Kanga Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Sbi, Welcome to the thread and thanks for the kind words - I know from reading your own threads that you're a professional punter so it's a big compliment to have you give the thumbs up. I've tried to level the playing field in comparing the staking plans - the win only and cover the draw are 1 point stakes and the lay the away is to a fixed 1 point liability - I thought this was the fairest way to compare all 3 of the methods. Total selections so far have been 97 - the box refered to above shows the results after 96 selections - strike rate is 91%. Just finalising the table for this weekend - back later :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Just had a quick look at the footyforecast site and the results published look good - around 7 selections per week. For the last 9 weeks ( the length of our method ) profits have made little headway and last week was bad for them as well - I'm not knocking their success but taking heart that we have done so well :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. hi, good news that the laying figures are for a fixed point liability, i'll be on this weekend ;) ff got off to a really good start this season and then have tailed off. i have noticed this happening with a few tipster services (and my own results :sad) in the past 3-4 weeks. most likely explanation is that a lot of the systems are using pretty much the same information and methods, just with different weighting of the various aspects. one strange thing about the footyforecast picks is that they are not necessarily 'bankers' according to their 7 systems. in the few weekends I have observed the selections where every one of their systems predicts the same result, they seem to have done well (they analyse every match in most of the european leagues, not just provide the 4-7 picks). an excessive number of draws are predicted, but i guess that means that the homes will have had to perform very well in their systems. i think the strength of your system is the need for consensus among all of the three individual systems. the consideration of another (which i have yet to analyse in detail to see if it is profitable long term or at least not losing money) might be overkill and of no benefit. in any case it's very likely that footyforecast will not disagree with any because of them all being based on similar things. i'll have a sift through their archive to find your losing selections and see if ff would have supported the selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. found a summary of their tips performance. Percentage of predicted home wins which were correct were 68, 52, 44 and 38% for the epl, champ, L1 & L2 respectively. so, in summary it's not very good for english football, L1 & L2 are its worst leagues for homes. best avoided. my two cents would be that i would consider avoiding laying any team that had won their last match. going back through your results as far as i could with my RFO last six results, i found that this would have avoided two of your defeats and not have avoided three. clearly that's not nearly enough info but it is something to consider. though of course it would have taken out a couple of the winners too (i found two but have not checked them all). the reason i say this is that IMO these predictors do not account sufficiently for short run form. i'll keep a track of this from now on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Sbi - Thanks for all the work you've put in - personally I think 3 predictors is the perfect amount. I'm very happy with the way TP & BG are often wildly different in their %'s but producing similar amounts of winning results and the MW spreadsheets works well in conjunction with them as a final filter. I agree that L1 & L2 are difficult leagues to predict - when I was running numerous combinations of back tests on BG - I just could not get the results to equal the Prem or Champ leagues and yet these leagues still perform well in the system and it would reduce selections if stricking to the aforementioned. Fingers crossed for a good weekend for some reason it seems to work best on alternate weeks - I know FF has found this with his stats as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Sbi - Thanks for all the work you've put in - personally I think 3 predictors is the perfect amount. Agree .... any more and 'dilution' starts to kick-in!! If you start adding more sources of information, you'll end up finding that none of them agree and you won't be making any bets. Yes, it's nice to try and increase the Strike-Rate but it'll only be by a couple of percent ..... 'n you ain't gonna win 'em all :tongue2 . I found that 3 'tipsters' was the best number when I developed my '3 Tipsters System' http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=25908. The 'LAY the AWAYS' success on this thread made me look at this type of betting more closely, and so far I've been 100% successful using a system I'm developing, but it's early days yet, but this weekend is the test .... I've placed 18 'LAY the AWAY' bets so far for this Saturday, with a possible extra 2 in the evening ................. wish me luck!!:hope :hope :hope :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. don't get me wrong i have no wish to see it included, especially after looking into the results of FF at more detail. things are going fine as they are. just thought i'd point it out as another predictor doing a reasonable job. as TF says, you could end up with less selections, or of greater concern to me would be that you'd only be left with the 'obvious' picks and be at greater risk of poor value selections that the masses are betting on. anyhows i'll still be keeping a tab on the previous result of the away lays, recent confidence is a big factor IMO :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Funnily enough I've considered back testing the change of the MW column with an FF column - trouble is I don't have all the past numbers and it would take me way more time than I have at present. As you say 91% isn't bad and would be hard to improve on and we would never get to 100% but 95% would be nice - LOL Muppet is that something your computer programming skills would be able to check easily ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Yes that the problem I'm finding in looking for "value" bets. It is very difficult to get 3 methods to indicate value on the same selection. Last week no bets were found. I expect I may need to refine my method to any one of the two back up methods indicating value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. They tie up nicely overall with my qualifiers so looking good!:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Was thinking the same thing FF - especially the MW 3-0 selections - they match up exactly with your upper 40+ ratings. :hope for a good one !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. thanks for the selections kanga. one annoyance with the footyforecast results is that it is not possible to access an archive of this season's tips (even for members). it only shows last week's results and this week's selections. a full archive of last season is available (so i assume at the end of this season the same will be available) - might as well leave it till then to look back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hope they all come in for you Kanga bar the last one for obvious reasons! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks David always glad of your support :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. just so its down here before the matches i thought i'd run through and identify the fixtures with possible short run (last match)form issues, perhaps i'll do this for all from now on to see if it can pick out any of the losses (or draws) in case there is an improvement which can be made for next season. if you'd prefer i didnt clutter the thread dont worry ill just put it down in excel or something. selections where away team won last match: villa, liverpool, wolves, forest, oldham, carlisle selections where home team lost last match: preston, brentford, southend selections where neither home team lost last match or away team won last match: man united, watford, wrexham chelsea i'm not sure where to put due to a league defeat but cup victory. i would normally expect far more selections in the last category. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 25, 2006 Share Posted March 25, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hey TF - Good luck with you system :hope Keep us informed - knowledge is power and all that stuff :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted March 25, 2006 Share Posted March 25, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Kanga, Update & results of Saturday 25th selections .... 20 possible selections, placed bets on 18, plus caught 1 extra in the evening, missed an evening one (and it wasn't In-Play). Won 17 Lost 2. All 20 Saturday Selections were : Leeds United - Stoke CityWatford - Millwall FCWolverhampton Wanderers - Sheffield WednesdayNottingham Forest - Milton Keynes DonsSouthend United - Hartlepool UnitedCarlisle United - Boston UnitedCheltenham Town - Rushden & DiamondsChelsea London FC - Manchester CityCatania Calcio - TernanaAtalanta Bergamo - Vicenza CalcioMantova - AvellinoSaint Mirren - Airdrie UnitedBerwick Rangers - Albion RoversCowdenbeath - ArbroathElgin City - East StirlingStenhousemuir - MontroseGlasgow Rangers - Dunfermline AthleticRoda Kerkrade - Roosendaal RBCBenfica Lisbon - Sporting BragaAC Milan - Fiorentina AC Sundays 'LAY the AWAY' selections (16): Velez Sarsfield Buenos Aires - Arsenal-ARG1VfB Stuttgart B - 1.FC Kaiserslautern BAEK Athens - Akratitos LiosionPalermo US - TrevisoSiena AC - Lecce USCittadella Padova - FermanaGenoa FC - San MarinoTeramo Calcio - PizzighettoneFeyenoord Rotterdam - ADO Den HaagUtrecht FC - Heracles AlmeloAjax Amsterdam - Breda NACSporting Lisbon - PenafielBeira Mar SC - Portimonense SCGrasshoppers Zurich - Schaffhausen FCLa Chaux-de-Fonds FC - Kriens SCFenerbahce Istanbul - Malatyaspor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dai Posted March 25, 2006 Share Posted March 25, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. :wall Thats it for me for this system until next season. Started it last week, lost a nice amount, did it this week, lost another nice amount. Just too unpredictable at this stage of the season.:cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 25, 2006 Share Posted March 25, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Dai - That's not good news mate - which selections did you pick, all of them or a select few. The 4 losses last week and the 3 this, aren't good or expected - but your losses shouldn't be that great - 1 loser wipes out 4 winners using the "Lay the away" method - the problem is the unlucky time that you started. As said above (and you rightly stated) we are entering unknown territory - but I still believe that we have the advantages on our side with the draw being covered. Keep looking in ..... we will prevail ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dai Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. I layed them all off for £2 each. For example, just Millwall winning screwed it up. I layed them off for £2 at odds of 8.6. Thats around 15 quid straight away. Then Sheff Wed won, when I layed them at 7.8. Another 13 quid. Thats off the top of my head, but as you said, there was another loser, so thats another bit off. Even all the other winners didnt cover it, mind. Not to moan, though. Its a proven system, but its not worth picking up now until next season methinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Dai - Sorry to hear Mate. What I should have made clear(er) it that we lay to a fixed liability - so set the liability to 1 point and the amount staked will be variable - therefore it evens out the losses. Otherwise, as you say, a short price favourite losing and it really hurts the bank. Keep looking in I am still confident that we will get some more good results up to the end of the season - I'm more unsure of how it will work at the start of next !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. looks like a better week for the home backers than the away layers (much like a new away lays system i tried this weekend which gave five home wins and 4 aways, no draws :wall no more laying for me) i'd be interested to see the difference in the home wins return if you had used best odds rather than bet365 odds (if that's what you're still using?). I reckon you could get this close to the away lays figure with multiple bookies, if not better. might take a sample week and check it out. one thing i dont like about laying is that betfair pretty much has a monopoly, you just have to take what odds are given to you. PS record this week for selections that had lost their last match or the away team had won their last match is 5 wins 2 draws 2 losses. record for others was 3 wins one loss (although this includes Chelsea who i wasnt sure how to classify due to cup game). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Sbi, 8 straight wins 2 draws and 3 losses - the home win only produced a 1 point loss this week only slightly better than the other 2 methods. I'll put up the tables later for comparison. One thing I have noticed is that the Watford & Wolves losing matches were against relegation strugglers who simply outperformed themselves. I don't know whether in the closing weeks it would prove adviseable to avoid selecting matches against teams in the relegation battle - the trouble is that it doing this would have also avoided 5 clear winners - but then 1 loser is equal to 4 winners so may be worth comtemplating. Any thoughts people ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. hi kanga. i dont think it's a good idea to exclude relegation battlers unless they're in good short term form. most of the home teams are likely to still have something to play for. sheff wed & doncaster didnt surprise me too much due to recent form, the watford resultwas a big surprise but from what i could tell watford dominated the game up until the first goal, so i think that can just be put down to luck. think there might be any mileage in a mixed staking system of say back the win when tp > 70% and lay the away under? (wouldnt have been better this week but i'm thining is there really much point in laying the away vs chelsea at home, the odds must be very short?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. If the odds are so short on say a Chelsea match - I have layed the draw in the past ;) (proved to be lucky with fulham) odds are much more friendly. The shorter price teams do tend to win Man Utd at the weekend was another example - but I don't count these personal touches in the system figures :loon I guess that's why people have asked to have all the complete tables published as they all use them slighly differently :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. No Monday match as TP aren't quoting figures for Spurs :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 28, 2006 Share Posted March 28, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Profits of each method after the weekends results :- Home Win only Cover the Draw Lay the Away 63% Strike Rate89% Strike Rate 89% Strike Rate 2.32% Yield5.04% yield9.12% Yield2.57 Points Profit 5.59 Points 10.13 Points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 28, 2006 Share Posted March 28, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Selections for tonight :- DateChampionshipTPBGMWOdds28/03/06Burnley v Southampton33.0%60%1-1 28/03/06Preston v Crewe53.8%65%2-01.53:hope DateLeague 1TPBGMWOdds28/03/06M K Dons v Brentford39.9%56%2-1 DateLeague 2TPBGMWOdds28/03/06Carlisle v Lincoln City60%52%3-21.66:hope 28/03/06Rochdale v Barnet52.1%25%1-1 Again these link up amazingly with FF's selections :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted March 28, 2006 Share Posted March 28, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Still looking good, Kanga, keep it going! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 28, 2006 Share Posted March 28, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Again these link up amazingly with FF's selections :ok:hope :hope :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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