Racing Chat - Saturday 14th October

[richard-westwood]

Just started rating the big race Saturday.....as mentioned sometimes the computer throws up dark horses that usually are out of sorts or have been overlooked for whatever reasons .....and the initial first pass with ratings has thrown up a very strong dark horse in ....ZOFFEE 25/1 ....computer is loving this horse .....not final rating but I can't see much changing ...if anything if the ground stays on fast side it could get stronger still ....either way it's enough to invest 5pts Ew ante post 25/1 generally ...at that price computer is saying he's vastly overpriced ...like double what he should be 

[LEE-GRAYS]

The sleepster for me love the horse 12/1 👍

[black rabbit]

Lot Of Joy                                                        2 40 New/                      1/40th of a pt ew            50/1

The Very Man                                                 2 40 New/                      1/40th of a pt ew            40/1

Commander Crouch                                     4 25 New/                      1/40th of a pt ew            12/1

Minnetonka                                                    5 00 new/                       1/40th of a pt ew            33/1

Mr Wagu                                                         2 25 yrk/                         1/40th of a pt ew            25/1

Laugh a Minute                                             2 25 Yrk/                         1/40th of a pt ew            22/1

Tronador                                                        4 15 Chp/                        1/40th of a pt ew            33/1

Hurricane Ivor                                               4 35 Nas/                        1/40th of a pt ew            28/1

 

 

P/L   +173.65 pt

Edited October 14, 2023 by black rabbit
selections

[The Brigadier]

York 1.15

York’s card kicks off with a twelve runner two year old listed race, the Rockingham Stakes run over 6F. Andrew Balding’s Purosangue holds a decent chance but he may be better at the minimum trip so I’ll take him on with the Sir Michael Stoute trained Starlore who may appreciate dropping in trip to 6F. Following a promising win in a Sandown maiden on his debut he appeared to run out of puff close home when finishing a credible 1 3/4L fourth in the Group 3 Solario stakes back at the same track two months later. Richard Kingscote takes over from Ryan Moore who’s needed at Newmarket and he can bounce back to form.

 

STARLORE 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 1.25

The Cesarewitch/Dewhurst card at Newmarket kicks off with a seven runner Group 3 Autumn Stakes run over a mile for two year olds. Charlie Appleby has won the last three runnings of this and can strike again with his Ancient Wisdom who’s recent third to Rosallion in listed company on King George day at Ascot has been franked several times since, with the winner winning in Group 1 company since, the runner up winning in listed company (and runner up in Group 2 company since), the fourth winning a group 3 and even the fifth winning in listed company. The Godolphin juvenile under William Buick will be hard to beat as long as he copes with easier ground.

 

ANCIENT WISDOM 2 points win @ 2/1 bet365

 

Newmarket 2.00

The Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes has attracted eight runners over 7F and we have a warm favourite in the Aidan O’Brien trained City Of Troy who has looked a bit special when bolting up at the July meeting at Newmarket in July. He’s been off since but his trainer has been saying some very positive things about him this week and he will be hard to beat all be it at prohibitive odds. O’Brien has a great record in this race winning it five times in the last decade and this Ryan Moore ridden son of Justify can take this and stake claims to be the best two year old this year. The only negative is if the ground went heavy as he was pulled out in Ireland due to testing conditions.

 

York 2.25

A maximum field of twenty two have declared for this competitive class 2 Heritage Handicap, Coral Sprint Trophy. Many of these ran against each other in the Ayr Gold Cup won by Significantly. He’s been raised 4lb for that but to my eyes won with a fair bit in hand and the booking of smart 3lb claimer Ryan Sexton plus ease in the ground being ideal can give Julie Camacho another big winner. Her other runner Pendleton can also run well on ground that should suit as well.

 

SIGNIFICANTLY 1 point each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 2.40

The feature handicap of the meeting is the 2m 2F Cesarewitch handicap and has attracted a maximum field of thirty four. As one would expect there are many with chances although it is the Irish who have had a strangle hold on the race in the last few years winning four of the last 5 renewals and they can strike agin with the Noel Meade trained Jesse Evans. She had many of these behind her when running a close fourth (beaten 1L) in the Irish version at The Curragh last month over 2m 1F on soft ground so any rain that falls shouldn’t inconvenience this seven year old who only went down by a head in this summer’s Galway Hurdle. She can actually race off of a handicap mark a pound lower than his Irish Cesarewitch fourth and looks excellent each way value with extra places.

 

JESSE EVANS 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

York 3.05

A 1M two year old maiden is a strange race for ITV to broadcast but they are and there is a winner to be found. Without the help of market clues about the unraced Balding, Palmer and Gosden colts the pick has to be the Charlie Johnston trained Align The Stars who’s been runner up in easy ground maidens at Hamilton and Goodwood this autumn. His experience may well count and one of the newcomers will have to be above average to beat the son of Sea The Stars.

 

ALIGN THE STARS 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365

 

Newmarket 3.15

Only five turn out for the 10F Group 3 Zetland Stakes in which the Charlie Appleby runner Arabian Crown will be a short price and hard to beat. He followed an emphatic Sandown maiden victory in July by taking a listed contest at Salisbury the following month by 2 1/4L from Arabic Legend over a mile. He looks all about stamina and the extra two furlongs today look likely to suit. The Aidan O’Brien Curragh maiden winner Gasper De Lemos may be the one to chase him home.

 

ARABIAN CROWN 2 points win @ 6/5 BetVictor

 

York 3.35

A field of thirteen assemble for this class 2 1m 2F 65 yard handicap. Many have chances with the Stoute runner Believe In Stars who is making his handicap debut the most interesting runner though he has no form on soft ground so a better choice is the William Haggas trained La Yakel who is still relatively lightly raced and won on soft ground at Doncaster last time out. He’s up 4lb for that win and can be competitive again here under Cieren Fallon.

 

LA YAKEL 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

Newmarket 3.50

A decent and competitive renewal of the 9F Group 3 Darley Stakes with ten going to post. Simon & Ed Crisford train the selection in the KHK Racing Ltd owned Knight who needs rain, in fact the softer the better and with the forecast suggesting plenty of the wet stuff can open his account for the season in a race that he is well suited by conditions. The three year old grey has finished runner up on his last two starts in Group 2 and listed company at Goodwood and Sandown and with regular rider James Doyle on board is the pick.

 

KNIGHT 2 points win @ 7/2 bet365

 

 

[Darran]

The richest race on turf, The Everest, takes place at Randwick tomorrow morning. Not sure it is the classiest renewal of the contest but it certainly looks a competitive contest and here is my look at the runners.

I Wish I Win - Landed the Golden Eagle last October over 1500m and followed that up with a 2nd and 3rd in G1's over 1000m and 1200m at Flemington last prep before winning the T J Smith over C & D in April. Just had the one prep run for this and that was 6 weeks ago so a bit unusual in Australian terms, but it was a very good 3rd. Handles any ground and clearly a big player. The one concern is actually the fact he is drawn in 1 because he is usually held up and he might need luck in running to win.

Private Eye - Was 2nd in this last year, but that effort does stand out a little with the other form he has shown since. Did win 1st up in the G2 The Shorts here a month ago over 1100m and he did win a G2 coming into this race last year. On balance though I think he will do well to equal last year's effort let alone go one better.

Think About It - Impossible to knock his record as he has won 10 times from 11 starts. He landed 2 G1s at Eagle Farm in May and June over 1300m and 1400m, but he is also 4-4 over 1200m so the trip is no concern at all. Really liked the way he dug in when Hawaii Five Oh came to him 1st up in the G2 Premiere over C&D a couple of weeks ago. Surely going to build on that and has a lovely draw in 5. A big player.

Mazu - Has talented, but has work to do to overturn form with a view of these. To be fair to him he had no luck last time in The Shorts, but even so I can't see him winning this.

Overpass - Landed the first version of The Quokka, which is WA's version of this, at Ascot in April. Followed that up with a 2nd to Giga Kick in a G1 at Doomben the following month. That's good form and he beat Amelia's Jewel in The Quokka who could win another G1 herself at Caulfield tomorrow. Just got caught late on by Private Eye a month ago, but should come on for that although his win in The Quokka was 1st up. Wouldn't be out of this on his two runs last prep. Looks the likely front runner from his inside gate.

Buenos Noches - G3 winner 1st up over C&D in August and then looked unfortunate not to win The Shorts last time as he got no run until 200m and then hit the line very strong. He does need to improve, but has only had 9 starts and based on his two runs this prep he does look still on the upgrade.

Hawaii Five Oh - Was only 6th in The Shorts and then looked like he would win the Premiere last time, but Think About It kept finding more to beat him. That suggests to me he needs to find more to win this.

Alcohol Free - A horse who needs no introduction having been a superstar over here including winning the July Cup last year in great style. New connections paid a fortune for her and she was fav to win a G1 over 1600m on her first Oz run in April here, but she ran poorly to finish 10th of 16. Ran OK in the Premiere to finish 4th, but it didn't strike me as a run to suggest she would find more to reverse the form with Think About It. If she did find the form she showed to win the July Cup then I think she would be a big player, but I'm not sure she is at that level anymore.

In Secret - Won half of her 12 starts including the G1 Newmarket at Flemington in March. Was well beaten behind I Wish I Win in the T J Smith on her next start though. Solid two runs this season with a 2nd in a G3 and 4th in The Shorts. 4 of her 6 wins have been over 1200m and to me those runs will have put her spot on for this race. Looks a contender to me.

Espiona - Won the G1 Coolmore at Rosehill in March although that was over 1500m and she has only won one of her 6 starts over 1200m. Was impressive at G2 level last time over 1400m and I suspect she has the class to win this, but the trip might not be far enough for her.

Shinzo - Landed the biggest 2yo race in Oz, the Golden Slipper in March under Ryan Moore. Moore went back over to ride him in the G1 Golden Rose last month, but got a poor draw and everything went wrong in the race as well. Clearly unexposed and wouldn't surprise me if he ran very well, but with the way the race planned out last time it is hard to be fully certain as to how he compares now he is out of 2yo company.

Cylinder - The other 3yo in the race and was 2nd to Shinzo in the Golden Slipper. We do know however that he has done well as a 3yo because he won his first 2 this prep at G3 at Caulfield and a G2 at Rosehill. He then also ran in the Golden Rose and finished 3rd where he didn't get the best of runs either. He might have improved past Shinzo now.

Verdict - For me Think About It looks the most likely winner. To win 10/11 starts takes some doing at this short of level and I loved the way he dug deep to win last time. I Wish I Win is likely to be the main danger, but I can't help thinking he's going to need a lot of luck from stall 1 given his running style. The Godolphin pair, In Secret and Cylinder look big dangers to me as well. Overpass could be the one at double figures if he can repeat his form from earlier in the year.

Think About It @ 3/1 with Bet365

[richard-westwood]

Taken me over an hour to rate this ...jeez 😁...so hard 

Cesarewitch 

lot of joy.  8.8  40.0 (6/1 place)

Zoffee. 8.6 25/1 already backed 5pt Ew 

Wordsworth. 8.5 44.0 place 6/1 

Emiyn. 8.2 90.0 place 10/1 

very very difficult race as you'd expect with ground conditions and 34 runners .....some silly prices on Betfair so I'll try 3pt wins ..3pt places on all except zoffee who I've already backed .....but jeez good luck to everyone who plays because this is mega hard 😭

[black rabbit]

10 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

York 1.15

York’s card kicks off with a twelve runner two year old listed race, the Rockingham Stakes run over 6F. Andrew Balding’s Purosangue holds a decent chance but he may be better at the minimum trip so I’ll take him on with the Sir Michael Stoute trained Starlore who may appreciate dropping in trip to 6F. Following a promising win in a Sandown maiden on his debut he appeared to run out of puff close home when finishing a credible 1 3/4L fourth in the Group 3 Solario stakes back at the same track two months later. Richard Kingscote takes over from Ryan Moore who’s needed at Newmarket and he can bounce back to form.

 

STARLORE 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 1.25

The Cesarewitch/Dewhurst card at Newmarket kicks off with a seven runner Group 3 Autumn Stakes run over a mile for two year olds. Charlie Appleby has won the last three runnings of this and can strike again with his Ancient Wisdom who’s recent third to Rosallion in listed company on King George day at Ascot has been franked several times since, with the winner winning in Group 1 company since, the runner up winning in listed company (and runner up in Group 2 company since), the fourth winning a group 3 and even the fifth winning in listed company. The Godolphin juvenile under William Buick will be hard to beat as long as he copes with easier ground.

 

ANCIENT WISDOM 2 points win @ 2/1 bet365

 

Newmarket 2.00

The Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes has attracted eight runners over 7F and we have a warm favourite in the Aidan O’Brien trained City Of Troy who has looked a bit special when bolting up at the July meeting at Newmarket in July. He’s been off since but his trainer has been saying some very positive things about him this week and he will be hard to beat all be it at prohibitive odds. O’Brien has a great record in this race winning it five times in the last decade and this Ryan Moore ridden son of Justify can take this and stake claims to be the best two year old this year. The only negative is if the ground went heavy as he was pulled out in Ireland due to testing conditions.

 

York 2.25

A maximum field of twenty two have declared for this competitive class 2 Heritage Handicap, Coral Sprint Trophy. Many of these ran against each other in the Ayr Gold Cup won by Significantly. He’s been raised 4lb for that but to my eyes won with a fair bit in hand and the booking of smart 3lb claimer Ryan Sexton plus ease in the ground being ideal can give Julie Camacho another big winner. Her other runner Pendleton can also run well on ground that should suit as well.

 

SIGNIFICANTLY 1 point each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 2.40

The feature handicap of the meeting is the 2m 2F Cesarewitch handicap and has attracted a maximum field of thirty four. As one would expect there are many with chances although it is the Irish who have had a strangle hold on the race in the last few years winning four of the last 5 renewals and they can strike agin with the Noel Meade trained Jesse Evans. She had many of these behind her when running a close fourth (beaten 1L) in the Irish version at The Curragh last month over 2m 1F on soft ground so any rain that falls shouldn’t inconvenience this seven year old who only went down by a head in this summer’s Galway Hurdle. She can actually race off of a handicap mark a pound lower than his Irish Cesarewitch fourth and looks excellent each way value with extra places.

 

JESSE EVANS 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

York 3.05

A 1M two year old maiden is a strange race for ITV to broadcast but they are and there is a winner to be found. Without the help of market clues about the unraced Balding, Palmer and Gosden colts the pick has to be the Charlie Johnston trained Align The Stars who’s been runner up in easy ground maidens at Hamilton and Goodwood this autumn. His experience may well count and one of the newcomers will have to be above average to beat the son of Sea The Stars.

 

ALIGN THE STARS 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365

 

Newmarket 3.15

Only five turn out for the 10F Group 3 Zetland Stakes in which the Charlie Appleby runner Arabian Crown will be a short price and hard to beat. He followed an emphatic Sandown maiden victory in July by taking a listed contest at Salisbury the following month by 2 1/4L from Arabic Legend over a mile. He looks all about stamina and the extra two furlongs today look likely to suit. The Aidan O’Brien Curragh maiden winner Gasper De Lemos may be the one to chase him home.

 

ARABIAN CROWN 2 points win @ 6/5 BetVictor

 

York 3.35

A field of thirteen assemble for this class 2 1m 2F 65 yard handicap. Many have chances with the Stoute runner Believe In Stars who is making his handicap debut the most interesting runner though he has no form on soft ground so a better choice is the William Haggas trained La Yakel who is still relatively lightly raced and won on soft ground at Doncaster last time out. He’s up 4lb for that win and can be competitive again here under Cieren Fallon.

 

LA YAKEL 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

Newmarket 3.50

A decent and competitive renewal of the 9F Group 3 Darley Stakes with ten going to post. Simon & Ed Crisford train the selection in the KHK Racing Ltd owned Knight who needs rain, in fact the softer the better and with the forecast suggesting plenty of the wet stuff can open his account for the season in a race that he is well suited by conditions. The three year old grey has finished runner up on his last two starts in Group 2 and listed company at Goodwood and Sandown and with regular rider James Doyle on board is the pick.

 

KNIGHT 2 points win @ 7/2 bet365

 

 

hi brig { me again } thhere was a page up on the cesarewitch by richard  days ago  i posted selections on it following on from his post

can you please move it accross like last time and thanks in advance   be lucky   B R

[black rabbit]

44 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Taken me over an hour to rate this ...jeez 😁...so hard 

Cesarewitch 

lot of joy.  8.8  40.0 (6/1 place)

Zoffee. 8.6 25/1 already backed 5pt Ew 

Wordsworth. 8.5 44.0 place 6/1 

Emiyn. 8.2 90.0 place 10/1 

very very difficult race as you'd expect with ground conditions and 34 runners .....some silly prices on Betfair so I'll try 3pt wins ..3pt places on all except zoffee who I've already backed .....but jeez good luck to everyone who plays because this is mega hard 😭

richard i posted allready on your other page earlyer in the week { see we'r  in the same parish } 😄

[richard-westwood]

47 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

richard i posted allready on your other page earlyer in the week { see we'r  in the same parish } 😄

Yyyeeesss...😁. ....it's nailed on then .....40/1 winner ...lol 🤣..cmon you beauty !!

Edited October 13, 2023 by richard-westwood

[black rabbit]

2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Yyyeeesss...😁. ....it's nailed on then .....40/1 winner ...lol 🤣..cmon you beauty !!

hmmm  i think the weather may have done for her its going to be heavy id say / think my other one will handle it better

but let the gods decide as they say  🙂

[richard-westwood]

Another killer of a race ....

Coral sprint trophy 

Apollo one 9.0 15.0 

Bielsa.  8.8 

Mr wagyu.  8.7 

Kings Lynn. 8.6 

Magical spirit.  8.4 

Wobwobwob.  8.3 

Another crazy open race .....in these types of sprints I think you really need to be near a rail so you don't lose any ground wandering about in the centre because every single yard counts.....so 

Appolo one is drawn 22 

Mr wagyu. 5 

Bielsa.  9 

Magical spirit  12 

Kings Lynn. 18 

So for the case of trying to narrow the race to best bets I'm going to omit the centrally drawn bielsa and magical spirit and go for 

Appolo one 

Mr wagyu  

Kings Lynn 

I really like appolo one and I think he deserves a big race ... .my ratings have downgraded Mr wagyu in recent times and now he's top 3 ...I think he wants a fast run 6f on soft .   And he gets that tomorrow ....player ..  .very interesting race ....again good luck if you play another toughie 

Apollo one 5pts 15.0 

Kings Lynn 5pts 30.0 

Mr wagyu. 5pts 29.0

[richard-westwood]

7 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

hmmm  i think the weather may have done for her its going to be heavy id say / think my other one will handle it better

but let the gods decide as they say  🙂

The computer rated on soft and still came up with that so I gotta trust it lol 😆

[richard-westwood]

30 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Another killer of a race ....

Coral sprint trophy 

Apollo one 9.0 15.0 

Bielsa.  8.8 

Mr wagyu.  8.7 

Kings Lynn. 8.6 

Magical spirit.  8.4 

Wobwobwob.  8.3 

Another crazy open race .....in these types of sprints I think you really need to be near a rail so you don't lose any ground wandering about in the centre because every single yard counts.....so 

Appolo one is drawn 22 

Mr wagyu. 5 

Bielsa.  9 

Magical spirit  12 

Kings Lynn. 18 

So for the case of trying to narrow the race to best bets I'm going to omit the centrally drawn bielsa and magical spirit and go for 

Appolo one 

Mr wagyu  

Kings Lynn 

I really like appolo one and I think he deserves a big race ... .my ratings have downgraded Mr wagyu in recent times and now he's top 3 ...I think he wants a fast run 6f on soft .   And he gets that tomorrow ....player ..  .very interesting race ....again good luck if you play another toughie 

Apollo one 5pts 15.0 

Kings Lynn 5pts 30.0 

Mr wagyu. 5pts 29.0

And forecasts all 3 ..let's go for it 😆

[black rabbit]

47 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

hmmm  i think the weather may have done for her its going to be heavy id say / think my other one will handle it better

but let the gods decide as they say  🙂

 

[Tedthewolf]

2,25 York fancy 3  e/w in this but only putting one up till i get 6 places BOG

1pt e/w  MAGICAL SPIRIT 33/1 6p not bog  will love the ground i think the draw is ok  mark in low 90's is fine can forgive bad run lto in the Ayr gold  cup has won and been placed in these big handicaps  can't see it go off 33's so have jumped in early without bog disappointed corals only paying 5 places in this  race   anyway can put bad run behind him and go well at a very generous price imo.

Edit- 2,25 York 2pts e/w  MR WAGYU 14/1 6p bog  would have like a bigger price  but hopefully will drift a bit looks to have a really big chance off current weight over due a win!!

2.40  NM  2 e/w  for me GOSHEN has a bit of  class  over hurdle looks  to have a very strong  chance in this not overly happy with 11/1  but  bog and  6 places helps a bit (10/1 8places with skybet  for anyone who they still let bet there!!!) 2pts e/w and 1.5pts e/w on 66/1 shot THE GRAND VISIR  is way, way over priced and will deffo outrun its price imho  great place chance imo again anyone with skybet can get 8 place its 6p bog for me.

Edited October 14, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[The Brigadier]

3 hours ago, black rabbit said:

hi brig { me again } thhere was a page up on the cesarewitch by richard  days ago  i posted selections on it following on from his post

can you please move it accross like last time and thanks in advance   be lucky   B R

Done 

[LEE-GRAYS]

2.40 Newmarket 16/1 e/w 🤞👍

[Sporting Sam]

14 hours ago, Darran said:

The richest race on turf, The Everest, takes place at Randwick tomorrow morning. Not sure it is the classiest renewal of the contest but it certainly looks a competitive contest and here is my look at the runners.

I Wish I Win - Landed the Golden Eagle last October over 1500m and followed that up with a 2nd and 3rd in G1's over 1000m and 1200m at Flemington last prep before winning the T J Smith over C & D in April. Just had the one prep run for this and that was 6 weeks ago so a bit unusual in Australian terms, but it was a very good 3rd. Handles any ground and clearly a big player. The one concern is actually the fact he is drawn in 1 because he is usually held up and he might need luck in running to win.

Private Eye - Was 2nd in this last year, but that effort does stand out a little with the other form he has shown since. Did win 1st up in the G2 The Shorts here a month ago over 1100m and he did win a G2 coming into this race last year. On balance though I think he will do well to equal last year's effort let alone go one better.

Think About It - Impossible to knock his record as he has won 10 times from 11 starts. He landed 2 G1s at Eagle Farm in May and June over 1300m and 1400m, but he is also 4-4 over 1200m so the trip is no concern at all. Really liked the way he dug in when Hawaii Five Oh came to him 1st up in the G2 Premiere over C&D a couple of weeks ago. Surely going to build on that and has a lovely draw in 5. A big player.

Mazu - Has talented, but has work to do to overturn form with a view of these. To be fair to him he had no luck last time in The Shorts, but even so I can't see him winning this.

Overpass - Landed the first version of The Quokka, which is WA's version of this, at Ascot in April. Followed that up with a 2nd to Giga Kick in a G1 at Doomben the following month. That's good form and he beat Amelia's Jewel in The Quokka who could win another G1 herself at Caulfield tomorrow. Just got caught late on by Private Eye a month ago, but should come on for that although his win in The Quokka was 1st up. Wouldn't be out of this on his two runs last prep. Looks the likely front runner from his inside gate.

Buenos Noches - G3 winner 1st up over C&D in August and then looked unfortunate not to win The Shorts last time as he got no run until 200m and then hit the line very strong. He does need to improve, but has only had 9 starts and based on his two runs this prep he does look still on the upgrade.

Hawaii Five Oh - Was only 6th in The Shorts and then looked like he would win the Premiere last time, but Think About It kept finding more to beat him. That suggests to me he needs to find more to win this.

Alcohol Free - A horse who needs no introduction having been a superstar over here including winning the July Cup last year in great style. New connections paid a fortune for her and she was fav to win a G1 over 1600m on her first Oz run in April here, but she ran poorly to finish 10th of 16. Ran OK in the Premiere to finish 4th, but it didn't strike me as a run to suggest she would find more to reverse the form with Think About It. If she did find the form she showed to win the July Cup then I think she would be a big player, but I'm not sure she is at that level anymore.

In Secret - Won half of her 12 starts including the G1 Newmarket at Flemington in March. Was well beaten behind I Wish I Win in the T J Smith on her next start though. Solid two runs this season with a 2nd in a G3 and 4th in The Shorts. 4 of her 6 wins have been over 1200m and to me those runs will have put her spot on for this race. Looks a contender to me.

Espiona - Won the G1 Coolmore at Rosehill in March although that was over 1500m and she has only won one of her 6 starts over 1200m. Was impressive at G2 level last time over 1400m and I suspect she has the class to win this, but the trip might not be far enough for her.

Shinzo - Landed the biggest 2yo race in Oz, the Golden Slipper in March under Ryan Moore. Moore went back over to ride him in the G1 Golden Rose last month, but got a poor draw and everything went wrong in the race as well. Clearly unexposed and wouldn't surprise me if he ran very well, but with the way the race planned out last time it is hard to be fully certain as to how he compares now he is out of 2yo company.

Cylinder - The other 3yo in the race and was 2nd to Shinzo in the Golden Slipper. We do know however that he has done well as a 3yo because he won his first 2 this prep at G3 at Caulfield and a G2 at Rosehill. He then also ran in the Golden Rose and finished 3rd where he didn't get the best of runs either. He might have improved past Shinzo now.

Verdict - For me Think About It looks the most likely winner. To win 10/11 starts takes some doing at this short of level and I loved the way he dug deep to win last time. I Wish I Win is likely to be the main danger, but I can't help thinking he's going to need a lot of luck from stall 1 given his running style. The Godolphin pair, In Secret and Cylinder look big dangers to me as well. Overpass could be the one at double figures if he can repeat his form from earlier in the year.

Think About It @ 3/1 with Bet365

Hi there and thanks for putting this up.

my angle here is the form and the draw. I think Alcohol free will retain ability in time but the transition to a new world is massive and training methods nutrition etc is so different. He needs to reach racing weight over there and acclimatise fully. That said it’s all factored into his massive price over 66/1. Espiona under Hugh Bowman looks interesting having won the coolmore and zac purton is also over from Hong Kong.

ESPONIA 

Win

THINK ABOUT IT

ten from eleven hard to oppose on that form.

Win

ALCHOL FREE

Each way

group 1 winnner in July last year and can’t help thinking it’s too early in career to hit the straps running here but may well be under the radar finished third at goodwood to one of the best horses in recent years on last English appearance.

good luck and thank you again 

 

Edited October 14, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

10,372,484.41
sterling to the winner. That is some insane prize money.
It makes the Melbourne cup look like the racing league at lingfield on a Thursday night.

The starting price of the winner was some value. Darran  thank you again. 👍 

Edited October 14, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[LEE-GRAYS]

Last day of the lucky 31 challenge somehow we are still +£1 so going to give @Carole-dawney day off and play a captains innings 😂

[Darran]

1 hour ago, Sporting Sam said:

10,372,484.41
sterling to the winner. That is some insane prize money.
It makes the Melbourne cup look like the racing league at lingfield on a Thursday night.

The starting price of the winner was some value. Darran  thank you again. 👍 

No worries. I think alcohol free has gone and they would be better off retiring her and breeding from her. That’s 2 poor runs and 1 average run now in Australia from her.

[azzybear]

whistle and flute 11.05 France 

[azzybear]

geremina 2.40 ew 

[azzybear]

Wordsworth 2.40 ew 

[azzybear]

lady lou 11.35 France 

[azzybear]

half dozen 12.20 Willie Mullins horse running in France today

[White Feather]

Vino Victrix  - 14:40 Newmarket - 16/1 -bet 365 - paying 6 places

Killybegs Warrior  - 15:35 York - 11/1 - bet 365 - paying 4 places

2 x singles - each way double.

[The Equaliser]

B/Fwd MTD -10.95 YTD -70.85

2 x L15's & 0.25 ew accas on the Daily L15 = 6 points

2.40 Nm Lot Of Joy 0.50 ew at 22/1 6p Bet365

4.25 Nm Welcome Dream 1 pt win at 7/1 with Bet365 (my PL Nap)

12 races to feast upon for a mere 8 points outlay (pity I have to go out)

Good luck to @The Brigadier and @richard-westwood and @Sporting Sam, though I wish someone would come up with a method for selecting horses around "pace" in the race. We can't have everything I suppose.

 

[richard-westwood]

8 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

B/Fwd MTD -10.95 YTD -70.85

2 x L15's & 0.25 ew accas on the Daily L15 = 6 points

2.40 Nm Lot Of Joy 0.50 ew at 22/1 6p Bet365

4.25 Nm Welcome Dream 1 pt win at 7/1 with Bet365 (my PL Nap)

12 races to feast upon for a mere 8 points outlay (pity I have to go out)

Good luck to @The Brigadier and @richard-westwood and @Sporting Sam, though I wish someone would come up with a method for selecting horses around "pace" in the race. We can't have everything I suppose.

 

There's your opportunity ....use the atr racecard pace chart and have some fun .....who knows what u might stumble across 😁

[Sporting Sam]

Hexham 1335

V Twelve

u some girl 👧 

both each way

endofconversation

win

the big outsider in a race where Lucinda Russell’s odds on favourite could well win easily. But always look for something different…..

 

Edited October 14, 2023 by Sporting Sam