Woodie Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter A lot of people are still saying Detroit City can't win the Champion Hurdle. I just can't see how they can, he can only beat what comes against him, Fair Along, Hardy Eustace, Straw Bear all top class 1 performncers. Now I'm not saying Deetroit City will win at Cheltenham but for the people that are saying he can't win are just crazy. He has all the form in the book to win this. You can keep making exuses for this horse that we won't win but he's beaten Hardy Eustace fair and square along with Straw bear. Ok both small fields but he's beaten them! He's currentl 9/4 I think which is a crazy price considering to me there's more than half a dozen horses that can win this. Afsoun, Brava Inca, Detroit City, Hardy Eustace, Macs Joy, Straw Bear. That's not even considering the likes of Acambo, Jazz Messanger, Asian Maze, Ikitaf, Noble request. Of course the ground will play a hige part in this. The way this stand for me it's all about the Detroit City/Macs Joy forecast Just my rant for now;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MajorWager Posted February 5, 2007 Share Posted February 5, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter My anti-post portfolio so far: Supreme Novices H - Amoretto Rose Arkle Chase - Lennon & Briareus Champion Hurdle - Harchibald & Detroit City Ballymore Hurdle - Aran Concerto Royal & SA Chase - Patsy Hall Queen Mum - Ashley Brook & Nickname Bumper - Enquiring Mind Gold Cup - The Listener Triumph Hurdle - Katchit & Tritonix Come on, don't be shy, lets see some more lists and compare after the festival. It's maybe unnessacary to quote/boast about prices obtained. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MajorWager Posted February 6, 2007 Share Posted February 6, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter When reading it again, the last bit on my previous post sounds a bit strange, so I'll try to explain what I mean as I really don't want to annoy anyone on this very friendly forum. If I stated that I have a ticket for Amoretto Rose @ 20/1 for the Supreme novices, many would doubt its truth and quite rightly. IMO, the only price that should be relevant is the price available on the day of the posting, otherwise it belongs in the same camp as aftertiming, so I've deliberately not quoted any prices. Does anyone agree/disagree? I'll get the popcorn... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 6, 2007 Share Posted February 6, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter When reading it again, the last bit on my previous post sounds a bit strange, so I'll try to explain what I mean as I really don't want to annoy anyone on this very friendly forum. If I stated that I have a ticket for Amoretto Rose @ 20/1 for the Supreme novices, many would doubt its truth and quite rightly. IMO, the only price that should be relevant is the price available on the day of the posting, otherwise it belongs in the same camp as aftertiming, so I've deliberately not quoted any prices. Does anyone agree/disagree? I'll get the popcorn... there is no problem posting prices as they are on the day of the post. You are right that its bad practice to say "i got 20's when its now 7's" but if you have previous post with 20's on it, no probs. Simple? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted February 6, 2007 Share Posted February 6, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter For what it's worth here are my ante post fancies but I'm holding back on putting my money on them as I know some are unlikely to run if the ground isn't right and others have multiple entries. Arkle - My Way De Solzen Ryanair Chase - My Way De Solzen Royal and SunAlliance Chase - My Way De Solzen (any idea which one it's more likely to run in ?) Ballymore Properties Hurdle - Aran Concerto Triumph Hurdle - Degas Art/Katchit Champion Hurdle - Hardy Eustace/Macs Joy Champion Chase - Voy Por Ustedes/Nickname World Hurdle - Asian Maze/Inglis Drever Gold Cup - The Listener/Exotic Dancer Just got a letter from the bank saying from 21st February my overdraft is going to be increased. That could be bad news with Cheltenham around the corner. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted February 6, 2007 Share Posted February 6, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter I've only got one bet so far going on and that's katchit for the triumph. Going to back Acambo for the champion hurdle at 20/1 before the weekend as his price will shorten up after he bolts up on Saturday :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted February 9, 2007 Share Posted February 9, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter I'm considering getting money on The Listener for the Gold Cup before the Hennessy is run tomorrow. I really fancy it to turn over Beef Or Salmon again and then it's odds will tumble if doing so. I left it due to the uncertainty over the ground at Cheltenham but really think it will be the soft side of good at the festival. I've missed the 16-1 and 14-1 available and there must have been decent money for it as it's now 9-1 and 10-1 generally. There was nothing wrong with the Lexus run, proved itself as a genuine top class performer and would no doubt beat War Of Attrition again on soft ground. 10-1 looks like a good price at the moment and could look even better at this time tomorrow. I'll take it EW at that price and just hope the ground stays soft and the horse doesn't get injured tomorrow. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 9, 2007 Share Posted February 9, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter I'll be keeping an eye on tomorrow races closely too Mowgli - lets hope for an encouraging run :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 10, 2007 Share Posted February 10, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Here's the stats I have used for the last 3 years at Cheltenham.....if anyone spots any glaring errors feel free to let me know and i'll amend them :ok THE SUPREME NOVICES: - 29 out of the last 32 races have gone to 5 or 6 year olds. - 2 of the other 3 have gone to Martin Pipes 4 year olds (8lb allowance) - 4 year olds have a poor record though – 1 winner from 22 attempts in the last 14 years - Mares have historically taken advantage of a big weight allowance (8lb’s) and have a recent record of 3 winners from only 9 attempts. - So do 7 year olds – 1 winner from 31 attempts in last 14 years - All but 1 winner since 1996 won on its last start. - All winners were in the 1st 3 last time out. - Horses that weren’t in the top 4 on their penultimate start have badly struggled with no winners in the last 14 years. - Since 2000, all winners had 1-2 runs after the New Year and 3-6 in that season, at least one of which was a win in a hurdles race. - The last 6 winners had RPR ratings of between 125 and 156. - Horses that ran in class 4 or below last time out struggle to perform, with only 1 winner from over 100 attempts in the last 14 years. THE ARKLE - 18 of the last 20 winners were 1st or 2nd on their last completed outing. This trend would go back to 1970 had Borren Prince not swerved off the course when leading in its final prep race in 1985. - 6 year olds usually perform well. Until last year, half of all six year olds to have run in the last 10 years had managed a placing but last year all 4 6yo’s were unplaced – 3 of these were 20/1+ though. - Well Chief was the first 5 year old to win the race since their their allowance was cut from 8lbs to 5lbs- Historically, five year olds need to be special to win this race. Voy Por Ustedes repeated the feat last year. - French breds have a good record. they have won the race 6 times and finished 2nd twice since 1993. A French bred has not been placed on only 2 occasions. CHAMPION HURDLE -6 year olds have nearly a 50% strike rate in this in the last 25 years and filled 3 of the first 5 places 2 seasons ago and 4 of the first 7 in 2006. - 24 9 and 10 year olds have tried in the last decade and apart from the 9 year old Rooster Booster 2 years ago, one 3rd and one 4th place is the best they have managed - 5 year olds are winless from 39 runners in the last 14 years. - 19 of the last 21 winners won their last race – ignore anything that finished outside the top 3 last time out. - Previous experience at Cheltenham is a big advantage 12 of the last 14 winners were course winners. - You need a horse with sufficient hurdling experience. i.e. 10+ runs. The only horses to win with less than 10 starts under their belts were high class on the flat (group winners). WILLIAM HILL TROPHY NATIONAL HUNT HANDICAP CHASE - We need a horse between 7-11 years old. Preferably 10 or younger. Horses aged 11 or older have a record of 1 winner from the last 42 attempts. - Can’t really afford to be out of the handicap, especially when the going is good/firm or faster. Only 2 of the 34 runners trying from out of the handicap have succeeded in 56 years. Haut Cercy went close 3 years ago though. - Need to be carrying less than 11stone 2 lb’s. Only 2 horses out of 30 have succeeded carrying more than this. The last 6 winners have carried less that 10 stone 9lb’s. As a rough guide OR’s should be between 128 and 142. - You need a horse that has been running well – none of the last 6 winners were outside the first 4 in their runs that year. - Ignore Pipe/Nicholls runners here - their record in this race is poor. THE FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE FOR AMATEUR RIDERS - Only 2 of the 88 runners aged older than 9 have won this race in the last 13 years. - Its 37 years since the last 6 year old won, although only 13 5 or 6 yr olds have run in the last 13 years, without success. Mon Mome was 2nd last year. - Only 3 winners in the last 21 years has carried more than 11 stone, after deducting riders allowances. - 9 of the previous 13 winners had been in the first 3 on their previous run. 7 of the last 10 were first or second previously THE PERTEMPS HURDLE FINAL - 36 horses 10 years old or over have managed only one placing between them in the last 14 years and its 20 years since the last such winner. - Similarly, be wary of 5 years olds and under. There have been 32 runners in the last 14 runnings with no winners. - 6 and 7 year olds have taken the race on 16 of the last 23 occasions and filled 28 of the 40 places, so keep them on your side.. - Only 4 of the last 31 runnings went to those carrying less than 10st 8lbs - 8 of the last 13 winners won on their previous outing - 11 of the last 13 winners had taken breaks of more than 30 days - this is a tough race. - Side with a horse that has won in its last 6 races, Kadoun last year was the first to buck this trend in 14 years at a massive 50/1. - 12 of the last 14 had won over 3m+ - Generally avoid horses carryibng more than 11 stone 5lb’s – they have provided the winner only twice in 14 years. THE R&SA NOVICE HURDLE - 5 and 6 year olds have provided the winner of 29 out of the last 32 runnings. - 4 year olds have a record of zero wins from their last 18 runners. Similarly, anything aged 7 or older have only 1 winner from their last 63 runners. - Since 1982, the winner has been in the first two on its previous run. - Anything running below a Class C grade race has historically performed badly, with no winners in the last 14 years. - 18 of the last 21 runners had run at least 4 times over hurdles. Experience is important on this unique course. THE R&SA CHASE - 5 year olds receive a generous weight allowance and have a 1 from 6 record in the last 14 years. The 5 losers have all acquitted themselves well. -Only 2 9 year olds have taken this in the last 42 runnings. Only one has been placed in the last 12 runnings and that was in a small field. - 6 year olds historically struggle and need to be high class to win. - 10 of the last 13 winners have been in the first 5 in the betting. - 29 of the last 32 were 1st or 2nd on their last run. Must have finished in the top 3 last time out and run in a race of more that 2m 4f. This is a gruelling race and the last 35 have been beaten. - 8 of the last 13 winners had breaks less than 38 days. - Ignore Flat Breds - they have a poor record. - French breds have a good record. - The last 6 winners have been no less than 3rd on all their completed chase starts in that season and had won at least once. THE QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE - Ignore older than 10 or younger than 7 years old. Moscow Flyer bucked this trend, but he is a special horse. Otherwise, nothing aged older than 11 had won since 1977 and have been well beaten. - 40 of the last 47 runnings have gone to the first 3 in the market. - Its been 26 years since the winner failed to record a placing on its previous run. - 17 of the last 22 winners all won or placed at the previous festival. Two of the remainder had won good chases at Cheltenham outside the festival. - 14 of the last 17 winners had won over 20f. - All of the last 6 winners had won at least once in that season and hadn’t been out of the first 4 at all. - All of the last 6 had an RPR rating of at least 155 on their last run. THE CORAL CUP - Until last year, 5 year olds were to be avoided- no weight allowance and 55 had tried and failed since 1993. only 1 of these was placed. Last year however, 5 yo’s provided the 1st 2nd 4th and 5th!!! The winner was a well handicapped individual though. Standings are now 62 attempts, 1 winner and 4 placings. - A mare hasn’t won the race in the last 14 years. - You need a horse that has run less than 20 times otherwise overexposure is a problem handicap-wise. Only 1 winner in the last 14 years has raced more than that. - Need to carry less than 11 stone. – Last year was an exception as the majority (26 out of 30) of the field were carrying at least 11 stone. - Martin Pipe has a good record in this race. - Irish are very strong in this race. (5 of the last 13) - 9 of the last 13 winners had no more than 3 prior runs and 3 of the other 4 had 4 runs - had their marks protected. - Hold up horses are favoured - ignore front runners. THE NATIONAL HUNT STEEPLECHASE FOR AMATEUR RIDERS. - First 6 in betting - aged 7 or more - 37 5 & 6 yr olds have tried to win this race in the last 12 years without success. - at least placed last time - only 1 winner from the last 12 years wasn’t in the first 4 last time out. 10 out of the last 12 were in the top 2 last time. - Ignore any horses that weren’t in the top 2 in any of their previous 6 races. No winners in the last 12 years. - Horses that had previously run in a Class C or above race perform much better than those coming from lower grade races. RACING POST PLATE (formerly MILDMAY OF FLETE) - Only 2 winners of the last 14 carried more than 11 stone to victory. - The Pipe stable is generally strong in 20f chases here and has won 4 of the last 9 renewals of this race. - 33 out of the last 42 win/place positions have been placed on its previous outing. - Another angle is to state that only 9 of 44 placed horses in the last 11 years were not placed last time. - 9 of the last 14 winners were in the first 2 on their last start. - Any horse who finished outside the top 6 last time, has not gone on to win in 14 years. - History shows you need a horse with experience so avoid anything with less than about 12 runs under its belt. CHAMPION BUMPER - 5 year olds have won 9 of the last 14 runnings with 4 year olds winning twice. 6 year olds have won the last 2 years, one of which was a defending champion. Irish have a strong record. 11 winners of the last 14. - The last 13 winners have been Irish bred. - Avoid horses who ran in Grade 1 or 2 races previously – all of these have lost. - This is a big field race 12 of the last 13 runners had won in a race of 15 or more. - Avoid maidens – they have never won. THE TRIUMPH HURDLE - A maiden hasn’t won this race in any of the last 14 renewals. - 11 of the last 14 winners have won last time out. - Fillies have won 3 of the last 4 renewals and have had 5 of the placings from only 12 runners to start 12/1 or less. - Avoid horses that were well beaten last time out – anything beaten more than 8 lengths on their last start has not won in the last 14 years. As at 2007, this accounted for 112 attempts! - As at 2007, there had only been two NH bred winners of this race in the last 12 years. THE STAYERS HURDLE - 46 horses aged 9 or older have tried in this and only 2 have won - they were winning for the second time. - 5 yr olds have provided no winners from 17 attempts. - A light campaign is best – avoid anything with more than 5 runs that season. No recent winners have run this much. - Pipes fancied runners ( - you need a horse in good heart, therefore avoid anything that has been beaten more than 12 lengths last time out. 82 horses in the last 14 years have tried following such an effort and all have failed. - All winners since 1987 finished in the first 4 on their previous outing. - Don’t back anything with more than 20 career runs as they are too exposed. Horses of this nature have provided none of the last 14 winners. THE GOLD CUP - 8 or 9 years old is a bonus. Avoid anything over 11 years old, zero winners from the last 30 runners from this age group. - The last 14 winners were in the top 3 last time out. - should have won over a minimum of 25f - previous course form is important - over a month since last outing - Novices have a poor record in this tough race and should be avoided. THE FOXHUNTERS CHASE - 11 of the last 12 winners had been in the first 3 on their last run. The exception was last years winner Whyso Mayo, who unseated when still well placed. - Horses older than 10 have a weak record. Before Earthmover won in 2004, there had been 1 winner over 10 years old since 1996. - 6 of the last 13 winners had previously won at Cheltenham, 2 others had previously performed well. - 16 of the last 18 winners had won on their previous outing. Whyso mayo was one of the exceptions. - Only one winner in recent times had not jumped over fences previously. THE GRAND ANNUAL - 13 of the last 21 winners carried more than 10st 8lbs. - 5 of the last 7 carried less than 10 stone 1lb. - 10 of the last 15 winners were in the first 5 in the betting - 28 of the last 32 winners were no bigger than 10/1 - 15 of the last 18 winners had finished in the first 4 on their previous run. One of the 3 exceptions to this trend, St Pirran, fell on his previous outing but before that was 3rd. - 10 out of the last 13 winners had run within 28 days. - Avoid horses aged 10 or over. They have had only 4 winners since the 1940’s THE VINCENT OBRIEN COUNTY HURDLE - 5 and 6 year olds have won 36 of the last 45 runnings. Avoid 8 year olds or older – only 2 winners, one of which was the high class Rooster Booster. - Need to carry less than 11 stone. Has only been 3 winners carrying more than this in 31 years - all were exceptional animals. Rooster Booster in 2002, and the other 2 were imperial cup winners from 5 days previously. - Until 2005, 167 horses have failed to win whilst running from out of the handicap since 1980. That year was an exception with 1/3 of the field running from outside the handicap due to the presence of a couple of very high class horses. This isn’t usual and normal service was resumed in 2006 but beware of this happening again for this years field. - Since 1987 only 2 winners have been out of the first 4 on the previous run. 12 winners since then have been in the first 2 on the previous run. - Winners tend to have run more than 6 times that year. Ideally you want something that’s run 3-8 times – horses outside this range haven’t won in 13 years. - 5 out of the last 8 winners had been placed at Cheltenham earlier in the season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 10, 2007 Share Posted February 10, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter cheers AK, excellent work. I will post my Gold Cup thoughts, i was waiting for Kauto Star to run today & now it has, I can list the reasons why i cant back it at Cheltenham. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 10, 2007 Share Posted February 10, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Me neither. There was a collective "Ooooooooh!" in my living room when he ploughed through that last fence :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 10, 2007 Share Posted February 10, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter THE REASONS WHY KAUTO STAR IS OPPOSABLE IN THE GOLD CUP ok, been doing some research based on Gold cups since 1996 with some startling results. The last 9 winners of the Gold Cup had ran at the festival with 8 out of 9 finishing 1st or 2nd at a previous festival. See More business was the exception when carried out of the gold Cup by a pipe horse in 98. 5 of those 8 had a previous win at the track. 10 out of 10 had ran between 2 & 5 times that season & 9 out of 10 2-4 times. No horse in those 10 years had come with a 100% record in that season. No horse has won the Aon Chase & then the Gold cup in 8 attempts. 8 out of 10 winners had ran LTO in dec or Jan with the last 5 running in Dec as their prep race. In total, there have been 80 horses that have ran LTO in feb & then contested the race in the last 10 years & 2 have won. in contrast from only 16 runners that have ran LTO in Dec has heralded a whopping 6 winners!! Horses in Jan LTO is 2 winners from 30, therefore Dec & Jan have accounted for 8 out of the last 10 winners from an entry of 46. 7 of the last 10 winners had their prep race at either Leops or Kempton with 6 of those coming from the King George or the Lexus chase. 7 of the last 10 winners contested a Gr1 chase LTO. That was Kauto Star's 5th race this season which has resulted in a 100% record. All wins have been at flat tracks. The horse has only ran once at Cheltenham & fell last festival. The Aon Chase is only a Gr 2 chase & although KS is a Gr1 performer, i think Nicholls has made an error in running the horse so close to the festival. I havent got down to the winner yet but War of Attrition & Exotic Dancer are looking good on the trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted February 10, 2007 Share Posted February 10, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter After watching Kauto Stars race today it's made me get more excited about the Gold Cup cause it no linger looks like a one horse race. If he make the same mistakes Kauto Star has made at Kempton and today then he will be punished. Then one thing I was impressed by today was when they got in a battle after the last and Kauto found something. But still his juming let him down. That's two big mistakes he has made now in his last two runs. At the prices I couldn't back him for me at the moment it's still all about Exotic Dancer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted February 11, 2007 Share Posted February 11, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter I was out all yesterday afternoon playing Snooker so only got to see yesterdays racing at about 1am. Really impressed with Beef Or Salmon, the way it battled was brilliant. Typical that I did take The Listener at 10's for the Gold Cup before the race and it's now 12's and 14's. Saying that, if I had 50 quid to place on The Listener or Beef Or Salmon I would put it on The Listener. I thought it went off too fast at the beginning of the race and didn't like the way the jockey was looking round at the end of the race. As they said on Ch4 was the jockey being cocky (poet and I know it) or worried that there wasn't much in the tank? A tough slog of a race like that will have taken a lot out of Beef/Listener and as Bowles points out they may not recover by Cheltenham, better to have run Dec/Jan. As for Kauto Star, a lot has been said about it's jumping but until the error it was foot perfect and Ruby stated that it schools well at home. It seemed to be the timing of the jump that made the problem and if it wasn't for that error it would have sailed clear of L'Ami. It seems to be a concentration problem and any error like that at Cheltenham will see it on it's arse. As pointed out it likes flat tracks and can't be backed for Cheltenham at ridiculous odds, even after it has drifted. The stats say it won't win, the punters say it won't win and if it does it'll be one fine performance. I'm liking the look of War Of Attrition, proven over the course and lightly raced so far on unsuitable ground but will wait till nearer the race to get money on it. Cheltenham is a real test of jumping and I'm not sure Kauto is up to that test. I can't believe I cursed Voy Por Ustedes, mentioned it's faultless jumping and how it never runs a bad race and then fell at the 3rd. It'll come back stronger and still has a great chance at Cheltenham but I was very impressed with Well Chief, it could have gone round again, Murphy didn't touch it and that will be a cracking race. Also impressed with Aran Concerto, I know Russ has a keen eye on that one and if it goes for the race he's backed it in he's looking at an almost guaranteed return. Found it hard to get into this jumps season but can't wait for Cheltenham now. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 11, 2007 Share Posted February 11, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter I thought Lord of Illusion made a promising reappearance over hurdles yesterday and will keep an eye on him for any Festival entries. One of the long distance races could be right up his street judged on the way he was making late progress yesterday only to run out of steam in the last couple of furlongs - understandable as it was his first race in nearly a year. Ive taken 150.0 for the Grand National, as that is his ultimate target and was running a good race last year before breaking a blood vessell. Should get a decent racing weight in that too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 11, 2007 Share Posted February 11, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Just checked the RP website and there's no Cheltenham entry at the moment. He is in another hurdle race at Fakenham next week, which, if missing the Festival, suggests to me his handicap mark is being preserved for the National. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted February 11, 2007 Share Posted February 11, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter I thought Lord of Illusion made a promising reappearance over hurdles yesterday and will keep an eye on him for any Festival entries. One of the long distance races could be right up his street judged on the way he was making late progress yesterday only to run out of steam in the last couple of furlongs - understandable as it was his first race in nearly a year. Ive taken 150.0 for the Grand National, as that is his ultimate target and was running a good race last year before breaking a blood vessell. Should get a decent racing weight in that too. Interesting that you noticed that AK. I fancied it yesterday but thought after seeing the race that it definitely needed the run. I backed it last year early on for the Grand National, the trainer thinks well of the horse, it usually jumps well and will benefit from that run. That's a cracking price :eek , might have a little bet on that too. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billboard Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter I've not seen a Gold Cup divided by opinion for years. Sunday lunchtime in the pub in deepest darkest Kent opinion was divided. I personaly am going to oppose Kauto Star and have said that since the start of the season. My father did however make a valid point. KS has a very fast cruising speed and how fast the horse can go is unknown as it hasn't been pushed by one of the best. he also said 99% of horses are on their arse if hitting a fence like KS did but it didn't seem to phase him as he's so powerfull. It's Exotic Dancer 1st, War of Attrician 2nd for me....backing them both with singles but am going to do a forecast. where Kauto Star comes I don't know but I'm not as confident as I was when laying him two weeks ago. another thing....what's the opinion of Well Chief going to favourite in the champion chase? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berniek Posted February 18, 2007 Share Posted February 18, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Just gone in on Glasker Mill @25/1 for sun alliance at Chelt Obviously i hope that it shows it well being at fontwell today and the price contracts. I think it has the making of a top class chaser, although for the chelt race i'm obviously afraid of Denman, but you should never be scared of one horse.:hope If the price does contract it may well give me an opportunity to lay some of it off,if come March i'm really scared of Denman - or anything else that shows it merits Good luck all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leics poshie Posted February 19, 2007 Share Posted February 19, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Can someone please tell me what date non runner no bet is available? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berniek Posted February 19, 2007 Share Posted February 19, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Just gone in on Glasker Mill @25/1 for sun alliance at Chelt Obviously i hope that it shows it well being at fontwell today and the price contracts. I think it has the making of a top class chaser, although for the chelt race i'm obviously afraid of Denman, but you should never be scared of one horse.:hope If the price does contract it may well give me an opportunity to lay some of it off,if come March i'm really scared of Denman - or anything else that shows it merits Good luck all Doh !! now available at 50's :wall for sun alliance and trainer has said she wouldnt now want to send it straight to Chelt after a fall. NMight run at Exeter next Sunday I think. Winner looked good, but I do think Glasker Mill was going well and until the fall had jumped well. Not giving up on him just yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leics poshie Posted February 19, 2007 Share Posted February 19, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Doh !! now available at 50's :wall for sun alliance and trainer has said she wouldnt now want to send it straight to Chelt after a fall. NMight run at Exeter next Sunday I think. Winner looked good, but I do think Glasker Mill was going well and until the fall had jumped well. Not giving up on him just yet I am on Turko before that performance @ 16/1 has now been trimmed into 12's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MajorWager Posted February 19, 2007 Share Posted February 19, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Noel Meade is in the racing press today suggesting the the ground for Cheltenham will not suit Harchibald. This will be the 3rd big trainer at least that has publically declared that the ground will be SOFT for the festival. Even David Pipe on the C4 morning Line prog suggested the same. So why 3 weeks before does this seem almost pre-ordained? Either a) The Clerk of the course has informed all stables that it will be watered to soft side of good conditions at least, mainly due to the numerous unfortunate fatalities last year. Or b) they are looking at long range weather forecasts, and then believing them! Maybe we should all lump on Nickname, The Listener, and all the soft specialists now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheltenham punter Posted February 19, 2007 Share Posted February 19, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter my turn now 33/1 for the supreme novices hurdle . i would back that e/w as i feel amaretto rose will be hard to beat. any tips for the ryanair chase? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheltenham punter Posted February 19, 2007 Share Posted February 19, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter dempsey has got a big chance in my opinion for the queen mother chase , kauto star shouldn't be touched at 6/4 and i feel dempsey at around 20s is a value bet. im thinking of lumping on detroit city - any views on this before i do? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berniek Posted February 19, 2007 Share Posted February 19, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter I am on Turko before that performance @ 16/1 has now been trimmed into 12's Before yesterdays race Turko was readily available in a number of places at 25's definately and bigger I think. According to oddschecker you can still get 25's at Coral. If you fancied it at 16's I'm sure you might want to go back in at 25's?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kentref Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter AMAERETTO ROSE supreme novices. i cant see behond this horse for the race just a few form pointers. amaeretto rose has beaten hobbs hill by 17l won since by 13l oceanos de obeaux by 23l won since by 8l astarador 18l won previous 2 momayer was beat by 28 l lost by short head sat leslingtaylor beat by 82 l won previous two add to this 3 or 4 trends listed previously match up nicely i think this is my bet of week and at 4s(coral still good odds) any thoughts people greatfully accepted especially if people now something i may have missed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmetic Bob Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter SportHorse Racing EventCheltenham Festival - Foxhunters Chase SelectionBica (Each-Way) Strength5/10 Date16/03/2007 Bookmaker/PriceCoral @ 10.00 (Back) ReasoningLooks a very good recruit to hunter chasing, winning both starts this season on the bridle in a canter without being asked a question yet by talented jockey Sam Waley-Cohen. Probably the most impressive hunter we've seen this season. I reckon he will start shorter than 9/1 on race day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter AMAERETTO ROSE supreme novices. i cant see behond this horse for the race just a few form pointers. amaeretto rose has beaten hobbs hill by 17l won since by 13l oceanos de obeaux by 23l won since by 8l astarador 18l won previous 2 momayer was beat by 28 l lost by short head sat leslingtaylor beat by 82 l won previous two add to this 3 or 4 trends listed previously match up nicely i think this is my bet of week and at 4s(coral still good odds) any thoughts people greatfully accepted especially if people now something i may have missed. Kentref, agree with you with the form, 2 outstanding runs but Cheltenham is a different track which may not suit the horse, that & the faster ground are the only 2 negatives i can find. Kicks for free is an interesting horse & Nicholls has tucked that one away & has had 2 runs at the track once this season & in the bumper last year. Aran Concerto has done nothing wrong to date & must be considered also. My ante post bet Roll Along may run well but not sure if it needs farther. 2 others are Moon over miami & Tagula bay. Between these 6, the winner is in there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Countdown to Cheltenham - Bets & Banter Normally at Cheltenham, I have strong fancies in the 4 main races but this year, I'm not confident on anything. Looks like I'll just be following Bowles' tips this year. Gold Cup - if it jumps round, it wouldn't surprise me to see KS win well but jumping....now that's a big IF. Ch Hurdle - Detroit City has done nothing wrong to date but, in my eyes, has never looked a world beater so :unsure QM - It was going to be VPU until falling lto, and seeing Well Chief piss it, but worried about the bounce factor for WC World Hurdle - BJK is another that looked unbeatable until a very poor run lto. Is it Inglis Drever's year? Really think we could see some decent priced animals in the frame this year:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.