Racing Chat - Saturday 27th July

[azzybear]

dilawar 12.40 france

[harry_rag]

#	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	Silky Wilkie (IRE)	6	105.77	88.75
2	Ferrous (IRE)	9	103.07	70.79
3	Radio Goo Goo	9	102.72	62.86
4	Manila Scouse	21	101.93	104.06
5	Dapper Valley (IRE)	21	101.61	86.56
6	Dare To Hope (IRE)	13	100.74	24.67
7	Rage Of Bamby (IRE)	17	100.52	22.71
8	Trefor (IRE)	5	100.14	1.82
9	Korker (IRE)	15	99.60
10	Badri	13	98.09
11	International Girl (IRE)	26	98.04
12	Rock Opera	23	97.75
13	Bergerac (IRE)	17	96.83
14	Brazen Bolt	36	93.19

Bit of a "hmmm" reaction to this one. Nothing that clear on rating, top 8 fairly closely bunched. Not a lot of value either, just on the numbers. Manilla Scouse and Dapper Valley appeal as best value e/w plays though you'll struggle to get the 5th place at close to best price. I might try and refine the calculation for the value number as it feels to me that it's overstating the gap between the two 20/1 shots and I'm not sure the top rated merits quite such a high value number at 5/1. Might be just a case of the race being so close that it's skewed the numbers a bit but I'll give it some thought.

[The Equaliser]

Edited 4 hours ago by The Equaliser
explai

[The Equaliser]

2 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Difficulties copy/paste from Bet365.  Anyway, my attempt at the ratings races.  Tales of The Heart smashed into .  win bet only

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Newcastle 2.00

THE GLEN ROVERS

[azzybear]

Sunway 3.40

[harry_rag]

My first take of the races so far is that we didn't do too bad a job at Ascot but for York I'm not sure if they ran the race or just drew the finishing order out of a hat at random! 

Props to Zil and Topspeed who both had the winner in their top 3. It was bottom rated by the other 2 which just goes to show you don't always get a consensus. Let's hope Luxembourg can land the odds in the last one. I added Sunway 22/1 and Dubai Honour 30/1 (both e/w) based on today's prices moving the value numbers around a bit.

[Villa Chris]

That last race was ridiculous.  For a moment I thought it was ran over a 4 mile slog .

[Zilzalian]

Total waste of 150,000+ quid in that 4 runner race at York, Surely they can use that money better, the betting told you Passenger wasn't going to win. Talk about bringing racing into disrepute FFS.

[Villa Chris]

1 minute ago, Zilzalian said:

Total waste of 150,000+ quid in that 4 runner race at York, Surely they can use that money better, the betting told you Passenger wasn't going to win. Talk about bringing racing into disrepute FFS.

Don’t think I’ve ever seen a flat race start off so slow. Makes a mockery of the money and Group 2 status . 

[Zilzalian]

2 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Don’t think I’ve ever seen a flat race start off so slow. Makes a mockery of the money and Group 2 status . 

Well its everything that's wrong with English racing. Good prize money, a group 2, 4 runners producing a non race. blah blah blah. 4 jockeys that need "interviewing"

[Villa Chris]

2 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Well its everything that's wrong with English racing. Good prize money, a group 2, 4 runners producing a non race. blah blah blah. 4 jockeys that need "interviewing"

Yep learned nothing from that race apart from the fact it suited the only horse that had won over 6f so the sprint finish suited him. 

[Villa Chris]

Didn’t expect that 

[Zilzalian]

Now there is a head scratcher if there ever was one. the only thing that surprised me was why wasn't it 100/1?

[richard-westwood]

Well ......typically super competitive day ....some horses just didn't fire or started crap on  day .....but learnt a lot .......top 4 rated in all 5 races gave 

Top 4 rated has given 

1st 3rd

1st 2nd 

2nd 

1st  22/1 5th 

2nd 

....

My best friend had 3pts wins  on all top 3 ...his argument was you get best form horse and most likely the best value horse ......his outlay was 45 and has returned 91 so a profit of 46 PTS on the day ......so that might be a bet to follow as time goes on ......

[fd1972uk]

Well that turned out pretty poor, lol

 

[Zilzalian]

First time on fast ground that Goliath and looking at that race time I would never back against it in future races on that ground so if they go the breeders cup route and Meydan there may be good money to make because that was no fluke it was just too quick for them, they all didn't underperform that's for sure and that lot are pretty much the best we have got to be honest. Going to stick my neck out here and say the only thing i can see getting near it on that ground is wait for it........Passenger (at its best)

[Villa Chris]

6 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

First time on fast ground that Goliath and looking at that race time I would never back against it in future races on that ground so if they go the breeders cup route and Meydan there may be good money to make because that was no fluke it was just too quick for them, they all didn't underperform that's for sure and that lot are pretty much the best we have got to be honest. Going to stick my neck out here and say the only thing i can see getting near it on that ground is wait for it........Passenger (at its best)

It’s previous  race at Ascot was on Good/Firm where he finished a well beaten second. 

[MGC]

425 nc Barleybrown 9/2

[Zilzalian]

9 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

It’s previous  race at Ascot was on Good/Firm where he finished a well beaten second. 

If you watch the hardwick race again i suspect you might change your mind a tad, keep your eye on goliath "thru the race"

[MGC]

435 y Brasil Power 22s ew

[LeMale]

25 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

First time on fast ground that Goliath and looking at that race time I would never back against it in future races on that ground so if they go the breeders cup route and Meydan there may be good money to make because that was no fluke it was just too quick for them, they all didn't underperform that's for sure and that lot are pretty much the best we have got to be honest. Going to stick my neck out here and say the only thing i can see getting near it on that ground is wait for it........Passenger (at its best)

It ran on g/f lto and came 2nd behind Isle Of Jura which i had backed for this race ante post at 66-1 and was gutted it was pulled out, so based on that, i went for it. 

[LeMale]

Just now, LeMale said:

It ran on g/f lto and came 2nd behind Isle Of Jura which i had backed for this race ante post at 66-1 and was gutted it was pulled out, so based on that, i went for it. 

I must learn to scroll down, sorry it's already been mentioned by Villa Chris. 

[Zilzalian]

34 minutes ago, LeMale said:

I must learn to scroll down, sorry it's already been mentioned by Villa Chris. 

I must admit because i was dealing with so many races my mistake (although i couldn't rate it near top anyway) i certainly didn't look as close as i usually do and i just don't go off speed figures for selecting horses, in retrospect i could have given it a squeak based on the Jura race so lesson learned. in this race Goliath earned a speed figure of 146 which is now top if i was to rate the same horses in a mythical same race in future. i think i have only 1 horse higher on speed and that's Passenger.