"CASH OUT" - NOW or NEVER?

[White Feather]

I am not sure if the above topic has been discussed in PL forum?

 

Prior to Covid, I placed my bets in my local bookies - Ladbrokes and BETFRED.

When the dreaded Covid hit our shores and lockdown was introduced, I decided to open a few accounts with online bookmakers for the first time ever, as all bookmakers shops closed.

 

Over the last couple of years I had the opportunity to "cash out" and at the start I was very wary of it? but I have made decisions on accepting "cash out" and other times I have let my bet(s) run.

 

The results have been mixed - accepting "cash out" and bet goes on to win - refusing "cash out" offer and bet losses, a few of them being football accas.

 

Saturday 11^th November, I placed a £5 e/w double - odds were 18/1 and 20/1 - the 18/1 shot wins and bet 365 offer me a "cash out" of £106 - potential returns £2,225 - I decide to let my bet run - my 20/1 shot is running in the November handicap paying 4 places - my horse finishes 8^th - so e/w double is gubbed.

 

I would be interested to know from PL forum what your thoughts are on "Cashing Out" your bet(s)?

I understand it can go one way or another? Is it a benefit to punters or is it another way for the bookies to cover there potential losses?

 

Thank you in advance.

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

On the whole I have made more by cashing out but have had fingers burned a couple of times

[Zilzalian]

Bit of a contentious subject Cash outs i will let @LEE-GRAYS the cash out kid put the case for using the cash out then i will put the case of why he is wrong. 🤣

[LEE-GRAYS]

23 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Bit of a contentious subject Cash outs i will let @LEE-GRAYS the cash out kid put the case for using the cash out then i will put the case of why he is wrong. 🤣

I claim the 5th amendment as I write this the sun sets on my private Caribbean island 😂🍷

[LEE-GRAYS]

Ok let’s see what happens votes on next move I will go with zil at moment 

[Bang on]

I wouldn't cash out, if you even think about it .. then why place the bet in the first place ? In your example, you would be better off betting £5 win on each rather than an EW double. 

You also mention that a few are football accumulators, the dreaded one let me down in the pub. I have a few friends who have had a similar experience, this very weekend they cashed out with Hull only drawing, only for them to score a 92nd minute winner. The cash out was poor compensation IMO.

My advice is this ... if it wasn't a benefit to the bookmakers ... they wouldn't offer it. The ONLY time I would contemplate a cash out, is if the amount being offered would make a significant difference to your life ( last leg of an acca with £5k+ riding on it etc). You can though go to the exchanges and lay your last selection to guarantee a decent return. I recently had £4k + going on to an even money chance so went to the exchange to lay a significant sum. The horse was beaten a SH and the acca went down, but the exchange profit was a reasonable compensation.

That's my 2p worth.

[LEE-GRAYS]

1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Ok let’s see what happens votes on next move I will go with zil at moment 

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

Just now, LEE-GRAYS said:

 

Got go with it now unless Lilly wins

[MCLARKE]

From a mathematical point of view you should not cash out, the bookies only offer it as a way of enhancing their profits

From a psychological point of view it could be a good idea due to loss aversion. The view is that losses hurt twice as much as profits give pleasure.

Also it depends on your financial circumstances. If you have no money then making a guaranteed £100 is important, if you are a millionaire then it doesn't make much difference.

[LEE-GRAYS]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Bit of a contentious subject Cash outs i will let @LEE-GRAYS the cash out kid put the case for using the cash out then i will put the case of why he is wrong. 🤣

Bit windy on the island 😂

[LEE-GRAYS]

Just now, LEE-GRAYS said:

Bit windy on the island 😂

 

[harry_rag]

It's a subject that crops up quite often. Here's my thoughts from a while back for anyone who was thinking "I hope Harry Rag comes along with a lengthy post on the subject"!

I'd say the person who never does it is probably right more often than not and anyone who does it regularly will usually be wrong at least from a mathematical viewpoint. Bottom line is the bookies will usually offer you less than the true value of the cashout. The most compelling reasons for doing it are where you could take a life changing amount of money and don't want to risk full on "sh*t or bust" or you genuinely feel the cashout offers value and is a bet you would have taken even if you hadn't had the original bet. (Say you back New Zealand at 7/1 to win the Rugby World Cup and they end up odds on to win the final but you think the other team should be favourites; then there's a case for cashing out fully or partially). Simplest thing to do is leave it alone other than in exceptional circumstance.

[yossa6133]

I'll often lay the last leg to get my stake back. Sometimes if a horse shortens a lot I'll lay it for my stake leaving a free bet. Or you can back against your selection where possible, is usually better value than a straight cash out.

[LEE-GRAYS]

1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Got go with it now unless Lilly wins

All down yo Greggy for £22

[Trotter]

Most of my betting these days is on football and  I'm cashing out much more than I used to 

I think it's the suspicion that you might be facing 10/15 minutes of 'injury time' that gets my finger hovering over the button as we approach the 90th minute and my team is 1 goal up

 

 

[Zilzalian]

@Bang on @MCLARKE @harry_rag @yossa6133 have made many of the points i was going to make apologies to them if i repeat some. Here's the thing, bookies wouldn't offer them if it wasn't a benefit to themselves. Secondly we must differentiate between Racing and football, lucky 15's and straight accas football accas i will leave to others i think there is a case where a fool has a 8-10 team acca.

I will deal with Lucky 15's, first thing to say is i have covered this extensively in above said Fred. but basically if you are skint and the cash out is significant to you then there is a case to be made, this time last year (proofed on here) i was offered if i remember correctly £2,400 quid i had was already holding £1,200 with one leg to go which if it had won would have been £13,000+ It lost, i did not cash out so did i lose £1,200? No i won £1,200 from a £6 stake. Look at those maths that clearly favour the bookie, they would have saved £10,000+ ish had i cashed out and the last leg had won. Now suppose i had cashed out i would have been as happy as @LEE-GRAYS because the last leg lost but had it won and i had cashed out not only would i have been £10,000+ light i wouldn't have been able to sleep for months and believe me daft as it sounds it is not the money to me i bet for fun. Imagine cashing out a mortgage for a holiday. Now the main point is why have a lucky 15 bet that might produce a huge return in the first place if you don't give yourself a chance of getting that return? How it works is to give an example, if your first two legs win then you are offered (in most cases) a settlement of your first 2 winners and last 2 legs as non runners if your first 3 win you are offered the 4th leg as 1 non runner. The exception is quite rare and that is when lets say your last leg is 20/1 and it is backed down to say 7/2 the Cash out will increase in line with that legs chance. One more quirky deceptive thing i have noticed, the cash out offered does not take into account of the prices of the legs that have won (re-BOG) so lets say one of your horses goes out in the market the cash out will stay with the original price. In effect you really need to know how much you have already won before deciding whether to cash out. I can be more complex and give a secondary reason for considering a Cash out and it's this, suppose your first leg loses and your 2nd and third leg win, well it will no longer be a life changing amount unless they are huge odds so again depending on your financial situation it can be considered feasible. Lastly you have the option of partially cashing out but i don't even want to go through those explanations but be aware that it is an option.

Edited November 13, 2023 by Zilzalian
omission

[White Feather]

In January of this year I placed a straight treble in the FA cup - Cardiff v Leeds - Norwich v Blackburn Rovers - Stockport v Wallsall , all 3 winning at HT, so I decided to watch Cardiff v Leeds on TV as Cardiff was leading 2-0 but Leeds were running amok and only a matter  of time they would score. I cashed out while it was still 2-0 and accepted £96.

Leeds drew 2-2 and Cardiff went down to 10 men in the 80th minute. If I wasn't watching the  2nd half of the game, then I would  have probably let my bet run.

Potential returns was over £500. 

[White Feather]

Just now, White Feather said:

In January of this year I placed a straight treble in the FA cup - Cardiff v Leeds - Norwich v Blackburn Rovers - Stockport v Wallsall , all 3 winning at HT, so I decided to watch Cardiff v Leeds on TV as Cardiff was leading 2-0 but Leeds were running amok and only a matter  of time they would score. I cashed out while it was still 2-0 and accepted £96.

Leeds drew 2-2 and Cardiff went down to 10 men in the 80th minute. If I wasn't watching the  2nd half of the game, then I would  have probably let my bet run.

Potential returns was over £500. 

Wallsall and Blackburn won their games.

[harry_rag]

5 minutes ago, White Feather said:

In January of this year I placed a straight treble in the FA cup - Cardiff v Leeds - Norwich v Blackburn Rovers - Stockport v Wallsall , all 3 winning at HT, so I decided to watch Cardiff v Leeds on TV as Cardiff was leading 2-0 but Leeds were running amok and only a matter  of time they would score. I cashed out while it was still 2-0 and accepted £96.

Leeds drew 2-2 and Cardiff went down to 10 men in the 80th minute. If I wasn't watching the  2nd half of the game, then I would  have probably let my bet run.

Potential returns was over £500. 

I'm not sure if that makes a case for or against cash out. It probably makes a case for not watching anything that you bet on! On the face of it I'd say the cashout was skinny relative to the potential pay out when the score was 2-0. All games ebb and flow and there would probably be a point in most where you'd think the losing team was about to score. Sometimes they will, sometimes they won't. The late red could have gone the other way and been followed by a Cardiff winner. If most decisions to cashout are wrong then I suspect that's even more the case for those made when watching a football match where it's all too easy to over react to what's happening in the moment. But then I suspect that the bookies have a bigger edge on inplay bets than they do on pre-game ones. (You should see how much worse the anytime goalscorer prices are once the game goes in play and how long it takes them to drift as much as they should.)

I think there's a tendency to remember the times when the cash out worked out and forget the ones where the original bet came in. It's one of those aspects of betting where no one seems to be able to come up with meaningful figures based on a large number of bets, in terms of how much more or less they've won overall as a result of cashing out.

 

[yossa6133]

52 minutes ago, White Feather said:

In January of this year I placed a straight treble in the FA cup - Cardiff v Leeds - Norwich v Blackburn Rovers - Stockport v Wallsall , all 3 winning at HT, so I decided to watch Cardiff v Leeds on TV as Cardiff was leading 2-0 but Leeds were running amok and only a matter  of time they would score. I cashed out while it was still 2-0 and accepted £96.

Leeds drew 2-2 and Cardiff went down to 10 men in the 80th minute. If I wasn't watching the  2nd half of the game, then I would  have probably let my bet run.

Potential returns was over £500. 

Bet365 pay out when your team goes 2-0 up, so I usually do my football bets on there unless they are way shorter.