Kanga Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Whooooosh .........way over my tiny brain I'm afraid :loon But I'm glad that TP has some merits and it's a vital part of this thread. Any ideas how Betting Genius & Michael Wrays Spreadsheets are Calculated ? Is there an easy way to explain the various methodology in laymens terms ? :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Kanga Been looking at the Michael Wray predictions for this weekend and have found that some of my matches differ from the ones shown in your table (sorry!). I've checked my tables against those at the BBC sport website and they appear to match. The differences I have are: Swansea v Huddersfield 1-1 Southampton v Sheff Wed 0-0 Hull v Wolves 0-1 Hartlepool v Doncaster 1-2 Barnet v Carlisle 1-2 Lincoln v Notts Co 2-0 Torquay v Mansfield 2-0 Wrexham v Northampton 2-2 Probably won't affect any of the selections but might be worth checking your tables. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi DavidC, Can you just check the MW thread - Merlin very recently posted the matches on there that havent been played yet - do they match with your tables ? Cheers :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Kanga, I agree with all the missing matches for Epl, Championship, League 1 and League 2 (only have these 4 currently updated) that Merlin posted and the additions that you put in. Don't know where that leaves us if we all agree with the matches that have already been played but still have diferences in predicted scores. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hmmmm... that doesn't sound good :unsure Merlin - Can you check the MW figures I've posted in the tables and see if you agree with me or DavidC please. Cheers :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 25, 2006 Share Posted February 25, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well, I've just re-checked all the TP ratings and they are the same :ok Swansea dropped from 50% to 44% yesterday but as it wasnt a pick I didn't change it (match ended 2-2 so a good change to below 48%) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 25, 2006 Author Share Posted February 25, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... hi guys Andy and David. I have done a little investigation into the matches highlighted, but as it is a MW query, I will answer this on the MW thread, please see there.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 25, 2006 Share Posted February 25, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well from the 10 selections today 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (Brentford) - so 70% for the wins only and 90% for the lay method which is about what we are running at and making a steady profit. I'll post the actual results later and remind you of these 2 for tommorrow. DatePremiershipTPBGMWOdds 26/02/06Bolton v Fulham 49.4%58%2-11.80 :hope 26/02/06Liverpool v Man City 64.2%67%1-01.53 :hope 26/02/06West Brom v Middlesbrough 42.8%55%2-1 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 26, 2006 Share Posted February 26, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 26, 2006 Share Posted February 26, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Some good figures there Cavelloman :clap So just to confirm the amount of TP % isn't used to select the home wins - they are picked on VALUE which is TP% * Decimal Odds > 100. Average odds for you were 2.37 so only a > 42% strike rate needed to make a profit (assuming no commission) and you showed 62.5% (average home win % on all leagues is 44% by random selection) If that strike rate holds then you would have a VERY good system. Have you calculated the reverse using this method - chosing the worse value away teams to lay ? :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 26, 2006 Share Posted February 26, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Good idea on Wednesday I will put up best value homes and best value aways(these could indicate home lays). I think the trigger point for a bet should be +8% to allow a margin of error. I will also indicate double values (both the Times and Racing and Football Outlook) The hard thing to come to terms with in soccer betting is that the best team on the day does not alway win. Idea for Times value bets-Stake according the % chance of win for simplicity- 55% stake £55 32% stake £32. Obviously adjust stake to about your normal level. The bets also indicated to be value for the Racing and Football Computer scored 5 from 8-Eves,11/8,9/4.18/8 & 10/11. Thanks again for pointing me in the direction of this source of computer generated odds. P.S. At least unofficial bets did better then my official advices on Sports-punter, unfortunately staked only moderately on them!!!. Got a right bloody nose on the French /German Soccer yesterday. Confidence now at the bottom of the Atlantic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 26, 2006 Share Posted February 26, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. hi guys - going well. kanga are the 'results' in the table actual finished results? if so, sheffutd qpr did not finish 2-1! i know cos i lost money on it!! 2-3 qpr! keep up the good work. the 3-0 strategy looks impressive. i follow with interest. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 26, 2006 Share Posted February 26, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well I thought they were the finished results - for some reason I missed the 2-3 :spank I must admit I don't concentrate so hard on the non-selections :loon Well the strike rates and yield are as follows. I have made an alteration to the figures as I wasn't calculating the "Lay the Away" correctly - these are now all based on a 1 point Stake or Lay. Home Win only ARB 1x Lay the Away 65% Strike Rate 93% Strike Rate 93% Strike Rate 9.61% Yield4.01% yield12.13% Yield6.63 Points Profit 2.77 Points 8.37 Points (after commission) :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 26, 2006 Share Posted February 26, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. 1 selection for 28th :- DateLeague 1TPBGMWOdds28/02/06Bournemouth v Barnsley39.4%34%0-228/02/06Port Vale v Scunthorpe42.8%28%1-228/02/06Doncaster v Brentford40%2-1 DateLeague 2TPBGMWOdds28/02/06L Orient v Barnet50.2%60%2-01.61:hope 28/02/06Rochdale v Bury45.3%27%0-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 27, 2006 Author Share Posted February 27, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. The Leyton Orient selection looks good to me Andy.Probably have a dabble on this tomorrow night, and maybe have a look at the Stenhousemuir match at the same time on Betfair,see what odds I can get.Looks like a promising double here.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. If it helps, I rate Leyton Orient @ 29 for tomorrow night, which puts them in the 'should win' bracket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well it's a selection anyway - :moon ..... :loon Seriously there's a good correlation between FF's ratings and this method and it all adds to the confidence. I shall be getting the best lay price I can on Barnet that's for sure :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maj69er Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. This is a fascinating thread..Been following it for a while and over the weekend I played a Goliath and Super Heinz, with Kanga's and Cavelloman's selections and made a profit. Thank You to both of you for posting your selections and the others who add to this thread. Cavelloman I am still trying to figure what Poisson distribution is LOL. You should put your knowledge of stats etc to other sports. I know a few who try NBA etc..Just from reading some your stats on footie here you definitely know what you doing.... best of luck to you all and i wish you a safe and blessed evening..... Majid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Majid, Thanks for the kind words, it's takes a bit of time to compile the tables but it's proving worth it - I constantly check the %'s to see if any other combination is better but we seem to have hit the ground running with the method we initially set up - even though backing them may be different. Glad you're liking the thread - and the same to any other viewers out there who use the tables :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well not quite as expected but as you know I've been "laying the away" so another winner :clap I'll mark it with an unsure emoticon as we keep tracking the betting systems. DateLeague 1TPBGMWOdds28/02/06Bournemouth v Barnsley39.4%34%0-21-128/02/06Port Vale v Scunthorpe42.8%28%1-21-228/02/06Doncaster v Brentford40%2-10-0 DateLeague 2TPBGMWOdds28/02/06Leyton Orient v Barnet50.2%60%2-00-0 :unsure 28/02/06Rochdale v Bury45.3%27%0-11-1 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 1, 2006 Author Share Posted March 1, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... look good again Andy.Probably the two weakest ones I se are Preston N E and Southampton, they look a bit harder to call, but will look good with the extra draw cover.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Kang, Sorry to throw a spanner in the works (again!) but I have some MW predictions different to those that you have posted. I have double-checked my tables and they agree with the BBC website. The differences I have are: Cardiff v Sheffield Wed 2-0 Southampton v Coventry 2-0 Huddersfield v Doncaster 3-1 Port Vale v MK Dons 3-2 Boston v Northampton 1-2 Bury v Macclesfield 1-0 Cheltenham v Wycombe 2-1 Rushden v Grimsby 2-0 I'll post the differences on Merlin's MW Spreadsheet thread for him to have a look at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi DavidC, Something funny is going on - I've checked all the leagues in the spreadsheet tables against the BBC ones and they all seem ok. Have you entered the midweek matches ? - it seems like the teams you have listed above played midweek - only thing I can think of :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Andy I've entered all outstanding results and checked the league tables twice and then re-done the predictions and I still show the 8 differences. I'll go through everything with a fine toothcomb tomorrow and let you know if I spot anything wrong. It might be an idea to post our league tables to see if they are identical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 2, 2006 Share Posted March 2, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi David, Thanks for pointing out the discrepancies - I've just scrapped my old MW sheets and uploaded new ones (far easier to do than check & alter) I've changed the MW info in the tables above (no selection difference) - if you look at the MW thread you'll see that you are spot on :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swagman Posted March 2, 2006 Share Posted March 2, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi guys, great work as usual. However, looks like the TP has been updated since stats looked at - many have changed resulting in these changes to predictions that matter:- These are now out Southampton drops to 44 P.Vale drops to 47.6 On the bright side, these are in Norwich 50 Plymouth 52 Huddersfield 48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 2, 2006 Share Posted March 2, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well spotted Swagman - I'll wait til tommorrow to update in case of anymore changes :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Swagman - I've just checked the TP ratings only to find they are exactly the same as I've listed above - don't know why that should be ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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