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About lunatism

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 09/21/1987

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  1. Hi , is it possible to send me the complete article on Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament ?

    The link I found on Google has most of the information but some is still missing (for example the most crucial bit where you  pasted the macro!). Thank you!

  2. hi pal. 

    Is it possible to send me the articles that you had written about web scraping?

    Thanks for advance.

  3. Hi, A few years back you posted a macro for scraping data from Betexplorer.com

    I have used this ever since for my betting and found it to be a great tool.

    However much to my frustration, they have altered the website, meaning the macro no longer works.

    You don't seem to be on here anymore, but please if you get my message could you please take a look at it.

    I'm assuming it will be a small alteration in the macro, but unfortunately I am not a macro wizard like yourself.


    Many thanks




      It works fine for downloading results from a particular league



      then scraping. However when trying to scrap all results for all leagues for a particular day, it no longer works:

  4. merhaba ben bet365 oranlarını  excele aktarma istiyorum bana bu konuda yardmcı olurmunsuz

    hergün günecllemek  istiyorum  aşağıdaki dosya örnek bir dosya hazırladım

    onun gibi olmaısnı istiyorum  bu şeklide yapabilirmiyiz bir bot dosayısı eklenebilirmi?

    saygılar görüşmek üzere

    mail adresim


    yapılacak bet 365 oranları.xlsx

    1. Ezone


      Nice format you have got.
      @lunatism, were you able to scrap the data on the excel sheet?

  5. Re: Best system to use for a newbie Froment, You've written a great post, and I hope that lots of newbies to PL and to betting can make good use of it! I just wanted to add, in reference to this paragraph... Some people, in order to feel 100% sure (you can never be 100% about a bet, but you can "feel" 100% confident that you have a good system...whether that's wise or not, I don't know), will collect data from previous seasons and analyse those statistics and do a "dry run" of bets over a given period of time. We call this backtesting. Backtesting is a core part of any system developme
  6. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) Well, it seems that "value" bets using the odds set by Betfair were a bust! Italy, England didn't qualify and Costa Rica didn't finish bottom (and all at fairly short odds). The only winning forecasts were that Ghana would finish bottom and that France would win their group! So, two wins out of eight based on value solely from Betfair odds. A return of -4.16pts! What does this say about just following the odds in order to select group winners from a World Cup? Not a good idea :lol In defence of Betfair, th
  7. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) Appreciated, the idea of modelling a series of games in such a simple way had occurred to me before, but I'd never actually tried it out. I don't think that the bookies odds will turn out to be to useful for predicting the winner (i've proceeding with modelling the rest of the tournament, for my own amusement), but this is definitely a good starting point for people who are frustrated at those "random" results screwing up their predictions. I believe that there does need to be a "random" element accounted for
  8. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Simple question here (i think I can guess the answer though...i'm in your brain :loon)...if the MLS had returned 10 winners from 10 picks, would you be considering dropping it? If The only reason you are dropping it, is because the results are bad, and then you looked for a reason why it could be underperforming as a reason to drop it, it's not a good tactic. You'll end up add condition after condition in order to keep a good average. If you're going to drop the MLS (or any league), it should be on sound logic. If it's because of the playoffs, why does your s
  9. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) The model sheet was about experimenting...in C, I had the FIFA ranking (as a reference point), I just didn't mention that when I was listing the sheet columns. So ye, that would be right...except in my one, had the C column taken up, so it was in D. I should probably make another change to the guide, in case people get confused ;) After all, the row heading that that cell is referencing is D1 because in my sheet I had "1" in D1 and "FIFA" in C1, which is not what I suggested doing in the setup section.... You
  10. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) Spot on! I noticed it as soon as you said it...my bad :spank I've edited the first post to reflect it. I changed the sheet name while I was making the tutorial, and I forgot to check the links (since Excel auto-updates all the formalae when you rename an already existent workbook) Non taken at all, you've spotted an error and it was something I didn't see, you've done everyone who's tried to use this a favour! :clap (the reason for the space, was because of the editing recognising that is automatic,
  11. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System it's possible to save an awful lot of time by ignoring cup games, if you collect your data from Football-data and just look at league games...since, that's all they have :D
  12. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System I'm not after your system, just the logic behind your numbers, because if 30 works, why not 35/45/50, etc. I look at it like this, on it's own, a specific number is not magical, there has to be something further than simply "30 games played", otherwise, what's the difference between 25 wins out of 30 and 38/45 and 63/75? A few decimal places (if you're working on %). You might find that 30 games works in one league, but 15 or 45 in another. It's something i've looked into before, nothing conclusive. All i'd say is that the 6 game form tables are not very usefu
  13. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System why did you choose 30 games? where did you get your data parameter ideas from? (i ask this because it sounds similar to what i've read on SoccerWidow) Have you looked at the difference between including and discounting H2H games? (ditto for H2H cup games) Final question (for now :p), are you using poisson?
  14. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Sure you're right - small sample size, but sounds promising. All that you're using is results? I guess getting the results is the easy part, but the H2H make it tricky? What happens if the last 30 games includes matches in a lower/higher league? (you don't have to answer...just wondering). And are your H2H only in the league too? How far do your H2H go back? Is there a year limit on that?
  15. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Good start :ok Couple of things - first, you aren't supposed to edit posts that contain selections, all three of your posts are containing or referring to selections, and they all break that rule :spank Second, copying from Excel...the easiest way that i've found to do that is to select the table in Excel, copy (CTRL-C or whatever you normally click) and then open up an instance of MSPaint and paste it. It will return the table exactly as it appears in Excel. You can then save it as an image and upload it here. I've taken to doing that, because in the past I
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