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lunatism

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Everything posted by lunatism

  1. Re: Best system to use for a newbie Froment, You've written a great post, and I hope that lots of newbies to PL and to betting can make good use of it! I just wanted to add, in reference to this paragraph... Some people, in order to feel 100% sure (you can never be 100% about a bet, but you can "feel" 100% confident that you have a good system...whether that's wise or not, I don't know), will collect data from previous seasons and analyse those statistics and do a "dry run" of bets over a given period of time. We call this backtesting. Backtesting is a core part of any system developme
  2. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) Well, it seems that "value" bets using the odds set by Betfair were a bust! Italy, England didn't qualify and Costa Rica didn't finish bottom (and all at fairly short odds). The only winning forecasts were that Ghana would finish bottom and that France would win their group! So, two wins out of eight based on value solely from Betfair odds. A return of -4.16pts! What does this say about just following the odds in order to select group winners from a World Cup? Not a good idea :lol In defence of Betfair, th
  3. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) Appreciated, the idea of modelling a series of games in such a simple way had occurred to me before, but I'd never actually tried it out. I don't think that the bookies odds will turn out to be to useful for predicting the winner (i've proceeding with modelling the rest of the tournament, for my own amusement), but this is definitely a good starting point for people who are frustrated at those "random" results screwing up their predictions. I believe that there does need to be a "random" element accounted for
  4. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Simple question here (i think I can guess the answer though...i'm in your brain :loon)...if the MLS had returned 10 winners from 10 picks, would you be considering dropping it? If The only reason you are dropping it, is because the results are bad, and then you looked for a reason why it could be underperforming as a reason to drop it, it's not a good tactic. You'll end up add condition after condition in order to keep a good average. If you're going to drop the MLS (or any league), it should be on sound logic. If it's because of the playoffs, why does your s
  5. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) The model sheet was about experimenting...in C, I had the FIFA ranking (as a reference point), I just didn't mention that when I was listing the sheet columns. So ye, that would be right...except in my one, had the C column taken up, so it was in D. I should probably make another change to the guide, in case people get confused ;) After all, the row heading that that cell is referencing is D1 because in my sheet I had "1" in D1 and "FIFA" in C1, which is not what I suggested doing in the setup section.... You
  6. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) Spot on! I noticed it as soon as you said it...my bad :spank I've edited the first post to reflect it. I changed the sheet name while I was making the tutorial, and I forgot to check the links (since Excel auto-updates all the formalae when you rename an already existent workbook) Non taken at all, you've spotted an error and it was something I didn't see, you've done everyone who's tried to use this a favour! :clap (the reason for the space, was because of the editing recognising that is automatic,
  7. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System it's possible to save an awful lot of time by ignoring cup games, if you collect your data from Football-data and just look at league games...since, that's all they have :D
  8. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System I'm not after your system, just the logic behind your numbers, because if 30 works, why not 35/45/50, etc. I look at it like this, on it's own, a specific number is not magical, there has to be something further than simply "30 games played", otherwise, what's the difference between 25 wins out of 30 and 38/45 and 63/75? A few decimal places (if you're working on %). You might find that 30 games works in one league, but 15 or 45 in another. It's something i've looked into before, nothing conclusive. All i'd say is that the 6 game form tables are not very usefu
  9. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System why did you choose 30 games? where did you get your data parameter ideas from? (i ask this because it sounds similar to what i've read on SoccerWidow) Have you looked at the difference between including and discounting H2H games? (ditto for H2H cup games) Final question (for now :p), are you using poisson?
  10. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Sure you're right - small sample size, but sounds promising. All that you're using is results? I guess getting the results is the easy part, but the H2H make it tricky? What happens if the last 30 games includes matches in a lower/higher league? (you don't have to answer...just wondering). And are your H2H only in the league too? How far do your H2H go back? Is there a year limit on that?
  11. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Good start :ok Couple of things - first, you aren't supposed to edit posts that contain selections, all three of your posts are containing or referring to selections, and they all break that rule :spank Second, copying from Excel...the easiest way that i've found to do that is to select the table in Excel, copy (CTRL-C or whatever you normally click) and then open up an instance of MSPaint and paste it. It will return the table exactly as it appears in Excel. You can then save it as an image and upload it here. I've taken to doing that, because in the past I
  12. Re: Correct score stats...help.... ditto on what he said, that's what i'd do, unless you have a list of specific leagues, and then I could probably help out by telling you how to scrape the data :p if you don't mind me asking, what are you going to do with the data anyway?
  13. Re: Question about odds calculating and home advantage Good question...it's a personal one though, you'll probably not get too many fair answers because you are essentially asking somebody how they compile their odds...furthermore, any idea that's posted on this thread could end up in the grubby hands of our favourite bookie :loon but let's see.... There are no true *neutral* grounds... There are lot's of different ways to do this, i'll go down the path of least resistance, and hopefully this will promote some research/thought for you... The first question you have to consider is you
  14. Re: Simple formula good luck with this! if it's simple and just based on goals, have you been able to use any of the football-data stuff to backtest this? is this system specific to Brazil, or all over the World? Do you think it would work at the World Cup?
  15. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) that's true...i sometimes forget that not everyone has the latest version of Excel, although if anybody is getting an error, they would be presented with this particular error message: Run-time error '1004': Method 'Range of object '_Global' failed It is probably down to having an older version of Excel.I'm not sure i'd want to run this in an older Excel anyway - might be considerably slower than otherwise. If anybody does get any errors, crop a PrintScreen of the error and click on the debug button and sho
  16. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) If Excel is getting into an infinite loop (magical stuff...always moving, never getting anywhere!!), it might be because you have failed to name a range properly or you're referencing an unchanging value (which could totally be my fault)...PM me a link to your saved workbook, and i'll take a look :p
  17. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) Gotta flex the "the internet is your library" approach here. Goto http://www.piuha.fi/excel-function-name-translation/index.php?page=english-spanish.html :ok It's worth the effort You have to be willing to deconstruct formula in order to understand them, if you look at the SUMIF function, and see what it does, you will realise why there are two, realising why there are two. Curiosity will then lead you to experiment to see what one does, and if you look at the columns that are referenced, you will see exactl
  18. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage)
  19. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) Are you having a problem with the instructions? Hope not... :\
  20. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) :$ it just seems that way, when you get well-versed in Excel, you'll be writing up threads like that in your sleep (and you'll hate me for it!) The only reason that Excel would prompt you to open a file at this point would be is you misspelled one of the sheets, or perhaps if you used different names. Excel can't find the sheets that you are referring to, and so it asks you to help it! To test this theory out, type =EXCEL!A1, you will get the same error :ok These two, I answered in your post on Web Scra
  21. Re: So when it is worth to backtest a system? and more important HOW?
  22. Re: So when it is worth to backtest a system? and more important HOW? just over two years later, i'm just getting to your reply :spank. Did you manage to develop your Excel skills since then, or figure out a way to backtest your data?
  23. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) Don't worry - you can learn! In the Tools section, I posted two threads about ways to use Excel for data collection, and I'll probably add to that in the future Web Scraping with Excel - Part 1 Web Scraping with Excel - Part 2 I've posted up methods, formulae and macro's...not just so you could do exactly what I could do, but also so that you can modify and create too. One of the great things about using Excel, is that there are plenty of ways to do any given action, it means that i'm just as likely to learn
  24. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) Here are the apparent value bets: [ATTACH]6009[/ATTACH] I say apparent, because it doesn't seem wise to back two in the same group to finish bottom when both are at evens (Group G), and I suppose that removing the USA one (since the probability of Ghana finishing bottom is 5% stronger), but I don't want to cherry pick...i'll just accept it). The important thing to remember, is that these probabilities are a reflection of the Betfair odds, and i'm not in agreement with most of them. Highlighting a few difference
  25. Re: Using Excel to Model a Football Tournament (World Cup 2014 - Group Stage) I'm completely onto that yellow auto-save thing...i've used it a LOT lately. But i'm having to use a VPN service here, so even if my internet connection remains constant, the VPN client can die (it does this too regularly to be honest, my fault for sticking with a poor company) and if I don't notice, i can type away for hours, and it's not auto-saved. I think what happened, was that i'd clicked on the start new thread button, and then wandered off for a cup of tea, came back, not noticed it had disconnected, a
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