Aykay1 Posted June 10, 2006 Author Share Posted June 10, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap 220 Goodwood - Fantasy Believer 5pts ew @ 9/1 BetFred (NAP) Is now running off a mark 4 lb's lower than his last win, even after a promising run last time whcih hinted he was coming into some kind of form. That would be typical of the horses career as he tends to peak in the summer. He likes the course as he has never been out of the frame whilst running here and is drawn well. Its a competitive sprint but everything seems to be in his favour so fingers crossed for a big run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted June 10, 2006 Author Share Posted June 10, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap Bluebok 1st @ 14/1 :nana Fantasy Believer - Unplaced Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 10, 2006 Share Posted June 10, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap Bluebok 1st @ 14/1 :nana Fantasy Believer - Unplaced :clap AK I tipped it up also but, like you, took the 9/1:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted June 16, 2006 Author Share Posted June 16, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap 445 York Topatoo - 5pts ew @ SP (NAP) Ultra consistent without winning but looks capable of winning off current mark. 4th from an average draw last time out and looks better berthed today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 16, 2006 Share Posted June 16, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap another one AK, well done mate:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap just a list today im afraid. 5 pts ew on: LINGFIELD 20.05 HERNANDO ROYAL - 10 pts win YORK 15.10 SUNRISE SAFARI YORK 17.25 REGAL RAIDER BATH 17.00 BLUEBOK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted June 20, 2006 Author Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap 455 Ascot Escayola 5pts ew @ 12/1 Ladbrokes This one appeared to have a good, yet gentle reintroduction last time out and will love the step up to 2miles where he has done most of his winning. He is also a course winner and a few lacklustre runs towards the end of last season were down to the softer ground - the ground is fine for him today. Basically he has everyhting going for him. 310 Ascot: Tax Free - 5 pts ew @ 12/1 Caught the eye 2 runs ago when winning his half of the race very easily indeed. This is a big step up in class but the winner of the aforementioned race is a much shorter price, without performing too much better than the selection and hence, Tax Free looks the value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted June 25, 2006 Author Share Posted June 25, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap No joy with those 2 im afraid, both unplaced - a couple more today... 440 Pontefract- Grave Matters - 5 pts ew @ 12/1 Stan James (NAP) He ran very green on his debut and seemingly didnt like the undulating epsom track. as a result, he was tailed off last at one point but once he met the flat rising ground at the end he was noted asthen was noted as flying and finished with a real gusto. Improvement looks certain today with some experience behind him and the RP points out that Johnston stable is in better form this time around. 510 Pontefract - Mr Cellophane 5 pts ew @ 5/1 Stan James A few of us on here have been following this one who is a model of consistency, without winning. He has done nothing wrong and still looks on a decent mark. No reason why he shouldnt be winning soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted June 27, 2006 Author Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap Both Placed :) i'll get some figures sorted today.. One for today is: 830 Newb - Solva. 10 pts win @ 3/1 Paddypower Looked an improved horse over 10f and won on her 1st try at that trip. Subsequently she was beaten by what looks like a well handicapped winner REUNITE, who has finished 5th at Ascot, in close proximity to horses rated in the late 90's. That form looks good for SOLVA's chances today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted June 27, 2006 Author Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap Updated figures.. sorry for being slack and taking so long. They are looking healthier than the last update but im still showing a loss. If Solva can win in 5 mins time, it will push me closer to the break even point.... Figures from 6/6/06: Bets: 58 Wins: 14 Strike Rate: 24% P/L: -145.47 pts Breaking Shadow 5pts ew UNPLACED -10 Dazzling Bay 5 pts ew - UNPLACED -10 Phantom Whisper 5 pts ew - 1st @ 14/1 +87.5 Obrigado 5pts ew - 3rd @ 5/1 +1.25 Bluebok 5pts ew - 1st @ 9/1 +56.25 Fantasy Believer 5pts ew - UNPLACED -10 Topatoo 5pts ew - 1st @ 11/2 +34.38 Hernando Royal 10 pts win - LOST -10 Sunrise Safari 5pts ew - UNPLACED -10 Regal Raider 5pts ew - UNPLACED -10 Bluebok 5pts ew - UNPLACED -10 Escayola 5pts ew - UNPLACED -10 Tax Free 5 pts ew - UNPLACED -10 Grave Matters 5 pts ew - 2nd @ 12/1 +10 Mr Cellophane 5 pts ew - 3rd @ 5/1 +1.25 Bets: 73 Wins: 20 Strike Rate: 27% P/L: -44.84 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 27, 2006 Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap 100 points profit from 15 bets is good going mate! :ok Hope it continues for you :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted June 27, 2006 Author Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap If Solva can win in 5 mins time, it will push me closer to the break even point.... Hope it continues for you :hope ....and SOLVA wins the 8.30 :nana Bets: 74 Wins: 21 Strike Rate: 28% P/L: -14.84 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 27, 2006 Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap ....and SOLVA wins the 8.30 :nana Bets: 74 Wins: 21 Strike Rate: 28% P/L: -14.84 pts AK, Are you sure? RP website says Kahlua Kiss beat Solva in a photo. Hope RP is wrong though. Fingers crossed for you.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted June 27, 2006 Author Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap errr **** it you are right - how embarrasing! :lol As the footies on i only "watched" it on the betfair in running odds service and Solva finished up at odds of 1.01 so naturally i assumed it won! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted June 27, 2006 Author Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap Here it is ladies and gents.... :drums THE POST OF SHAME.... Bets: 74 Wins: 20 Strike Rate: 27% P/L: -54.84 pts :$ :$ :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 27, 2006 Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap Sorry mate:cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted June 27, 2006 Author Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap No worries, the last few posts are quite funny :lol At least im not one of the mugs who took 1.02 in running :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 1, 2006 Author Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap 355 Newcastle - Breaking Shadow - 5 pts ew @ 20/1 bet365 I noted this one back in May after a couple of unlucky runs. His last 2 runs suggest he is out of form, however a closer look reveals he was unfavourably drawn on both occasions. For example, at Ripon, he finished 8th of 12 when drawn 12. The last 5 home were drawn 12,11,9,7,8. Or looking at it another way, the first 5 home were drawn 4,1,3,5,2. The draw bias at Chester is well documented and he couldnt make an impression from stall 10 of 12. Im taking a gamble that the draw played a part in both below par performances but he has consequently dropped a couple of pounds and at 20/1 im happy to take that gamble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 1, 2006 Author Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap 310 Windsor - Swinbrook 5 pts ew @ 11/1 totesport Similar profile to Breaking Shadow in that I was following Swinbrook a couple of runs ago but his form has seemingly slumped since. He is another I can make excuses for. An inadequate 5f trip and a poor draw/slow start at Epsom can help explain those performances. When he won at Leicester, I fancied him to follow up from his new mark and I still do. Everytihng looks favourable for him today so expect a big run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 1, 2006 Author Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap 225 Newmarket - Satulagi 5pts ew @ 6/1 Bet365 Ran a blinder at Royal Ascot after being noted by her trainer as the juvenile to follow most closely from his yard. A couple of unexposed opponenets look worrying but i expect her to run well and go close nonetheless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 1, 2006 Author Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap 915 Wolves - Fasylitator - 5pts ew @ 11/2 Paddypower Ultra consistent horse, which is reflected in his strike rate on the All Weather. His current mark looks fair and has run 2 solid races from it. His recent form on turf is encouraging, a shame he couldnt take advantage of his lower turf rating but he is in form nonetheless. He deserves a win soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 3, 2006 Author Share Posted July 3, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap SportHorse Racing Event755 Musselburgh SelectionFinal tune (Each-Way) Strength10/10 Date03/07/2006 Bookmaker/PriceStan James @ 5.00 (Back) ReasoningHas been running well and looks better than his bare form suggests. He has been competing with horses rated closer to the 80’s than the 60’s which is the quality of opponenent he faces today. I think he’s well handicapped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 3, 2006 Author Share Posted July 3, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap for the purposes of this thread, the stake on Final Tune is 5pts ew :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 8, 2006 Author Share Posted July 8, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap 330 Haydock - Red Lancer: 5pts ew @ 6/1 Paddypower (NAP) Showed signs of a return to form last time out and is now on an attractive mark, able to run off a mark 4lb's lower than when runner up in this race last year. 510 Haydock - Soba Jones 5pts ew @ 14/1 Ladbrokes Is in good form and looks fairly treated, despite a small rise in the weights since his last win. He had excuses when 3rd last time out and drops 1lb from that effort. He has an apprentice on board, who I am following at the moment: Take a look at the stats for 34 year Jason Edmunds. On the turf Edmunds is a run of the mill jockey with an under achieving strike rate of just 3.5%. But on the all weather Edmunds is a far better jockey. Edmunds 'lost his claim' back in 1996 but has had many profitable years on the all weather since then. Up until 31st August 2005 Edmunds won 41 races from 452 rides on the sand. This is a strike rate of 9.1%. Backing all his runners during that time returned a profit of 5.5%. Edmunds can be described as an experienced all weather jockey. He has a good strike rate, has many profitable stats, and is often listed as one of the best value jockeys in a race based on Flatstats ratings. Now picture the scenario where a 34 year old experienced jockey is allowed to claim 3lbs again! This is what has happened with Edmunds. Back in September last year Edmunds has been allowed to claim 3lb again. The last time he claimed an allowance was 9 years prior. Check out Edmunds all weather stats since he has been able to reclaim his allowance: 9 wins from 51 rides, 17.6% strike rate, 120% profit That kind of strike rate is usually only obtained by Fallon and Spencer who get to ride hot horses. The profit returned is crazy! Remember the name Jason Edmunds and consider backing all his runners on the all weather in the next few months. At the time of writing he has had a total of 67 winners. He is allowed to ride another 28 until he loses his claim ... again. This is the first ride he has had in a while, with a realistic chance. No reason why he cant make the frame today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 8, 2006 Author Share Posted July 8, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap 235 Sandown - Capable Guest 5pts ew@ 12/1 willhill There arent many horses in training who have been unluckier with the draw than Capabvle guest. Has run with credit all season and comes into todays race hovering around the same mark. He has a big race in him i think and with the jockey booking of Spencer noted, it could be today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 8, 2006 Author Share Posted July 8, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap 320 Beverley - Harry Up - 5pts ew @ 5/1 bet365 This looks like the winner will come from one of the last time out winners, both of whom have great draws and both horses running style will be suited to take advantage of their good draws. The fact remains that the selection is twice the price of the favourite, which i think is generous. There were signs of a return to form before his win and Ryan stable remains in good form. Despite the amateur jockey having a distinctly average record, his 7lb allowance must help any rise in the weights as a result of the win last time out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 8, 2006 Author Share Posted July 8, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap I've had a small ew yankee on the above for a laugh. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 8, 2006 Author Share Posted July 8, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap 730 Carlisle - Dispol Katie - 5pts ew @ 13/2 Sportingodds I believe this one can take advantage of a drop in class to grade 5 today. Her record in grades 5 and below reads: 2,1,1 The concern is that she has never won over this trip but has performed well over 5f and shown early speed in races over longer distances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 8, 2006 Author Share Posted July 8, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap 915 Nottm - Deeper in Debt - 10 pts win @ 3.65 betfair A very appropriate selction for anyone who's been following this thread! :lol Deeper in Debt has a 1 in 3 strike rate in races of this grade and a 1 in 3 strike rate in races over 1m. Combine these factors and this increases to 37%. He bounced into form last time out when making all, the RP pointing out that there are no obvious front runners in todays race, which should therefore be run to suit. He has a decent amateur aboard, who has won on him before and he takes of a useful 5lb's. The main danger, Barons Spy is a difficult horse to win with and i prefer Libre as the main danger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordyboy20 Posted July 9, 2006 Share Posted July 9, 2006 Re: Time for a Nap Despite the amateur jockey having a distinctly average record, his 7lb allowance must help any rise in the weights as a result of the win last time out. With regards to harry up the jockey let you down i know of him he lives in my town i personally would avoid at all costs no upper strength cannot push horses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.