Time for a Nap

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	450 Lingfield
Selection	Texas Gold (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	15/07/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ 8.00 (Back)
Reasoning	This is my nap of the day. The race doesnt look as strong as those contested so far this season i.e. Ultra competitive handicaps and a Group race. His "unimpressive" performances have resulted in a 4lb drop in the ratings. His mark of 98 looks attractive, given that he won off 101 less than a year ago. His record at Lingfield is impressive. 62211281211312 Filter his form down to combine Lingfield and 5f races only, he has a 44% strike rate. I'm hoping a return to his favourite track over his preferred trip, in a lesser race off a lower rating will spark a return to form. 7/1 in a 10 runner race appeals as each way value

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 5pts ew on the above selection...

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap A small return as Texas Gold finished 2nd... I've let the lack of an update drag on again - ill sort some figures later today...

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 320 Haydock Sir Nod 5 pts ew @ 15/2 WillhillAnother consistent type - he has yet to run a bad race in his last 5, with excuses for his 10th at Pontefract. Since dropping down from 7f and adopting 6f as his preferred trip, he looks an improved performer, to the extent that his current rating of 78 looks a winnable one. He caught the eye last time out especially, when 5th - best of the low numbers at Redcar: The first 5 home were drawn 16, 17, 13, 11, 2. This race for me, cancels out any concerns about the ground today. I think his price hs been inflated a touch on the assumption the horse NEEDS softer ground to perform. I would take the view he FAVOURS softer ground but it isnt essential - that last race at Redcar was on Good/Firm and he ran well.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 350 Haydock - Choysia 5pts ew @ 9/2 Ladbrokes Admittedly, the Racing Post have pointed me in this ones direction but the more i look at it, the more i like it. Looking at past form, 5f is undoubtedly his trip. Has a good record over the minimum with his only unplaced efforts coming in a good Class 1 race early on in his career and at Thirsk in April when he ruined his chance with a slow start. (Jockey eased him and was last, beaten 40+ lengths). Attempts at trips longer than this have given very average results. 5,8,6,5,5,5. Interesting to note that race commentary for his last 2 races (both over 6f) said he showed good early speed only to fade. Also, after running over longer than ideal trips in Class 3 races, this race represents a welcome drop in class for the horse, into a Class 4. What i really like is the effect that these average results have has on his rating. He races today off 77, a career low. After being competitive in a better race than this at Beverley less than a year ago off a mark of 85 - this looks very lenient. In a nutshell, we have an overdue drop to 5f, a drop in class and a lenient looking handicap mark all in the horses favour. The stables form is a slight concern but they havd a winer on Friday so hopefully nothing too much to worry about. Ladbrokes are slightly out of line with their prices here so place your bet there if you decide to go for it.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 5 pts ew on the following: 600 Lingfield - Nobillissima each way @ 10/1 >betfred Im off to Lingfield tonight so im having a study of the form early on ;) The first is a pretty unspectacular maiden and despite the short price, Averticus looks a worthy favourite. Im not playing at odds on though so will look at one for the each way place or maybe a forecast. The one i like is Nobillissima, who is forecast at 10/1 in the RP and available at that price with betfred. Finished 6/16 on his debut, he seemed to find the 6f trip too long as he weakened late on when about to challenge. The drop back to 5f should therefore be an advantage. Drawn in 5 isnt great at Windsor where a high draw bias exists. The first 6 home were drawn 13,14,4,15,10,5 630 Ling- Athenas Dream ew @ 8/1 >betfred This race wont take much winning and this is one of the few horses in the race who has shown promise in his previous runs. The stable is in cracking form too with 4 winners and a place in their last 10 runners. 730 Lingfield- Pearl Farm - ew @ 16/1 Stan James Another low quality race where an outsider could easily make an impression. On last season, this one has as good form as most of his opponents, having been competitive in better races than this one off marks in the mid-late 50's. The mark of 49 certainly looks attractive. His last run was poor but I'm hoping a 6 month absence can be used as an excuse and will be fitter today. 800 Lingfield Charlie Kennet ew @ 16/1 Stan James Dont ever call me a favourite backer! :lol This one improved considerably throughout last season, winning 5 times but suffering an inevitable hike in the ratings as a result. He struggled a bit off marks in the early 70's but once eased to 69, won well at Leicester. His subsequent 2 runs can be excused. Out of his depth in Class 3 last time out and missed the start before that. He races off an attractive looking 65 today. Glendale looks sure to be in the frame - his record over this C&D reads 54251131322. He races off a career high mark today though. 830 Lingfield - Tycheros- ew @ 9/1 Stan James Has a record of 2 wins from 2 runs over course and distance. Was in great form before flopping on heavy ground last time and has had a 116 day break since then. Thats possibly a concern but the stable has been firing with 4 winners and 2 places from their last 11 runners. DAZZLING BAY @ 25/1 skybet - each way One I tipped up on its last run, is DAZZLING BAY and i think he deserves another chance today. He was running in high class races off triple figure ratings in his prime but a long losing run saw him slip down to a mark of 86, which was enough for him to win impressively. He was raised 6lb's for that next time but the draw did him no favours. Drawn in stall 10 of 12, the first 5 home were drawn 4,1,3,5,2.The race has thrown up a couple of subsequent winners as well. He has been dropped 1lb after that and If he remains in form, that revised markk could still prove to be lenient.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap Found my poor neglected thread languising on the 4th page.... ive updated the figures.. still some work to do to get in into profit. Bets: 94 Wins: 27 Strike Rate: 29% P/L: -87.33 pts

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 500 Newmarket- Stanley Goodspeed - 5pts ew @ 16/1 Stan James Won his maiden over 6f but was subsequently campaigned over further. A return to 6f saw him return to winning ways last time out. He has earned himself a 5lb rise for that effort, which wouldnt concern me due to the impressive nature of the victory. What makes me even more bullish about Stanleys chances is the booking of the amateur jockey Patrick Hills, who rides the horse for the first time. Whilst that would normally put me off, Hills is one of the best amateur jockeys around at the moment, boasting an excellent 18% win strike rate and 37% of his rides have been placed. He takes a useful 7lb's off the horses back which obviously compensates for the 5lb rise. ****I've woken up this morning and the going at Newmarket is now on the soft side, which is a negative, however the price is twice as big as I thought it was last night so will still go in each way.****** 3.10 Sandown PAGAN SWORD 5 pts ew @ 9/1 Bet365 looks interesting. The RP correctly points out he is down in class from 2 to 3 here. He ran a great race in a class 2 on his penultimate start when although finishing 6/16, he wasnt beaten far and had his run blocked. Only 1lb higher today and in a lower grade, he should be in the mix if reproducing that. Thanks to the RP for pointing out the drop in class for us, but what also interests me is the drop down in trip to 10f, which is clearly his optimum trip. The horse has a decent 27% strike rate overall, however his record over 10f is: 1113186. (57%) His record over other trips reads: 88360205 (0%) On the face of it, the last 2 runs over 10f may be cause for concern but the 6th place was in the race i referred to earlier (not beaten far and had his run blocked) and the 8th place was his first run for 9 months. 17 run at the moment so hopefully there wont be any more than 2 non-runners. That will give us top 4 places for each way bets

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 325 Chester - Dhaular Dhar 5 pts ew @ 10/1 VC Bet - Chesters a course that often breeds course specialists and its noteworthy that DHAULAR DHAR has won both of his starts here, both over this trip. He's been struggling a bit off revised handicap marks after the 2nd of his wins here, and has dropped to a more realistic rating for this. He's a hold back horse who will come with a late run and should get the pace he needs in tomorrows race. Suitably, he may be one to play in running if you want inflated odds :ok Hopefully we'll get first 4 places paid each way. Forecast 8/1 in the Racing Post 510 Chester - Endles Summer 5pts ew @ 8/1 betfred After a barren spell last season, ENDLESS SUMMER has been a model of consistency this, having been placed in 6 of his 7 races and blocked of room in the other. He races off his last winning mark of 66 and although up in class here, he was competitive in this grade in June. Its worth noting he was running off a mark 20lb's higher this time last year. If the old spark has been rediscovered, he looks well treated and has the best of the draw too.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap Stanley Goodspeed - 2nd @ 16/1 (Beaten a head :( - the winner looks potentially unexposed so Stanley is one for the notebook i think) Pagan Sword - Unplaced - Maybe has too much weight right now, as this run was disappointing Dhaular Dhar - 3rd @ 10/1 - ran as expected, good each way bet :ok Endless Summer - Unplaced.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 305 Beverley - Thunderwing 5pts ew @ 14/1 Stan James This is the first time in a while he's had ideal conditions of softer ground and a 7f trip. He has been sliding down the handicap and if conditions prompt a return to form, he will go very close indeed.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap Just noticed Slapdash has tipped this up as well, whcih is a bonus as far as the markets are concerned ;)

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 335 Beverley - Meccas mate 5pts ew @ 15/2 William Hill Got this from the RP, who put up a good case for it. They point out that below Group Company on softer ground, his record reads 51211132 so coditions will suit, which cant be said for some of the market leaders.. 3rd in the race last year and is slightly better treated this time around.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap Thunderwing came 3rd :) Meccas Mate was unplaced :( Bets: 100 Wins: 30 Strike Rate: 30% P/L: -82.33 pts

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 505 Newcastle Sir Nod 5pts ew @ 16/1 - widely available Sir Nod has shown promise on a couple of occassions this season, off marks higher than today. He was possibly badly drawn when performing badly last time out (the last 4 were drawn 9,10,11 and 12 in an 11 runner field. By the trainers admission, he appreciates cut in the ground. Its a shame there is 15 runners, for each way purposes but 16/1 looks value.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 24o Wolves - Signal Hill 5 pts ew @ 7/1 Stan James Has been knocking on the door for a while and deserves to pick up a race of this natuire

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 5 pts ew for the purposes of this thread...

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	335 haydock
Selection	fullandby (Each-Way)
Strength	10/10
Date	01/09/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 4.33 (Back)
Reasoning	This one got a great write up from his trainer in the "Trainer file" column in the RFO so I was kicking myself when he subsequently ran a blinder and finished 2nd LTO @ 28/1 and i forgot to back him :( . 6f and soft ground are his conditions and he has been fairly treated for that last effort.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap Sir Nod - Unplaced :( (badly drawn again, worth another chance.) Signal Hill 3rd :) (seems to get placed alot without winning) Fullandby 1st @ 4/1 :)

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 730 Wolves - Diamond Josh 5pts ew @ 5/1 bet365 (NAP) Had 2 good wins in this grade before stepping up a grade and running with credit. He was given a strange ride last time out when well backed and is worth another chance, especially as he is back on a winnable handicap mark now.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 145 Haydock - Red Lancer 5pts ew @ 16/1 betfred He looks well treated on his best form and showed signs of a return on his seasonal reappearance in June. He didnt build on that next time out but was staying on in the Ebor last time and continues to slip down the ratings. He has form on soft ground so could run into a place. Although a slightly speculative bet, i'd have rated this ones chances around the 9-10/1 mark so the 16/1 available with betfred has persuaded me to have an each way play.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap Diamond Josh - unplaced :( Red Lancer - unplaced :( (this one showed up for a long way before fading and i might bet him again next time out if the ground is better) 330 Newcastle - Culcabock 5pts ew @ SP A pretty awful race which is going to be a real slog. 2 miles in heavy ground will take some getting. One horse that has the stamina and acts in the soft ground is CULCABOCK who has been steadily slipping down the ratings on his last 3 flat runs, and has been getting noticeably closer to the winner each time. Last time out he was only beaten 2 lengths into 4th and he is down another pound tomorrow.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 510 Bath Who's Winning - 5pts ew @ SP I've been looking at this ones form and it seems that its taken him over a year to get over the hike in the weights he suffered after a purple patch in Aug/Sept 2004, when the form read 1,1,2,1 and was raised from a rating of 66 to 86 by May 2005 as a result. He has remained pretty uncompetitive since then and inevitably his rating dropped to allow him to win off 69 in July. LTO he ran well from a poor draw and is down a further pound for that. After a year out of sorts, he finally looks on good terms with his racing and can go close in this. over 5f and on ground good/firm or firm he has a 33% strike rate from 6 runs.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 5.00 Newcastle: Son of Thunder 5pts ew @ SP Son of Thunder looks interesting in the 5.00. The combination of soft ground and the application of blinkers enabled him to get off the mark for the first time in a year last time out. He wasnt exactly the most convincing winner but he gets the same conditions today and he's only up 1lb so should be worth a small dabble in a realively poor race.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap Culcabock: 3rd @ 7/2 (annoyed at the price - was forecast 10/1 :() Who's Winning: 2nd @ 12/1 :) Son of Thunder: Non Runner

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 510 Leic - Tax Free 10 pts win @SP Deserves to win a race this year after a series of good efforts in top hcaps. This looks within reach.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap A selection from 28/8

505 Newcastle Sir Nod 5pts ew @ 16/1 - widely available Sir Nod has shown promise on a couple of occassions this season, off marks higher than today. He was possibly badly drawn when performing badly last time out (the last 4 were drawn 9,10,11 and 12 in an 11 runner field. By the trainers admission, he appreciates cut in the ground. Its a shame there is 15 runners, for each way purposes but 16/1 looks value.

Sir Nod - Unplaced :( (badly drawn again, worth another chance.)

I'll give him another chance tomorrow in the 450 at Southwell SIR NOD 5pts ew @ SP Tax Free, who i've followed this season without winning, finally won today so maybe its an omen for this horse, who I've also followed and lost money on this season. Cmon Noddy!

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 340 Kempton - Cursum Perficio 5pts ew @ SP This one looks interesting coming back from a 134 day absence. Im hoping that isnt a negative as he ran a stormer first time out this season (after a 292 day absence) behind the very well treated FAJR, who has since gone onto better things. To put it in perspective, both horses raced off marks of 70 that day and FAJR was victorious by only 3/4 length. That horse has won twice since then and is now rated 82. Cursum gets in off 74 here so there is a case to say he is potentially well treated. The gamble is of course that we dont know if he is 100% fit. Next time out after getting beaten by FAJR he disappointed and that may explain the long absence since. I'll be keeping stakes small but the forecast 10/1 in a 10 runner race looks good each way value.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap Sir Nod 2nd @ 9/2 :) Cursum Perficio - Unplaced :( 510 Chepstow - Cerulean Rose - 5 pts ew @ SP Gets on very well with Francis Norton and has a 1111351 record with Norton on board. He took advantage of a slipping hcpa mark to win last time out and the trainer AJ Carroll commented that he thinks she will go in again. Races off 60 here, which is great considering she was competitive off 70 this time last year.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap Cerulean Rose was placed at 5/1 - i'll update the figures shortly. Onto today and im betting: 530 Goodwood: Fairfield Princess 5pts ew @ 10/1 totesport Barely runs a bad race and has come up aginst some decent horses in defeat. After being outclassed in a couple of Class 1 races recently, he returned to a more suitable grade last time out and ran well to finish 3rd behind a winner who appears to be well in at the weights. Racing back over 5f will be appreciated - her good runs have been over that trip. I'm also a fan of the amateur jockey on board today who will take off 7lb's today, which i feel could be significant.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a Nap 240 Goodwood - Grantley Adams 5pts ew @ 5/1 bet365 I fancy GRANTLEY ADAMS int he 240 - not far behind the useful Gimasha last time and who's only recent bad run came on softened ground at Ascot. Over a trip of 6f, his form reads: 7431223125363 The recent 6th was on unsuitable ground and the 5th was in a valuable handicap with 20 runners. Very consistent and looks and each way bet to nothing if you ask me? 5/1 available with bet365 :ok