Racing Chat - Wednesday 17th April

[The Brigadier]

Newmarket 1.50

Day Two of the Craven meeting starts with a maximum field of twenty for this class 2 6F handicap. The race was won last year by Charlie Hills’s Orazio and he’ll be tough to beat back to defend his title even though he will be 11lb higher than last year. He prepped for this by running a fine third in the listed Cammidge Trophy (beaten 1 1/2L by Montassib) at Doncaster (his first since being gelded) and the ground should be ideal for him today with William Buick back on board from a similar stall as last year. He’s the bet here with the likes of Significantly and Chipstead the types who could also run well.

 

ORAZIO 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Cheltenham 2.05

A maximum field of eighteen line up for the first of two races aired live by ITV in the shape of this 2M 4F 56 yard class 2 handicap hurdle. The race has an open look with amongst the front of the betting being the hat trick seeking Spring Note of Nicky Henderson’s and Chris Gordon’s easy Plumpton winner Sea Invasion. Both hold solid chances but I prefer the in form Robbie Llewelyn trained Titan Discovery who has been a revelation since going handicapping winning at Ascot and Sandown and going down by half a length to Boombawn at Kempton on the Saturday after Cheltenham. That form has already been boosted by the win of the fourth Dan Skelton’s Kateira at Aintree. He’s risen 20lb since going handicapping and is up another 3lb for that latest second. Llewelyn has won with 3 of his last 4 runners and he looks a good each way bet.

 

TITAN DISCOVERY 1 point each way @ 8/1 Coral 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 2.25

Ten promising three year olds go to post for this listed 9F Feilden Stakes which can throw up a nice type (Golden Horn won this in 2015). Andre Fabre is a rare visitor to these shores nowadays and anything he sends over has to be respected so the fact that Narkez is here, having won already in France 22 days ago, is highly significant. His two wins however have come on very soft ground so I’ll look elsewhere for the winner. Charlie Appleby’s El Córdobes who cost 2,000,000 guineas as a yearling being by Frankel out of a Sea The Stars mare improved to take a Kempton novice stakes over a mile on his second start at the turn of the year and looks a horse to follow. This represents a step up in class for him but he looks sure to be thereabouts and can run a big race. Aidan O’Brien also sends one over from Ireland in the shape of Group 2 Zetland Stakes runner up Gasper De Lemos and must also be given plenty of respect.

 

EL CORDOBES 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Cheltenham 2.40

The valuable 2M 4F 127 yard Silver Trophy Handicap Chase has attracted a dozen chasers and has an open feel about it with Cheltenham’s Grand Annual Handicap Chase fifth In Excelsis Deo high on the shortlist. The ground will be better here now mind and that may play into course specialist Il Ridoto’s hands. Trained in Somerset by Paul Nicholls his course figures here read 844163238 and although theres just one victory there he’s been placed in many of the better 2M 4F handicap chases here over the past three years. He wasn’t disgraced when 8th in the Plate Handicap Chase at the Festival here in March and surprisingly the handicapper has dropped him 3lb putting him onto a mark that he was a short head second to Fugitif over course and distance in the December Gold Cup. He looks sure to run his race with Harry Cobden taking over from conditional Freddie Gingell.

 

IL RIDOTO 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 3.00

Ten have declared for the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes in which last year’s winner Ottoman Fleet, trained by Charlie Appleby, looks sure to go well and enhance his excellent course record of three wins from four starts. He may bump into one here mind in the shape of the Roger Varian trained Embesto who had a good first season last year as a three year old winning three of his five starts ending the season with 2 1/2L fourth in a Group 2 at Longchamp. The vibes are strong from Newmarket about this Roaring Lion colt and he looks the value bet in the contest. Royal Rhyme is a progressive horse of Karl Burke’s but seems best on very soft ground and is overlooked on that reason alone.

 

EMBESTO 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Newmarket 3.35

A 1000 Guineas trial, the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes has attracted a field of eleven this year including representatives from Aidan O’Brien and Charlie Appleby. The warm favourite trained by the latter is Dance Sequence, who is only a 5/1 chance for the 1000 Guineas itself. She has looked a smart performer winning bath her starts as a juvenile, a maiden on the July course here and the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes over course and distance last October by a neck from Skellet. She has the highest official rating in the field and will be hard to beat although is no value at her current price. The Aidan O’Brien runner is Matrika who was last seen winning a Group 2 at the Curragh over 6F in July. Only rated 3lb behind Dance Sequence she maybe the value bet at the prices to beat the favourite. Best of the rest may well be the Roger Varian filly True Cyan who, like the two aforementioned fillies, holds a 1000 Guineas entry as well (currently a 66-1 chance).

 

MATRIKA 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 123

 

[richard-westwood]

445 Newmarket 

Bolsena... has shown enough to suggest he could take a weakish looking race like this ....interesting that Ryan Moore takes the ride ....I'll try 5pts Ew 5/1 b365 (generally 7/2)

[Hotspur88]

8 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

445 Newmarket 

Bolsena... has shown enough to suggest he could take a weakish looking race like this ....interesting that Ryan Moore takes the ride ....I'll try 5pts Ew 5/1 b365 (generally 7/2)

System mate? 

I am with Betway, Betfair & Betfred so will wait and see how they price up but hopefully they open around 5s 🤞🏼

[richard-westwood]

11 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said:

System mate? 

I am with Betway, Betfair & Betfred so will wait and see how they price up but hopefully they open around 5s 🤞🏼

Yes I've rated all the races but only this one stands out .....there are some new horses ...and horses with potential in here so it's no shoe in by a long shot ....but he has a good rating and at 5/1 he's a shot to nothing Ew to break even if he places ....and Ryan Moore is good for a 5lb bonus so certainly looks interesting 🤔 

[Hotspur88]

11 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Yes I've rated all the races but only this one stands out .....there are some new horses ...and horses with potential in here so it's no shoe in by a long shot ....but he has a good rating and at 5/1 he's a shot to nothing Ew to break even if he places ....and Ryan Moore is good for a 5lb bonus so certainly looks interesting 🤔 

Likelihood it will be available for around 7/2 when everyone bar 365 opens, would you suggest a win single on it at that price or leave it?

[black rabbit]

Wallop                                                     1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew     25/1          

Dark Thirty                                              1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1    - won

Lucid                                                        4 10 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Edited April 17 by black rabbit

[richard-westwood]

59 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said:

Likelihood it will be available for around 7/2 when everyone bar 365 opens, would you suggest a win single on it at that price or leave it?

The bookies don't seem to like the horse ....so I'm surprised it's 7/2 ....a small win bet on Betfair 5.5 looks the best bet otherwise 

[Hotspur88]

1405 Cheltenham Sea Invasion 4/1 (don't like to go e/w under 5/1 but it's paying 5 places so will do for some security)

[Hotspur88]

2030 Kempton Baroque Buoy 4/1 e/w (4 places)

[azzybear]

j.irai lion 11.52 France ew 

[azzybear]

encanto Bruno 1.30

[azzybear]

winner 12.27 France 

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Kempton 5.30

CATHERINE PARR

[Tedthewolf]

1pt  e/w  1.50 NM  WOBWOBWOB 16/1 5 places BOG

Edited April 17 by Tedthewolf

[Brahmin]

Hi all, its Day 2 at Newmarket and its small stakes today after a winning day / nice profit of over £500 for us.......our friends again at HQ and they saw Jason and Adele who are doing TV work this afternoon.....its Good ground he says and initial word is that if the French runner Narkez in 2nd race is ok on the ground then the 3/1 looks good price 🐎.....the other one at long shot is R Varians  Immortal Knight @ 12/1 who could be anything! sooo after their 2 big winners on Day 1 they also small stakes after good fortune.

paying 5 places in 1st sooo going with Raatea @ 12/1 EW and R Varians Al Farabi @ 10/1 EW......oh dear 😨 👎 & the Fav came last also !

 ( at HQ our friend 'bumped into'  a pal 😂 who said might be a Hannon day tomorrow !! oh also tomorrow the French runner in last worth a look to! )

glad we took 3/1 for Narkez as being backed late on course 🤞

 

 Late money for Appleby runner in  3.00 Ottoman Fleet   9/4   WON ..............😃 smiles at HQ too as they followed the money with nice bet @ 9/4 👍     

3.35     Dance Sequence  9/10       

4.45     Bolsena 13/2   WON                     Aurora's Beauty  3/1 

😘 to both our friends at HQ & @richard-westwood for same info / tip so we went straight Win bet with £20 👍

 

5.20   Kalpana  5/1   WON  11/2                 Bust a Move  11/2  

 😘 from HQ to 'us' for the winner in last makes nice change, said we doing easterbys also ( last 😨 ) but they happy as another £260 for them go home with along with their other 2 nice winners earlier 👍

Edited April 17 by Brahmin

[azzybear]

On 4/12/2024 at 2:51 PM, Hotspur88 said:

NR mate, been out for a few hrs now

 

On 4/11/2024 at 8:04 AM, The Brigadier said:

Aintree 1.45

Day two of a rain sodden Aintree Grand National meeting kicks off with the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase run over 3M 1F. Gavin Cromwell’s Inotherwayurthinkin is one of six runners declared and he made an absolute mockery of his handicap mark at the Cheltenham Festival 29 days ago when ridden with upmost confidence by Derek O’Connor in sauntering to a eight length victory in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase and although this is a step up in grade is the highest rated in the field by 4lb. He can take this with both trip and ground conditions to suit from anther Cheltenham Festival winner in the Kim Bailey trained Chianti Classico who took the Ultima Handicap in good style. Both Iroko and Heart Wood have stamina to prove whilst the first time cheek pieced Broadway Boy also has claims.

 

INOTHEWAYUTHINKIN 1 point win @ 11-4 William Hill

 

Aintree 2.20

A maximum sized field of twenty two face the starter for this William Hill sponsored Premier Handicap Hurdle run over a trip of 2M 4F. It has a wide open look about with Dan Skelton throwing five into the race so with stable jockey Harry Skelton apparently choosing Kateira, she should be on anyone’s short list. One who catches my eye is the bottom weight Making Headway, trained by Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero. A lightly raced 3M Irish point to point winner he should relish stepping up to 2M 4F for the first time and with his two victories at Carlisle and Newbury both coming in heavy ground today’s boggy terrain will be of no concern to his connections. His fourth to Go Dante at Sandown in a similar handicap last time was decent form especially as he was staying on up the run in looking to all that a step up in trip will suit. He sports first time cheek pieces as well and looks a good each way bet.

 

MAKING HEADWAY 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

Aintree 2.55

A field of eight line up for this Grade 1 Trustatrader Top Novices’ Hurdle run over 2M 103 yards. A strong fancy is the Willie Mullins trained, J P McManus owned Mystical Power who had both Firefox and stable mate Mistergif 3 1/2L and 6L respectively behind in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham and there seems no real reason why either should turn the tables on the pick. I worry about the very testing ground for Fergal O’Brien’s smart mare Dysart Enos, who missed Cheltenham through injury and a bigger danger may well be Jeremy Scott’s mare Golden Ace who took the mares novice hurdle at Cheltenham four weeks ago. This looks one for Mullins and J P McManus though with Mystical Power.

 

MYSTICAL POWER 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

Aintree 3.30

A small but select field of seven go to post for the 2M 4F My Pension Expert Melling Chase. The highest rated is the Nicky Henderson trained Jonbon who will be the pick but only if there are signs on day one that all is well with his stable following his nightmare Cheltenham. Henderson has run nothing of real note since and with Jonbon missing Cheltenham will hopefully come here a fresh horse. He’s stepping up to 2M 4F for the first time but was a 15L Irish point to point winner over 3M so I don’t really see that as being an excuse. He will also have to jump better than he did when last seen at Cheltenham but he is a class performer who’s won 12 of his 15 starts having been runner up in his three defeats. Ryanair one - two Protektorat and Envoi Allen will have their supporters along with last years winner Pic D’Orhy but a fit and healthy Jonbon can score and put a smile back on the master of Seven Barrows.

 

JONBON 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365

 

Aintree 4.05

The day’s race over the Grand National fences is the 2M 5F Topham Handicap Chase in which we have a strong field of twenty five lining up. Last year’s winner Bill Baxter, from the in form (a double on Tuesday) stable of Warren Greatrex can run well although he’s shown very little this season, including last time when well backed on his favoured ground and is scant value at around the 9-2 mark. Harry Redknapp’s Shakem Up’arry won the Plate at Cheltenham and even with a 6lb rise can also be competitive for Ben Pauling and Ben Jones. Buckinghamshire trainer Stuart Edmunds has had his string in excellent form for a while now and his runner here Arizona Cardinal is an interesting runner. An easy winner at Leicester and Ludlow on soft ground this year (rising 14lb) this race was mooted after the victory at the latter track by his owners and he could be some each way value in a wide open contest.

 

ARIZONA CARDINAL 1 point each way @ 12-1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

 

Aintree 4.40

Nine staying novice hurdlers face the judge for this Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle. The best form is brought to the table by Ben Pauling’s The Jukebox Man who ran a stormer in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham when runner up, having been run down on the run in, by the 33/1 outsider Stellar Story. He had the Willie Mullins pair Dancing City 7L behind in third and the favourite Reading Tommy Wrong (pulled up) behind that day and can confirm that form under Kielan Woods. The interesting runner, especially if Nicky Henderson’s runners have run well coming into the race, is the Mrs J Donnelly owned Shanagh Bob who we haven’t seen since he won a Grade 2 at Cheltenham over today’s distance back in December. He missed, like all of Henderson’s stars, the Cheltenham Festival and will come here a fresh unbeaten stayer who’s won twice on soft ground. He’s worth a saver.

 

THE JUKEBOX MAN 1 point win @ 7/2 Betfred

SHANAGH BOB 1 point win @ 9/2 Betfred

 

Aintree 5.15

Day two of the Grand National concludes with a nineteen runner 2M 103 yard conditional jockeys’ and amateur riders’ handicap hurdle. Plenty can be given a chance including Olly Murphy’s Go Dante who will love the heavy ground although he will have to overcome a career high handicap mark of 134. The horse which attracts me is the Ben Pauling trained Densworth who appeared to show much improved form for a wind operation when running away with a handicap hurdle on heavy ground at Doncaster on his re-appearance. It was a race where only four hurdles were actually jumped but you couldn’t be anything but impressed by his 16L victory especially as the horse back in second, his stable mate Getaway Drumlee, ran out a easy 17L winner himself later in the month at Fontwell. Densworth ran in this race last year as a 20-1 chance when pulling up, coming back with a dirty trachea wash according to his handler in a recent Aintree preview. A 10lb rise may not be enough to stop him from running well each way in a highly competitive handicap especially as his jockey Beau Morgan takes off 5lb thus halving the additional weight. Charlie Byrnes is a trainer to be feared and his runner here Maidenstreetprince was alongside, although not going as well, as Sir Gerhard when falling two out at Cork 12 days ago and when you consider that one is rated 155 it is possible that he could be very well treated off of just 128 today. He is worth saving on.

 

DENSWORTH 1 point each way @ 10-1 bet365 1/5th 12345

MAIDENSTREETPRINCE 1/2 point each way @ 6-1 William HIll 1/5th 12345

 

 

 

On 4/14/2024 at 4:42 PM, azzybear said:

nr

 

1 hour ago, azzybear said:

encanto Bruno 1.30

Nr

[azzybear]

1 hour ago, azzybear said:

encanto Bruno 1.30

nr

[Hotspur88]

15 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

1405 Cheltenham Sea Invasion 4/1 (don't like to go e/w under 5/1 but it's paying 5 places so will do for some security)

Beaten 1/2l 3rd and went off 5/1 so money back and a wise decision to go e/w

[yossa6133]

Pull Again Green 3:50 Cheltenham 20/1. Small bet on this in case he's ready to roll. 4L behind Chianti Classico at Chepstow back in October, bled when running no race next time and off since. This is probably just a plod round to see where he's at before going back over fences, but I'll have a small bet on the nose just in case.

0.1 pts win 20/1 (bigger on exchange).

 

Good run in 4th, looked to have  a chance but maybe blew up a bit after the last. Definitely one to keep an eye on next time.

 

P/L: -1.8pts.

Edited April 17 by yossa6133

[MGC]

300 Nm Astro King 9/1

[MGC]

Seraphim Angel 16/1 410

sire is 3-4 with his runners thus far

Dascombe 2/4 this race +32.38

[Hotspur88]

23 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

445 Newmarket 

Bolsena... has shown enough to suggest he could take a weakish looking race like this ....interesting that Ryan Moore takes the ride ....I'll try 5pts Ew 5/1 b365 (generally 7/2)

🔥🔥🔥🔥

Wins 6/1....what a guy! I only backed £5 small e/w (£10 total) but another great pick mate 👏🏼

[DanV89]

23 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

445 Newmarket 

Bolsena... has shown enough to suggest he could take a weakish looking race like this ....interesting that Ryan Moore takes the ride ....I'll try 5pts Ew 5/1 b365 (generally 7/2)

6/1 lovely winner Richard thanks again bud. 

[richard-westwood]

2 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said:

🔥🔥🔥🔥

Wins 6/1....what a guy! I only backed £5 small e/w (£10 total) but another great pick mate 👏🏼

It's all profit ......another +35.00 in the kitty 

[black rabbit]

23 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Wallop                                                     1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew     25/1          

Dark Thirty                                              1 50 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1    - won

Lucid                                                        4 10 New/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

"dark thirty " to brighten the day

[richard-westwood]

2 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

"dark thirty " to brighten the day

Nice 🙂 

[black rabbit]

37 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Nice 🙂 

 also had "cross double's with yours {as always} pal

Edited April 17 by black rabbit

[fd1972uk]

On 4/16/2024 at 4:54 PM, richard-westwood said:

445 Newmarket 

Bolsena... has shown enough to suggest he could take a weakish looking race like this ....interesting that Ryan Moore takes the ride ....I'll try 5pts Ew 5/1 b365 (generally 7/2)

Good man, had a bit of that ew too.

Better option in end I took your pick as was going Orazio and/or the ever reliable ew horse Aberama Gold

[richard-westwood]

17 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Good man, had a bit of that ew too.

Better option in end I took your pick as was going Orazio and/or the ever reliable ew horse Aberama Gold

I did actually rate that race but the top 4 were all bunched up ...aberrama gold was top rated and finished 3rd at 20/1 ....but I wasn't confident enough to bet 😭

[azzybear]

4 hours ago, azzybear said:

 

 

 

Nr

don't now how that happened at the top soz aboute that