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JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

jtw1

By jtw1
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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jtw1

jtw1

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends GOOD MORNING :ok NEWMARKET 4.55 7F FILLIES MAIDEN 9 out of 9 won by a Newmarket trainer. 9 out of 10 had either 1 or 2 runs as a 2y-old , other was FTO. 8 out of 10 were in the top 3 in the betting [only 2 clear FAV] 8 out of those 9 ran last between AUG-NOV. 7 out of those 9 had ran at NMKT / LEIC MAIDEN. On ground that was classed as GOOD or GD/FRM , the winner came from the TOP half of the draw. 7 out of 9 ran over 7f LTO. None had ran on the AW. Quite a lot to go on here and i considered the top 6 in the RP betting F/Cast. The first 2 in the betting have not ran since JUNE. 3rd FAV has no racecourse experience. 4th FAV has ran on the AW. 6th FAV - FTO + Low draw. That leaves us with the 5th FAV - Sir Michael Stoute trained ARABIAN TREASURE - Had 1 run , at NEWMARKET,in SEP , Placed 4th , Not ran on AW , Drawn 8 , one drawback is it last ran over 6f [ 2 other winners have that stat however] STOUTE has had 2 - 3yold only , Maiden winners . RIPON 4.30 1M MAIDEN 10 out of 10 had between 1-3 previous races. 9 out of 10 won by COLT/GELDING. 8 out of 10 were placed 2nd -4th LTO on the Flat [not AW] 3 of those that had ran this season had been placed 2nd,3rd + 5th. 9 out of 10 Divisions won by top 3 in the betting. 9 out of 10 had ran over 7f or 1m LTO. Winning Trainers = 4 NMKT , 3 J DUNLOP , 2 M JOHNSTON , 1 other. 2nd FAV - DARK ENERGY - Not trained by one of recognised Trend trainers. 3rd FAV - EMERALD WILDERNESS - ran 8 times already. So that leaves us with the probable FAV - COLORALDO RAPID - Trained by M JOHNSTON and fits all other trends. One worry is his LOW draw , lets hope he can overcome it :hope

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jtw1

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends NEWBURY 4.55 1M3F 3Y-old Maiden

2006 Hala Bek (9) 3 9-3 6/5F M A Jarvis Philip Robinson 97
2005 Gold Gun (2) 3 9-0 16/1 M A Jarvis Philip Robinson 93
2004 Graham Island (4) 3 9-0 5/4F G Wragg Darryll Holland 83
2003 Westmoreland Road (5) 3 9-0 10/1 Mrs A J Perrett T Quinn 91
2002 Gamut (1) 3 9-0 10/11F Sir Michael Stoute K Fallon 96
2001 Shaandar (3) 3 9-0 11/2 J L Dunlop Richard Hughes 99
2000 Millenary (3) 3 9-0 4/1 J L Dunlop Pat Eddery 85
1999 Salford Express (6) 3 9-0 7/2 D R C Elsworth T Quinn 92
1997 Ghataas (7) 3 9-0 7/2F J L Dunlop R Hills 96
8 out of 9 in the top 3 in the betting. 8 out of 9 ran 1 or 2 races as a 2y-old. 6 of those were placed between 2nd - 5th in either of their previous races ; 3 finished 2nd. 9 out of 9 ran no later than SEP. 8 out of 9 ran at 7f or 1m LTO. J DUNLOP has trained 3 winners , none since 2001. M JARVIS has trained the last 2 , last one was a debutant , as is his entry tomorrow. Despite those 2 trainer stats , i'm hoping that the DUNLOP name will still be on the winner - ED DUNLOPS , WESTERN ADVENTURE. It will probably start FAV , ran 2nd in his only 2y-old race back in SEP in a 7F race. It just gets the nod from H CECIL'S TEMPLESTERN . 39 bets 21 winners 8 placed PROFIT = 238.82 PTS Yield = 61.2%
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kevsul

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

NEWBURY 4.55 1M3F 3Y-old Maiden
2006 Hala Bek (9) 39-36/5FM A JarvisPhilip Robinson97
2005 Gold Gun (2) 39-016/1M A JarvisPhilip Robinson93
2004 Graham Island (4) 39-05/4FG WraggDarryll Holland83
2003 Westmoreland Road (5) 39-010/1Mrs A J PerrettT Quinn91
2002 Gamut (1) 39-010/11FSir Michael StouteK Fallon96
2001 Shaandar (3) 39-011/2J L DunlopRichard Hughes99
2000 Millenary (3) 39-04/1J L DunlopPat Eddery85
1999 Salford Express (6) 39-07/2D R C ElsworthT Quinn92
1997 Ghataas (7) 39-07/2FJ L DunlopR Hills96
8 out of 9 in the top 3 in the betting. 8 out of 9 ran 1 or 2 races as a 2y-old. 6 of those were placed between 2nd - 5th in either of their previous races ; 3 finished 2nd. 9 out of 9 ran no later than SEP. 8 out of 9 ran at 7f or 1m LTO. J DUNLOP has trained 3 winners , none since 2001. M JARVIS has trained the last 2 , last one was a debutant , as is his entry tomorrow. Despite those 2 trainer stats , i'm hoping that the DUNLOP name will still be on the winner - ED DUNLOPS , WESTERN ADVENTURE. It will probably start FAV , ran 2nd in his only 2y-old race back in SEP in a 7F race. It just gets the nod from H CECIL'S TEMPLESTERN . 39 bets 21 winners 8 placed PROFIT = 238.82 PTS Yield = 61.2%
Another winner :clap
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jtw1

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends BANGOR - 3.20 - 2M 1F NOV CHASE 8 out of 9 were in the top 3 in the betting [5 CLEAR + 1 JT FAV ] 8 out of 9 had ran between 4-9 times that season. 8 out of 9 were placed either 1st or 2nd in at least one of their last 2 outings. 7 out of 9 had won a chase. 8 out of 9 had won a hurdle race 7 out of 9 had last ran between 12 - 27 days. 7 out of 9 were aged 5-7 y-old. Only 5 runners in this and i'm going for PRIMUS INTER PAREES . POSITIVES = 6Y-OLD, RAN 8 TIMES , WON A MAIDEN CHASE TIME BEFORE LAST , LAST RAN 20 DAYS AGO . NEGATIVES - NOT WON A HURDLE. The FAV ORIGINAL FLY last ran 49 days ago and has been running over further distances .

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jtw1

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends WINCANTON 2.50 2M NOV HURDLE 8 out of 9 winners were in the top 3 in the betting. 8 out of 9 were 5-7 y-olds. All had ran between 2-6 races that NH season. 8 out of 9 had ran at least twice that YEAR. The last 7 winners had last ran between 5-30 previously. P NOCHOLS record - F , 1st , 3rd , 1st , UR [10 L clear at 2nd last and looked certain winner] The betting indictes that this should be a match between PRINCE ARI from the PIPE stable [ 1 unp runner in 7 season's] and the SELECTION ARTADI from the NICHOLS yard. Unfortunatly looks like being another short-priced FAV , but i reckon it's a 2 horse race so lets hope for the best.

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jtw1

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends I'm flattered KANGA :$ maybe it's just luck or whatever but it seems to be working so far :hope MONDAY -------- 6.55 WINDSOR 1M 3Y-OLD FILLIES MAIDEN STKS 9 out of 10 were either FAV or 2nd FAV [ other was 3rd FAV ] 9 out of 10 ran as a 2y-old. 8 of those last ran in SEP/OCT. 9 of those were placed no worse than 7th. 8 of those ran 7f or 1m LTO. Out of 6 races run on GD or GD/FM , all were drawn in the top half of the stalls. Looking at the first 3 in the RP F/CAST , we have 2 debutants in jt 2nd FAV spot , so the selection is the FAV and STOUTE trained , GYROSCOPE. 1 run as a 2y-old in 7f race in OCT, finished 3rd and drawn 10. 7.25 WINDSOR 1M2F 3Y-OLD MAIDEN 7 out of 8 FAVS have won :eek [ the other was 2nd behind the 2nd FAV] 7 out of 8 winners were Colts. ALL 8 ran as 2y-olds. 3 had ran this season and were placed 2nd,2nd 4th. ALL were placed between 2nd - 4th LTO ALL those who had ran as a 2y-old had done so over either 7f or 1m. Sir M STOUTE has had 4 winners from 8 runnings. The FAVS have such a strong record in this Maiden it was tempting just to post that fact alone , however the other trends also point to Sir M STOUTE'S probable FAV - MYSTIC DANCER ,a colt that has had 2 runs as a 2y-old , 2nd LTO over 7f . Dettori rode a couple of winners for Stoute last week and the trainer is certainly the stable to follow . If the 2nd FAV , GOLD PROSPECT, had ran as a 2y-old , the choice would have been harder to make. Pretty obvious choices , i admit , but hopefully winners.

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Kanga

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Not luck JT - hard work & discipline are the only ways to make this game pay - I know of professionals who do exactly as you are doing - the only problem is knowing if the odds you are getting are "value" - but the selections & process are superb :ok . In addition there is a profitable system simply backing "Stoute's first run of the year" - both the above qualify :hope

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kevsul

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

I'm flattered KANGA :$ maybe it's just luck or whatever but it seems to be working so far :hope MONDAY -------- 6.55 WINDSOR 1M 3Y-OLD FILLIES MAIDEN STKS 9 out of 10 were either FAV or 2nd FAV [ other was 3rd FAV ] 9 out of 10 ran as a 2y-old. 8 of those last ran in SEP/OCT. 9 of those were placed no worse than 7th. 8 of those ran 7f or 1m LTO. Out of 6 races run on GD or GD/FM , all were drawn in the top half of the stalls. Looking at the first 3 in the RP F/CAST , we have 2 debutants in jt 2nd FAV spot , so the selection is the FAV and STOUTE trained , GYROSCOPE.:clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap 1 run as a 2y-old in 7f race in OCT, finished 3rd and drawn 10. :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap 7.25 WINDSOR 1M2F 3Y-OLD MAIDEN 7 out of 8 FAVS have won :eek [ the other was 2nd behind the 2nd FAV] 7 out of 8 winners were Colts. ALL 8 ran as 2y-olds. 3 had ran this season and were placed 2nd,2nd 4th. ALL were placed between 2nd - 4th LTO ALL those who had ran as a 2y-old had done so over either 7f or 1m. Sir M STOUTE has had 4 winners from 8 runnings. The FAVS have such a strong record in this Maiden it was tempting just to post that fact alone , however the other trends also point to Sir M STOUTE'S probable FAV - MYSTIC DANCER ,a colt that has had 2 runs as a 2y-old , 2nd LTO over 7f . Dettori rode a couple of winners for Stoute last week and the trainer is certainly the stable to follow . If the 2nd FAV , GOLD PROSPECT, had ran as a 2y-old , the choice would have been harder to make. Pretty obvious choices , i admit , but hopefully winners.
First one in.:ok
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jtw1

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers KEVSUL GYROSCOPE 1ST @ 5/6 FAV :loon MYSTIC DANCER UNP @ 11/4 Thankfully TRULY ENCHANTING ran very green and GYROSCOPE got home in front , the 2nd should do better next time. MYSTIC DANCER - Ran a bit too freely imo , when i seen the odds i thought the worst , i expected 6/4 or under . BETS - 44 WINNERS - 24 PLACED - 8 PROFIT - 243.51 PTS YIELD - 55.34% TUESDAY ---------- PUNCHESTOWN 2.50 2M GRADE 1 NOV HURDLE 10 out of 10 aged 5 or 6 y-old 8 out of 10 were 1st or 2nd FAV [6 clear favs] 10 out of 10 winners had ran between 3-5 races that season. All had won that season , 9 of those more than once. 9 out of 10 had won or been placed 2nd in a GRADE 1 or 2 race. 6 out of 10 had ran at CHELTENHAM in the SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE Taking the first 3 in the RP F/cast , we can discount DE VALIRA as this will be his 7th run this season. That leaves the possible FAV - CLOPF [ ran on the flat LTO ! ] and the selection , EBAZIYAN who fits all the trends , including winning the SUPREME NOV at CHELT. PUNCHESTOWN 4.05 GRADE 1 CHASE 8 out of 8 were in the top 3 in the betting [ only 2 clear FAVS] 7 out of 8 were aged 8 or 9 y-old. [ 5 x 9y-old , 2 x 8 y-old] 6 out of 8 had ran between 3-6 times that season. 7 out of 8 had won at least once , 6 won 2+ races. 6 out of 8 had ran at CHELTENHAM. 7 out of 8 had won at least once in their previous 3 races. Probable 3rd FAV , RIVER CITY is a 10y-old and has not won this season so that takes care of him. So , at JT FAV in RP , we have NICKNAME [ran 7 times already and an 8y-old] and the selection , NEWMILL who ran LTO at CHELT , won his race before that , has had 4 outings and is a 9 Y-OLD.

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jtw1

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends EPSOM 2.20 1M2F STAKES 10 out of 10 won by colts 9 out of 10 either 1st or 2nd FAV. [6 clear FAVS] ALL ran ,and won at least 1 race, as a 2y-old. 8 out of 10 were placed 1st - 3rd LTO. 10 out of 10 ran over at least 7f LTO. 3 had a previous run this season and were placed 1,1,3. Should be a 2 horse race between DUBAI TWILIGHT [probable fav] and the selection , RAINCOAT. DUBAI TWILIGHT did not win as a 2y-old and his outing this year was on the AW [ only 1 prev winner had ran on AW before this race] Therefore RAINCOAT ,1 run 1 win LTO as a 2y-old over 7f , gets the nod.

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