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About lunatism

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 09/21/1987

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  1. Hi , is it possible to send me the complete article on Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament ?

    The link I found on Google has most of the information but some is still missing (for example the most crucial bit where you  pasted the macro!). Thank you!

  2. hi pal. 

    Is it possible to send me the articles that you had written about web scraping?

    Thanks for advance.

  3. Hi, A few years back you posted a macro for scraping data from

    I have used this ever since for my betting and found it to be a great tool.

    However much to my frustration, they have altered the website, meaning the macro no longer works.

    You don't seem to be on here anymore, but please if you get my message could you please take a look at it.

    I'm assuming it will be a small alteration in the macro, but unfortunately I am not a macro wizard like yourself.


    Many thanks




      It works fine for downloading results from a particular league


      then scraping. However when trying to scrap all results for all leagues for a particular day, it no longer works:
  4. merhaba ben bet365 oranlarını  excele aktarma istiyorum bana bu konuda yardmcı olurmunsuz

    hergün günecllemek  istiyorum  aşağıdaki dosya örnek bir dosya hazırladım

    onun gibi olmaısnı istiyorum  bu şeklide yapabilirmiyiz bir bot dosayısı eklenebilirmi?

    saygılar görüşmek üzere

    mail adresim

    yapılacak bet 365 oranları.xlsx

    1. Ezone


      Nice format you have got.
      @lunatism, were you able to scrap the data on the excel sheet?

  5. Re: Best system to use for a newbie Froment, You've written a great post, and I hope that lots of newbies to PL and to betting can make good use of it! I just wanted to add, in reference to this paragraph... Some people, in order to feel 100% sure (you can never be 100% about a bet, but you can "feel" 100% confident that you have a good system...whether that's wise or not, I don't know), will collect data from previous seasons and analyse those statistics and do a "dry run" of bets over a given period of time. We call this backtesting. Backtesting is a core part of any system development that I do, but the problem with some of these commercial sites (and backtesting in general), is that you can use past data to *show* that a system works, but it doesn't really guarantee anything for the future. Along the lines of the famous quote "there's lies, damn lies and then there's statistics". People can warp statistics to suit their own aims, which, when selling tips or a system, is about convinving you to part with your money. I've seen many of these commercial betting systems that claim to your first step towards a mansion and big yacht, and yet, when i've got my hands on them for testing purposes (never paid for one, you can sometimes come across the PDF's on certain sites) - i've often found that they are based on silly logic, or only work for a short period within the entire history of football! That might sound harsh, but I agree 100% with Froment, that all paid betting services...are designed to make profit for the seller. So, on top of what's been said - avoid commercial betting systems AND avoid commercial betting services. Froment also mentioned, if you think you have any good idea - you can get the data from that site (it goes back at least a decade) and test it out, before you spend any money! Maybe you think that if a team that wins three matches away and then draws at home is likely to beat the next team regardless of who they face (because they are trying to recover their earlier good form), you could test it. Or if you think that teams who had 50% more points than their opposition are not likely to lose at home by more than 1 goal, you could test it. You can use past data for testing backing/laying solutions, and there are a lot of guys on this site who can talk you through some basic testing if you're unsure about it. Thanks for joining the site, thanks for the question - because you aren't the only one who would have needed that information , and hopefully we'll see you posting in the future about your successes and failures as you learn how to become a profitable gambler!
  6. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) Well, it seems that "value" bets using the odds set by Betfair were a bust! Italy, England didn't qualify and Costa Rica didn't finish bottom (and all at fairly short odds). The only winning forecasts were that Ghana would finish bottom and that France would win their group! So, two wins out of eight based on value solely from Betfair odds. A return of -4.16pts! What does this say about just following the odds in order to select group winners from a World Cup? Not a good idea :lol In defence of Betfair, this was a trickier World Cup to predict (for certain groups), and the none qualification of England AND Italy was completely against both the odds and the expectations of the majority!!! The purpose of this "experiment", was just piggy-backing on the World Cup, while showing you guys how you can forecast a tournament (or a league, that's possible too...i've been playing around with that) - but before you start trying to forecast things, you need reliable predictions, otherwise you'll end up with a negative bank balance! :ok
  7. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) Appreciated, the idea of modelling a series of games in such a simple way had occurred to me before, but I'd never actually tried it out. I don't think that the bookies odds will turn out to be to useful for predicting the winner (i've proceeding with modelling the rest of the tournament, for my own amusement), but this is definitely a good starting point for people who are frustrated at those "random" results screwing up their predictions. I believe that there does need to be a "random" element accounted for in betting, and this is one way in which that can be factored into the betting process. Aside from that, it's simply fun to play with, right? :p Hmmm...that may be true, but I'm still annoyed that I forgot to check through before posting...error correction - they teach that to nursery kids... :spank After the first bit of advice I'd given out about incorrect sheet names too (#13), I really should have checked through properly....taken my own advice (of sorts)
  8. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Simple question here (i think I can guess the answer though...i'm in your brain :loon)...if the MLS had returned 10 winners from 10 picks, would you be considering dropping it? If The only reason you are dropping it, is because the results are bad, and then you looked for a reason why it could be underperforming as a reason to drop it, it's not a good tactic. You'll end up add condition after condition in order to keep a good average. If you're going to drop the MLS (or any league), it should be on sound logic. If it's because of the playoffs, why does your system not seem (to this moment in time) to be suited to this league? Is this a problem with the league, or a problem with the system? These are important things to consider, because system building can always lead down the "cherry-picking" route (where you look at the wins, and try to justify their selection, or look at the losses and try to justify their exclusion), and that's no longer really system building at all. I only know this because i've done it plenty of times in the past, so just make sure that all your decisions are based on good reason. Not hypothesis, mind you, btu tested theory. If you think the playoff-style games are creating problems, analyse all the playoff-style matches and see if it agrees with you. You might find that all your home picks do well, and not so much the away games, you might find that in May/June, the system doesn't work so well (summer months, people thinking about upcoming World Cup, etc)... This kind of attitude (analysing rather than avoiding your problems), will help you to become better at creating and improving systems :ok
  9. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) The model sheet was about C, I had the FIFA ranking (as a reference point), I just didn't mention that when I was listing the sheet columns. So ye, that would be right...except in my one, had the C column taken up, so it was in D. I should probably make another change to the guide, in case people get confused ;) After all, the row heading that that cell is referencing is D1 because in my sheet I had "1" in D1 and "FIFA" in C1, which is not what I suggested doing in the setup section.... You spotting these errors, suggests that you're the only one who actually tried this out, huh? :p
  10. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) Spot on! I noticed it as soon as you said bad :spank I've edited the first post to reflect it. I changed the sheet name while I was making the tutorial, and I forgot to check the links (since Excel auto-updates all the formalae when you rename an already existent workbook) Non taken at all, you've spotted an error and it was something I didn't see, you've done everyone who's tried to use this a favour! :clap (the reason for the space, was because of the editing recognising that is automatic, when i copied the formula into the text box, it put a smile face before I turned off formatting recognition)
  11. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System it's possible to save an awful lot of time by ignoring cup games, if you collect your data from Football-data and just look at league games...since, that's all they have :D
  12. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System I'm not after your system, just the logic behind your numbers, because if 30 works, why not 35/45/50, etc. I look at it like this, on it's own, a specific number is not magical, there has to be something further than simply "30 games played", otherwise, what's the difference between 25 wins out of 30 and 38/45 and 63/75? A few decimal places (if you're working on %). You might find that 30 games works in one league, but 15 or 45 in another. It's something i've looked into before, nothing conclusive. All i'd say is that the 6 game form tables are not very useful when it comes to judging what's around the corner ;) With the h2h, i've seen a few reports on sites dealing with soccermetrics (don't ask to me to try and remember where they are though!) that suggest that the further away (in time) that it happened, the less significance that it would hold towards any specific fixture. Given that you say you aren't proficient with maths or excel, i presume that you are not adjusting for time? So a game that happened 30 matches ago (which, if you look at some of the smaller leagues, could be almost 365 days) is just as relevant as a game that happened 3 days ago? If you decided to only look at league matches (for the h2h results, which makes sense, given that teams generally (or at least in recent years) use the cup competitions as an opportunity to see younger talent and give their regular performers a break), you could just download 10 years worth of data from, and look for all the H2H's in that, right? That would mean that you could backtest ALL the leagues that they cater for. Not Brazil or USA, but every major league in Europe, and some of the smaller ones too... I would be interested to see the results of your backtesting...
  13. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System why did you choose 30 games? where did you get your data parameter ideas from? (i ask this because it sounds similar to what i've read on SoccerWidow) Have you looked at the difference between including and discounting H2H games? (ditto for H2H cup games) Final question (for now :p), are you using poisson?
  14. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Sure you're right - small sample size, but sounds promising. All that you're using is results? I guess getting the results is the easy part, but the H2H make it tricky? What happens if the last 30 games includes matches in a lower/higher league? (you don't have to answer...just wondering). And are your H2H only in the league too? How far do your H2H go back? Is there a year limit on that?
  15. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Good start :ok Couple of things - first, you aren't supposed to edit posts that contain selections, all three of your posts are containing or referring to selections, and they all break that rule :spank Second, copying from Excel...the easiest way that i've found to do that is to select the table in Excel, copy (CTRL-C or whatever you normally click) and then open up an instance of MSPaint and paste it. It will return the table exactly as it appears in Excel. You can then save it as an image and upload it here. I've taken to doing that, because in the past I had a lot of problems uploading tables and on different browsers, it would appear differently. Saving as an image guarantees that your data will show the same wherever You said that you hadn't backtested it much...but that means you backtested it a little bit, right? What kind of results are you expecting from this long term? Any reason why you started off with US & Brazil (aside from them being active at the moment)?