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Racing Chat - Saturday 27th January


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Cheltenham 1.15
A decent thirteen runner Premier Handicap has attracted thirteen chasers over a trip of 2M 4F 127 yards with the race having a wide open look to it. Venetia Williams saddles a brace of runners and it’s the Charlie Deutsch ridden Victtorini who takes my eye. He’s won two handicap chases at Ascot this season over 3M rising just 8lb and may not be too inconvenienced by the drop back in trip. His latest victory has been boosted already by subsequent victories for the third and eighth since and with extra places looks decent each way value.
 
VICTTORINO 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
Cheltenham 1.50
Six chasers line up for the latest renewal of the Grade 2, 3M 1 1/2F Paddy Power Cotswold Chase. Five of the six are carrying penalties and it’s a tightly knit contest where each of the sextet has a chance. Slight preference is for the Patrick Neville trained The Real Whacker who has an excellent record at the track, including a short head victory over Geri Colombe in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Festival last March. He showed plenty more than his re-appearance last time out in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day when fourth with the third Allaho winning since to frank the form. His regular rider Sam Twiston-Davies is back in the saddle and he can run well in a tight race.
 
THE REAL WHACKER 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365
 
Doncaster 2.05
A field of six line up for this Yorkshire Rose Mares Hurdle run over 2M 128 yards. Willie Mullins has sent over two from his Closutton stables in Ireland in the shape of Gala Marceau, ridden by Danny Mullins and Ashroe Diamond ridden by Paddy Mullins. With question marks over the rest of the field they may fight out the finish with preference for Gala Marceau who was not far off the top of the juvenile hurdle pile last season and if straight enough can take this.
 
GALA MARCEAU 1 point win @ 15/8 bet365
 
Cheltenham 2.25
The re-arranged Grade 1 Clarence House Chase has attracted five chasers although unfortunately not El Fabiolo who stays in Ireland for the Dublin Racing Festival next weekend. That surely leaves the path open for Jonbon to continue his winning run (he’s now won twelve of his 14 runs under rules). He’s rated 8lb and upwards better than his quartet of opponents and can take this en route to a clash with El Fabiolo at Cheltenham in March although he will be at unbackable odds today obviously.
 
Doncaster 2.40
Ten line up for the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett River Don Novices’ Hurdle run over 3m 84 yards. It may be between the Paul Nicholls trained Welcom To Castries and Kim Bailey’s Destroytheevidence with slight preference for the latter who has the best piece of form in his locker with his 1 1/4L second to the promising Shangagh Bob in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in December. A reproduction of that effort should see him go very close to taking this under David Bass for the team who struck with First Flow at Lingfield last weekend.
 
DESTROYTHEEVIDENCE 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor
 
Cheltenham 3.00
The Unibet Hurdle run over a distance of 2M 179 yards is up next with five hurdlers lining up. Last year’s top juvenile hurdler Lossiemouth is making her re-appearance having not been seen since winning at the Punchestown Festival last April. If she’s near enough ready she’ll be hard to beat with Paul Townend over to ride her. The other mare in the race, Love Envoi looks her biggest danger and any easing of the ground will be in her favour. A fit Lossiemouth should be winning this for master trainer Willie Mullins.
 
LOSSIEMOUTH 1 point win @ 5/6 William Hill
 
Doncaster 3.15
The day’s big handicap is the SBK Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase run over a trip of 3M. A near maximum field of eighteen have declared and the race, as one would expect, has a wide open look about it. My short list comprises of Emmet Mullins’s Sweet Will, Nick Kent’s Erne River and Christian Williams’s Cap Du Nord. Preference is for the latter who has been placed in this race, off of higher marks, the last three years. He, in typical Christian Williams style, has shown nothing this season but his mark has fallen to a mark 3lb lower than when beaten a length by Coopers Cross last year. Sure to have been aimed at this and sneaking in off bottom weight under Jack Tudor he looks the one to be with although I can’t resist a small each way saver with additional places on Nick Kent’s Erne River who bounced back to form over course and distance last time to bring his course figures to 1121.
 
CAP DU NORD 1 point each way @ 8/1 Betfred 1/5th 12345
ERNE RIVER 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 123456
 
Cheltenham 3.35
The McCoy Contractors Cleeve Hurdle is run over 3M and we have a seven strong field this year. He maybe the joint oldest in the field but Emma Lavelle’s Paisley Park has an excellent record in this race having finished third last year and winning it three times.
He showed last time in in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot before Christmas that he’s lost none of his old zip when going down in a head bobbing finish to Crambo. He had both Dashel Drasher and Champ behind him that day and looks set to confirm the form and win this again at the age of twelve under Tom Bellamy.
 
PAISLEY PARK 1 point win @ 11/4 bet365
 
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Coopers Cross                                                  3 15 Don/        1/40th of a pt ew     20/1

War Lord                                                            11 50 Dn/        1/40th of a pt ew    18/1

Green Sky                                                          12 20 Dn/         1/40th of a pt ew    14/1          -  3rd

 

 

P/L   + 176.50 pts

 

 

 

CapduNord.thumb.png.cee645b4650d02af3fcccfa8e697df59.png

 

 

Edited by black rabbit
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Six key stats to help you beat the bookies on Saturday

Cheltenham

Gavin Cromwell has saddled seven winners from 17 runners at Cheltenham this season, with more than half of them coming in handicap chases. Placing £1 on all 11 of Cromwell's runners in those particular races would have earned a profit of £18.25, therefore Railway Hurricane has to be of interest in the 2m4½f novice handicap chase (12.40).

The nine-year-old had Cheltenham form figures of 223 before falling in the December Gold Cup and he is 15lb better off with Ginny's Destiny than

Doncaster

Sean Quinlan is unbeaten on Great Yorkshire Chase (3.15) favourite Famous Bridge and he could make it four from four on the Nicky Richards-trained favourite if his mount can defy a 4lb rise for last month's Tommy Whittle success.

Quinlan knows what it takes to win the prestigious £100,000 handicap, having scored on the Richards-trained rank outsider Takingrisks in 2021 before following up on another 40-1 shot, Windsor Avenue, the following season.

Fairyhouse

All three of Where's Frankie's victories have been at Fairyhouse and he returns to the track to contest the same 3m2f handicap chase (1.40) he won in 2022.

Karl Thornton's eight-year-old has a more difficult task this time as he is rated 16lb higher, although Danny Gilligan's claim means he is 4lb better off than when a respectable third on his most recent chase start here last month.

Kempton

Charles Bishop has been successful on both his rides for George Baker at Kempton in the last four seasons with a £1 stake on each of the winners yielding a level-stake profit of £16.50.

One of those victories come on Hieronymus, who attempts to follow up his course-and-distance win 24 days ago off a 4lb higher mark in the 7f handicap (6.30). Hieronymus beat Love De Vega by nearly two lengths and the runner-up franked the form by landing a seven-runner Chelmsford event on his next start. Hieronymus is only 1lb worse off with Love De Vega here and could confirm the form of their last meeting.

 

Newcastle

Alan Brown has been responsible for both winners of this 6f classified race (6.45) with Atrafan backing up his 2022 success for the trainer in the race last year.

Brown saddles Little Red Dancer, who will need to improve from her fifth-placed effort here on Monday but the drop to 6f should suit. The four-year-old was third over course and distance off 1lb lower in November.

 

Uttoxeter

Uttoxeter is Billy Aprahamian's winningmost track and both of the trainer's wins at the Staffordshire venue have come in handicap chases. A £1 stake on all three of his runners in those contests would have yielded a level-stake profit of £50.20.

Therefore, Kalkas, has to be of interest in the 2m4f handicap chase (3.08). The eight-year-old beat only one rival on his stable debut at Leicester but he was good enough to win an 18-runner Limerick maiden hurdle when with Henry de Bromhead. Kalkas also ran in Grade 1 company at the Dublin Racing Festival during his novice hurdle campaign and he could provide Apprahamian with another big-priced Uttoxeter winner.

when third behind the Paul Nicholls-trained favourite in November.

 

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Hawaii Du Mestrivel 4:15 Uttox (8/1 bet365). Liked the look of this one on his return from 2 years off at Plumpton, where he was up there for a long time before dropping out quickly. Ran similar at Chepstow and over this CD. 1st run in a handicap and 1st time tongue strap today need to make a difference.

If he could run anywhere near his 2 point to point efforts (close up to 140 types) then he would win this. Could just as easily finish last if the tongue strap doesn't help. 

1pt win 8/1 bet365

P/L: -0.9pts

 

Probably just isn't very good based on that. Might have another look if they go chasing over 3m.

Edited by yossa6133
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