Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

[lunatism]

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) me and Goon we wondering if the Rot-Weiss Ahlen game was postponed because we couldn't find it on bwin after i'd posted the selections. But it's very much on, and at half time the score is 2-0, so very much good news if they can "hang on" (or even better, improve upon) their lead...... Murcia AH did change, it now sits at -2.50 with odds of 1.73. If you managed to get the earlier odds (as I did), good for you, if not i'd give this match a new strength of 6 (dropped from 7), but they should still be able to make the 3 goal win that -2.50 suggests. If you're a nervous soul, take the fixed odds at 1.12/1.13 - it's not exactly value, but this time aren't exactly going to struggle against a team who lost 7-0 in their last game (at home too) while they themselves won 6-0 in their last-but-one home fixture!

[alexmac]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Crikey - how did I miss this thread....? Fantastic effort loony! Keep up the great work and all the best with your picks.

[lunatism]

[dustbin2]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) unlucky m8, end of season does throw up some dodgy results:sad I had a bit of luck and only got on the German game as betfair didnt have the murcia one so made a bit of profit. System still looking strong...roll on next season Loon:ok

[palaceman]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

I had a bit of luck and only got on the German game

I suspect a lot of us only got on the German game as (by the time most tried on Pinnacle) the other match required a rather unappealing three goal win. No system is infallible, Loon. The odd reverse is inevitable. The measure of a good system (as this seems to be) is how well it overcomes the reverses. Keep it up :ok

[happygooner]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Not to worry loon, you still got an 84% s/r with average odds around 1.6:ok Most people would kill for that haha!

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) end of season factor is one reason why there are less selections from the UK lately, but i guess i can't spot (and avoid) them all. Good thing about this, is that it should run year round, and as soon as the Swedish/Norwegian/Russian leagues kick fully into their seasons, there should again be more selections throughout the week :)

[dustbin2]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Top news m8 wasnt looking forward to the end of the season, you any thoughts on the Austrailian leagues when all the major leagues are done? I had some success with them last year. Anyway congratulations on having your name up in lights on the forums scroll of honour :clap Fame at last Loon :nana

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

Top news m8 wasnt looking forward to the end of the season' date=' you any thoughts on the Austrailian leagues when all the major leagues are done? I had some success with them last year. Anyway congratulations on having your name up in lights on the forums scroll of honour :clap Fame at last Loon :nana[/quote'] haha - it was nagging by a certain few guys on the PL Scroller thread that did it i think :unsure The one Austrailian league that is covered is the A-League, but i just noticed (as in....you mentioned it and I checked them out again on soccerway) that soccerway now have 6 additional leagues (inc. Victorian Premier League). So at some midweek point (when there are no selections for a few days). I'll bring those into the system too. And i'll consider bringing in some of the South American ones too (but most likely I won't bother with them)

[happygooner]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

haha - it was nagging by a certain few guys on the PL Scroller thread that did it i think :unsure The one Austrailian league that is covered is the A-League' date= but i just noticed (as in....you mentioned it and I checked them out again on soccerway) that soccerway now have 6 additional leagues (inc. Victorian Premier League). So at some midweek point (when there are no selections for a few days). I'll bring those into the system too. And i'll consider bringing in some of the South American ones too (but most likely I won't bother with them)

What about MLS?

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

What about MLS?

i think there was a generally good reason why i chose not to include it before.....except it escapes me. i'll look into that again though:ok

[happygooner]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

i think there was a generally good reason why i chose not to include it before.....except it escapes me. i'll look into that again though:ok

Probably because the quality isn't really there and you may as well as back schoolboy football haha! Anyway, where are you mate? Interesting data to share:)

[palaceman]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Time to change your User Name? :(

[Grex]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

Time to change your User Name? :(

That´s not very nice, Palaceman. Even as a fervent Man United fan, I have to admit that Arsenal were unlucky not to come away with at least a point (even if their goal looked suspiciously like another "Hand of God" :eek). You have to question Wenger´s team selection.... to prefer Eboue to Walcott is unbelievable. :loon Anyway, United got the result, and should go on to win the Premiership. :clap But I think HappyGooner can hold his head high... and continue to be "happy" :D

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

That´s not very nice, Palaceman. Even as a fervent Man United fan, I have to admit that Arsenal were unlucky not to come away with at least a point (even if their goal looked suspiciously like another "Hand of God" :eek). You have to question Wenger´s team selection.... to prefer Eboue to Walcott is unbelievable. :loon Anyway, United got the result, and should go on to win the Premiership. :clap But I think HappyGooner can hold his head high... and continue to be "happy" :D

got to go with Grex here - last time they came to Old Trafford Arse were battered, this time they put up a good performance, of course they were always going to lose, but at least they were creative in their style of loss! Wenger did not at all help with his team selection, why sacrifice the experience of Toure to full back? Song almost cost Arsenal a few more goals if it wasn't for Lehman doing his crazy best! But i'm sure it was just a harmless poke by palaceman at the Arsenal machine which seems to have slowed to a halt since February. ....just talking about names - are you a Palace fan then?

[Grex]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

just talking about names - are you a Palace fan then?

If so, and with Palace in a play-off position, perhaps he should change his name to Over-the-moon-Palaceman :D

[palaceman]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

If so' date=' and with Palace in a play-off position, perhaps he should change his name to Over-the-moon-Palaceman :D[/quote'] I wasn't poking fun at happygooner. They were very unlucky today. I just felt he had every reason not to be happy. That's how I would feel. And yes, I'm a Palace season ticket holder - a sad individual who makes 150 mile round trips to home games. Difficult to see how they can remain 6th though, with their next two games both being away - to Hull & Watford :cry- whilst Wolves have 4 home games left.

[the duck]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

haha - it was nagging by a certain few guys on the PL Scroller thread that did it i think :unsure The one Austrailian league that is covered is the A-League' date= but i just noticed (as in....you mentioned it and I checked them out again on soccerway) that soccerway now have 6 additional leagues (inc. Victorian Premier League). So at some midweek point (when there are no selections for a few days). I'll bring those into the system too. And i'll consider bringing in some of the South American ones too (but most likely I won't bother with them)

Lunatism in all honesty i would be very wary of even touching VPL or incorporating it into a system. I have a few mates who play in it and it is far from an unprofessional league that can be counted upon to be predicatable. But if you do decide to incorporate VPL make sure it is the lowest Australian League you touch because after that it is danger. Just thought i'd save you from some possible danger. cheers.

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

Lunatism in all honesty i would be very wary of even touching VPL or incorporating it into a system. I have a few mates who play in it and it is far from an unprofessional league that can be counted upon to be predicatable. But if you do decide to incorporate VPL make sure it is the lowest Australian League you touch because after that it is danger. Just thought i'd save you from some possible danger. cheers.

well that's as good a reason as any to avoid it ;) But would you say that the due to it being far from predictable, that the bookies would offer higher odds?

[the duck]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

well that's as good a reason as any to avoid it ;) But would you say that the due to it being far from predictable' date= that the bookies would offer higher odds?

In all honesty i laughed the first time i saw these matches being offered. They are unpredicatble in terms of looking at form and streaks but predictable if you know your stuff and attend matches.

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

In all honesty i laughed the first time i saw these matches being offered. They are unpredicatble in terms of looking at form and streaks but predictable if you know your stuff and attend matches.

rght, well i guess the best way to look at this would be to test this out them. I know this might be a hard question to answer, but since i work with numbers and percentages.....if you believe streaks and form dont lend a hand to predicted these games, and that local knowledge is the key - what percentage of accuracy do you think you would have over AI on this then? :tongue2 eg.....my system says home win, you say draw - what percentage of the time do you think you would be right and my system wrong? reason i ask is the following, if you were able to provide me with your personal predictions for these games, i would be able to contrast these with what my system would generate (i would of course pass these predictions onto you for scrutinisation aswell), and then after a set number of games we'd be able to see whether it was worth including certain leagues or not.

[the duck]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

rght' date= well i guess the best way to look at this would be to test this out them. I know this might be a hard question to answer, but since i work with numbers and percentages.....if you believe streaks and form dont lend a hand to predicted these games, and that local knowledge is the key - what percentage of accuracy do you think you would have over AI on this then? :tongue2 eg.....my system says home win, you say draw - what percentage of the time do you think you would be right and my system wrong? reason i ask is the following, if you were able to provide me with your personal predictions for these games, i would be able to contrast these with what my system would generate (i would of course pass these predictions onto you for scrutinisation aswell), and then after a set number of games we'd be able to see whether it was worth including certain leagues or not.

Yeah that would be good. If you pm me your email adress and we will talk later in the week when the full matches are up.

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

Yeah that would be good. If you pm me your email adress and we will talk later in the week when the full matches are up.

well first off i'll need to add the leagues to processing spreadsheet (which will take ages....and i've not the time until the weekend since i'm travelling around a bit from tomorrow), but as soon as i've done that, i'll get in touch.

[888]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Good thread and system, keep it up! Just popped in to say hi :) Looking forward for your next post lunatism!

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

Good thread and system, keep it up! Just popped in to say hi :) Looking forward for your next post lunatism!

thanks for the interest! unfortunately, next group of selections won't be until the weekend. Good news is that three of them are VERY STRONG predictions, so should be something to smile about :eek

[happygooner]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

I wasn't poking fun at happygooner. They were very unlucky today. I just felt he had every reason not to be happy. That's how I would feel. And yes, I'm a Palace season ticket holder - a sad individual who makes 150 mile round trips to home games. Difficult to see how they can remain 6th though, with their next two games both being away - to Hull & Watford :cry- whilst Wolves have 4 home games left.

More like resigned to the worstgooner if i'm honest haha!!

[palaceman]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) LOL :ok And as WBA beat Wolves tonight, I'm HappyPalaceman. (At least until Saturday)

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) and what should that make me then? (a Wolves fan who couldn't quite get some tickets for last night)......an AnnoyedLunatism? (this could carry on all season i guess :))

[palaceman]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Really sorry mate. I had no idea you were a Wolves fan. I've actually got quite a soft spot for Wolves as I've known their Assistant Manager for a number of years. I see you have the good sense not to try and predict any match in The Championship ;)