lunatism Posted March 23, 2008 Author Share Posted March 23, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 23, 2008 Author Share Posted March 23, 2008 Matchday 8 (23-03-08) posted selection twice!! see below Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 23, 2008 Author Share Posted March 23, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 23, 2008 Share Posted March 23, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) System going well m8, well done:clap The aways have picked up as well, lets hope we are on a good run:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 23, 2008 Share Posted March 23, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 23, 2008 Author Share Posted March 23, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 23, 2008 Share Posted March 23, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Well done Loon. An impressive return, making the considerable hard work you put in worthwhile. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 24, 2008 Author Share Posted March 24, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Well done Loon. An impressive return' date=' making the considerable hard work you put in worthwhile. :clap[/quote'] thanks! :ok and you're right about the odds...and we kind of "discussed" this before and i said i'd start using other bookies but since going live, it's not really too feasible for me to be hunting for the best odds when i wouldn't be able to take them anyway! And i'd say apart from a few, most of my selections are "unique" to bwin, so i'd rather keep consitency and sacrifice those extra few points on the percentages. People are of course welcome to hunt down better odds for their own personal use and post up the differences on here (as you did with the Lyon game) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 24, 2008 Author Share Posted March 24, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) right...little "problem" here, my selection for today is showing up at a load of bookeis that i never use....but bWin SHOULD be showing it, and so should Pinnacle. In fact, pinnacle have the league greyed out at present (which usually means they are draging their heels to compile the odds), so I will leave it until around 12pm before I post the selection. Kick off is at 15:30, so you'd still have plenty of time to place bets I cannot get bWin or Pinnacle, i'll obviously post for some other bookie) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 24, 2008 Author Share Posted March 24, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Loon, are you online? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Just logged back in to my high interest bank account to find that that it has gone up 10% in a day on what I deposited;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 24, 2008 Author Share Posted March 24, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 25, 2008 Author Share Posted March 25, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) well well well....looks like i'm waiting on pinnacle again. At least this time the kick off is in the evening, so there is a little more time for them to do what they do. The selection is ready, if I don't have the AH by 1600, then i'll post the fixed odds :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 25, 2008 Author Share Posted March 25, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 25, 2008 Author Share Posted March 25, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) obviously i mean short fixed odds....not short AH in the previous post :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Glentoran 3-0.... nice call, Loon :clap.... I actually put some hard cash on this one :beer...... please advise me when I should give up my day-job. :rollin Thanks also for giving some "analysis", rather than simply quoting the statistical selections (as I do, I´m afraid). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 25, 2008 Author Share Posted March 25, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Glentoran 3-0.... nice call' date=' Loon :clap.... I actually put some hard cash on this one :beer...... please advise me when I should give up my day-job. :rollin Thanks also for giving some "analysis", rather than simply quoting the statistical selections (as I do, I´m afraid). haha, glad you were able to make a bit of cash out of this one! did you take the fixed odds or the handicap? I had some spare cash lying around at betfair, so i put it on the over 2.5 (well...if i'm taking -2 at pinnacle, then the obvious choice at betfair would be over 2.5) and made a bit from that too! i don't know how long you've been looking around on the forum (before you signed up), but in my "early days" i did a lot of stat research and always used to provide a heck of a lot of background info about each match i posted - but i only did that because i never wanted to post my system stuff on here! plus, it took time and effort! but another reason i've not been doing it for these selections is that there are generally too many to do all the extra research for! perhaps in the future I may do one "pick of the bunch" and do analysis for that one selection (if it's over an AH)...who knows. I guess it makes for a clearer head when placing the bets! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 25, 2008 Author Share Posted March 25, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) did you take the fixed odds or the handicap? I had some spare cash lying around at betfair' date= so i put it on the over 2.5 (well...if i'm taking -2 at pinnacle, then the obvious choice at betfair would be over 2.5) and made a bit from that too! I risked the AH... shows the confidence I have in your selections ;). The only disadvantage of taking the OVERS option is, of course, that with a scoreline of 2-0 you would have recouped your stake back on the AH.... but the odds presumably would reflect this. Keep up the great work :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 25, 2008 Author Share Posted March 25, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) I risked the AH... shows the confidence I have in your selections ;). The only disadvantage of taking the OVERS option is, of course, that with a scoreline of 2-0 you would have recouped your stake back on the AH.... but the odds presumably would reflect this. Keep up the great work :clap too right, good thing it finished 3-0 ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Read this whole thread in bits and pieces over the day, very impressive Lunatism. Thought of a couple of questions earlier today, but can't remember one of them now :tongue2 Neither were of much significance in the greater scheme of things, but I will ask the one I can remember anyway, just out of interest... Do current league positions get factored into your calculations in any way, or is it just league performance? What I mean is for instance in League One, there are a few clubs who have had points docked and thus their league position has been affected by something other than their actual league performance. Leeds with their 15pts back would be 3rd, as it is they are 8th, would that alter the recommended prediction in any way? Hope you follow, I know what i mean :unsure lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 26, 2008 Author Share Posted March 26, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Read this whole thread in bits and pieces over the day, very impressive Lunatism. Thought of a couple of questions earlier today, but can't remember one of them now :tongue2 Neither were of much significance in the greater scheme of things, but I will ask the one I can remember anyway, just out of interest... Do current league positions get factored into your calculations in any way, or is it just league performance? What I mean is for instance in League One, there are a few clubs who have had points docked and thus their league position has been affected by something other than their actual league performance. Leeds with their 15pts back would be 3rd, as it is they are 8th, would that alter the recommended prediction in any way? Hope you follow, I know what i mean :unsure lol Well, that's a good question :tongue2 And I did some research as while back into whether it would be effective to consider what the league position would be when calculating selections, and what I came up with was that there is greater accuracy when using the published league tables, as opposed to the "real" ones (how it should be). No idea why, but I guess it might be to do with particular aspirations associated with that position...eg if a team should be 3rd but their 8th - they aren't realistically fighting for top spot, they are fighting for playoffs, and their indset may come into it - but i wouldn't know i'm afraid. I hope that answers your question! I DO look at league position, as I do a variety of other factors too, and I try to equally weight each one out so that things such as point deductions don't immediately rule them out, often a combination of things will. Interested to hear your other question when it comes back to you!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Many thanks for your prompt response, it does indeed answer my question. You may, perhaps, be glad to know I have remembered the other question I had: What happens at the start of a league season when factors such as recent form and league performance aren't applicable? Is there a 'warm up' period at the beginning of a season when you take a back seat and let those statistics build into something concrete? Again, must say how interesting this thread is, and one I am most certainly going to be taking note of throughout my stay at PL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 26, 2008 Author Share Posted March 26, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Many thanks for your prompt response, it does indeed answer my question. You may, perhaps, be glad to know I have remembered the other question I had: What happens at the start of a league season when factors such as recent form and league performance aren't applicable? Is there a 'warm up' period at the beginning of a season when you take a back seat and let those statistics build into something concrete? Again, must say how interesting this thread is, and one I am most certainly going to be taking note of throughout my stay at PL Great - another good question...luckily i have the answer at hand :tongue2 I not only have a warm up period of at least 10 games (6 in some leagues...depends on number of teams in league), i also have a warm down period too. When a team has reached a certain percentage of the "home allowance" (my predicted number of games they should be playing at home this season based on past seasons and number of teams in league....you might wonder why ineed to calculate this - but it changes in some of the other worldly leagues), it is "ignored". Even if the rating was 40, it would still be ignored, too many disruptive factors can come into play and through testing got some nasty shock results through it couple of seasons back! ...and i'm glad you find my thread helpful! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Many thanks Lunatism, a portion of my betting bank is awaiting your next selection :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 26, 2008 Author Share Posted March 26, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Many thanks Lunatism' date=' a portion of my betting bank is awaiting your next selection[s'] :ok haha.....no presuure then, huh? :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 29, 2008 Author Share Posted March 29, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 29, 2008 Author Share Posted March 29, 2008 Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) slight change to today's selections...thank goodness - i was able to find AH on one of these this morning, so that will CHANGE to AH -2, and i'll post it shortly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 29, 2008 Author Share Posted March 29, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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