RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[diamond1924]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) form temporary, class permanent, don't forget.:ok

[kevshat]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

The way they are running at the minute' date=' the price should be increasing:lol[/quote'] It's a pity they didn't increase the price on the Borzov yesterday ;):lol.

[Ratmouth]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Another 2nd Russ. Nice one.

[BillyHills]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Russ' date=' do you ever notice how quickly the SP drops after you tip a horse up?[/quote'] Funny one that, Rob took 7/1 at 3.52, the NR's and rule 4 came through at 4.09 so they were a bit slow at Hills or did you get the price from a comparison site Russ?

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Funny one that' date=' Rob took 7/1 at 3.52, the NR's and rule 4 came through at 4.09 so they were a bit slow at Hills or did you get the price from a comparison site Russ?[/quote'] I took the 7's in the shop about 3.30pm and posted it up on here when I got home so have to admit I didn't check latest price:$:ok For thread purposes, I should take the best price available when I posted it in here....do you know what it was, Gra? Cheers;)

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Disappointing day again yesterday. Green Park was never in it, I guess the ground hadn't quite cut up as much as I though. Gift Horse, meanwhile, remains winless for a few years but ran a good race taking 2nd, having been backed in to favourite. Loss on the day.

[fintron]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) RE William Hill, they are the very last of the firms to alter their prices after NR's, so if ever there are NR's, and all other firms seem to have lowered their prices and Hills looked to go standout, its because they haven't altered their prices. I noticed this earlier in the season with one over the sticks, Hills were 7's and it was trading much lower on the exchanges. I smashed on thinking I had found an ideal arb and laid it off on Betfair, then Hills hit me with a R4 on the 'back' price. I still made a profit, but a lesson was learned to check their book was still over round next time!! Close with Gift Horse yesterday Russ....only a matter of time until you bag one.

[BillyHills]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

I took the 7's in the shop about 3.30pm and posted it up on here when I got home so have to admit I didn't check latest price:$:ok For thread purposes, I should take the best price available when I posted it in here....do you know what it was, Gra? Cheers;)

That explains it Russ, like Fin says some firms are slow to react which is good to know sometimes. Think you will have a R4 when you collect though, it was 10p I believe so it wont make much difference on the place bet and still much better off by taking a price.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

That explains it Russ' date=' like Fin says some firms are slow to react which is good to know sometimes. Think you will have a R4 when you collect though, it was 10p I believe so it wont make much difference on the place bet and still much better off by taking a price.[/quote'] :ok....Yes, you're right Graham, 10p Rule 4. Just looking at Monday's cards. Always disappointing as Windsor focuses on 3yo only handicaps, which I don't bet in but I'm confident there will be a bet at Bath. Will post it up later. After 20'ish losers now (but still clinging onto profit), I'm hoping for a trip to the winners enclosure this week:hope

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 4.00 Bath 11 runners for this Class 5, 0-70 handicap on the round course over a trip of 1 mile. First thing to note will be the going. It's good at present but rain expected over the next 18 hours, I would expect good to soft in places. Almost certain to start fav will be the top one, Fancy Footsteps from the in form Clive Cox yard. I can't be having this at the price, 6lb hike in the weights, only proven on the AW and off the track for over 4 months. If it takes to the surface and the absence doesn't hinder, it will go close but too many questions to be answer at a price around the 5/2 mark. April Fool is not totally discounted but significantly higher in the weights than when last appearing on turf so needs to take a step forward to win here. Direct Debit is out of form and appears to be on the downgrade so is confidently dismissed. Croeso Cusan has to step up on its form so far to figure. Ran 3 good races in succession at Brighton last term but poor reappearance run, higher mark and up in grade all count as negatives. Full Victory looks on a downward spiral but is dropping to a tempting mark. Has possibilities on very old form but isn't one to backing with confidence until signs of return to form is visible. Tignello is prominent in the market but step up in class, with only a 1lb lower mark isn't enough to make this a viable proposition. Master Mahogany goes well here, is back in trip and has ground to suit but again I'd like to see signs of a revival before going in, although the big price makes it worth considering. Rock Anthem has claims but has been off the track for 3 months and returns to turf. Likely to enjoy the ground, another with an EW chance. Wavertree Warrior is on a very low mark, having been classy a couple of years ago. Really positive jockey booking in young William Buick but this horse is winless in over 2 years and is a little short to be on here. Amber Ridge is out of the handicap and a maiden, cannot be backed. This leaves us with one and the bet is: Maybe I Will (RPF 10/1) - Looks to have a cracking chance in this field. This horse is dropped 1 grade and 3lb since last run and that is generally a sign of intent, provided a horse is still capable of good form and is not on the downgrade. I'm happy with the trainer & jockey here, one of the best to have in the plate whilst the stable has a super strike rate here. The horse has another entry later this week in a better race than this so it's interesting that it goes here and may mean connections are expecting it to produce its best form. Has a great record at the track, with 2 wins from 3 runs at prices of 33/1 and 16/1. Conditions seem right today with class, going, track, distance and mark all favourable. Looking back at its form since winning twice over C&D last summer, the horse has won once and finished nowhere on its other 5 starts. Interestingly the win came off a mark of 66 in this grade, whilst all the duck eggs have been in Class 4 races. Ran poorly on its reappearance but hopefully that will have sharpened the horse up and I'm confident of a big run at a decent price.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) NR:sad

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 5.20 Haydock With the ground turning to soft, heavy in places, and 4 NR's declared, we now have a field of 12 for this Class 5, 10f handicap at my local track. Benedict Spirit is the current fav but a bout of seconditis makes it opposable, whilst the other prominet one, Kalasam, is unproven on the ground. Therefore, I am on: Animator (12/1 Bet365 BOG) - This horse has a major chance today and looks a big EW price. Has won 3 of its 12 career starts and, trawling through the form, looks set to produce its best today. Last term was with Paul Cole and won 2 handicaps, off 74 and 67. Races off 69 today so mark is clearly in the right area. However, what I think is more important could be the ground and the trip. There are excuses for almost all its runs since including 3 no shows over 12f, clearly a trip too far, 1 over a mile, a trip too short and a poor effort lto on very firm ground. The only other run was a pleasing 3rd in a Class 5 claimer on good ground. Won at Windsor at 10/1 last term on good to soft ground and these conditions might just suit even more. Seasonal reappearance will have put the horse spot on and in a race that won't take a great deal of winning, I fancy this horse to bring home the money.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 6.30 Salisbury 4 NR's cutting the field to 14 for this Class 6, 6f handicap. For me, this is a track where course winners go in again and we have 3 to consider here. Stamford Blue has claims but the fact that its winless for 2 years tempers enthusiasm, whilst Castano almost certainly needs softer ground. This leaves us with 1 and, coincidentally, the longest price of the 3 in: Bold Argument (12/1 Ladbrokes) - Joint top weight here, this horse comes with a major chance in this company. This horse has shown nothing so far this term but that only helps the price, now it is dropped 2 grades and 4lb in the handicap. Hails from an unfashionable yard but the yard is 1 from 1 with its flat runners in the last 14 days whilst both the jockey and trainer have nice course figures. Won its last start here, off the same mark as today but down in grade over 5f. Likely to be suited by the extra furlong. Was a progressive type in this grade early last term before its progression evened out faced with some more difficult challenges. Since upped to marks in the 60's, has recorded figures of 6th in a Class 5 on ground too soft, 2nd in a Class 5, a disappointing 5th in this grade, a no show over 7f on the AW before winning here. On its return this season, finished unpl on the AW again over a distance too far, before its lto run at Windsor on wrong ground, wrong grade and too high a mark. That has served to bring its mark right down and I expect this to be day where it comes back to form with a bang at super odds.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

5.20 Haydock With the ground turning to soft, heavy in places, and 4 NR's declared, we now have a field of 12 for this Class 5, 10f handicap at my local track. Benedict Spirit is the current fav but a bout of seconditis makes it opposable, whilst the other prominet one, Kalasam, is unproven on the ground. Therefore, I am on: Animator (12/1 Bet365 BOG) - This horse has a major chance today and looks a big EW price. Has won 3 of its 12 career starts and, trawling through the form, looks set to produce its best today. Last term was with Paul Cole and won 2 handicaps, off 74 and 67. Races off 69 today so mark is clearly in the right area. However, what I think is more important could be the ground and the trip. There are excuses for almost all its runs since including 3 no shows over 12f, clearly a trip too far, 1 over a mile, a trip too short and a poor effort lto on very firm ground. The only other run was a pleasing 3rd in a Class 5 claimer on good ground. Won at Windsor at 10/1 last term on good to soft ground and these conditions might just suit even more. Seasonal reappearance will have put the horse spot on and in a race that won't take a great deal of winning, I fancy this horse to bring home the money.

Drifted like a barge, finished a distance last. Poor, poor showing:$

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

6.30 Salisbury 4 NR's cutting the field to 14 for this Class 6, 6f handicap. For me, this is a track where course winners go in again and we have 3 to consider here. Stamford Blue has claims but the fact that its winless for 2 years tempers enthusiasm, whilst Castano almost certainly needs softer ground. This leaves us with 1 and, coincidentally, the longest price of the 3 in: Bold Argument (12/1 Ladbrokes) - Joint top weight here, this horse comes with a major chance in this company. This horse has shown nothing so far this term but that only helps the price, now it is dropped 2 grades and 4lb in the handicap. Hails from an unfashionable yard but the yard is 1 from 1 with its flat runners in the last 14 days whilst both the jockey and trainer have nice course figures. Won its last start here, off the same mark as today but down in grade over 5f. Likely to be suited by the extra furlong. Was a progressive type in this grade early last term before its progression evened out faced with some more difficult challenges. Since upped to marks in the 60's, has recorded figures of 6th in a Class 5 on ground too soft, 2nd in a Class 5, a disappointing 5th in this grade, a no show over 7f on the AW before winning here. On its return this season, finished unpl on the AW again over a distance too far, before its lto run at Windsor on wrong ground, wrong grade and too high a mark. That has served to bring its mark right down and I expect this to be day where it comes back to form with a bang at super odds.

Well backed and finished in the money. 3rd at 7/1:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Still struggling to find that elusive winner but most of the bets are running well enough. Thanks to a big winner earlier in the season, still in profit of about 60pts, a yield of c.20%. Will update stats over the weekend. I've got a shortlist of 3 bets for tomorrow, I'll post up the final selections later. Looks like the bigger field handicaps are beginning to come thick & fast:nana

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 3 bets coming up for Friday: 5.15 Newmarket Expecting to see 11 runners for this Class 5, 1m handicap at HQ. Looking at these individually, I'm opposing Indian Skipper as it is an example of a horse raised in mark without winning. Up 2lb for a 2L 2nd lto, will need to step up and I think this mark is too high. Similar comments apply to Driven, raised in mark for a 2nd lto but the horse is on the upgrade and probably justifies favouritism. However, the rise in weights makes it an opposable fav at around 11/4. Grand Vizier has claims if fully wound up ans won first time up last term but 6/1 RPF is plenty short enough after 7 months off. Sonny Parkin is better on the July course, makes its seasonal reappearance and doesn't look particularly well handicapped. Thunder Gorge may be better on an easier surface and has a poor strike rate, shown nothing so far this term either. Charlevoix won lto and has a great record on quick ground so is a real danger but again, I'd prefer to seek out some EW value, it certainly looks one for the placepot. Bahiano also has claims off this mark but suggestion the downgrade has firmly kicked in and I think price will be a little prohibitive with Ryan Moore on board. Steig is poorly handicapped and will struggle here whilst the other 2 looks outclassed. This leaves us with one at a very tempting double figure price in: Marning Star (RPF 12/1) - Consistent type and still quite lightly raced so I think there is improvement to be had from this horse. Seems to have ideal conditions for the race with class, mark, trip and going all looking ideal for the first time in quite a while. Since winning in a Class 4 at Haydock last summer off a 4lb higher mark, has failed to get its head in front but with valid excuses. Finished 3rd nto off 79 (8lb higher than today) but 3 of the 6 went off at a furious pace and it was almost certain something from behind would take the event, and followed that up with a poor run off the same mark when the ground was heavy and clearly didn't suit. Came back in Jan and had 2 runs on the AW followed by a run on turf where, each time, the trip was too far and the horse didn't get home. Has been dropped a grade as well as 4lb for the run and, with a 2f less trip also strongly in its favour, this is no way at 12/1 shot in my eyes.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2nd bet: 5.35 Newcastle Class 6 handicap over 10f with 16 runners, although I'd be surprised if there wasn't a few non runners on this soft surface. Safebreaker is a real consistent type and might be able to defy this mark but at a bigger price, I'll take my chance on: Bourse (RPF 10/1) - Owner / trainer sends this horse down from Scotland where I feel it will run a big race. Jockey gets on well with the stables horses and has a decent strike rate on them. Looks well handicapped and drop in grade sure to suit here, as is the prevailing ground. Jockey has only rode the horse once on turf, that was on soft ground, where it landed the spoils at 14/1. Let's hope a follow up occurs. Won at the end of last season on soft, in a Class 4 and 1lb higher than today. On that form, the horse is sure to go well. Since then, has has 2 run over sticks, 2 on unsuitable AW, and 3 more on turf. There were off marks of 69 in a Class 4, 65 in a Class 5 and 66 in a Class 4. Now back to 63 in a Class 6, should prove significant. Not disgraced in any of those runs and best one was the most recent when upped to 9f, staying on well at the end. The extra furlong again will suit and, facing an easier task than it has for a while, is sure to go close.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Final bet from the evening racing: 7.50 Haydock This looks a nice contest, a 5f cavalry charge with 14 runners for this Class 4 event. Several in with a chance here but looking at the early prices, the one I can't resist is: Foxy Music (16/1 Bet365 BOG) - Has been freshened up on the AW in 2 runs this terms and looks prepared to go well here. C&D winner on its only start here on heavy going so ideal conditions to repeat it, the only question mark being its poor strike rate. If we discount all runs in the last 12 months on good ground or better, we are left with 4 runs to look at. Finished 2.5L 4th of 12 off 1lb higher mark at Carlisle in the grade early last summer, following that with a poor run at Beverley. However, I always find form from there suspect so happy to ignore. The horse is better judged on a fine 2nd of 15 at 28/1 in a Class 2 handicap off 78 on G/S, and then a 1L 4th of 16 in this grade at Ponty. Good jockey booking and a good draw on this ground. AW didn't really suit but should have sharpened up the horse. Trainers local track and combo are 2 from 7 this term, I'm hopeful that strike rate can be improved here at a massive price.

[Franklyn]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good Luck Bhoy

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2 very poor runs so far today, sorry all:sad

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Foxy Music 4th. On my worst ever losing run by a country mile. 28 runners without a win (a few 2nd / 3rds in there) and no winner since 14th Feb, over 3 months since my last visit to the winners enclosure:sad. Apologies to anyone who has followed. But not to worry, I am not giving up. This will only serve to make me stronger. That winner has to come soon. My birthday weekend so hoping to celebrate by getting back on the right track:ok

[staffy]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) I am sure the winner will be there soon matey.

[cc75]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Foxy Music 4th. On my worst ever losing run by a country mile. 28 runners without a win (a few 2nd / 3rds in there) and no winner since 14th Feb, over 3 months since my last visit to the winners enclosure:sad. Apologies to anyone who has followed. But not to worry, I am not giving up. This will only serve to make me stronger. That winner has to come soon. My birthday weekend so hoping to celebrate by getting back on the right track:ok

It'll come Russ, don't fret. Keep the faith and have a good birthday mate :cheers

[fintron]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Chin up Russ, what is they say about form and class again? Funny old game this racing, once you hit one, many others will follow.:ok

[jtw1]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

But not to worry, I am not giving up. This will only serve to make me stronger. That winner has to come soon. My birthday weekend so hoping to celebrate by getting back on the right track:ok

Thats what i like to hear RUSS :clap , chin up sir you know that winner is just one post away :ok

[kevshat]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) They'll come mate, just be patient :ok. Once the 1st one comes in a stack of them will do :nana.

[mowgli77]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) You'll only need the 1 winner to get you back on track and that profit figure will be rocketing up again. :ok

[divot2583]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) London buses russ. You can wait ages for one then when one comes there will be hundreds. Keep the faith.

[billy the punter]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Think I'm the 8th person now to reply - what does that tell you? Don't change anything. Tried and tested mate. You know the score. ;)