Racing Chat - Thursday 14th March (Cheltenham Day 3)

[The Brigadier]

Cheltenham 1.30

A field of eleven face the starter in the opener on day three for the 2M 4F Turners Novices’ Chase. Ireland have won nine of the 13 runnings of this contest but this years prize may be staying at home with Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Grey Dawning and Paul Nicholls’s Ginny’s Destiny fighting out the finish. The pair met over course and distance back in December with the latter coming out on top by 3/4L but Grey Dawning is now 3lb better off and made a race ending mistake two out that day. There probably won’t be much between them again with slight preference for Ginny’s Destiny who won the same novices’ handicap over course and distance as last year’s winner Stage Star from the same yard of Paul Nicholls. His record here now reads 7111 and he can take this with Harry Cobden doing the steering although Grey Dawning looks a massive danger..

 

GINNY’S DESTINY 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 2.10

A maximum field of twenty four staying hurdlers line up for the wide open Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Final. Gordon Elliot has won three of the last six renewals and appears to hold a big chance of enhancing that record with his novice Cleatus Poolaw. He made a promising handicap debut when qualifying for this race when runner up at Naas in February over 2M 6 1/2F, keeping on well. Todays extra distance should suit him and he can run well along with another Irish runner in the shape of the Ted Walsh runner Garth Chuil. A winner of a qualifier at leopardstown over Christmas he went down by 3/4L in another qualifier to Maxxum again at Leopardstown five weeks later and will find conditions to suit here. Mel Rowley’s mudlark Kyntara is an outsider who could out run his odds but in a wide open heat it’s Cleatus Poolaw that has my vote with a saver on Cleatus Poolaw.

 

GARTH CHUIL 1 point each way @ 9/1 Coral 1/5th 123456

CLEATUS POOLAW 1/2 point each way @ 15/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

 

Cheltenham 2.50

The Ryanair Chase is run over the intermediate trip of 2M 4 1/2F and has an open enough look about it this year. The ground appears to have scuppered the chances of Banbridge who was pulled out on the morning of the Turners last year when the ground turned soft. Last year’s winner Envoi Allen has to be in the shake up and although he’s now ten years old remains in top form, and he must go close. Last year’s Turners winner Stage Star has a good record at the track although has to put a poor effort on New Year’s Day in a handicap behind him when pulling up. The best outsider may be Richard Hobson’s Fugitif who prepped for this over too short a trip at Newbury when third to Elixir De Nutz and Jonbon. Bar the rank outsider Fil Dor there is actually only 10lb between the whole field. Trainer Henry De Bromhead is already on the scoresheet for the meeting and can back up last year’s success in this race with the smart Envoi Allen and Rachael Blackmore.

 

ENVOI ALLEN 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Cheltenham 3.30

Thirteen staying hurdlers go to post for the 3M Stayers’ Hurdle in which there is only officially 10lb between the whole field on ratings. The rain that fell earlier in the week will be ideal for Gordon Elliott’s Teahupoo who is well suited by the mud. He came into this race a year ago mind as 9/4 favourite when finishing third to Sire Du Berlais and although he can obviously win is scant value at around the 2/1 mark. An intriguing runner is Gavin Cromwell’s Flooring Porter who has an excellent record at the track which reads 1141 which includes the 2021 and 2022 runnings of tis race. Fourth last year he embarked on a chasing career this season winning here in October. He reverts to hurdles and with his liking for the track and trip could be the each way value in an open renewal in which the best of the home challenge is Fergal O’Brien’s Crambo.

 

FLOORING PORTER 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Cheltenham 4.10

The 2M 4 1/2F TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase may have twenty one runners but there’s plenty that are hard to fancy here and this may be fought out by the two novices who head the market in the shape of Jonjo O’Neill’s Crebilly and Richard Bandey’s Theatre Man. Slight preference is for the former who’s shown promise in good novice company on his three starts over fences and looks to have been allotted a very fair handicap mark. With luck in running he could rout this field with Theatre Man chasing him home. Novices have done well in this over the years and another novice Saint Felicien, trained by Gordon Elliott also has claims having won at Gowran Park last time out. Crebilly is the one but it’s well worth a small saver on the danger Theatre Man.

 

CREBILLY 2 points win 7/2 888sport

THEATRE MAN 1 point win @ 5/1 888sport

 

Cheltenham 4.50

Eleven have declared for the Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle and with Ireland having taken six of the eight runnings of this race once again have a very strong hand with the front two in the betting. Gordon Elliott has been waxing lyrical about his unbeaten five year old Brighterdaysahead and she will no doubt be hard to beat although like Willie Mullins’s Jade De Grugy, who is also unbeaten, has to carry a 5lb penalty for winning class 1 contests. One horse who’s done nothing wrong and has been well campaigned to avoid any penalties is the locally trained Dysart Enos. She’s won three bumpers and three novice hurdles with her head in her chest and in receipt of 5lb from the two Irish favourites may be the value bet for Fergal O’Brien and jockey Paddy Brennan. O’Brien has yet to have a winner at the festival but with a bit of luck today could be his day.

 

DYSART ENOS 1 point each way @ 9/2 BetVictor

 

Cheltenham 5.30

The finale for day three is the 3M 2F Kim Muir Handicap Chase for amateur riders. The well backed favourite is top weight Inothewayurthinkin trained by Gavin Cromwell in the colours of J P McManus and ridden by the top Irish amateur Derek O’Connor who took this back in 2019 on Any Second Now. He’s been well found in the market however and didn’t jump with fluency last time out, only his fifth ever chase start. He could well win here but with luck in running needed I’m prepared to have a swing at a big priced one each way with extra places. Step forward the Venetia Williams trained seven year old Demnat. Lightly raced, the full brother to high class 2 miler Sceau Royal, is stepping up markedly in trip and at his current odds is worth chancing that the longer trip may actually suit him. He made a winning debut for Williams at Ludlow when routing his field coasting home 15L to the good in February but flopped when dropping back to two miles a fortnight ago when he actually ran better than his finishing position of a 25L third looked as he skidded after jumping the last when 8L down. In the hope the step up in trip helps and with the assistance of female Irish amateur Aine O’Connor in the saddle he’s a value play for a stable that won this race with a 40/1 chance two years ago.

 

DEMNAT 1 point each way @ 33/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

 

[richard-westwood]

210 chelt 

Judicial law  8.3 40/1 

Monmiral. 8.2 33/1 

Chantry house. 8.2 20/1 

I'll try 5pt Ew all 3 at big prices ....and forecasts 

Edited March 13 by richard-westwood

[Brahmin]

Hi all, well Day 3 and hope our luck now continues after yesterdays returns and following inform / plot trainers / horses 👌 🐎.......

 

Cleatus Poolaw, Gaoth Chuil, Gabbys Cross & Icare Allen All To Finish In Top 10 in  14.10  @ 5/1   😨

Crebilly, Theatre Man, Saint Felicien & Shakem Uparry  To Finish In The Top 10 In 16:10 @ 3/1    😨

Inothewayurthinkin, Cool Survivor, Angels Dawn & Whacker Clan To Finish In The Top 10 In 17:30 @ 11/2  😨

W Mullins To Train 2 Winners @ 9/4..............W Mullins To Train 3 Winners @ 11/1..........Dan Skelton To Train 2 Winners @ 12/1   WON  💷

Paul Townend To Ride 2 Winners @ 5/1     

1.30 Ginnys Destiny 11/2 EW  2nd  ( 3 places)  &  2.10 Cleatus Poolaw 15/2 EW   😨  ( 6 places )......EW double  😨

2.10  Gaoth Chuil 7/1 EW ( 6 places)  😨  &  2.50  Protektorat  10/1 EW  WON  ( 3 places )......  EW double  😨

2.50  Stage Star  13/2 EW  😨 ( 3 places )  &  3.30  Crambo  7/1 EW  😨  ( 4 places )......EW double  😨

2.50  Envoi Allen  5/2          Capodanno  8/1  EW  

3.30  Teahupoo  6/4  WON    & 11/8   WON   ( main bet )            Crambo  7/1 EW                     4 places

       🥂 🏆 well he delivered for us for Main bet this afternoon, so along with D Skelton 2 wins bet coming in, we have very nice profit 💷

 

Edited March 14 by Brahmin

[richard-westwood]

410 chelt 

Crebilly  8.6 9/2 

Theatre man 8.4 4/1 

Shakeenupharry. 8.1 10/1 

5pt wins all 3 and forecasts 

[richard-westwood]

Kim Muir 

Cloudy glen. 8.6 25/1 

City chief 8.4 50/1 

Fakir dalene. 8.0 33/1 

5pt Ew all 3 and forecasts 

[richard-westwood]

Also had ....

Ginny's destiny 130 chelt 9/2

Stage star. Ryanair 11/2 

2 x 10pt wins and 10pt Ew double 

[tonythepaint]

Running total -£10

Bet 6

 

[calva decoy]

Good luck to STAGE STAR 4/1 ( free bet Sky yesterday ) & all of their owners who paid about £50 to own an eyelash & around £30 on each seasons renewal , make a nice change from the ever increasing Irish domination . 👎 well done to PROTEKTORAT , a likeable winner who's always threatened to be top class .

Edited March 14 by calva decoy

[black rabbit]

     Praire Dancer                                                2 10 Chl/                  1/40th of a pt ew        60/1

     Golden Ace                                                    4 50 Chl/                  1/40th of a pt ew        25/1            - Won

     Fredo Banbou                                               4 10 Chl/                  1/40th of a pt ew        30/1            -  3rd

     In Excelsis Deo                                              4 10 Chl/                  1/40th of a pt ew        15/1            -  5th

     Home By The Lee                                          3 30 Chl/                 1/40th of a pt ew        22/1

Edited March 14 by black rabbit

[tonythepaint]

Bet 7

[black rabbit]

19 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

210 chelt 

Judicial law  8.3 40/1 

Monmiral. 8.2 33/1 

Chantry house. 8.2 20/1 

I'll try 5pt Ew all 3 at big prices ....and forecasts 

👍

[richard-westwood]

19 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

210 chelt 

Judicial law  8.3 40/1 

Monmiral. 8.2 33/1 

Chantry house. 8.2 20/1 

I'll try 5pt Ew all 3 at big prices ....and forecasts 

That's a nice surprise ....returns 205.00

[fd1972uk]

Good win at start with Grey Dawning, first win.

Did have Facile Vega with multis so they're done.

Cuthbert Dibble on 1410, 3rd, had also with double.

Stage Star 1450 double odds via MGM

Sire du burleias 1530

Got a couple of bet builders to use so may go teahupoo and look at later races.

1610 took a few

St fecilien 

Il ridoto

1650 will probably go couple of multis with two top horses

1730

Whereitallbegan

Good luck all.

[Zilzalian]

I am quite intrigued with this Ginger McCain horse Titanium Moon. Hughes here for 1 race in itself is unusual 80/1 even after the non runners looks well worth a risk.

Edited March 14 by Zilzalian

[MCLARKE]

PLATE HANDICAP CHASE (Thursday)

8 of the 10 winners previously ran at Cheltenham or Leopardstown. This was from 67 runners and the profit was 96 points.

Horses that have run in large fields previously have a good record. Those that ran in fields of 10 runners or more have produced 9 wins from 83 runners with a profit of 84 points. Those that ran in smaller fields have just 1 winner from 135 runners with a loss of 119 points.

This narrows the field to 6, THEATRE MAN (3/1), JAMES DU BERLAIS (14/1), RIAAN (22/1), WATCH HOUSE CROSS (25/1), LIFE IN THE PARK (33/1) and STRAW FAN JACK (40/1).

Horses that have won over the distance before have a record of 6 wins from 67 runs with a profit of 21 points.

Those that finished 1^st or 2^nd last time have recorded 7 wins from 62 runners with a profit of 42 points.

 

THEATRE MAN and RIANN pass all the tests.

 

[richard-westwood]

21 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

410 chelt 

Crebilly  8.6 9/2 

Theatre man 8.4 4/1 

Shakeenupharry. 8.1 10/1 

5pt wins all 3 and forecasts 

Shake wins and forecast .....5pt forecasts returns 176.00 ....returns +231.00 ....prob about +380.00 after losses with one race to come 

[MCLARKE]

FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP

 

It pays to be fit. Those that last ran 11 to 28 days ago have won 6 times from 61 runs with a profit of 108 points. The remainder have 4 wins from 162 runs with a loss of 120 points.

 This leaves 5, DEMNAT (50/1), WHACKER CLAN (7/1), BOWTOGREATNESS (14/1), WHEREITALLBEGAN (9/1) and RAPPER (33/1).

 Those horses with an SP of between 13/8 and 4/1 have 6 wins from 43 runs with a profit of 79 points. This leaves DEMNAT and BOWTOGREATNESS.

 Horses running over a distance 5 to 10 furlongs further than last time have 4 wins from 19 runs with a profit of 57 points.

 

This leaves DEMNAT at 50/1 (5 places).

 

[black rabbit]

8 hours ago, black rabbit said:

     Praire Dancer                                                2 10 Chl/                  1/40th of a pt ew        60/1

     Golden Ace                                                    4 50 Chl/                  1/40th of a pt ew        25/1            - Won

     Fredo Banbou                                               4 10 Chl/                  1/40th of a pt ew        30/1            -  3rd

     In Excelsis Deo                                              4 10 Chl/                  1/40th of a pt ew        15/1

     Home By The Lee                                          3 30 Chl/                 1/40th of a pt ew        22/1              - 5th

"ace" claims the prize    { iv'e had a "tenner" on 'Git Maker' in the last 🙂 }

Edited March 14 by black rabbit

[calva decoy]

3 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

"ace" claims the prize    { iv'e had a "tenner" on 'Git Maker' in the last 🙂 }

I had GOLDEN ACE in my lucky 15 which @Zilzalian is running as well as 40/1 placed STRAW FAN JACK but being small odds & in a multi I've pretty much won JACK .

[azzybear]

cloudy glen 5.30

[azzybear]

sky dancer 6.45 

[azzybear]

arzaak 7.00

[azzybear]

bletchley storm 7.15

[azzybear]

micks spirit 7.30

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Southwell 7.45

TEES DOUGE