merlin Posted January 8, 2006 Share Posted January 8, 2006 .... I thought that I would re-introduce this thread as a compliment and aid in conjuction with Michael Wray's Spreadsheets.I believe there was reference and a link to the old predictor on the Betting Tools Forum quite some time ago, but there was never any tracking on this forum to my knowledge.I had little time over the weekend but managed to track 21 of the Cup games which appeared on the coupon.Selections were taken on the basis of high favourable percentages which will be further explained later, and out of the 21 selections, 14 were correct = 66.67%.So we will find out maybe if there is any leverage there for a possible system emerging.There is no download,follow the link and click on LAUNCH PREDICTOR then weekly predictions.The link is :- http://www.timesonline.co.uk/section/0,,7973,00.html Btw mods, no plug here, all in the interests of punting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted January 8, 2006 Share Posted January 8, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. :hope good luck, mate - should be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 8, 2006 Author Share Posted January 8, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... looking forward to some experimentation on this, first week definitely had possibilities.A bit of faith and a little scrutiny can work wonders Aliando.Thanks for calling in.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ... OK let's kick off with an arbitory percentage figure to check the the progress of Home and Away teams using the Times Newspaper Predictor and see how it goes after last Saturday's initial probe. I'll try 60% and over for home selections, and 50% and over for away selections and see how these go.So this week's selections highlighted on this basis are as follows:- HOMES. Arsenal 66.2 Derby County 64.7 Reading 74.1 Rochdale 65.8 Wycombe W 63.7 Inverness C T 65.5 Celtic 83.00 AWAYS. Hearts 62.2 Sheffield U 50.4 Chelsea 77.1 If anyone out there has any further thoughts on this, then by all means any feedback always welcome.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hey Merlin. I've had a look at the predictor and the matches that you have selected and the results which I get are different from yours. Have you changed any of the parameters? Which part of the predictor software are you using - 7 day prediction or game simulator? Using the 7 day predictor I get: Aston V 40.3% Liverpool 53.7% Reading 74.1% Rochdale 65.8% Inverness C T 65.5% Celtic 83.0% AWAYS. Southampton 41.3% Hearts 62.2% Sheffield U 50.4% Chelsea 77.1% Using the game simulator I get: Aston V 40% Liverpool 54% Reading 64% Rochdale 66% Inverness C T 65% Celtic 83% AWAYS. Southampton 41% Hearts 62% Sheffield U 50% Chelsea 77% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... Hi there DaveC and thanks for your comments.I have used the weekly predictor and not the simulator, but things have certainly changed since I noted the figures. I think they have also included some mid week games which were not there when I went in, so can only assume some readings have been altered for whatever reason. I see Derby County are now in 'the frame' and they were not there originally.Will amend all percentages quoted in due course.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... DaveC.....Now fully updated according to the figures now displayed on the Predictor.Due to the criteria I set initially, some teams are now at different ratings, whilst others have fallen below the levels quoted and have thus been dropped.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. merlin, do you know the profit / loss for the 21 games you tracked, or which ones you selected? i have done a bit of a study of the premiership using the fink tank at the times, and it proved to give a good yield. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... Hi Muppet good to hear from you again, been a while. I cannot give you any profit or loss figures but kept a note of the ones tracked, these were:- Arsenal,Blackburn R,Chelsea,Fulham,Aston V,Portsmouth,Liverpool,Man C, Newcastle U,Southampton T,Birmingham C,Wolves. I slipped up when I made the statement above, I had taken the 21 Cup games on the coupon and applied the criteria.The results were better than I quoted:- 10 correct 2 incorrect = 83.33% so better still.:rollin Hope this helps.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thought it might be interesting to compare systems for this weekends matches. As you may know I am running a trial of the Betting Genius software during January - (see thread http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=22746) and I have listed the home team percentages for the Times predictor (1st column) and Betting Genius (2nd column). I was hoping that some kind person would add the Michael Wray predictions into a 3rd column. At first glance it looks like around 60% of the predictions for the 2 systems are similar but there are some results that are quite different. Arsenal 66.2% - 68% Aston V 40.3% - 39% Blackburn 30% - 51% Charlton 48.4% - 49% Fulham 35.1% - 56% Liverpool 53.7% - 52% Man City 28.8% - 28% Portsmouth 39.8% - 47% Sunderland 7.3% - 4% Wigan 55% - 67% -------------------------------------------- Wolves 59.6% - 52% Brighton 24.8% - 16% Cardiff 43.6% - 46% Derby 64.7% - 53% Hull 33.7% - 36% Ipswich 25.6% - 20% Plymouth 38.1% - 42% Preston 59.1% - 30% QPR 32.6% - 33% Reading 74.1% - 72% Sheff Wed 29.1% - 45% ------------------------------------------- Bournemouth 52.9% - 49% Bradford 36% - 32% Bristol C 38.9% - 54% Doncaster 53.9% - 42% Gillingham 44% - 49% Hartlepool 46% - 36% Huddersfield 59.3% - 39% MK Dons 37.5% - 43% Notts For 48.9% - 55% Port Vale 26.8% - 22% Southend 45.7% - 30% Walsall 33.8% - 37% ------------------------------------------- Bury 57.5% - 50% Cheltenham 54.9% - 43% Chester 46.1% - 30% Darlington 43.3% - 45% Grimsby 60.2% - 58% Leyton Orient 32.4% - 34% Lincoln 59.2% - 45% Macclesfield 47.6% - 35% Rochdale 65.8% - 68% Rushden 29.3% - 31% Shrewsbury 35.3% - 36% Wycombe 63.7% - 64% ------------------------------------------- Celtic 83% - 58% Dunde Utd 53.8% - 38% Dunfermline 13.1% - 11% Hibernian 55.3% - 62% Inverness 65.5% - 51% Motherwell 27.4% - 42% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... Hi Muppet good to hear from you again, been a while. I cannot give you any profit or loss figures but kept a note of the ones tracked, these were:- Arsenal,Blackburn R,Chelsea,Fulham,Aston V,Portsmouth,Liverpool,Man C, Newcastle U,Southampton T,Birmingham C,Wolves. I slipped up when I made the statement above, I had taken the 21 Cup games on the coupon and applied the criteria.The results were better than I quoted:- 10 correct 2 incorrect = 83.33% so better still.:rollin Hope this helps.Cheers.;) cheers mate. i make that around a 25% yield on those FA cup games - i reckon that's high, but you could expect 5-15% on the premiership. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... once again impressive viewing figures you got there Muppet. Seems to give early indications of a possible successful system in the making.I did notice that the Euro scene is less impressive, as both Primera and Serie A Leagues had wrong sides in their respective divisions.I have outlined these in an e-mail to the Times newspaper customer services and I am awaiting a reply.This is only affected when using the Simulation and has nothing to do with the Predictor side of things, which I note has shots on goal built into it's criteria, most predictors don't appear to have this.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ... cannot edit a post created by you DaveC, so regret no third column. Just for curiousity I have used the Simulator for Euro matches Wednesday through to Sunday, just to see what this throws out.Here are the highlighted matches with their respective percentage:- Lyon 69.0 - WON Monaco 70.0 - DRAW Barcelona 80.0 Villarreal (A) 53.0 Inter Milan 83.0 Juventus 84.0 Livorno 62.0 A C Milan (A) 50.0 Paris St.Germain 62.0 St.Etienne 62.0 No idea how these will turn out as the Simulator was used, but interesting to find out how they do.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. looking forward to these with interest. this game's also sprung up: wycombe-notts county HOME 60.4% good luck mate. :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... hi there young Muppet, yeah I'm really up for these! If you note post number 4 you will note that Wycombe is mentioned already on there as a possible.Will be interesting to see just how these Euro turn out!:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. d'oh. sorry fella, didn't spot it. post 4 was written less than 24 hours ago, and now derby are 51.5% - so now don't qualify. strange?! yeah, euros start tomorrow night. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... can't honestly say just what is going on Muppet. Sometimes you click on and you get one set of percentages, and other times you click on, and you get another set.Something strange happening, and as you say, the last set of figures I got, Derby were out of the frame,Aston Villa and Liverpool were back in with a chance.Must be some stability somewhere.:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... can't honestly say just what is going on Muppet. Sometimes you click on and you get one set of percentages, and other times you click on, and you get another set.Something strange happening, and as you say, the last set of figures I got, Derby were out of the frame,Aston Villa and Liverpool were back in with a chance.Must be some stability somewhere.:unsure Is it a monte carlo simulation? If so that won't neccesarily give the same results every time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... Hi there PaulM03. No the simulation feature is definitely not being used for British forecasts. It's unavoidable for the Euro, because this does not incorporate shots on target and so has to use the simulator.The Predictor is being used here, and there is a distinct feeling that something else has been incorporated as odd times there are differing ratings.Cannot put my finger on it yet, but will try and find out just why this is happening.Meanwhile I'll just have to go with what I have highlighted for this coming weekend.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi, Has anybody got any previous data on this predictor - are premiership matches more "predictable" than the championship or euro matches. Would a cut off of of 62% for home wins be more reliable than 60% ? I'm thinking of using this as a way of narrowing down selection for my own method as well as following this thread. TIA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 11, 2006 Author Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ... Hi Kanga. The short sharp answer is no as monitoring of this Times Newspaper Predictor has only just started, so we are in the unknown as far as being able to say just what Division is best and what cut-off point will give most winners.It's a case of trial and error and that's why we have kicked off with 60% for homes, and 50% for aways, we may gradually see in time what cut off points should be used to achieve a fairly good success rate, if any.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. i have data for epl 2004-5 season and the data up until dec for this season. by varying h% and a%, the number of games selected obviosly varies, and so alters the level of significance of the results. obviosly the staking system affects yield too. i used a level 1 unit stake. eg looking at all data (aug 2004 - dec 2005 or 547 games) H 60;A 50 wins140bets210strike66.7%yield8.7% varying H values, keeping A constant: H80 A50 wins72bets102strike70.6%yield17.0% H75 A50 wins84bets120strike70.0%yield12.6% H70 A50 wins97bets139strike69.8%yield11.6% H65 A50 wins122bets176strike69.3%yield11.3% H60 A50 wins140bets210strike66.7%yield8.7% H55 A50 wins162bets254strike63.8%yield5.9% varying A, keeping H constant: H60 A 55 wins127bets187strike67.9%yield7.2% H60 A60 wins118bets174strike67.8%yield6.4% H60 A65 wins109bets158strike69.0%yield6.4% tried to use solver function in excel to find best values, but couldn't get it to work at the mo. remember this is epl only. hope it helps. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. just quickly looking at the results, H60 A50 doesn't look too bad, given it's over 210 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. in table form: H% A% yield% matches 80 50 17 102 75 50 12.6 120 70 50 11.6 139 65 50 11.3 176 60 50 8.7 210 55 50 5.9 254 60 55 7.2 187 60 60 6.4 174 60 65 6.4 158 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 11, 2006 Author Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... great stuff there Muppet, and very interesting tables you have just produced.Makes really interesting reading indeed, and my thanks for putting those forward.The current criteria of 60% Homes and 50% Aways does produces remarable figures for having been plucked off the top of my head as an initial benchmark.Wonder if it may be worthwhile to track the 80-50 also, the strike rate of 70.6% with a 17% yield really wets my appetite. I take it that these were stats only for English Premiership?;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. yeah, eng prem league only. i have nothing on the other leagues. the 80 50 does look good at a whopping 17% yield, from 102 matches. just out of interest, this 17 % yield breaks down as all of last season: wins53bets75strike70.67%yield17.8% this season up to christmas: win19bets27strike70.4%yield14.6% ...so profitable in both seasons (i.e. it didn't peak early then tail off, relying on early glory) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Excellent stuff there Muppet - I love figures !! - LOL Interesting that the away results actually decreases the yield as the away % get higher. I may just stick to the home wins - If it isnt too much trouble and out of curiosity what would the home 60% and away 45% results be ? Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 11, 2006 Author Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... may not actually be the away results that is bringing down the percentage yield as the criteria % is raised Kanga.Muppets results include both home and away, so could be the homes which is affecting the yield.:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 11, 2006 Author Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... Interesting to see that it does not look to be a one season wonder Muppet. The strike rate and yield appear to be near enough similar, so at this point looks to be quite an encouraging trait!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Sorry Merlin - I dont understand what you are saying please can you explain this to my simple mind - the home% stays the same and the away% increases - so the number of home selections (and results) would be the same but the number of away selections would decrease (as in theory would their odds) - it appears to me that the away selections at low odds don't pull their weight and have a negative effect on the yield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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