Racing Chat - Wednesday 8th May

[The Brigadier]

1.30 Chester

The first of five races from Chester covered by the ITV cameras is this 6F class 3 three year old handicap in which as we all well know it pays to be draw low on this turning track. The last seven winners have been drawn 1,2,6,4,5 1, 5 and it’s easy to dismiss those drawn 7 or upwards on that account only. Tom Dascombe’s Old Chums is interesting from stall 2 as he arrives fit from a decent all-weather winter campaign but it’s the horse in the plum draw of 1, Beyond Borders that stands out as a good each way bet here. Karl Burke’s sprinter won four of his seven starts as a juvenile and although his recent run may have looked a tad disappointing at the time when you delve deeper into the form we can see it was a fair effort. He finished 6 1/2L runner up to Clive Cox’s improver Jame’s Delight who has gone on to win a class 2 handicap at Newmarket via a tilt at the Greenham Stakes. He’s now rated 9lb higher although that will increase when his latest success is taken into account. The third Bellarchi has won and placed 2nd since and is now 5lb higher whilst the fifth has also won since and is now 5lb higher. The selection has been dropped a pound for that run which came on heavy ground and he looks likely to be better served by better ground here and can run a blinder from the plum draw.

 

BEYOND BORDERS 1 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

BEYOND BORDERS & DUE FOR LUCK (2.35) 1/4 point each way double 10/1 & 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234 both races.

 

Chester 2.05

Eleven juvenile fillies line up for the 5F Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes. George Boughey’s Night In Paris can run well but drawn nine of 9 is not a positive and a close eye must be kept on the two newcomers from local trainer Hugo Palmer in Arabian Cobar and Herecomesthebear who cost 60,000 guineas and 65,000 guineas respectively. In a tricky contest the pick however is Tom Dascombe’s Seraphim Angel who showed promise on her racecourse debut when fourth in a Newmarket fillies maiden at the Craven meeting. That form is yet to really be tested although the seventh (2L behind the selection) has finished runner up at Kempton since. Stall 6 should be ok and she can run well under Pierre-Louis Jamin.

 

SERAPHIM ANGEL 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Chester 2.35

Like the opener this is a tricky three year old handicap run over 5F which has attracted a maximum field of twelve. One that doesn’t appeal is the Tim Easterby trained Vince L’Amour who comes here chasing a hat trick but both those victories were gained in very soft ground and in lesser grade handicaps. Ed Bethell’s Kings Merchant is on the short list having bagged stall 1 and coming here in good form off of the all-weather winning his maiden at Wolverhampton in March from a dual winner since. This is his handicap debut and he can go well but the one I like is drawn alongside in stall 2 in John & Sean Quinn’s Due For Luck. He’s not been seen since October although was pulled out of a race at Thirsk 18 days ago due to soft ground but he did win first time out as a two year old by 2 1/2L. He should of won over course and distance last September when failing to get a run in going down by a head to Bazball. The Quinn’s were on the mark with the winner of the Thirsk Hunt Cup at the weekend and he appeals here each way from a tasty draw.

 

DUE FOR LUCK 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Chester 3.05

A field of nine line up for the listed Weatherbys E-Passport Cheshire Oaks, a trial for the Epsom Oaks. Aidan O’Brien has won five of the last eight renewals and saddles a brace here in Rubies Are Red and Port Fairy with Ryan Moore presumably picking the latter. She won a Dundalk maiden last time out and is hard to assess but is given plenty of respect. Ralph Beckett has yet to rally get going this season but did have an across the card double on Saturday so maybe he’s ready to spring into action now. He also saddles a brace of runners here in the shape of Seaward and Forest Fairy with the latter the one that appeals the most. She ran out an impressive 6L winner at Wolverhampton back in February against the colts (which included a pair of very well bred expensive Godolphin colts) and with an Epsom Oaks and Ribblesdale entry could be anything. Rossa Ryan was on board that night in February and she’s the bet.

 

FOREST FAIRY 1 point win @ 11/4 BetVictor

 

Chester 3.40

The 1M 4 1/2F Group 3 Boodles Chester Vase has attracted a small field of just six but is an intriguing contest nonetheless. Aidan O’Brien has farmed this race over the last decade winning it seven times and is represented by the top rated Grosvenor Square and Agenda. The former looks the pick as he is ridden by Ryan Moore and he looks sure to go close although he has to prove himself on good ground as all three of his career starts have come on soft ground. Andrew Balding’s Cadogan Place beat the Charlie Appleby trained Hidden Law at Southwell 41 days ago by a short head with Hidden Law going on and impressively taking a novices stakes contest at Newbury. Preference would be for the Godolphin runner and at the prices is the selection here to turn the tables on Cadogan Place and upset the favourite Grosvenor Square.

 

HIDDEN LAW 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, The Brigadier said:

1.30 Chester

The first of five races from Chester covered by the ITV cameras is this 6F class 3 three year old handicap in which as we all well know it pays to be draw low on this turning track. The last seven winners have been drawn 1,2,6,4,5 1, 5 and it’s easy to dismiss those drawn 7 or upwards on that account only. Tom Dascombe’s Old Chums is interesting from stall 2 as he arrives fit from a decent all-weather winter campaign but it’s the horse in the plum draw of 1, Beyond Borders that stands out as a good each way bet here. Karl Burke’s sprinter won four of his seven starts as a juvenile and although his recent run may have looked a tad disappointing at the time when you delve deeper into the form we can see it was a fair effort. He finished 6 1/2L runner up to Clive Cox’s improver Jame’s Delight who has gone on to win a class 2 handicap at Newmarket via a tilt at the Greenham Stakes. He’s now rated 9lb higher although that will increase when his latest success is taken into account. The third Bellarchi has won and placed 2nd since and is now 5lb higher whilst the fifth has also won since and is now 5lb higher. The selection has been dropped a pound for that run which came on heavy ground and he looks likely to be better served by better ground here and can run a blinder from the plum draw.

 

BEYOND BORDERS 1 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

BEYOND BORDERS & DUE FOR LUCK (2.35) 1/4 point each way double 10/1 & 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234 both races.

 

Chester 2.05

Eleven juvenile fillies line up for the 5F Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes. George Boughey’s Night In Paris can run well but drawn nine of 9 is not a positive and a close eye must be kept on the two newcomers from local trainer Hugo Palmer in Arabian Cobar and Herecomesthebear who cost 60,000 guineas and 65,000 guineas respectively. In a tricky contest the pick however is Tom Dascombe’s Seraphim Angel who showed promise on her racecourse debut when fourth in a Newmarket fillies maiden at the Craven meeting. That form is yet to really be tested although the seventh (2L behind the selection) has finished runner up at Kempton since. Stall 6 should be ok and she can run well under Pierre-Louis Jamin.

 

SERAPHIM ANGEL 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Chester 2.35

Like the opener this is a tricky three year old handicap run over 5F which has attracted a maximum field of twelve. One that doesn’t appeal is the Tim Easterby trained Vince L’Amour who comes here chasing a hat trick but both those victories were gained in very soft ground and in lesser grade handicaps. Ed Bethell’s Kings Merchant is on the short list having bagged stall 1 and coming here in good form off of the all-weather winning his maiden at Wolverhampton in March from a dual winner since. This is his handicap debut and he can go well but the one I like is drawn alongside in stall 2 in John & Sean Quinn’s Due For Luck. He’s not been seen since October although was pulled out of a race at Thirsk 18 days ago due to soft ground but he did win first time out as a two year old by 2 1/2L. He should of won over course and distance last September when failing to get a run in going down by a head to Bazball. The Quinn’s were on the mark with the winner of the Thirsk Hunt Cup at the weekend and he appeals here each way from a tasty draw.

 

DUE FOR LUCK 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Chester 3.05

A field of nine line up for the listed Weatherbys E-Passport Cheshire Oaks, a trial for the Epsom Oaks. Aidan O’Brien has won five of the last eight renewals and saddles a brace here in Rubies Are Red and Port Fairy with Ryan Moore presumably picking the latter. She won a Dundalk maiden last time out and is hard to assess but is given plenty of respect. Ralph Beckett has yet to rally get going this season but did have an across the card double on Saturday so maybe he’s ready to spring into action now. He also saddles a brace of runners here in the shape of Seaward and Forest Fairy with the latter the one that appeals the most. She ran out an impressive 6L winner at Wolverhampton back in February against the colts (which included a pair of very well bred expensive Godolphin colts) and with an Epsom Oaks and Ribblesdale entry could be anything. Rossa Ryan was on board that night in February and she’s the bet.

 

FOREST FAIRY 1 point win @ 11/4 BetVictor

 

Chester 3.40

The 1M 4 1/2F Group 3 Boodles Chester Vase has attracted a small field of just six but is an intriguing contest nonetheless. Aidan O’Brien has farmed this race over the last decade winning it seven times and is represented by the top rated Grosvenor Square and Agenda. The former looks the pick as he is ridden by Ryan Moore and he looks sure to go close although he has to prove himself on good ground as all three of his career starts have come on soft ground. Andrew Balding’s Cadogan Place beat the Charlie Appleby trained Hidden Law at Southwell 41 days ago by a short head with Hidden Law going on and impressively taking a novices stakes contest at Newbury. Preference would be for the Godolphin runner and at the prices is the selection here to turn the tables on Cadogan Place and upset the favourite Grosvenor Square.

 

HIDDEN LAW 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365

I just finished rating that 230 race and computer said .....DUE FOR LUCK was the value bet Ew so that's good enough for me ......5pt Ew 17/2 4 places .....good luck 🤞 

[The Brigadier]

13 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I just finished rating that 230 race and computer said .....DUE FOR LUCK was the value bet Ew so that's good enough for me ......5pt Ew 17/2 4 places .....good luck 🤞 

That's what i like to hear @richard-westwood 🫰

[richard-westwood]

140 Chester 

Auric. 8.6. 6/1 

Tsunami spirit. 8.4 11/1 bet

Old chums.  8.2 

3pt ew top 2 ....2pt Ew doubles with above race 

[ivans82]

Cheshire Oaks         Galileo Dame

Chester Vase           Hidden Law   ,  daisy cutting action should love track and ground  ,  days nap .

[black rabbit]

Macanudo                                                         1 30 Che/          1/40th of a pt ew     40/1

[richard-westwood]

6 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

140 Chester 

Auric. 8.6. 6/1 

Tsunami spirit. 8.4 11/1 bet

Old chums.  8.2 

3pt ew top 2 ....2pt Ew doubles with above race 

Auric ...is part owned by kyren Wilson ....is that an omen ??...🫣🫣🤔🤔

[DanV89]

2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Auric ...is part owned by kyren Wilson ....is that an omen ??...🫣🫣🤔🤔

Don’t know if you’ve noticed Richard but Auric also has collateral form with Due For Luck. A horse called South Shore was beaten half a length by DFL at Ripon last year. South Sure then beat Auric at Windsor two weeks ago. So if Auric goes well ill be topping up on DFL!!

[richard-westwood]

24 minutes ago, DanV89 said:

Don’t know if you’ve noticed Richard but Auric also has collateral form with Due For Luck. A horse called South Shore was beaten half a length by DFL at Ripon last year. South Sure then beat Auric at Windsor two weeks ago. So if Auric goes well ill be topping up on DFL!!

It's just the draw ....I think auric is in 8 ....that's normally a big no ....but I'm hoping he can get a fast start and run to his rating ......it's a big ask at Chester but not impossible 🤞

[Tedthewolf]

1 hour ago, DanV89 said:

Don’t know if you’ve noticed Richard but Auric also has collateral form with Due For Luck. A horse called South Shore was beaten half a length by DFL at Ripon last year. South Sure then beat Auric at Windsor two weeks ago. So if Auric goes well ill be topping up on DFL!!

Beyond Borders well ahead of South Shore  before he went on to win nto albeit on heavy going.

Edited May 7 by Tedthewolf

[Hotspur88]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

It's just the draw ....I think auric is in 8 ....that's normally a big no ....but I'm hoping he can get a fast start and run to his rating ......it's a big ask at Chester but not impossible 🤞

Chester is my local racecourse, low draw is absolutely key but as you say, hopefully it can break quickly and defy a high stall. No betting bank my end unfortunately as it's a really tight month but I'll be cheering your selections on for you 👏🏼

[MCLARKE]

29 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said:

Chester is my local racecourse, low draw is absolutely key but as you say, hopefully it can break quickly and defy a high stall. No betting bank my end unfortunately as it's a really tight month but I'll be cheering your selections on for you 👏🏼

Stalls 2,3 and 4 make a profit but stall 1 makes a loss. Stalls 5 to 7 also make a loss but stalls 8 and 9 make a profit. Make of that what you will !

[DanV89]

12 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Beyond Borders well ahead of South Shore  before he went on to win nto albeit on heavy going.

BB has only run against South Shore once from what I can see and that was the day on heavy going you mention? And today Beyond Borders has to give Auric 9lbs. 

[Tedthewolf]

4 minutes ago, DanV89 said:

BB has only run against South Shore once from what I can see and that was the day on heavy going you mention? And today Beyond Borders has to give Auric 9lbs. 

Will be interesting to see what happens. 

The price on BB has capitulated.

 

[Tedthewolf]

I meant to add in the above... Beyond   Borders  give South Shore 9lb  and a nearly  6l   in front of it  lto while south shore was only a llb higher than and when winning a length from Auric.

[richard-westwood]

As expected the money is piling on the lower draws .....it might be  a lesson that it's pointless to look outside the bottom 5 draws but I'm constantly getting my ass kicked by ignoring the computer ratings outside the favoured draws then they "find " a way through .....it's really annoying especially at like 20/1 .....so I have to go with it now .....auric is a speculative bet ....I think he needs fast side of good which he has .....he's only had 3 runs so is open to improvement and the connections usually target this meeting as they like to come and have fun here ....so the rest is just down to the racing gods .....but good luck all who are playing ....the sun's out ...it's a fab days racing 😎😎

Edited May 8 by richard-westwood

[MCLARKE]

Light weights do very well in handicaps at Chester

Horses carrying 8st 7lbs to 8st 11lbs have 109 wins from 915 runs with a profit of 169 points

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Kempton 6.30

BLENHEIM STAR

[anaconda69]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

As expected the money is piling on the lower draws .....it might be  a lesson that it's pointless to look outside the bottom 5 draws but I'm constantly getting my ass kicked by ignoring the computer ratings outside the favoured draws then they "find " a way through .....it's really annoying especially at like 20/1 .....so I have to go with it now .....auric is a speculative bet ....I think he needs fast side of good which he has .....he's only had 3 runs so is open to improvement and the connections usually target this meeting as they like to come and have fun here ....so the rest is just down to the racing gods .....but good luck all who are playing ....the sun's out ...it's a fab days racing 😎😎

I have 6f as draw 1-9 best myself for a larger race 

[MGC]

130 c

12 Stash The Cash

6 Tsunami Spirit 

3 Al Shabab Storm 

cfc and ctc

[The Equaliser]

14 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Stalls 2,3 and 4 make a profit but stall 1 makes a loss. Stalls 5 to 7 also make a loss but stalls 8 and 9 make a profit. Make of that what you will !

[yossa6133]

Adrian Massey's UK Horse Racing Site

 

This site is good for draw info if you're lazy like me, he's been doing it for years and breaks it down for distance, ground, field size etc.

[The Equaliser]

4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I like to use the ATR draw tool.  It is based on historical results.  Maybe mixing it up with @MCLARKE's stats with draw and weights may pay dividends

 

[The Equaliser]

5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I like to use the ATR draw tool.  It is based on historical results.  Maybe mixing it up with @MCLARKE's stats with draw and weights may pay dividends

 

Haha, Old Chums looks to be Shoo in based on draw and Michael's @MCLARKE's weights and measures.  I will have to place a bet on it now 🙂

[Le Doyen]

1.30 Exponista    50/1   4 Places

                              33/1   5 Places

[MCLARKE]

4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Haha, Old Chums looks to be Shoo in based on draw and Michael's @MCLARKE's weights and measures.  I will have to place a bet on it now

A bit too light !

AURIC ticks both boxes

[The Equaliser]

14 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

A bit too light !

AURIC ticks both boxes

Good luck to both you and @richard-westwood with that; after all you are both old chums of mine

[calva decoy]

If you wanna win £ at the Chester May meeting , just back Ryan Moore's rides .

13 wins from last 24 rides , not bad .

A.Balding normally does well here , top of the head thought rather than pure stats so I maybe wrong .

Good luck with your bets today .

[Hotspur88]

INFO

1610 Chester Chortal 6/1 

Can't back personally as need to wait until next month but passing on in good faith. Unless someone fancies sticking a tenner win on for me 👀😅

Edited May 8 by Hotspur88

[The Equaliser]

B/Fwd L15's -82.13 RC P/L - 119.71 (incl L15's)

Had 2 L15's on the daily = 3 pts

1.30 Old Chums 1 pt win at 6.4

3.10 Kel Sword of Fate 0.50 ew at 16/1 5p (Brina Hughes aboard; has won over hurdles twice, reted 10lbs higher in chases)

= 5 points staked today