Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

[lunatism]

[palaceman]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) That's an impressive strike rate. If you can keep it anywhere near that, you'll certainly be laughing. Well done. :clap

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

That's an impressive strike rate

thanks :ok! i'm really hoping it can improve during these paper trails so that when i make the move over to real cash people have some positive stats they can look back over!

[lunatism]

[F.]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Hi Pal, Just to let you know there are some of us reading your thread and wishing you the best. I'd advise you to keep paper trailing until you hit 150 bets and then run a confidence test with your results. For the moment being just record every selection you make, tweak as much as you feel necessary, have patience while building your betting log and you'll be in top shape for the 2008-09 season !! :loon:loon Best luck to you, F.

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Ok, I'll be posting the selections for the weekend a little early I hope - but this depends on whether bwin hurry up with putting up odds for the highland league - i've got all the other selections, except that one match. i'll be putting a star (or something, haven't decided yet) next to all the fixtures that pass both ratings systems - these would be the teams strongly rated and best for singles/doubles/trebles (in paper of course;)) i'll be putting up the odds for both AH and fixed, but i'll make it clear which one i'm recommending - the reason for this is that this new ratings thing i've cooked up likes the fixed (albeit lower) odds! for a few days (or a week), i'll keep a running comparison of the original system, and of the improved version. If i continue seeing such brilliant results, i'll either start a new thread with that system, or just change and put yield back to zero - not sure how to handle that one yet....but hey, that's "long into future", this is now :)

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

Hi Pal, Just to let you know there are some of us reading your thread and wishing you the best. I'd advise you to keep paper trailing until you hit 150 bets and then run a confidence test with your results. For the moment being just record every selection you make, tweak as much as you feel necessary, have patience while building your betting log and you'll be in top shape for the 2008-09 season !! :loon:loon Best luck to you, F.

thanks for the well wishing :ok - i'm definately sticking to paper at the minute (although patience isn't one of my stronger qualities!), and then the shift I guess will come around the 150 mark as you suggest. If my system (with the new tweaks) averages 7/8 selections a week, then in around 20 weeks time (or sooner if there's a spate of good games) - let's call it the end of June, i should be ready to launch! but who knows what can happen between now and then, i'll just have to keep my spreadsheets in order and my fingers crossed and see what happens! ......such a long wait - but ultimately could (or should i say should), be worth it. Although my trialling/testing prior to starting the thread looked at over 150 matches, i guess it's important to get another 150 under my belt - especially since i have been making slight modifications here and there. Plus, i want input from you guys along the way! THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR COMMENT!!!:)

[lunatism]

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) ..............a BIT of news regarding the Buckie Thistle fixture - "A pitch inspection this afternoon revealed the victoria park pitch to be in good condition and playable"

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) "An overnight dusting of snow means that a 10 am pitch inspection will take place" i WISH it was easier to know if a game was off or not, i know that the odds are so low, bla bla bla, and it's not like i bet on it anyway (still paper testing), but if only for the purposes of this thread....hurry up guys and decide :tongue2 i won't be posting until after 1pm, since i'm off for a bit to do some stuff.....incase folks wonder about the on/off situation with this game

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) right - game on

[lunatism]

[The Hat Man]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Hey, congratulations on the system - looks really promising! Thought you should know that the Skelmersdale match went ahead today with the home side scraping a 7-0 win! I guess that just about covers the handicap... Keep up the good work. http://skemutdfc.proboards20.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1201973158

[lunatism]

[lunatism]

[lunatism]

[palaceman]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) You're strike rate is good. But as you observe, the average odds don't quite make up for the 3 in 10 that lose. You either need to better the odds or try further to reduce the number that fail. If you could get these down to 2 in 10, you could make a steady profit.

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) yep, i know that I could improve the strike rate further by making the selection process more agressive, but i think by doing that i would not only limit betting opportunities, but also end up with even weaker average odds. so i think AH must be the way to go, the only issue with that, is that there are a lot of times when i go Fixed over AH when putting my selections up - so should I be recommending the AH against .... for example the Inter win by two goals - i didn't see that happening, so i took the fixed odds. I guess i just feel uncomfortable almost of going against my system! But i know that doing it that way would have produced a much higher yield. but hey, this is paper testing and the experimentation stage - better to try it now rather than later :)

[lunatism]

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) just ran a check on all the Fleet Town/Cray Wanderers matches, and looks that both games are ON :) so hopefully later in the day (probably tomorrow, since i'm out this evening:tongue2) i'll be posting some good news :hope:hope:hope

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) something else i think needs to be added - the 1/X/2 percentages only point to the liklihood of THOSE results. not to how successful the AH will be, eg....although Cray get 74% for a home win, a -1.25 would obviously be at a lower percentage (one i cannot compute at present) anyhow - good luck for today!!!

[lunatism]

[lunatism]

[Punto Banco]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Looking over everything and it all looks nice... great start considering the variety of leagues and selections.... I am always interested in CS systems (though they essentially never work because of terrible %) could you post some separate results once some real stats can be drawn out (only if your up to it). So most people find that as a system developed there are certain elements that lose and some that win... perhaps at the end of the season you can analyze the success of all of these "unknown leagues". You might find that they aren't so profitable anyways and therefore just drag your time and make this system not so popular (which is a shame). Anyways basically a review could produce a nice win/win situation for yourself also I find that the more readily available statistics etc with such a complex system (well for myself ;)) the more accurate the selections become and hence more $$$ for the piggy bank. Ok so summary nice work.. keep at it and it seems like with work (though it seems you have already put a HUGE effort in) you could make this a very VERY sweet system which I will 100% be watching for the rest of the season and well hopefully beyond...:ok P.S Soccerway is a nice site that i have NEVER used before.... THANK YOU...:clap

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

could you post some separate results once some real stats can be drawn out (only if your up to it)

sounds like a challenge?! How could I refuse?! :tongue2 what kind of information would you like? Right now, because i'm still developing my system (not just the formula's, but also how it actually "works" (the links between sheets, what macro runs in what order, the data retrieval, etc) there are certain things lacking......mainly the past results :unsure But i have "everything else", the past score prediction, the past lp, ratings, league tables (with a date column so that new ideas can be backtested...blablabla). In the next few days, i WILL be working on a result retrieval "feature" to my system, so that i don't have to manually put them in....but i definitely wouldn't avoid researching CS just because i didn't want to do the result trawling :) so fire away with your "exact" requirements (oh ye - i presumed CS meant correct score, correct me if i'm wrong!)

So most people find that as a system developed there are certain elements that lose and some that win... perhaps at the end of the season you can analyze the success of all of these "unknown leagues"

...basically a review could produce a nice win/win situation for yourself also I find that the more readily available statistics etc with such a complex system (well for myself ;)) the more accurate the selections become

That's exactly what I'm trying to do with this one - for me, i chose initially to look at as many leagues as possible in order to find a universal system that can be applied to anything. It has always been my intention to weed out the seriously under-performing leagues come some review point (although the actual point at which i do that will definitely be hazy, i don't think there is ever an "end of season" point when so many leagues in different parts of the world are on their breaks!). I am already starting to see some patterns with regards to leagues that do well and those that don't, but when i notice these - it's always been important to me to (at this stage) at least try and modify the system just a little bit to accommodate for such. Generally means, less selections, but if you like a "better quality" of selection.

Ok so summary nice work.. keep at it and it seems like with work (though it seems you have already put a HUGE effort in) you could make this a very VERY sweet system which I will 100% be watching for the rest of the season and well hopefully beyond...:ok

thanks a lot, it's nice to hear things like that so early in the "life" of my system!

[Punto Banco]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) So yeh was really interested in CS (Yes correct score :tongue2) stats as an individual system... really just curious to there feasibility when odds are often skewed through plain old poor odds and well the masses... ... I just noticed you have addition stats there win % etc.... not looking for much just perhaps %yield.... etc basic things to judge performance (again it may not even matter yet as the system is new however something for the future once you have stats that could be deemed "reliable")

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) ok, so what i should be putting up is basically the strike rate (and number of predictions) for each of the most likely score prediction? eg 0 - 0 = 15% from 1000 games or something like that? or are you actually suggesting that i should start a new thread right now and start posting score predictions? that wouldn't relaly be feasable - since there would be hundreds of predictions each day, BUT i've no problem in sending you the predictions by email or something ;) what i could do is first do the strike rate thing on my score prediction, and then draw up some criteria to weed out so of the under performers (eg...sometimes, but not always, the higher the rating, the more likely the CS will be correct), and THEN post the strike rates (and so relative success) of the CS....if you want?

[Punto Banco]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

ok, so what i should be putting up is basically the strike rate (and number of predictions) for each of the most likely score prediction? eg 0 - 0 = 15% from 1000 games or something like that? or are you actually suggesting that i should start a new thread right now and start posting score predictions? that wouldn't relaly be feasable - since there would be hundreds of predictions each day, BUT i've no problem in sending you the predictions by email or something ;) what i could do is first do the strike rate thing on my score prediction, and then draw up some criteria to weed out so of the under performers (eg...sometimes, but not always, the higher the rating, the more likely the CS will be correct), and THEN post the strike rates (and so relative success) of the CS....if you want?

Hehe you are a little crazy :tongue2.... I appreciate your ambition but much of this not necessary. Just one thing perhaps I am misunderstanding are you actually (placing or paper trailing) you CS predictions or is it just a "curiosity" thing ie. I wonder how many are correct... just wondering if you had either bet on these (with a set stake I would presume), cross referenced with market odds (if paper trail), or if was as mentioned "a curiosity thing". Essentially what I am saying is if it is either of the first two I would be eager to see something like this:

STARTING BANK	100.00
CURENT BANK	104.11
TOTAL STAKED	184.92
NUMBER OF BETS	28
WINNING BETS	20
LOSING BETS	8
STRIKE RATE	71.43%
YIELD	2%
PROFIT / LOSS	4.11

But for CS.... and as you mentioned a new thread for it i'd say would be worth much hehe... sorry for the confusion I was a little vague reading over my posts but yeh hey not so important anyways .... I was kind of just picking at a little thing that really isn't first priority (I fully invite you to do this when I bring out my system but that may not be till next season as well not that long left and it def wont be ready for about a month at least)

[Punto Banco]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

what i could do is first do the strike rate thing on my score prediction, and then draw up some criteria to weed out so of the under performers (eg...sometimes, but not always, the higher the rating, the more likely the CS will be correct), and THEN post the strike rates (and so relative success) of the CS....if you want?

This certainly not such a bad idea either but again probably will need a decent amount of time to develop...:ok

[lunatism]

Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) hmmm.....i'd say more of a guideline than a curiosity thing. But (don't know if you read further up the thread or not) i do use a very strict system for predicting these too - and i was always intending on trialling how successful different betting options would fare with my system. CS would definitely be one of these betting options! So all you've done is brought forward something I would have done anyway - the time factor? Well, all i need to do is to finish my "getting past results" macro, and everything should be automated! This means that I would definitely :hope be able to have all the information you would be after at mid-week by the latest, if not much sooner. I would generate a similar stat analysis to the one I use for the other system, but most likely put this is a grid, so you can see how each predicted score would fare - you'd know exactly how much you would have made (or lost), for each score, and the most CS would be highlight (i guess?!)......and of course i'd show the overall strike rate, etc too it probably sounds like much - don't worry, i've got the "things" in place, they just await the results. in case you wondered, the reason i keep mentioning betting on certain scores more than others, is that i briefly looked at this a few months back, and i was getting remarkable reliability with the 0 - 0, 1 - 0 and 0 - 1 scorelines, i shelved it so i could concentrate more on making this better....but it still around somewhere :) reason i mentioned 1000 games, is because at this moment in time i have 900+ from the last three days, so if i was to go back a few weeks i'd have more than "enough". What would you consider to be a reasonable sample size?