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RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

RussP

By RussP
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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RussP

RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Been away for a while but back with a bet for tonight:- 8.15 Leicester Just 9 runners lining up for this 1m2f Class 5 handicap. Some of these come here in form but this makes them poorly handicapped in better races so I'm chancing a return to form for: Quince (18/1 SportingBet) - Looks a massive price and can see this getting in the 3 tonight. Top weight here but dropped in grade to Class 5 for the first time since its very early days, as well as racing off a its lowest ever mark. Regular jockey back on top who has a good record on the horse and races at a track that clearly suits, a win and a second from 2 attempts round here. Has been hit and miss this term but looks well in judged on its seasonal reappearance when 3rd of 17 in a really competitive race at Donny. That was off 78, but gets in here of 75. I just feel the drop in class and mark, as well as a change of scenery, could see a return to form for this capable horse. Massively overpriced at 18/1.

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RussP

RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

No he hasnt been poached, he is back, long live Russ:lol Good to see you back mate.
:lolCheers Rob. Had a lot of crap going on recently but hope to get back into the swing of things. Ah, how I've missed you lot.:cheers
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bowles10

bowles10

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

:lolCheers Rob. Had a lot of crap going on recently but hope to get back into the swing of things. Ah, how I've missed you lot.:cheers
Not as much as we have missed you buddy. Just in time for Ascot! Hope all is sorted!
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stewartd14

stewartd14

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Been away for a while but back with a bet for tonight:- 8.15 Leicester Just 9 runners lining up for this 1m2f Class 5 handicap. Some of these come here in form but this makes them poorly handicapped in better races so I'm chancing a return to form for: Quince (18/1 SportingBet) - Looks a massive price and can see this getting in the 3 tonight. Top weight here but dropped in grade to Class 5 for the first time since its very early days, as well as racing off a its lowest ever mark. Regular jockey back on top who has a good record on the horse and races at a track that clearly suits, a win and a second from 2 attempts round here. Has been hit and miss this term but looks well in judged on its seasonal reappearance when 3rd of 17 in a really competitive race at Donny. That was off 78, but gets in here of 75. I just feel the drop in class and mark, as well as a change of scenery, could see a return to form for this capable horse. Massively overpriced at 18/1.
:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Welcome back mate :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap
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RussP

RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Been away for a while but back with a bet for tonight:- 8.15 Leicester Just 9 runners lining up for this 1m2f Class 5 handicap. Some of these come here in form but this makes them poorly handicapped in better races so I'm chancing a return to form for: Quince (18/1 SportingBet) - Looks a massive price and can see this getting in the 3 tonight. Top weight here but dropped in grade to Class 5 for the first time since its very early days, as well as racing off a its lowest ever mark. Regular jockey back on top who has a good record on the horse and races at a track that clearly suits, a win and a second from 2 attempts round here. Has been hit and miss this term but looks well in judged on its seasonal reappearance when 3rd of 17 in a really competitive race at Donny. That was off 78, but gets in here of 75. I just feel the drop in class and mark, as well as a change of scenery, could see a return to form for this capable horse. Massively overpriced at 18/1.
Delighted with that, an 18/1 winner:ok. I just couldn't believe the price on this horse, 18/1 was an insult in this field. I'd probably have backed it if it were only 7 or 8/1 as I thought it had a great chance in this grade. Have been away recently with lots going on away from PL but hope to get back to normal now. Thanks for all your support:ok
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RussP

RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Just the one bet for today: 4.10 Salisbury Class 5 7f handicap here with 12 runners going to post. The 2 market leaders both have question marks with one coming straight from maidens and making its reappearance and the other off a mark too high, having to prove itself in this grade. Therefore, the EW money is going on: Mason Ette (9/1 SkyBet) - Gets in here off top weight but still has solid credentials. Good run lto when 3rd of 8 on good/soft over this trip. However, is dropped in grade and mark for todays run, is also sure to be benefitted by the better ground. Has only run once in a Class 5 handicap, won that so hoping to follow it up today. Horse is coming to hand and, if ridden a little more prominently today, I expect it to go pretty close. Looks a cracking EW bet at a bigger price than I expected to get, 9/1. Honestly thought it would be more like a 5 or 6/1 shot.

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RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Just the one bet for today: 4.10 Salisbury Class 5 7f handicap here with 12 runners going to post. The 2 market leaders both have question marks with one coming straight from maidens and making its reappearance and the other off a mark too high, having to prove itself in this grade. Therefore, the EW money is going on: Mason Ette (9/1 SkyBet) - Gets in here off top weight but still has solid credentials. Good run lto when 3rd of 8 on good/soft over this trip. However, is dropped in grade and mark for todays run, is also sure to be benefitted by the better ground. Has only run once in a Class 5 handicap, won that so hoping to follow it up today. Horse is coming to hand and, if ridden a little more prominently today, I expect it to go pretty close. Looks a cracking EW bet at a bigger price than I expected to get, 9/1. Honestly thought it would be more like a 5 or 6/1 shot.
Went off at 4's! But never managed to get in a blow.
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RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Main Bets - EW Singles 2008 Staked = 120.00pts Returned = 199.15pts Profit = +79.15pts Yield = +66.0% Bets = 12 Winners = 2 (16.7% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 4 (33.3% s/r) 2007 Turf Staked = 1040.00pts Returned = 1669.27pts Profit = +629.27pts Yield = +60.5% Bets = 105 Winners = 19 (18.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 41 (39.0% s/r) Multiple Selection Bets 2008 Staked = 80.00pts Returned = 118.88pts Profit = +38.88pts Yield = +48.6% Races = 8 Winners = 3 (37.5% s/r)

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RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Possibly a couple of bets tonight starting with: 8.00 Windsor 6f race here for these Class 4 handicappers. Just 11 go to post but there are some fancy prices available and I'm taking double figures on: Halsion Chancer (10/1 William Hill) - Only has to take to turf to take this IMO. Very progressive sprinter on the AW with 6 wins from 10 starts. No show in 2 turf starts but last race was at Epsom, a track it clearly didn't handle, where the jockey eased the horse a lot. Add to that, the grade was Class 2 and off 82, there is every chance this easier track will see it go close now it is back in its rightful grade of Class 4 and gets in here off just 80. Jockey gets on really well with this horse too. Looks a really open race and at the price, I find it hard to ignore this horse. Great EW chance at 10's.

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RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 4.20 Ascot 14 runners for this Class 1 Listed handicap over 1m2f. Many in with chances but I'm going EW on a double figure priced one in: Halicarnassus (20/1 Coral) - Last years winning stable and this horse has a good chance of making it a double. In form jockey too on a Group class horse. More than capable in this grade off what looks a quite lenient mark. This horse could have easily contested one of the Group races this week but Channon opts for a handicap, off a mark of 108. Is double handed in the race but this one is his best chance in my opinion. First time visor could help and I really expect a good run for my money here at 20's. 5.30 Ascot Massive field for this straight 7f cavalry charge, Class 2. The rail has to be the place so I'm going high on: Racer Forever (25/1 SportingBet) - Top weight but drawn superbly well in 29 of 30. Very well handicapped though off 105 and really expect a massive run if it gets the breaks. Rarely out of the frame in handicaps and was touched off in a big handicap over C&D last term, with 27 runners. Clearly has ability and, on the form book, has the ability to take this. Big weight to carry has inflated its price but cannot be ignored at a huge 25/1.

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RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) On a poor run of 3 straight losers although disappointed by the ride given to Halicarnassus today. Have 2 bets tonight from different ends of the UK:- 7.45 Ayr 14 runners for this Class 6 1m handicap. Some of the northern based trainers have solid chances here but I'm amazing at the price of: Moverra (12/1 Stan James) - Big price for this horse. Trainer sends it all the way from Newmarket for this run and has decent jockey on top, who has a good record at the track. Still a maiden but solid claims to change that tonight. Good run lto at Lingfield when 9th of 18, but that was when drawn in the coffin box 1. Showed up well for a long way that day when having no chance due to the draw. Previous to that, again showed up well early on but jockey reported it ran flat. Better judged on effort before when 2nd at Yarmouth, not well drawn there either. Decent draw tonight and the extra furlong probably in its favour. If it jumps out well and settles prominently, I can see this horse holding the late challengers at bay. A big EW price. 8.10 Newmarket With 2 out of the race, 13 line up for this 7f handicap, Class 3. A hot fav in Kal Barg but this gives us some cracking EW value and the one I've plumped for is: Masai Moon (16/1 Betfred) - Need to completely ignore last run where the horse was totally outclassed and off an inflated mark. Back down 5lb tonight to a more realistic level. Seems to be at its best trip judged on easy win at Southwell 2 starts ago and a cracking run last term over C&D when 4th in a big 26 runner Class 2 handicap. On a decent mark and is capable in this grade. Interestingly this horse generally runs well when dropped in mark so the ease of 5lb tonight could again prove important. If we ignore the last run when the ground was too soft, has a major chance on its 2 runs prior. Better ground will suit, as well the track. Good EW chance in this company.

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stewartd14

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Poor run of 3 straight losers - at those prices thats not half bad after an 18/1 winner. Suppose you redeemed yourself anyway with that Masai Moon ....... :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap

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RussP

RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

8.10 Newmarket With 2 out of the race, 13 line up for this 7f handicap, Class 3. A hot fav in Kal Barg but this gives us some cracking EW value and the one I've plumped for is: Masai Moon (16/1 Betfred) - Need to completely ignore last run where the horse was totally outclassed and off an inflated mark. Back down 5lb tonight to a more realistic level. Seems to be at its best trip judged on easy win at Southwell 2 starts ago and a cracking run last term over C&D when 4th in a big 26 runner Class 2 handicap. On a decent mark and is capable in this grade. Interestingly this horse generally runs well when dropped in mark so the ease of 5lb tonight could again prove important. If we ignore the last run when the ground was too soft, has a major chance on its 2 runs prior. Better ground will suit, as well the track. Good EW chance in this company.
Phew! After 3 losers today, it was looking like a total disaster until the kid James Millman rides a peach of a race and Masai Moon scoots up. Led at a very steady pace before kicking clear 2f out. Was never in danger, won by 2.5L. Well done, young James:clap 16/1 winner takes the profit over the 100pt mark for the season, with a yield of 70%+.:clap Thanks for all the kind comments too;).
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