Times Newspaper Predictor.

[Kanga]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Cavelloman, Credit has to go to Merlin for finding and starting this thread on the TP predictor - It has now "morphed" into the 3 predictor engine method but it's really good to know that TP has more power than perhaps we realised. BG stands for "Betting Genius" it's a powerful betting tool similar to TP - I don't know how BG works out their calculations (maybe you would know ?) but the results BG produces are within 1% of TP but the percentages given are often very different, which is why it makes for a great additional filter. If you do a search on Google it will take you to their site and you can get a free 30 day trial anytime, after that it's £30 to buy. :ok

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. (Pops in and proves he is watching this thread) :tongue2 Mind you those selections from cavelloman would have been nice if you could get all those prices off one bookmaker. I'm not a football singles kind of guy.;)

[Kanga]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well a good result again - final result over the weekend was 5 winners and 5 Draws - Loved the LL "slayers" quote :loon

Date	Premiership	TP	BG	MW	Odds
12/03/06	Man Utd v Newcastle	71.3%	76%	3-1	2-0:clap
12/03/06	Charlton v Middlesbrough	55.3%	41%	1-1	2-1
12/03/06	Arsenal v Liverpool	36.9%	54%	2-1	2-1

Date	League 1	TP	BG	MW	Odds
12/03/06	Swansea v Walsall	49.1%	44%	2-0	1-1

New tables of running profits to follow :ok

[Kanga]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. So here are the results and I'm pleased to say that "lay the Away" has doubled the bank in only 8 weeks !!! and that all staking methods are in profit.

Home Win only	ARB 1x	Lay the Away
63% Strike Rate	94% Strike Rate	94% Strike Rate
3.59% Yield	5.57% yield	14.06% Yield
3.09 Points Profit	4.79 Points	12.09 Points :clap

[thunderfoot]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Reference earlier post about how much the selections from The Predictor might be diluted by using the 2 other sources. I've got hold of years 2003/2004 & 2004/2005 of The Predictors H/D/A percentages and looked at all those with Home percentages greater than or equal to 48%. There were 1,452 selections of which 269 resulted in being Aways, 400 were Draws and 783 were Homes. You can guesstimate some average Odds and apply to these figures, so assuming the Average Away Odds to be about 5.0(??) then the returns on the LAY Aways would be ... 25%'ish!!?? So perhaps this is more proof that the route being followed is the correct one ;) . Interestingly, of all Predictions (3,495) in this period, 1,618 were correct in predicting the correct result of the game i.e. whether it was a H, A or D. The table below also shows the lack of Draws that the Predictor makes. Predictors selections on left; Actual results along the top.

Model	A	D	H	Grand Total
A	364	253	303	920
D	1		4	5
H	577	739	1,254	2,570
Grand Total	942	992	1,561	3,495

Moral ..... keep posting the selections for those of us that don't have access to BG (or to tight to buy it!!):D

[thunderfoot]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor.

So here are the results and I'm pleased to say that "lay the Away" has doubled the bank in only 8 weeks !!! and that all staking methods are in profit.

Home Win only	ARB 1x	Lay the Away
63% Strike Rate	94% Strike Rate	94% Strike Rate
3.59% Yield	5.57% yield	14.06% Yield
3.09 Points Profit	4.79 Points	12.09 Points :clap

Kanga, Are these correct? I thought that ARB'ing Home & Draw was the same as LAY'ing the Away!

[Kanga]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi TF, Thanks for working out all those past stats, it's great to know were on the right tracks - I have average away odds at 5.35 for this season if it's any help. Perhaps the term arb 1x in the tables is a little misleading but you're right that it achieves the same thing - I take the bet365 odds and split the % stake between win & draw to achieve the same return with either outcome - but it's nowhere near as profitable as laying the away team on betfair.

[Kanga]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Apologies for not posting the Stoke v Crystal Palace match last night it wasnt a pick for the system but I should have posted. Anyway here's the picks for tonight and a couple of selections at nice odds :-

Date	FA Cup	TP	BG	MW	Odds
14/03/06	Man City v Aston Villa	50.5%	54%	3-1	2.00:hope

Date	Championship	TP	BG	MW	Odds
14/03/06	Preston v Ipswich	55.9%	59%	2-1	1.72:hope

Date	League 1	TP	BG	MW	Odds
14/03/06	Rotherham v Oldham	48.4%	32%	1-2
14/03/06	Scunthorpe v Hartlepool	49.9%	29%	1-0

Date	League 2	TP	BG	MW	Odds
14/03/06	Macclesfield v Wrexham	25.5%	30%	1-2
14/03/06	Rochdale v Grimsby	37.9%	27%	1-1

:ok

[thunderfoot]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Kanga, What MW criteria are you using in showing a game as a 'good' selection? I thought it was by 3 clear goals.

[Kanga]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. TF, Merlin is running the MW 3-0 goal selection method on his MW thread and it's a very good method. But for this system using 3-0 cuts out too many selections - It works out that just the basic MW home win indicator is a very good filter. When I have time I will update the table I posted earlier detailing the various combination of methods. If anybody knows of another predictor - I could try and see if an improvement could be achieved but the current 94% isnt bad.

[thunderfoot]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor.

If anybody knows of another predictor - I could try and see if an improvement could be achieved but the current 94% isnt bad.

Don't know what it's like but came across this: http://www.ngthomas.co.uk/ltrack.htm and this http://www.totomaster.com/

[Kanga]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. TF, Thanks for the links I'll have a look at those :ok FF, Nice to see you looking in on the TP thread I keep a close eye on yours :loon 2 more winners tonight to add to the collection :zzz

Date	FA Cup	TP	BG	MW	Result
14/03/06	Man City v Aston Villa	50.5%	54%	3-1	2-1:clap

Date	Championship	TP	BG	MW	Result
14/03/06	Preston v Ipswich	55.9%	59%	2-1	3-1:clap

Date	League 1	TP	BG	MW	Results
14/03/06	Rotherham v Oldham	48.4%	32%	1-2	2-0
14/03/06	Scunthorpe v Hartlepool	49.9%	29%	1-0	2-0

Date	League 2	TP	BG	MW	Results
14/03/06	Macclesfield v Wrexham	25.5%	30%	1-2	3-2
14/03/06	Rochdale v Grimsby	37.9%	27%	1-1	0-0

:drums

[Kanga]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. And another for tomorrow night :-

Date	Premiership	TP	BG	MW	Odds
15/03/06	Liverpool v Fulham	78.1%	69%	2-0	1.36:hope

Date	League 2	TP	BG	MW	Odds
15/03/06	Oxford v Bristol Rovers	46.9%	16%	0-2

Date	FA Cup	TP	BG	MW	Odds
15/03/06	West Ham v Bolton	31.6%	48%	1-2

Poor odds but they all add up.

[merlin]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ... Two good winners there last night Andy, and another looks good for tonight also.Will be looking in later!:ok

[DAC]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Very impressed chaps - I wish i could work out exactly what you are talking about!! but your results are terrific.

[merlin]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... What's the problem DAC. Simple to understand.Take all readings on the Times Newpaper Predictor (message 1) and every match which has a home rating of 48% or more, make a note.There is a Betting Genius thread where the same 48% ratings are also noted.Then there is Michael Wray Spreadsheet thread where you can download his ratings free, and where any of the matches above are highlighted as a home win, and all three predictor engines show the home win, them those are the selections.Take Kanga's last table as an example and you will note:- TP(Times Predictor) 78.1%.BG (Betting Genius) 69% and MW (Michael Wray) 2-0, this highlights the home win under the criteria set by Kanga, and Liverpool are selected to win at odds 1.36.Hope that this is a bit clearer.Also see the Betting Genius thread and the Michael Wray Spreadsheet sytem thread,and you will soon catch on!Cheers.Merlin.;)

[thunderfoot]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. I think I'm being dim!!! I can't see/find the Betting Genius thread!!! Under what title is it .... assuming it's somewhere under 'Systems & Startegys'!!!

[DAC]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Merlin:

Simple to understand.Take all readings on the Times Newpaper Predictor (message 1) and every match which has a home rating of 48% or more, make a note.There is a Betting Genius thread where the same 48% ratings are also noted.Then there is Michael Wray Spreadsheet thread where you can download his ratings free, and where any of the matches above are highlighted as a home win, and all three predictor engines show the home win, them those are the selections.Take Kanga's last table as an example and you will note:- TP(Times Predictor) 78.1%.BG (Betting Genius) 69% and MW (Michael Wray) 2-0, this highlights the home win under the criteria set by Kanga, and Liverpool are selected to win at odds 1.36.Hope that this is a bit clearer.Also see the Betting Genius thread and the Michael Wray Spreadsheet sytem thread,and you will soon catch on!Cheers.Merlin

Blimey!! :lol

[thunderfoot]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor.

And another for tomorrow night :-

Date	Premiership	TP	BG	MW	Odds
15/03/06	Liverpool v Fulham	78.1%	69%	2-0	1.36:hope

Date	League 2	TP	BG	MW	Odds
15/03/06	Oxford v Bristol Rovers	46.9%	16%	0-2

Date	FA Cup	TP	BG	MW	Odds
15/03/06	West Ham v Bolton	31.6%	48%	1-2

Poor odds but they all add up.

Just not brave enough to LAY the AWAY ..... Odds of 12.0 :eek !!!

[Kanga]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Dac, :rollin It's nowhere near as bad as it sounds :rollin If you've got a few minutes read through the thread from the start as the system has morphed into the current table selection method. the TP column must read >= 48 the BG column must read >= 48 the MW column must be a home win scoreline. when all 3 align it's a selection the odds are just there for interest. TF - it will be there under systems & strategies but a little way back now I would imagine.

[Kanga]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. TF - Laying at 12.0 is equal to 1/11 = 1.09 for covering home & draw. Betfair have it as down 1.04 for the double chance 1x and they are the best odds on offer :eek You can always lay the draw at lower odds - it's in play so you can always cover yourself ;)

[merlin]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... Hi there young Thunderfoot. The thread you want is Betting Genius Trial System started by David C.Its on the Systems and Strategies Forum, page 3, and about half way down the page.That is where some of the current system employed on the TP thread was first tread. Also I tend to agree with you on laying the away, it takes a brave man to lay at those odds, favourite or no favourite.Just what would the amount we would stake here, a fiver would run up a £55 liability just to win a fiver!Even if £1 were staked, there would still be a liability of £11 just to win a solitary £1.Can't you tell I'm not a big fan of laying!:unsure

[Kanga]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Ho Hum :dude

Date	Premiership	TP	BG	MW	Result
15/03/06	Liverpool v Fulham	78.1%	69%	2-0	5-1:clap :clap

Date	League 2	TP	BG	MW	Result
15/03/06	Oxford v Bristol Rovers	46.9%	16%	0-2	1-0

Date	FA Cup	TP	BG	MW	Result
15/03/06	West Ham v Bolton	31.6%	48%	1-2	1-1

Thought 5-1 deserved a double clap !!! Banking details to follow but 3/3 for the midweek picks.

[thunderfoot]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. I feel :puke !!! .... but not half as :puke if I had LAY'd the AWAY and the result had gone to Fulham :) Must follow Kanga Must follow Kanga Must follow Kanga Must follow Kanga Must follow Kanga Must follow Kanga Must follow Kanga Must follow Kanga Must follow Kanga Must follow Kanga :spank

[Kanga]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. TF - Thanks mate, but you have to do what is comfortable to you. I'll have to check on the win only strike rate for selection under 1.4 But to me laying is the most profitable way - remember it also covers the draw so the odds are lower than win only but the strike rate is greater. The best double chance odds on 1x on last nights match was 1.04 but laying at 12.0 = 1.09 thats a big difference over the course of a season. No selections for tonight :ok

[merlin]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ...what happened to the resolute, "I'm no layer" attitude that prevailed up above? The facts still remain the same, and after all it's the risk element that is the major factor TF! That does not change and one has to tread very carefully with these matches or one could end up in the poor house!:\

[Kanga]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well you made me have to do it didn't you :loon I've just rewritten my excel spreadsheet to "cover the draw" to see if that was any better - this basically does what it says on the tin - places just enough on the draw to return the stake and let the wins give the profit. The results are impressive but as I keep saying :spank the lay method is more efiicient.

Home Win only	Cover the Draw	Lay the Away
64% Strike Rate	94% Strike Rate	94% Strike Rate
5.83% Yield	12.2% yield	14.29% Yield
5.19 Points Profit	10.82 Points	12.71 Points

Pick your Poison :ok

[merlin]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... yep Andy figures don't lie, and I would be the first to admit that. But my reasoning is that to acquire such extra 'lay' riches 1.89 as opposed to the 1X, one would have to back every selection in turn and be forced to accept a very large lay liability, and presumably be forced to endure the side effects of stomach ulcers in the process.I still maintain that it takes a steady nerve and at the end of the day does one sit down and think about the element of the much greater risk factor.:\

[davidc]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Merlin; There is no extra risk in laying a team as opposed to backing the other team 1X or Asian handicap + 1/2, just greater rewards because of the better odds. Take the example of this weekends game Birmingham v Tottenham and lets say that you want to stake 10 uniits. If you wanted to back Birmingham 1X the best current odds are 1.61 so you risk 10 units to win 6.1. On the other hand if you lay Tottenham instead, currently @ 2.36 (Betfair) you get the equivalent odds of 1.74, you still risk 10 units (your liability) but you win 7.4 units less commission. Laying is almost always the best way to bet given these circumstances.

[merlin]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ... Hi there David,I'm afraid I look at things differently.Firstly should the liability not be £13.60, 2.36 - 1 * stake £10. Secondly you win your stake less commission £10-5% = £9.50. You could say that you risked losing £13.60 to win £9.50. I don't risk the full tenner on the home win, I have a saver on the draw, so providing the away does not win, I'm no worse off. The example you give is also a 'mild' one at that, most of the lay away odds tend to be much higher and therefore attracting more risk.There are those who take the bull by the horns, but I'm one of those who prefers to tread a less risky path.;) PS The current odds for backing Tottenham are 2.32 so its now risking a tenner to win £13.20 + your tenner back.