RussP Posted February 28, 2008 Author Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 8.50 Kempton 3 decent sized field handicaps tonight, but the one to concentrate on is this one, with 12 runners lining up over 6f, in Class 5 0-75. Quite a few in-form horses here, yet no lto winners. I expect this to be run at a decent clip, with many of the market leaders likely to up there from the start. Despite this, there are quite a few hold up performers in this, so I’m preferring something that can sit just off the pace, and one that has a decent draw so it can claim a nice position early on. The current fav is Diriculous from the Terry Mills yard. Had won 2 on the trot, before coming unstuck lto off the same mark as tonight. However, missed the break that day over an inadequate 5f so cannot totally be dismissed, but this is a step up in class and I couldn’t take a short price about this horse being good enough to make this grade. 42 day absence for a sprinter is another negative in the box. Mr Cellophane has a touch of 2nd’itis, finishing in that position on its last 2 starts. Has a poor win ratio, and is raised 2lb for those last 2 efforts, when looking all over the winner last time at Kempton. Is not totally straightforward and I couldn’t back any horse that essentially is penalised for not winning. Don’t Tell Sue is next in the market, and don’t tell me you’re backing this! Another penalised for coming 2nd, has a poor draw which is crucial here over this trip, and could quite easily suffer the bounce factor tonight. Amazingly, we have now covered the front 3 in the market and I couldn’t be backing any of these. Next in the betting is Divertimenti, the one that will carry my money. Steadily dropping in the weights in the face of some difficult tasks, this horse is now just 2lb above its last winning mark. Has a good draw in box 8 and should sit just off the pace, ready to pounce in the last 1.5f. This horse always travels well and needs a strong pace which it should get here. One point to note is that it prefers racing in biggish fields, with all its form in fields of 10+ runners, probably because it gets the strong pace. Over preferred trip tonight of 6f, has been campaigned over further, and 10/1 looks a big price to me. The other horse that could go well here is top weight, Resplendent Alpha. Another dropping in the handicap, and races for the first time in this company which could be a big pointer. Drawn in 5 so could have been better but the biggest concern is that it is often slowly away, so may be better suited by an extra furlong. Despite this, it is another with a good EW shout. Bertie Southstreet is one of 3 from the Jim Best yard, and is more than capable on its day. However, is a frustrating sort (I know, I’ve backed it before!) and is often well supported, but too often flatters to deceive. Good draw and has Seb on top but very poor win/place strike rate so I’ll be taking this horse on, especially as it probably needs to be eased a bit in the weights. The other 2 from the Best yard are the 2 at the foot of the weights, Hucking Hill and Monashee Prince. The former is drawn well and has the useful Hayley Turner on board. Is dropped 1lb for this run, goes well at Kempton but its tendency to be held up could again be its undoing. It is no forlorn hope if ridden a little more prominently but a place is probably the best it can hope for. The latter, meanwhile, is going well in lesser company than this but is raised a couple of pounds for its last 2 efforts, despite not getting its head in front. With an average draw too, I see no reason why this horse will be crowned prince in this better race. Grimes Faith has been doing ok in claimers but was turned over at odds on 2 starts ago and disappointed lto. Now back in handicap company, this horse would have to show significant improvement to be competitive here and is readily overlooked. Bobby Rose is drawn well and is a decent animal on its day but 121 day absence is more than enough to make me dismiss its chances. Obe Royal and Red Rudy are others in decent fettle at present, but both race off the same mark as lto, and have the worst of the draw in 2 and 1 respectively so cannot be advised. The EW bet is Divertimenti. Predicted finishing order:- 1 Divertimenti (11/1 William Hill) 2 Resplendent Alpha 3 Hucking Hill 4 Mr Cellophane Big prices here, so let’s hope for an upset. Best prices on the front 3 are 11/1, 11/1 and 14/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) :hope For tonight mate. Just took a look at dutching the front 3 for £18 to win £60:unsure At the prices you say going to have a search around, but deffo on your one :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted February 28, 2008 Author Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Absolutely shite. Sorry all. Need to reassess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted March 20, 2008 Author Share Posted March 20, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Less than 48 hours to go until the 2008 flat turf season and I cannot wait. I will be focusing on all age handicaps only, and will be excluding anything on the AW. I class big fields as anything with runners in double figures and will only be looking for EW bets, there will be no win only. All bets will be settled to 5pts EW, although my actual stakes will be higher. My results for the 2007 season are as follows:- Staked = 1040.00pts Returned = 1669.27pts Profit = +629.27pts Yield = +60.5%:nana Bets = 105 Winners = 19 (18.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 41 (39.0% s/r) If I can follow that up, I'd be absolutely delighted. Discipline, again, is the key and I will only be betting in flat handicaps. Good luck to anyone who follows.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) I'll be following with interest !! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pot rice Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) I'll be following you as well Russ. I much prefer the flat. Best of luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pot rice Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) meant to ask............will you be starting a new thread for the flat or just continuing here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted March 21, 2008 Author Share Posted March 21, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) meant to ask............will you be starting a new thread for the flat or just continuing here? Continuing here, mate:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pot rice Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Continuing here' date=' mate:ok[/quote'] Nice one. I shall follow closely :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good luck with this Russ - that's a helluva yield over such a long period, I'll be following with interest :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomo14 Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Your the BEST around mate winners galore with you good luck for the new flat season got a feeling you wont need it :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good luck for the season ahead RUSS :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good Luck for the season ahead Russ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) I won't say good luck mate cos you don't need it, stick to finding the "best handicapped" horses and you'll be firing in those double figure winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted March 22, 2008 Author Share Posted March 22, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Ok, so here we are again and we kick off the 2008 flat season with a bet at the opening meeting:- 4.00 Doncaster The Lincoln handicap, traditionally a tough race to solve, but I'm having a bet in this and taking the early price on YEAMANS HALL (8/1 Betfred). Many people will wait for the draw bias to be evident but I'm not certain that there will be one and I'm looking where the pace is likely to be. There is pace middle to high, and this horse is drawn in 21 of 22. Things to look for in this handicap are a well handicapped horse that has scope for improvement and one that races up with the pace. This horse will almost certainly race prominent in this race which will be a big plus, and looks the type to develop in a possible group performer this term as a 4yo. I personally believe there are a lot of poorly handicapped horses in this race and this animal stands out to me. Dropped 3lb from its last run where it wasn't given the best of rides, and with the very useful 3lb claimer William Buick on board, it is essentially 6lb well in. This is a big horse so I think it is well suited by a flat track over a straight course which it gets here. Very lightly raced and is expected to have come on over the winter, it opened its account with a very useful 2nd in a maiden at 28/1, pulling clear of the rest of the field. Followed that with a very game win at Sandown when headed inside the last but fought back well. Was then stepped up to Group company in Ireland, when failing to stay 10f but looked in with every chance when coming to challenge 2 out. The ground was also a bit too lively that day. It's last run was its handicap debut at Sandown off 103. Was challenging inside the final furlong before just fading into 7th. However, was slow out of the stalls and had to be driven to get into the pack, and struggled round the bend. Dropped 3lb for that promising effort to 100, and with the extra 3lb from the jockey, looks to be well handicapped here. Assuming there is no draw bias and the horse is fit and well, I think the 8/1 currently on offer is massive and wouldn't be surprised to see a big gamble on this horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted March 24, 2008 Author Share Posted March 24, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) A poor opening to the season with Yeamans Hall finishing 7th, although it looked to hold every chance 2f out. Onto today:- 2.20 Warwick The opening race on the card sees a 5f Class 5 sprint with 14 runners battling it out. I had hoped for a bigger price on my selection but I'm still pretty sweet on the chances of: Misaro (6/1 Betfred) - Currently 2nd fav who holds a big chance today under these conditions. Trailblazer who isn't ideally drawn in box 10 but did scoot up by 3L the last time it ran here, coincidentally from the same draw. This horse is fit from the AW and has put in some decent efforts in better class races than this and off much higher marks. Races off a mark today of just 71 and steps back into Class 5. It's last run in Class 5 was 16 starts ago where it won convincingly, off 72. Has run off marks 78 and upwards since so the big drop has to be of interest. Has held its form well, will appreciate the going and from a stable going well at present. Must go very close and is considered a major E/W bet to nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted March 24, 2008 Author Share Posted March 24, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) A poor opening to the season with Yeamans Hall finishing 7th, although it looked to hold every chance 2f out. Onto today:- 2.20 Warwick The opening race on the card sees a 5f Class 5 sprint with 14 runners battling it out. I had hoped for a bigger price on my selection but I'm still pretty sweet on the chances of: Misaro (6/1 Betfred) - Currently 2nd fav who holds a big chance today under these conditions. Trailblazer who isn't ideally drawn in box 10 but did scoot up by 3L the last time it ran here, coincidentally from the same draw. This horse is fit from the AW and has put in some decent efforts in better class races than this and off much higher marks. Races off a mark today of just 71 and steps back into Class 5. It's last run in Class 5 was 16 starts ago where it won convincingly, off 72. Has run off marks 78 and upwards since so the big drop has to be of interest. Has held its form well, will appreciate the going and from a stable going well at present. Must go very close and is considered a major E/W bet to nothing. Non runner:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted March 29, 2008 Author Share Posted March 29, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 4.45 Doncaster A Class 4 handicap here over 10f, on soft ground, with currently 16 runners so paying the 4 places. John Dunlop has the 4/1 fav but I’m not convinced it has achieved enough on the racecourse to warrant such a price, so the preference is for proven form in: Best Prospect (7/1 Betfred) - Always on the look out for a horse that has its ideal conditions, is one of the classier types in the field, capable of winning of its current mark, and this horse fit’s the bill today. Races today off a mark of 85 (which it has won off before), but the main positive is the class of race it is contesting. Glancing back at its form, it only raced in this grade once last year from 10 starts, coming home the winner at Haydock. Has solid form in Class 2/3 handicaps but is dropped in both mark and class for this run. It’s recent form is solid too, 8th on its last start in a very competitive Class 2 race at Newbury and previous to that was 3rd of 12 (Class 3 at York). Races over its ideal distance and has a nice draw in stall 1, on this left handed track. Is generally held up for a run and travels well in its races so this long straight at Doncaster should be an advantage. Has regular pilot on board and is race fit, having been campaigned over hurdles. The ground should be perfect too, always preferring the easy side of ground. In its 9 turf flat races last term, its form on going softer than good was 6th (trip too sharp), 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 8th (outclassed) against form of 8th, 13th, 11th, 7th on good ground or better. Should get a decent tow here and will be produced with a late effort, 7/1 looks a decent EW bet against many exposed and/or poorly handicapped rivals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sebastian Bach Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Absolutely fantastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) showing us up now Russ!!! well done mate, great price also:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munki Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Brilliant stuff Russ :clap:clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Wish I'd seen this earlier, just got back from Donny, could have had 13-2 on course for this. Fancied it but decided to leave it alone and then saw it win really easily, jockey just cruised to the front. Nice winner mate, ideal ground today. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomo14 Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 4.45 Doncaster A Class 4 handicap here over 10f, on soft ground, with currently 16 runners so paying the 4 places. John Dunlop has the 4/1 fav but I’m not convinced it has achieved enough on the racecourse to warrant such a price, so the preference is for proven form in: Best Prospect (7/1 Betfred) - Always on the look out for a horse that has its ideal conditions, is one of the classier types in the field, capable of winning of its current mark, and this horse fit’s the bill today. Races today off a mark of 85 (which it has won off before), but the main positive is the class of race it is contesting. Glancing back at its form, it only raced in this grade once last year from 10 starts, coming home the winner at Haydock. Has solid form in Class 2/3 handicaps but is dropped in both mark and class for this run. It’s recent form is solid too, 8th on its last start in a very competitive Class 2 race at Newbury and previous to that was 3rd of 12 (Class 3 at York). Races over its ideal distance and has a nice draw in stall 1, on this left handed track. Is generally held up for a run and travels well in its races so this long straight at Doncaster should be an advantage. Has regular pilot on board and is race fit, having been campaigned over hurdles. The ground should be perfect too, always preferring the easy side of ground. In its 9 turf flat races last term, its form on going softer than good was 6th (trip too sharp), 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 8th (outclassed) against form of 8th, 13th, 11th, 7th on good ground or better. Should get a decent tow here and will be produced with a late effort, 7/1 looks a decent EW bet against many exposed and/or poorly handicapped rivals. OUTSTANDING Tipping excellent winner from the best around keep them coming mate :nana:nana:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted March 29, 2008 Author Share Posted March 29, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers guys, appreciate the support:ok 4.45 Doncaster A Class 4 handicap here over 10f, on soft ground, with currently 16 runners so paying the 4 places. John Dunlop has the 4/1 fav but I’m not convinced it has achieved enough on the racecourse to warrant such a price, so the preference is for proven form in: Best Prospect (7/1 Betfred) - Always on the look out for a horse that has its ideal conditions, is one of the classier types in the field, capable of winning of its current mark, and this horse fit’s the bill today. Races today off a mark of 85 (which it has won off before), but the main positive is the class of race it is contesting. Glancing back at its form, it only raced in this grade once last year from 10 starts, coming home the winner at Haydock. Has solid form in Class 2/3 handicaps but is dropped in both mark and class for this run. It’s recent form is solid too, 8th on its last start in a very competitive Class 2 race at Newbury and previous to that was 3rd of 12 (Class 3 at York). Races over its ideal distance and has a nice draw in stall 1, on this left handed track. Is generally held up for a run and travels well in its races so this long straight at Doncaster should be an advantage. Has regular pilot on board and is race fit, having been campaigned over hurdles. The ground should be perfect too, always preferring the easy side of ground. In its 9 turf flat races last term, its form on going softer than good was 6th (trip too sharp), 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 8th (outclassed) against form of 8th, 13th, 11th, 7th on good ground or better. Should get a decent tow here and will be produced with a late effort, 7/1 looks a decent EW bet against many exposed and/or poorly handicapped rivals. Delighted with this bet. Won in a canter and the result never in doubt. Went off as 9/2 2nd fav so beat the price too by taking the early 7's on offer.:ok Early figures are as follows: 2008 Turf Staked = 20.00pts Returned = 53.75pts Profit = +33.75pts Yield = +168.8% Bets = 2 Winners = 1 (50.0% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 1 (50.0% s/r) 2007 Turf Staked = 1040.00pts Returned = 1669.27pts Profit = +629.27pts Yield = +60.5% Bets = 105 Winners = 19 (18.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 41 (39.0% s/r) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers guys, appreciate the support:ok Delighted with this bet. Won in a canter and the result never in doubt. Went off as 9/2 2nd fav so beat the price too by taking the early 7's on offer.:ok Early figures are as follows: 2008 Turf Staked = 20.00pts Returned = 53.75pts Profit = +33.75pts Yield = +168.8% Bets = 2 Winners = 1 (50.0% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 1 (50.0% s/r) 2007 Turf Staked = 1040.00pts Returned = 1669.27pts Profit = +629.27pts Yield = +60.5% Bets = 105 Winners = 19 (18.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 41 (39.0% s/r) Brilliant start Russ! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernRed2 Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Just like to say what an amazing tip, bit of a lurker me in the racing section, but always keep an eye on the tips, watched the race in the bookies won easily. My and the missus are off to the national next week so any tips will be great. Anyone tell i've been out for the UTD match:lol:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Superb stuff Russ mate :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted March 29, 2008 Author Share Posted March 29, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Note: I will only put my strongest bets in this thread and my stakes on these will reflect that. I will still be posting bets in the daily threads too, which I will back but to a slightly lesser stake:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted April 5, 2008 Author Share Posted April 5, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2.10 Lingfield 14 runners go to post for this 7f Class 3 handicap. There are some decent types contesting this but the market revolves around a lto maiden winner and a horse off the track for 12 months. For that reason, I think there is a bit of EW value here and I'm sweet on the chances of: Yarqus (8/1 Betfred) - A frustrating type who struggles to get its head in front, however conditions look perfect for a big run today. Has been extremely well with good efforts in the Royal Hunt Cup and the Cambridgeshire last term amongst others. Has always looked at its best when ridden prominently and with strong handling. Has the best jockey in the plate today, taking over from Hayley Turner, and that could make the difference. Is also dropped in class today which will suit as well as being fit from a couple of spins on this surface. In those 2 races, finished reasonably close up in decent races, the Winter Derby trial and the Lincoln trial. Is eased a little in mark too, now off 89 meaning it can get in this 0-90 contest. Having watched back its recent races, I'm certain this drop in trip won't be a problem as it usually picks up well from close to the pace but gets collared late on when trying to see out the trip. Stable has been going well early season too so I make this the best EW bet of the day at an early 8/1. That price won't last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pot rice Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good luck today Russ. I follow this thread with great interest. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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