merlin Posted March 28, 2006 Author Share Posted March 28, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... what's happened to Preston N E I cannot see them appearing on Betfair markets for tonight? Are they still playing tonight?;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 28, 2006 Share Posted March 28, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Merlin, It's on there - soccer fixtures - 28th March below the Burnley v Southanmpton match :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted March 28, 2006 Share Posted March 28, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Stil being quoted @ Betfair, Merlin. I have noticed that to view all of the markets on Betfair you sometimes need to refresh your browser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. 2 nice winners last night for us :- ChampionshipTPBGMWResultsBurnley v Southampton33.0%60%1-11-1Preston v Crewe53.8%65%2-01-0:clap League 1TPBGMWResultsM K Dons v Brentford39.9%56%2-10-1 League 2TPBGMWResultsCarlisle v Lincoln City60%52%3-21-0:clap Rochdale v Barnet52.1%25%1-10-0 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Only 1 selection for tonight, although Boston come mighty close :- DatePremiershipTPBGMWOdds 29/03/06Man Utd v West Ham87.1%61%3-11.28:hope DateChampionshipTPBGMWOdds29/03/06QPR v Stoke30.3%38%0-0 DateLeague 2TPBGMWOdds29/03/06Boston Utd v Chester47.2%59%2-0 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. And another one puts money back into the pot :- PremiershipTPBGMWOddsMan Utd v West Ham87.1%61%3-11-0:clap ChampionshipTPBGMWOddsQPR v Stoke30.3%38%0-01-2 League 2TPBGMWOddsBoston Utd v Chester47.2%59%2-01-3 I'm glad Boston didn't quite make it :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. No selections out of tonight's matches :- DateChampionshipTPBGMWOdds31/03/06Crystal Palace v Watford38.5%33%1-2 DateLeague 1TPBGMWOdds31/03/06Hartlepool v Oldham39.5%33%1-231/03/06Tranmere v Port Vale52.3%31%1-1 Will post up Saturday's selection later :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azulgrana Posted April 1, 2006 Share Posted April 1, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Kanga, jusy wondering, so your system is to lay the away team? The three prdictors you use, were they created by yourself? I would like to access them if i am allowed?...:notworthy i would like to trial it out on the Spanish league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted April 1, 2006 Share Posted April 1, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. A few setbacks this week I see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted April 2, 2006 Share Posted April 2, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Kanga, jusy wondering, so your system is to lay the away team? The three prdictors you use, were they created by yourself? I would like to access them if i am allowed?...:notworthy i would like to trial it out on the Spanish league. Hi, Sorry for the delay in replying - I would recommend you read through the thread from the start so you get an idea of how it works. TP is the times predictor is free and can be reached from :- http://www.timesonline.co.uk/section/0,,7973,00.html BG = Betting Genius and is a paid program but can be used on a free months trial :- http://www.bettinggenius.com/ MW - is run from spreadsheets that you update yourself also free and can be downloaded from here :- http://www.michaelwray.co.nz/sheets.html The trouble is it won't work on the spanish league as TP is only available for the top 4 English Leagues - BG & MW would work though and you could try and find a substitute for TP. Cheers Kanga Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted April 4, 2006 Share Posted April 4, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. It's all gone quiet - must say I've been dissappointed in these last 3 weeks results - no midweek qualifiers so I didnt post them - I'll be back later with the weekends selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted April 6, 2006 Share Posted April 6, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. hi kanga. doh... unlucky last week for the lay strategy with only one draw :( must admit i've not yet got on (mainly simply because i come up with too many selections myself so have no cash left :lol) but think i will do this weekend. i'm quite tempted by the cover the draw strategy. am i right in saying your system stats are using bet365 odds for the draw / home win? - not that im saying you should change the way you're recording, whats the point if you're laying, just the answer will help me decide what strategy i want to take. 365 often come up with the best draw odds for the UK games but rarely seem to come up with the best home win odds (at least for my selections). sorry yet to get round to my trawl back through the odds archive to see the effect of using best odds. i expect the three strategies will be pretty even in the long run. i'm going to be starting to look at a new footyforecast based system this weekend, if the results turn out to be particularly good (or bad) for the rest of the seaon ill let you know. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted April 6, 2006 Share Posted April 6, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. 365 often come up with the best draw odds for the UK games but rarely seem to come up with the best home win odds (at least for my selections).Definately must be just for your selections, as I find bet365 to be consistently the best value on home team to win prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted April 6, 2006 Share Posted April 6, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi SBI, I publish the 3 staking methods really because I've been asked to - it's always nice to see the single win figures - Myself and others prefer to "Lay the Away" ( I believe the odds are slightly better ) - but a number of followers don't like the idea of having so much liability for laying and have asked for a similar bet but by backing (there is double chance but the odds are very stingy) so I publish the cover the stake with the draw bank as well. The trouble with covering the draw on a hot favourite selection is that sometimes the return is just a few pence as the odds are so bad - In the past there has been a winner that returned a loss !! I have been thinking about just backing the winner if the odds are below 1.4 and covering the draw between 1.40 - 2.00 but it starts getting mighty complex. Let's hope for a better weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted April 7, 2006 Share Posted April 7, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Kanga, we can't have a good week every week, I'm sure that it will come good and remember the old saying "as long as it was the right bet we will always get from time to time the wrong result". Keep thee pecker up Cheers LL :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted April 7, 2006 Share Posted April 7, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks LL, For the last 3 weeks results have underperformed the rest of the season and we have had a greater number of losers in the 48 & 49% TP range than expected. Initially the idea was to get a good number of winning selections but as staking methods have altered and the number of selections needed less so - it is imperitive to find winners and cut out the silly loses - so I propose that from now on the cut-off point is 50% rather than 48% - not just because it's a nice round number but for the reasons above. So the tables below reflect the change in policy - if anybody wishes to carry on with the > 48% method they are there to be seen. Any thoughts welcome !! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. hi kanga. - just posted on another thread about how my entirely statistical approach (and others i know with similar methods) have been performing badly in recent weeks too. ie there's been a disproportionate number of 'surprises'. so, i wouldnt worry about fiddling too much, if at all. there's enough of a buffer of profit to be able to absorb the bad patch until things turn round. look like perhaps this weekends results would have turned a small profit for the fixed liability layers so hopefully the tide has turned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted April 10, 2006 Share Posted April 10, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks SBI, I'll keep monitoring the situation - hopefully as you say the tide has turned it wasnt a bad week really - Oldham losing and Mansfield's last minute equaliser was uncalled for though. 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss DateSelectionsTPBGMWOdds08/04/06Tottenham v Man City54.3%72%2-12-1:clap 08/04/06Wolves v Coventry56.9%60%3-22-2:clap 08/04/06Oldham v M K Dons64.8%77%3-01-2:wall 08/04/06Southend v Blackpool51.5%72%3-02-1:clap 08/04/06Carlisle v Grimsby60.1%61%3-01-0:clap 08/04/06Lincoln City v Mansfield50.5%53%3-11-1:clap 09/04/06Chelsea v West Ham89.0%68%3-14-1:clap 09/04/06Liverpool v Bolton74.9%67%3-11-0:clap 09/04/06Watford v Luton58.7%55%3-21-1:clap :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted April 14, 2006 Share Posted April 14, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Sorry for the late posting very busy at the moment :- DatePremiershipTPBGMWOdds14/04/06Man Utd v Sunderland87.5%77%3-01.10 :hope Rubbish odds but a selection - my suggestion would be to lay the draw :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted April 19, 2006 Author Share Posted April 19, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pralque Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. thanks for all the good effort you are putting into this guys, much appreciated, best of luck as always. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ... thanks pralque, looks like we have two winners and a draw from the three matches played so far today.Will report again when all the results are to hand.Cheers.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted April 23, 2006 Author Share Posted April 23, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Nice picks for the weekend. Shame on Southend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted April 23, 2006 Author Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... nice to see you popping in David, been a while since we last saw you here.Yeah, a reasonable weekend indeed, would have been a full house had Southend obliged.We have tightened some of the limits since you were last here,I believe that there were too many selections being churned out,so maybe next season we will keep the current method and hopefully make it more accurate.Cheers.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. I still drop in often merlin, been quite busy! Good luck for the rest of the season and a nice start for Durham in the County Championship too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted April 23, 2006 Author Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... are you a cricket supporter then David? I'll be down at Riverside on Wednesday coming for the start of the Lancashire county match. Great performance against Kent and we were still missing two of our strike bowlers in Michael Lewis the Aussie, and Mark Davies who is an up and coming young bowler when fit,but been out injured for the back part of last season, and broke down again recently in practice.Great to see two local lads Muchall and Mustard get among the runs.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. I used to live up there and used to pop along to the Riverside now and then especially when my side paid a visit, Somerset. Don't ask why a Welshman supports Somerset! Ok, It's because when I was growing up I loved Ian Botham and supported Somerset from the early 80's till now! Best day out was at the C&G Final when we beat Leics and in the evening England beat Germany 5-1, not that me and my mate can remember too much after an afternoon on the scrumpy! Off to a few games down here watching Somerset at the Oval, Guildford and Northampton. Eng v Sri Lanka ODI at the Oval and Eng v Pak Saturday test match at Headingley. Good luck for the season, don't mind Durham as you say, you have some great young players coming through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted April 24, 2006 Author Share Posted April 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ... ah! So youv'e been to Riverside! What did you think of the ground then David?We have a test match next year v West Indies, but the one we really wanted, was an Ashes series, which apparently has gone to your lot in Wales at Sophia Gardens.Seen Somerset a few times up here, and even your idol Botham played one season in the early days for us, just before he finished.Maybe we may be able to compete this year in Division One, had the very first year there,then went down.I note that Surrey are down there now having a spell.Anyway enjoy your outings young fella and no doubt you will be having a few beers in the process.Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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