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Racing chat - Saturday 11th may

richard-westwood
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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

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Victoria cup 

Fantastic. Fox  8.6 12/1 

Hickory.  8.5 14/1 

Caragio.  8.3 22/1 

Incredibly hard cavalry charge as you can imagine .....bit weird that the computer has put these 3 a bit ahead of rest given the quality of the field but I'll roll with it for a bit if fun .....3x 5pt wins    6x rev forecasts  

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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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Ascot 1.30
Ascot kicks off the eight races on ITV today with a 1M 4F class 3 handicap with a field of fourteen. Gary & Josh Moore saddle their five year old Kotai who comes here chasing a hat trick following victories at Windsor and Salisbury on varying different ground conditions. His latest win at the latter course came only six days ago when he pulled 10L clear of his field. He has to shoulder a 5lb penalty today but he looks sure to go up more than that when re-assessed so is worth backing to get the hat trick up under Jason Watson who was in the saddle at Salisbury. Richard Hannon’s Great Bedwyn was a progressive sort when last seen back in June and if straight enough could be the most likely threat to the selection.
 
KOTARI 1 point win each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345
 
Lingfield 1.50
The first of four races covered by the ITV cameras at the Surrey track is this 1M 3 1/2F class 2 handicap. Roger Varian’s Aimeric looks the one to beat having won twice last season including first time out and although he’s up 6lb for his latest victory can be highly competitive. Ralph Beckett is getting going now and saddles his promising If Not Now who actually ran a 8 1/4L fifth in the Group 1 Germany Derby last Summer. He’s been gelded since last seen, when disappointing on soft ground at Doncaster and if tuned up can push Aimeric all the way but the pick today has to be Sheik Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum owned Frankel gelding.
 
AIMERIC 1 point win @ 5/2 William Hill
 
Ascot 2.05
Ten go to post for this 1M class 2 handicap run on the straight course. Cases can be made for plenty in a race in which the early show was 5/1 the field. Drying ground will be very much in favour of the Harry Charlton trained Zouzanna who found soft ground against on his last run which came at Newmarket last October. Charlton has his string in fine form winning with four of his last 12 runners at time of writing and he looks the pick. One to keep a close eye on is the Andrew Balding runner Topanga who is making his handicap debut on only her fourth ever start having finished fifth in the Group 3 Fred Draling Stakes at Newbury last time. As a three year old she receives a healthy 13lb age allowance and is worth a small stakes saver.
 
ZOUZANNA 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123
TOPANGA 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 123
 
Lingfield 2.25
Seven three year old fillies line up for this 1M 3 1/2F listed William Hill Oaks Trial which has a rather open look about it despite John & Thady Gosden having a warm favourite in the shape of Danielle. She bolted up at 4/7 in an ordinary 1M 2F novices stakes at Wetherby last time on soft ground. Today’s ground will be markedly drier and her previous form when runner up to Godolphin filly Winter Snowfall was let down when that one flopped in the Pretty Polly at Newmarket last weekend. She may well win but looks poor value to me and I’m against her. Ralph Beckett, who took the Oaks trial at Chester in the week, saddles a brace of promising fillies in Treasure and You Got Me and I’ll chance the latter who may have found the heavy ground against her when flopping in a listed race at Newmarket last November. Hector Crouch retains the ride and looks each way value with the firms paying three places against the warm favourite.
 
YOU GOT TO ME 1 point each way @ 11/2 Betfred 1/5th 123
 
Ascot 2.40
A bumper field of twenty three run in this 7F class 2 Victoria Cup. The stalls will be positioned in the centre of the straight course and it’s hard to evaluate where the best place to be (last year the winner came from low numbers on the far side but more times than not its the stand side and high numbers that have the call). As you would expect there are plenty in with a chance here but my shortlist includes The Wizard Of Eye who has been gelded since last seen and has joined Charlie Fellowes from Stan Moore. He has spent the majority of his career with Moore running in pattern company and has only raced in handicap company twice in his life when sixth in the Golden Mile at Goodwood last summer and fifth (of 10) in the Shergar Cup Mile a week later. He’s 4lb lower now. My main fancy though is the David O’Meara trained Pearle D’or who won here and at Newbury last season and teed up for the season with a tenth of 15 in a warm Newmarket handicap won by Poet Master at the Craven meeting when not knocked about. Sure to have befitted from that outing he can run well today for O’Meara who was mentioned this race as an early season target in a stable tour in the Racing Post three weeks ago.
 
PEARLE d’OR 1 point each way @ 10/1 Coral 1/5th 12345
THE WIZARD OF EYE 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 Coral 1/5th 12345
 
Lingfield 3.00
Nine three year old colts have declared for the listed 1M 3 1/2F William Hill Lingfield Derby Trial. Aidan O’Brien sends over a brace of runners in the shape of Illinois, the mount of Ryan Moore and The Euphrates (Declan McDonagh). Both ran in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown a month ago on heavy ground with the latter finishing 2 1/4L ahead of his stablemate despite Illinois going off a very well backed 8/11 favourite. It will be no shock if the tables were tuned today on better ground and he should go very close. I prefer the Roger Varian trained Defiance however who showed he was a horse going the right way when he finished runner up in the Epsom Derby trial last month to Bellum Justum (the re-opposing Arabic Legend 2L behind). Sure to have benefited from that run he can take this and put himself in with a shout for the big race next month.
 
DEFIANCE 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365
 
Haydock 3.15
The day’s big jumps race is the 1M 7F 144 yard Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle which has attracted a maximum field of seventeen runners. A very warm favourite is the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle winner Lark In The Mornin who has to deal with a 8lb rise in the weights and significantly drier conditions. He may well be better on this type of surface but I’m not keen to take under 2/1 to find out and I’ll be looking to get him beat with an each way play. Sheena West’s Mr Freedom is a a decent outsider in my book but I like the look of the Cheltenham form from last month when Tintintin beat Rare Middleton a neck on similar ground as today’s. The latter is one pound better off and there shouldn’t be much between them with professional jockeys taking over on both from the conditionals that rode them that day. Last year’s runner up Teddy Blue isn’t running well but has fallen down to an interesting mark and is a good outsider. I’ll take the regal O’Brien horse Tintintin to confirm form with rare Middleton and back him each way.
 
TINTINTIN 1 point each way @ 12/1 Betfred 1/5th 12345
 
Lingfield 3.35
Nine fillies run in this 7F Group 3 William Hill Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes with a hot favourite in the shape of Ralph Beckett’s Remarquee who brings the best form to the table. A winner first time up last season in the Fred Darling at Newbury she went on to run the great Tahiyra to a length in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and backed that up with two other good runs in Group 1’s the following month. She’s been off since and had her wind tinkered with but she will be hard to beat and is the selection under James Doyle. The biggest threat to her may come from the three year old Great Generation trained at Newmarket by Marco Botti who’s re-appearance fourth in a Group 3 at Deauville has been doubly boosted since by the runner up and third from that day finishing 2nd and 3rd in the 1000 Guineas last weekend.
 
REMARQUEE 2 points win @ 6/5 William Hill
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yossa6133

yossa6133

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Posted (edited)

Pull Again Green 1:35 Haydock (10/1 Bet365). Backed last time when I thought it was likely a prep run for fences but ran really well, traveled very sweetly and just got tired on the run in. Should be spot on now and 6lb turn around with Zain Nights should be enough to reverse placings with that one.

 

scratch that, I've cashed out and will do it e/w with 6 places, makes more sense.

Edited by yossa6133
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black rabbit

black rabbit

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Nibiru                                      -3 15 Hyd                       1/40th of a pt ew    28/1

Bless Him                                -2 40 Asc                        1/40th of a pt ew   40/1          - 3rd

Bold Endeavour                     -1 35 Hyd                       1/40th of a pt ew   20/1

Arabian Storm                        -2 40 Asc                       1/40th of a pt ew    18/1

Edited by black rabbit
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Systemight

Systemight

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A 2/1 Winner from 3 Selections Yesterday,but a rule 4 on the winner meant a minimal loss.

Just the two for today(strangely very topical) -off to Leicester Later..

Today's Selections:

17.35  Warwick  Time For A Pint  (9/4 Vic)

18.55 Leicester  Alseeyerthere  (7/2 Fred)

 

Sel/Wins 5/1  Strike Rate 20%  P/L -2.20

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yossa6133

yossa6133

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Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Pull Again Green 1:35 Haydock (10/1 Bet365). Backed last time when I thought it was likely a prep run for fences but ran really well, traveled very sweetly and just got tired on the run in. Should be spot on now and 6lb turn around with Zain Nights should be enough to reverse placings with that one.

 

scratch that, I've cashed out and will do it e/w with 6 places, makes more sense.

I don't understand the massive drift on this one at all, looks set for a good run to my eyes. Wanted 6 places but bet365 are 11 points bigger than Skybet so will settle for top 5.

 

1pt e/w 25/1 Bet365

 

Rubbish, managed to get beat further by the fav 6lb better off.

 

P/L: -13.3pts.

Edited by yossa6133
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