lunatism Posted February 17, 2008 Author Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) damn it - know what i just found out? that one of my selections for today happened to play yesterday. not only that, but they won, not only that, but the score prediction was spot on ..... that's a lot soccerway :@ in the next hour or so, i'll be posting up any selections that are left for today. i'm no cheat - i won't be adding this game to my stats or selection data, but i'm just letting you know what it was. chose to believe me or not, but this is a game that my system had generated for today: 17/02/08 Belgian 2e klasse KVSK United Overpelt-Lommel v KFC Verbroedering Geel 5 v 19 28 2 - 0 H 74% 20% 7% (sorry for loss of table structure...firefox error - but not too important anyway - just wanted you lot to see the selection) .....hopefully the selection(s) for today fare just as well as that game did! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 17, 2008 Author Share Posted February 17, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 17, 2008 Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Hi Loon, just finally having the time to read your system through. Impressive and thorough( as if it could be anything else ). Will keep following with interest.:hope GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 17, 2008 Author Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Hi Loon' date=' just finally having the time to read your system through. Impressive and thorough( as if it could be anything else ). Will keep following with interest.:hope GL[/quote'] haha, thanks Dusty...you must have put aside some hours (and a bit more) to read through all the tripe on here!! thanks for the support :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 17, 2008 Author Share Posted February 17, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 19, 2008 Author Share Posted February 19, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) shame, no selections for today - but seems there WILL be a handful for the weekend, so not to worry :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 22, 2008 Author Share Posted February 22, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 22, 2008 Author Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: 22-02-08 (Selection Day 16) Certainly the fact that Luton have 1 point from their last 9 games will help! A word of caution though. In their last 3 home games Swansea have only won by a single goal. then last Tuesday in the JPT they lost 0-1 at home to MK Dons. They may therefore be struggling to win by big scores at home where presumably opponents are now always fielding a blanket defence against them. my system only looks at stats though, and stats say that the most likely score is 2-0....and this selection didn't come up as an orange selection (perhaps due to similar reasons!?.......not sure). but my system doesn't just look at one team in a fixture, it looks at both, so it's saying that luton are most likely to score 0, aswell as conceding two against THIS side, while Swansea are most likely to score 2, while conceding 0 against THIS side - it's not just based on a single variable. luton have failed to score in 47% of their away games, while Swansea have only failed to score 3 times at home this season. Swansea have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 9 home matches, while Luton have conceded 13 in their last 6 games (including a hammering by Hartlepool in their last outing). plus Luton will be without Steve Robinson, Dean Morgan & Paul Peschisolido for the match. They have only one recognised centre-back at the club (Chris Perry), and he's only just come back from injury, and is not completely match fit (playing only a few minutes of their defeat to Leyton Orient). Swansea are the top scorers in the league, and being as Scotland is fit (15 goals so far this season, and the leagues top scorer), who's scored 4 in the last 6 league games (including a brace away to Port Vale), it's hard to see how he couldn't manage a few more goals against a Luton side short of defensive cover who have let in 26 goals on the road this season and are officially the worst away team in the league (according to the away league table). but thanks for the input anyway - i'll never override the subjective workings of my system though :tongue2 (it would never work out in the long term) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) I'm sure you're right to rely on your stats. It's just a question perhaps of the weighting given to the whole season's stats as against recent stats. I guess I was a bit influenced (probably wrongly) about what i was told about the match in midweek. I live just outside Milton Keynes (I don't support them - I'm a saddo who has a season ticket for a club 75 miles away) and a number of my friends travelled down to Wales for the Swansea v MK Dons JLT match on Tuesday, and told me Swansea gave quite a weary performance in their surprising defeat against the League 2 club. But then again, on recent stats you wouldn't expect Luton to hold a blind ladies team to a single goal :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 22, 2008 Author Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) I'm sure you're right to rely on your stats. It's just a question perhaps of the weighting given to the whole season's stats as against recent stats. recent stats (last 6 games) show luton bottom of the form table, while swansea are second though! but i know what you mean, i don't think the home win is in question here, more the chances of a 2 goal win or not, and i'm thinking they can manage it (well, whether I think it or not is irrelevant, my system computes it, and i have made the decision to go by whatever it says :unsure) I guess I was a bit influenced (probably wrongly) about what i was told about the match in midweek. I live just outside Milton Keynes (I don't support them - I'm a saddo who has a season ticket for a club 75 miles away) and a number of my friends travelled down to Wales for the Swansea v MK Dons JLT match on Tuesday' date=' and told me Swansea gave quite a weary performance in their surprising defeat against the League 2 club.[/quote'] not that this should have any bearing on the coming result at all, but the last time Swansea were shoved out of the cup unexpectedly (4-2 to Havant) they went on to win exactly 2-0 in their next game and total 8 goals in the 3 matches that followed (but hey, not even knocked out of the JPT....yet, and Roberto Martinez stilkl thinks that they'll progress anyway...). i guess what you could read into these cup exits is that the coach isn't really cup orientated, and cares a lot more about the league???? (not sure though, would have to ask a swansea fan) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Yep :hope for tonight. You got anything planned for tomorrow? I think Swansea are pretty keen to beat MK Dons, and I expect them to really go for it in the second leg next week. The winner goes to Wembley, and whilst the JPT is of little interest to the top two divisions it is taken pretty seriously in the lower leagues, especially by this stage. MK Dons took nearly a thousand fans to Swansea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 22, 2008 Author Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Yep :hope for tonight. You got anything planned for tomorrow? at the minute, it looks like 2 for tomorrow and 4 for sunday, but things could change after tonights results so i'm sitting on them until late this evening (probably after midnight) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Cheers mate. Just out of interest, the reason I asked is that I'm in a betting competition on my football team's website, and I've been using some of your selections in the competition! I'll be leaving home at around 9:15 tomorrow, so look forward to seeing a couple before then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 22, 2008 Author Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Cheers mate. Just out of interest' date=' the reason I asked is that I'm in a betting competition on my football team's website, and I've been using some of your selections in the competition! I'll be leaving home at around 9:15 tomorrow, so look forward to seeing a couple before then![/quote'] interesting! but doesn't this competition have any specific league criteria then ? (since my selections are from all over the place....especially so this weekend) i wish you luck in your competition anyway :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) No, it's just for fun - and braggers rights. You can choose any sport to bet on - not just football - as long as you can quote a bookie's price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 22, 2008 Author Share Posted February 22, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 24, 2008 Author Share Posted February 24, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 24, 2008 Author Share Posted February 24, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) DATE LEAGUE FIXTURE RATING LEAGUE PREDICTION SELECTION 1 X 2 SYSTEM STRENGTH FIXED AH AH ODDS STAKE BOOKIE 24/02/08 French CFA 2 - Groupe H UJA Alfortville v AS Ifs 34 2 v 16 2 - 0 H 73% 24% 3% LSS 7 --- --- --- --- --- 24/02/08 Scottish Premier League Glasgow Rangers v Gretna FC 30 1 v 12 2 - 0 H 78% 20% 2% LSS 7 1.08 2.25 (0: 2 1/4) 1.85 7.25 Pinnacle (AH) 24/02/08 Turkish Turkcell Süper Lig Galatasaray v Kasimpasa 35 1 v 18 2 - 0 H 74% 25% 1% LSS 7 1.15 1.75 (0: 1 3/4) 1.79 8.08 Pinnacle (AH) right, as you will notice, the first match is French CFA 2...no odds available, but thought i should just put it up anyway so you know exactly what my system is saying :ok no entirely comfortable taking two AH (just because my system is mainly geared towards the Fixed odds, and to have all AH in one day seems to be going against that).....but i'm confident at least one can come in. The hardest (on paper) seems to be the Rangers one, where the predicted scoreline is only 2-0...they will need to beat this to ensure it's not another 1/2 stake return as with the Swansea game. Galatasary should win their fixture by the 2 goals required! good luck for later.....sorry about the late post ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 25, 2008 Author Share Posted February 25, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 28, 2008 Author Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) right ladies and gents, we have a full weekend ahead of us.....looks like 7 - 11 selections for Saturday and Sunday...and there is a Romanian Liga III - Seria 2 fixture tomorrow.....but i can't find it on bWin, so let's call it a miss. I'll post the weekend's lot sometime tomorrow after 2pm (could be late though...so don't hold your breath) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 29, 2008 Author Share Posted February 29, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) ....ok selections WILL be late, there actually are some games tonight that might affect things so i've had to put the updating on selections on hold for a "little" while, plus i've been at the track at Wolverhampton (and a good day too ;)), so not been back too long. check back later :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 1, 2008 Author Share Posted March 1, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 2, 2008 Author Share Posted March 2, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 2, 2008 Author Share Posted March 2, 2008 02-03-08 (Selection Day 20) DATE LEAGUE FIXTURE RATING LEAGUE PREDICTION SELECTION 1 X 2 SYSTEM STRENGTH FIXED AH AH ODDS STAKE BOOKIE 02/03/08 German Oberliga - NOFV Nord Greifswalder SV 04 v Berlin Ankaraspor 07 31 5 v 15 2 - 0 H 65% 23% 12% LSS 7 --- --- --- --- --- 02/03/08 Spanish Tercera Division - Group 3 (Cantabria) Real Racing Club de Santander II v Atletico Albericia 26 4 v 18 2 - 0 H 69% 24% 7% LSS 6 1.07 2.25 (0: 2 1/4) 1.88 5.79 Pinnacle (AH) 02/03/08 Spanish Tercera Division - Group 11 (Balears) Club Deportivo Atlético Baleares v CD Margaritense 34 1 v 18 2 - 0 H 72% 26% 3% LSS 7 1.11 2.25 (0: 2 1/4) 2.23 6.28 Pinnacle (AH) right, two eligible selections today, although bWin normally cover NOFV Nord, for some reason they don't have today's fixtures. I'm not worried about Racing and Baleares winning, however, the extent of their wins i wonder about, and am tempted to go against the 3 goals wins here...so I DO!! The reason i've taken this (proabably foolish) stance, is that looking back over past results, there aren't winners when the AH has said 3+ goals in contrast to 2 goals predicted by the system (get that?)... So i guess going out on a limb today to trial a new idea! As i said before, both should win...3 goals though, not sure :eek GOOD LUCK!!!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 2, 2008 Author Share Posted March 2, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) i hope that any of you guys who follow selections on here managed to understand what i wrote earlier.....? since although both won (as i was sure they would), neither won by the three goals that the AH set, and so by going against the AH, the system has managed 2/2 from eligible selections today. :nana:nana as soon as the Greifswalder game finishes, i'll put up the stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 2, 2008 Author Share Posted March 2, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Doing great, keep up the good work Luna :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Top results Loon, very impressed with the orange system, :cow thought you meant you were opposing the AH bt didnt get on them as I was not sure.:loon Keep it up m8:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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