Kanga Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. yep you're right :spank typed in a hurry whilst excited - so that's even better value :nana new calculations are as follows :- 1.703 * 7.33 3.750 * 2.67 2.48 points profit on the win - money back for the draw :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Good evening gents, Merlin with response to you question (some time ago) I use that selection and then lay the opposite team that way I cover the win and the draw. since Kanga started the tables I think there has been 2 times where the lay lost and 26 times where they lay came good. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Nice one LL - that's another way of doing it :ok 48 selections and only 3 outright losses from the tables. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 17, 2006 Author Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... looks an interesting bet LL this laying business.Iv'e never ever actually thought of laying or indeed laying, it's certainly an option to cover the 1X. Say you have a tenner at odds 3.8 laying a team, if they lost you then get the odds for the opponents or the draw,whichever comes up, is that right? So if the opponents were say 1.80 you get £18 with the win, or if a draw you get say 3.25 * 10 = £32.50. That's the good side.If the side which is layed win, then you lose 10 * 3.8 = £38, is that how it works? Will be interested in your answer.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Merlin - If you lay a team £10 - you win £10 if they don't win (think of it that you are acting as the bookie taking a bet) - the trouble is that you have to have the bet covered in your account. Take tonights match Torquay are 6.3 at the moment to lay on betfair - if you lay £10 you have to have £53 in your account to cover the bet. Hope that made sense :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 17, 2006 Author Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ... yep! That's what I arrive at in my demo above.Had a bit think about this since posting, has some advantages, but oh my, some pretty LARGE disadvantages.Get one or two of these wrong chum, and you are in the mire well and truly.:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well it's got me thinking as well - the average lay works out to be very close to 6.00 with this methods selections. 45 (wins) * 1 point - 3 (losses) * 6 = 27 points profit. against 2.34 (win) or 10.88 (covering the draw) The trouble is that with 6 selections in one day you have to have 30 points in your betfair account to win 6 points. The advantage is that the draw counts in your favour when laying. Definitely worth keeping an eye on :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. What you say is right, you do need quite a large bank compared with your unit stake. The only way to lay and make any headway is you need a cracking strike rate with value and a lot of volume in the market. With the table Kanga does you get the good strike rate and because they are near always hot favs then the volume is there as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
callpane Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. hi, very interested in this laying system, just unsure how it works, could someone supply an example of the bets required for the following man utd v liverpool fa cup 12.30 kick-off Liverpool win 2.8 draw 3.15 lay 2.82 Man Utd win 3.0 draw 3.15 lay 3.05 :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi callpane, if you thought that man utd would either win or at worse draw then you could either arb man utd to win/draw or you could lay Liverpool. If you did lay Liverpool for 100 points you would firstly need 182 points in your betfair account going off the odds you have quoted above. If man utd win or draw you would gain the 100 points minus your commission (this for most people range from 5% to around 3%). If Liverpool win then you would lose 182 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
callpane Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. It's that simple??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 17, 2006 Author Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... there's a demo Calpane if you go on the Betfair site and click on this. Then just follow the steps as suggested.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
callpane Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. cheers guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 17, 2006 Author Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... there's the first one home, neatly tucked up in the fold! The Cobblers just got home mind with a narrow 1-0 win scored in the 81st minute. Nevertheless a win is a win no matter how slender, and some profit into my pot.Cheers.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 18, 2006 Share Posted February 18, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Ok another winner :- 32 wins - 14 draws - 3 losses LL – Can you check my figures for the lay method assuming ave odds of 6.00 and 5% commission. Championship TP BG MW Odds Result Luton v Reading 26.6 % 21% 2-2 3-2 League 2 TP BG MW Odds Result Northampton v Torquay 61.7% 59% 1-0 1.50 1-0 Win only Cover the Draw Lay 2.84 Points 11.13 Points 28.7 Points ( after commission) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted February 18, 2006 Share Posted February 18, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Kanga, taken at average odds of 6.0 the following would apply: 32 wins = +32 points profit 14 draws = +14 points profit total points = +46 minus commission @5% = 43.7 3 losers = 6.0 = -15 points TOTAL = +28.7 points hope this makes sense as I am getting sleepy now. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 18, 2006 Share Posted February 18, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks LL - I tried to PM you for advice - I made the mistake of taking the 3 losses as -18 points. Now Edited tables above - Cheers :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted February 18, 2006 Share Posted February 18, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Will have to sort out that PM thing. I have just got the following prices off betfair to lay: hull 5.4 Coventry 5.4 MK Dons 6.4 Rushden 7.6 Shrewsbury 5.3 A total liability of 25.1 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 18, 2006 Author Share Posted February 18, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... should that not be 30.1 LL ?;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted February 18, 2006 Share Posted February 18, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi merlin 30.1 are the total odds eg. you lay at 6.0 if the lay loses you lose 5 points, the other 1 is the backers point. most probably I am now talking gibberish as I need to sleep. Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 18, 2006 Share Posted February 18, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well it's half time and things are shaping up nicely :- Cardiff v Hull1-0Plymouth v Coventry2-0Huddersfield v M K Dons3-0Carlisle v Rushden2-0Darlington v Shrewsbury0-0 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 18, 2006 Share Posted February 18, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. 4 wins and a loss - can't complain !!! Notice how the teams that are picked this week and last are the ones that are winning by a good margin. ChampionshipTPBGMWResultsBrighton v Watford20.5%20%1-20-1Cardiff v Hull58.0%48%2-11-0:clap Leicester v Leeds43.3%25%1-11-1Millwall v Crystal Palace29.6%27%0-11-1Norwich v Derby43.4%42%2-22-0Plymouth v Coventry50.2%59%2-1(3-1):clap Sheff Wed v Sheff Utd29.7%24%0-01-2Wolverhampton v Ipswich54.8%18%1-21-0 League 1TPBGMWResultsBournemouth v Blackpool50.2%49%1-21-1Bradford v Bristol City43.1%30%2-21-1Chesterfield v Southend45.4%28%0-13-4Doncaster v Gillingham42.8%53%1-02-0Huddersfield v M K Dons52.5%68%3-05-0:clap Port Vale v Nottm Forest38.7%48%2-20-2Scunthorpe v Swansea42.3%25%1-22-2Swindon v Rotherham30.6%71%2-02-3Tranmere v Barnsley59.1%38%1-10-1Walsall v Oldham51.3%41%1-10-2 League 2TPBGMWResultsBoston Utd v Wycombe35.6%35%1-01-1Bristol Rovers v Stockport54.2%44%1-12-2Bury v Barnet39.9%45%2-10-0Carlisle v Rushden58.4%57%3-05-0:clap Chester v Leyton Orient42.9%17%0-20-2Darlington v Shrewsbury48.7%48%3-10-1:wall Macclesfield v Lincoln City28.2%45%2-11-1Mansfield v Wrexham41.6%48%1-12-2Notts County v Peterborough31.5%33%1-21-2Oxford Utd v Cheltenham43.7%14%0-11-1Rochdale v Grimsby50.4%26%1-2P-P :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Don't forget 1 selection for today - PremiershipTPBGMWOddsTottenham v Wigan60.5%50%2-11.66 Let's make this a good weekend - system profit/loss results to follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Nice going kanga. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. The Spurs match was not quite as predicted but depending on how you backed it not so disasterous. PremiershipTPBGMWResultsTottenham v Wigan60.5%50%2-12-2 :unsure Home Win only Cover the Draw Lay the Away 65% Strike Rate 93% Strike Rate 93% Strike Rate 3.87 Points 11.03 Points 27.5 Points (after commission) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Just realised this is the 3rd time in just over a month that Wigan have been included and each time they have scuppered the result - what is it about them ? Apologies to any fans viewing - :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 19, 2006 Author Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ... still an interesting set of figures Andy.Also interesting to see the lays exactly the same.I just think Wigan are unpredictable, you never know just how to take them.:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Yep the trouble with the lay method and 6.00 odds - 5 wins ( inc the draw) evens out the loss. BUT - these are average odds NOT value odds - I believe you can easily do 3-5% better than quoted. 93% isnt a bad strike rate though :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 19, 2006 Author Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... don't think I'm gonna be a big fan of the lay method though Andy. I think the odds situation in this type of bet definitely restrict your stake.If your stake is big, and the lay wins, it's a quick way to the poorhouse!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well that nicely leads me into the next subject I was going to raise :- Because we've been "fluid" with our method and analysis - it's now morphed into this current system. Betting suggestions have now been forwarded to make the best of it. Personally I like the "lay the away" method as I call it now :cheers and I've adapted my spreadsheet program to account for it so I can track the progress. What would be the census of opinion - shall I continue to post the win only stakes - cover the draw - lay the away or ............??? Anybody have any thoughts on the arb method LL suggested earlier ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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