Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter

Normally at Cheltenham, I have strong fancies in the 4 main races but this year, I'm not confident on anything. Looks like I'll just be following Bowles' tips this year.

http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=25931&page=2 my stats thread from last year. Same principles this year based on trends for each race. It takes a bit of time to sort out, but well worth it. personally, i tend to back 2 in each race rather than EW. That way i get 2 horses running for money. The place money isn't worth it.

[RussP]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Superb mate. Let's hope you can repeat the dose this year. You clearly put a load of work into this:notworthy I know it's all based on stats, but do you share what filters are in place for each race? (ie, 9 out of last 10 winners won lto). It would make very interesting reading for me, but I would completely understand if you'd prefer to keep them to yourselves:ok Really looking forward to it this year:drums

[leics poshie]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Last year's runner-up Hedgehunter is among the horses to have been taken out of the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup at the latest forfeit stage. Other notable defections include Monet's Garden, Hi Cloy and Sir Rembrandt. Kauto Star heads the 29 horses who have been left in the showpiece on March 16. The Paul Nicholls-trained seven-year-old, who completed his preparation for chasing's most prestigious prize with victory in the AON Chase at Newbury, is set to face opposition from the likes of last year's hero War Of Attrition, Exotic Dancer, State Of Play and The Listener. Twenty horses, including Monet's Garden, are still engaged for the £310,000 Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase on March 14. Last year's winner Newmill, 2006 Irish Independent Arkle Trophy hero and ante-post favourite Well Chief all stand their ground. In Compliance, Kauto Star and Central House are amongst those withdrawn from the two-mile contest. All of the main contenders remain in the shake-up for the £360,000 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle. Last year's winner Brave Inca and dual Champion Hurdle scorer Hardy Eustace are still involved - as are ante-post favourite Detroit City, Macs Joy, Newmill and Straw Bear. Black Jack Ketchum heads 31 entries who are still in the hat for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle on March 15. Dom D'Orgeval and Redemption were two of just four horses taken out at the February 20 forfeit stage. Cheltenham communications manager Andy Clifton said: "The countdown to the Festival 2007 is well and truly underway with less than three weeks to go to the first day on Tuesday, March 13. "Following the forfeit stage, the potential fields for the 11 championship races look very strong indeed."

[weekendgambler]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Champion bumper Sergheyev @33/1 or so. anyone any thoughts its chances? In pipes yard now ........................ http://www.attheraces.com/form.asp?type=H&id=2354651&dte=2007-02-22

[mowgli77]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Don't like posting up other peoples tips but you can have a look at the horse and see what you think. I've just had a word from a bookie for a horse in the Triumph Hurdle and I know as fact that he has backed it with his own money. DUTY Has form on heavy over hurdles and was a half decent flat horse from Stoutes yard with form on good to firm. Best price available is 20-1 with Sporting Odds. Looks like it has a chance and might invest a few quid ew now its non runner no bet. :ok

[Dodger]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter I am a big fan of Kauto Star...yes there are some of us still out here! Maybe the 6/4 gives poor value Maybe the horse will not get round at Cheltenham, I just don't know and neither does anybody else. Kauto Star is surely the class act in the race, I haven't got this excited for years about any horse. He is a freak of nature maybe. With a heart seemingly as big as a bull elephants tied to an athleticism that allows him to get away with the occasional blunder and a cruising speed that makes most others wilt...these all make him a prodigious animal. I think it is more his concentration than his jumping that needs close attention...or is it the jockey's concentration that needs to be 100%??? OK then, if Kauto Star was a woman I would be jumping straight into bed. I am banking on Kauto Star, I just cannot see anything to beat him and am willing to endure possible heart stopping moments before he pulls clear on that final run in. The point of this post is to let people be aware that there are still those of us who believe this horse is something very, very special. but my question is this...available at 2.96 currently on betfair (5% comm. makes this over 2.8 NOT 6/4)...will I be able to get 2/1 before the race? With all the doubters out there, will some generous bookmaker risk such an offer. Or will he float out to 3.1 on betfair, which will again give the required 2/1 ??? And for those of you who are poo-pooing him at 6/4 as bad value...at what price would you reckon he DOES become the value bet in the race? For me it is 2/1...at 2/1 I will be lumping on (my lumps come in £20 sized chunks by the way...£40 would be the very shirt off my back!!!) Whatever happens with the Gold Cup I'd like to wish all PLers the best of luck over the festival :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter

but my question is this...available at 2.96 currently on betfair (5% comm. makes this over 2.8 NOT 6/4)...will I be able to get 2/1 before the race? With all the doubters out there, will some generous bookmaker risk such an offer. Or will he float out to 3.1 on betfair, which will again give the required 2/1 ??? And for those of you who are poo-pooing him at 6/4 as bad value...at what price would you reckon he DOES become the value bet in the race? For me it is 2/1...at 2/1 I will be lumping on (my lumps come in £20 sized chunks by the way...£40 would be the very shirt off my back!!!) Whatever happens with the Gold Cup I'd like to wish all PLers the best of luck over the festival :ok

Dodger - good post mate. Thats what this forum is about, opinions. I have posted mine as to why i beleive KS will not win. it is based purely on the stats, has no bearing on the horse, how it is trained or how good it is!! I agree, its a "potential" wonder horse as was Best Mate & a few others. I actually know the owner third hand & therefore thats why i put the post up in October BEFORE it had jumped a twig this year that it would win the king george. Value price for me would be 2/1 & i have a feeling that if Exotic Dancer, Incompliance & War of Attrition all line up, then this should be available on the day. Remember that the bookies may have doubles & trebles with other fav's so personally i would have half stake prior to the festival starting hoping that one of the big 4 fav's gets turned over before Friday Gold Cup day (aran concerto, detroit city, BJK & Well chief). I am still flabbergasted that Nicholls didnt include a Cheltenham race in the prep this season. Good luck whatever you decide to do.

[danj2202]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter

i would have half stake prior to the festival starting hoping that one of the big 4 fav's gets turned over before Friday Gold Cup day (aran concerto, detroit city, BJK & Well chief).

lets call it the big 5 and not leave denman off that list either - I work in a bookies and have been vocally against Kauto Star all season much to the delight of my punters who hope to rub it in all flat season if it wins - I dont believe it wins teh Gold Cup either for the little my opinion is worth :)

[Billboard]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter

Dodger - good post mate. Thats what this forum is about, opinions. I have posted mine as to why i beleive KS will not win. it is based purely on the stats, has no bearing on the horse, how it is trained or how good it is!! I agree, its a "potential" wonder horse as was Best Mate & a few others. I actually know the owner third hand & therefore thats why i put the post up in October BEFORE it had jumped a twig this year that it would win the king george. Value price for me would be 2/1 & i have a feeling that if Exotic Dancer, Incompliance & War of Attrition all line up, then this should be available on the day. Remember that the bookies may have doubles & trebles with other fav's so personally i would have half stake prior to the festival starting hoping that one of the big 4 fav's gets turned over before Friday Gold Cup day (aran concerto, detroit city, BJK & Well chief). I am still flabbergasted that Nicholls didnt include a Cheltenham race in the prep this season. Good luck whatever you decide to do.

Bowles, Not been posting here that long but I've always tended to go with the trends for the biggies. KS next year...this year my moneies in the pink box. Also fellow Lounger's....great Ante post bet for the Champion Hurdle 2009....Sparten Encore. I've a small share in him and he run over hurdles yesterday. He beat a Pipe horse by two lengths, when I went ot get my winnings the bookie told the jockey STILL had to be on the horse at the end. But he loved his run and will be back for next season...he looks good and one to watch. Cheers:ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter In Compliance will not line up for Gold Cup: http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/master.sd?psection=racingpost.co.uk&page=News&category=News&story_id=881507

[pete10]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Great stuff Bowles ,But where do you get your stats from ,Can they be found on the net?

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter

Great stuff Bowles ,But where do you get your stats from ,Can they be found on the net?

i mainly get mine from www.racingpost.com they are not in any particular section, i just do the form research on the horse or the race. :ok

[Kev100]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter :hope Hi all, A couple of fancies at the big meeting for me MY WAY DU SOLZEN (if he runs in the ryanair and not the Arkle) ALL STAR in the Jewson E/W value DENMAN as my Banker bet BLACK JACK KETCHUM nb Will place a Yankee on the selections if all is well after the 6th:hope

[pete10]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Thanks Bowles , I thought that might be the case looks like lots of study on the cards .

[RussP]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Pete10 - Attheraces has a special Cheltenham section, with trends:ok

[Woodie]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Bought the "Ultimate Guide For Cheltenham" got delivered today have to say for £2.95 it's a bloody good bargain! loads of reviews, stats, trends, interviews bets "2.95 I 've spent in a long time. A must buy imo :ok

[pete10]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Thanks for that guys i think i will get that little book & take a look at ATR site.

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter weather - 10 day forecast

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hopefulluy so dry weather behind the rain!

[djphatic]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Hi everyone. Just wondering whether anyone has details of the coverage of the festival this year, as C4 usually covers all but the last 2/3 races of each day but More4 have been showing extended coverage after C4 racing on Saturday afternoon, is this going to be the same over the festival? I know last year the last 2/3 races were covered on RacingUK, which I dont have. Any info much appreciated.

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter

Hi everyone. Just wondering whether anyone has details of the coverage of the festival this year, as C4 usually covers all but the last 2/3 races of each day but More4 have been showing extended coverage after C4 racing on Saturday afternoon, is this going to be the same over the festival? I know last year the last 2/3 races were covered on RacingUK, which I dont have. Any info much appreciated.

not sure if more4 will cover these. There are a few sites (think VC bet is one) which will show the race free if you stake £5 minimum bet on the race. RacingUk i think charge £1 a race on their website.

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter AK THOUGHT YOU WOULD LIKE TO KNOW... LORD OF ILLUSION (IRE) 10-y-o (1 Jun 1997) b g Entered in the following races 13 Mar 2007 4:00 (Four Day) at CHELTENHAM, William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase Grade 3 14 Mar 2007 4:40 (Five Day) at CHELTENHAM, Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders) 15 Mar 2007 4:00 (Five Day) at CHELTENHAM, Racing Post Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3

I thought Lord of Illusion made a promising reappearance over hurdles yesterday and will keep an eye on him for any Festival entries. One of the long distance races could be right up his street judged on the way he was making late progress yesterday only to run out of steam in the last couple of furlongs - understandable as it was his first race in nearly a year. Ive taken 150.0 for the Grand National, as that is his ultimate target and was running a good race last year before breaking a blood vessell. Should get a decent racing weight in that too.

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter for fcuks sake when will it stop raining!!! this is doing my head in, cant study until i know the ground!! Poxy Sandown looks like being called off at the weekend also :( , about time they spent some of thier money on basic drainage.

[RussP]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter

for fcuks sake when will it stop raining!!! this is doing my head in, cant study until i know the ground!! Poxy Sandown looks like being called off at the weekend also :( , about time they spent some of thier money on basic drainage.

You getting excited yet?:drums

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter one horse i feel will run well at the festival is VODKA BLEU, 3L 2nd to Exotic Dancer in the paddy power & returned to action when 4th behind Monets Garden recently at Ascot. looking at the horses record is much more effective in a small field : races of 10 or less runners: 4-10-1-1-3-2-1-1-2-1-1-1-P-3-8-2-3-1-1 (9 wins from 19 runs) races of more than 10 runners: P-2-6-1-5-5-U is most effective at around 2m 4f with a record of 6 runs 3 wins 2 places. record at cheltenham reads 4 runs 1 win 2 places entered in 5 races at the festival

:OWSize('RP_Home','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card.sd?race_id=424593&r_date=2007-3-13',840,750,'yes','yes','yes')'>13 Mar 2007 4:00	:OWSize('RP_Home','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card.sd?race_id=424593&r_date=2007-3-13',840,750,'yes','yes','yes')'>(Five Day) at CHELTENHAM, William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase Grade 3	:OWSize('','/pricebox/rp_pricebox.sd?price_box_uid=0001809804',800,350,'no','yes','yes')'> BET
:OWSize('RP_Home','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card.sd?race_id=424596&r_date=2007-3-14',840,750,'yes','yes','yes')'>14 Mar 2007 4:00	:OWSize('RP_Home','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card.sd?race_id=424596&r_date=2007-3-14',840,750,'yes','yes','yes')'>(Five Day) at CHELTENHAM, Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3	:OWSize('','/pricebox/rp_pricebox.sd?price_box_uid=0001810074',800,350,'no','yes','yes')'> BET
:OWSize('RP_Home','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card.sd?race_id=424597&r_date=2007-3-14',840,750,'yes','yes','yes')'>14 Mar 2007 4:40	:OWSize('RP_Home','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card.sd?race_id=424597&r_date=2007-3-14',840,750,'yes','yes','yes')'>(Five Day) at CHELTENHAM, Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)	:OWSize('','/pricebox/rp_pricebox.sd?price_box_uid=0001816225',800,350,'no','yes','yes')'> BET
:OWSize('RP_Home','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card.sd?race_id=424133&r_date=2007-3-15',840,750,'yes','yes','yes')'>15 Mar 2007 2:35	:OWSize('RP_Home','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card.sd?race_id=424133&r_date=2007-3-15',840,750,'yes','yes','yes')'>(Five Day) at CHELTENHAM, Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy) Grade 2	:OWSize('','/pricebox/rp_pricebox.sd?price_box_uid=0001725995',800,350,'no','yes','yes')'> BET
:OWSize('RP_Home','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card.sd?race_id=424677&r_date=2007-3-15',840,750,'yes','yes','yes')'>15 Mar 2007 4:00	:OWSize('RP_Home','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card.sd?race_id=424677&r_date=2007-3-15',840,750,'yes','yes','yes')'>(Five Day) at CHELTENHAM, Racing Post Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 The 2 latter races are over 2m 5f which will be perfect for the horse. its 50/1 Tote for the Ryanair & 14/1 Betfred for the plate. Backing both to win now its NR no bet

[RussP]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Please, please do NOT let this bet come in....... William Hills are offering 10/1 that the 1st day of the Festival is abandoned:(

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter

Please, please do NOT let this bet come in....... William Hills are offering 10/1 that the 1st day of the Festival is abandoned:(

:eek suppose its worth a tenner to make up for the lost enjoyment forecast is on/off rain for the next week so :hope it will only be soft at worse for those interested in the TV package

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[Jamesdeanbadfingers]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter

Event:	totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup; totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup
Market:	Ante Post
Selection:	Kauto Star@11/8
Event:	Royal and SunAlliance Chase; Royal and Sun Alliance Novice Chase
Market:	Ante Post
Selection:	Denman@5/4
Event:	Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle; Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle
Market:	Ante Post
Selection:	Aran Concerto@2/1
Event:	National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup; National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
Market:	Ante Post
Selection:	Gungadu@11/10
Event:	Derby; Vodafone Derby
Market:	Ante Post
Selection:	Teofilo@3/1
Event:	Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle; Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle
Market:	Ante Post
Selection:	Hardy Eustace@9/2
Event:	Queen Mother Champion Chase; Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase
Market:	Ante Post
Selection:	Well Chief@7/4
Event:	Ladbrokes World Hurdle; Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Market:	Ante Post
Selection:	Inglis Drever@7/2

28 x £1 6-folds 8 x £1 7-folds 1 x £1 8-fold acc. £37 STAKED :unsure :loon :lol :hope Long, long, long shot - but retiral beckons if they all roll in...cha right!

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter good luck what does it pay? the roll up pays over £9k GL

[Hackett01]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter

Maguire suffers Cheltenham blow

Trainer Adrian Maguire has suffered Cheltenham Festival heartache after his World Hurdle contender Celestial Wave was ruled out with a minor injury.

Any more rain i imagine a few will be getting pulled .... best look at mudlarks from Ireland that like running in peatbogs with plenty stamina ...

[Carl]

Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter

McCoy goes for gold with Dancer

Exotic Dancer is a Cheltenham course specialist Ten-times champion jockey Tony McCoy has opted to partner second favourite Exotic Dancer in the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup on 16 March. McCoy has won the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Letheby and Christopher Chase at the track on the horse this season. But the jockey from Northern Ireland also had the choice of riding French raider L'Ami. McCoy said he picked Exotic Dancer because his form at Cheltenham this season was "virtually unbeatable." :ok That'll do for me. I thought Dobbin was due to ride E.D.