would appreciate the going if it's still good or gf, but definitely not if it's on the soft side. Won over 3m in April, had a recent sharpener at Royal Ascot.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

I remember that one too Fin, I had Victor Daly that day too, a couple fell and left us an easy run in that day IIRC. One you didn't mention that I like a lot is Emma Lavelle's FIRE AND RAIN, which would appreciate the going if it's still good or gf, but definitely not if it's on the soft side. Won over 3m in April, had a recent sharpener at Royal Ascot.

Well done mate, lovely winner :clap The reason I didn't mention it is because it was what this thread classes a statisical freak. 82 % of horses in my study had winning form within 3f of the distance in question and if i remember rightly, Fire And Rain hadn't won beyond 3m so never formed part of my analysis. Anyway, well done with that winner, he was certainly open to plenty more improvement. Thread stats now stand at: No. of bets: 58 Profit/loss: +9.8 pts ROI: +17 %

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Starting with a 90 quid balance: 7 e/w Fourty Acers 7/1' date=' 5 e/w Rakalackey 14/1, 5 e/w The King of Angels 25/1 all GP, for what it's worth... probably not much.[/quote'] well done with two places as well Trev; 25/1 and 14/1...nice :clap