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Racing chat -weds 11th Oct


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Back to punchestown after winning all of the first five races yesterday.

 

The first race and I can’t have the new favourite who in two meetings at a higher level got nowhere near the eagerly awaited non runner a dream to share at bumper level.

Take 4/7 about the new favourite if you like but this is nothing like yesterday’s race the only straw to clutch at is the drop in class 💧 but the impending deluge will wash that straw right away.

Qatar spirit
IDOL

The second point is that Noah and Nellie were due to sailing by to pick up any volunteers to get onboard the skylark due to the tonne of wet stuff being laid by paddy the cloud.

Qatar spirit

 who has been around since the first flood looks a viable alternative. An all weather  winner in  France about 2018, this horse will sluice through any mud and would be the last up the ramp. Idol is ex Willie Mullins and these ones always take a while to bed in but won a bumper  at Roscommon in the fashion of a Mullins prepared world beater (I’d need to check if he was anchored by Patrick or Paul or given an easy time with a claimer ),  was unplaced behind a stablemate so that looks like a gentle intro after a break and I’d expect much more  on hurdle debut for Sam curling.

Qatar spirit

each way

IDOL

win

 

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Going for doubles and treble on the 3 bumper races today

1720 punchestown     my great mate  6-4         sire jukebox jury top stayer

1735 ludlow dantes inferno 5-1       sire sixties icon again top stayer and owned/ridden/trained by the Nicholls family

1745 sedgefield    micks jet   2-1  P.Kirby loves winners here , won it`s last bumper at Cheltenham by 9 lengths .

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Idol ran a dream race and although eventually out with the washing, is one for the blue book.

 I was unfair to  facile mode and it was indeed just like yesterday’s race.

punchestown 4:10

the non runner splits the field and either gives the bottom two an impossible task or brings one of them right into it.

the ratings suggest they have no chance the weights and the physics says different 

Hurricane Georgie

win

Panda Boy

win

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Nottingham 1622
Harswell duke

Each way
Has to be considered on these terms.

Highest drawn highest weighted.

The draw data reflects advantage in recent running goes to the low numbers but the high draw dominates when the going cuts up as in two or three years back in consecutive runnnings.
I’m not watching racing right now but rain belts bare forecast all over the place and if the ground goes heavy this class dropper is in a very good place to take advantage. Johnny peatey claims three and the last run for this decent horse was in much better company on heavy going .

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Kempton 1830

Mafnood

hows the guvnor

htg runs in the draw data stall. While mafnood is in last years winning stall and also has the winning jockey, Jim Crowley who doesn’t race too often and gets the best rides. Doesn’t always execute them but trusted to race well here.

 

Mafnood win

reverse forecast with how’s the guvnor

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Kempton 1900

HAMNET

each way

french newcomers very rarely prove to be exceptional and this cheap purchase is nothing out of the ordinary. But entry point is interesting given a handicap debut on yard debut.

SHEEROOD

PORT ERIN

BOTH WIN

One on potential the other form and the jockey booking.

Adding a third win horse

Nasim

win

Makes debut for new yard and drops down to winning mark from Micheal Appleby part of a group of reciprocal trainers who set up horses to win soon after leaving yard. This one may well be “oven ready “

 

Edited by Sporting Sam
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First thing first for this race the newcomers….

Tartan Skirt         20:00        Kempton        OMeara, D        Loughnane, David        11%        16%   
    Ithra        20:00        Kempton        Haynes, Alice        Watson, Archie        10%        15%   
    Cooperation         20:00        Kempton        Murphy, Mike / Keady, Michael        Attwater, M J        19%        7%   
    Al Ameen         20:00        Kempton        Boughey, George        Fanshawe, J R        9%        20%   
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7 hours ago, Sporting Sam said:

Back to punchestown after winning all of the first five races yesterday.

 

The first race and I can’t have the new favourite who in two meetings at a higher level got nowhere near the eagerly awaited non runner a dream to share at bumper level.

Take 4/7 about the new favourite if you like but this is nothing like yesterday’s race the only straw to clutch at is the drop in class 💧 but the impending deluge will wash that straw right away.

Qatar spirit
IDOL

The second point is that Noah and Nellie were due to sailing by to pick up any volunteers to get onboard the skylark due to the tonne of wet stuff being laid by paddy the cloud.

Qatar spirit

 who has been around since the first flood looks a viable alternative. An all weather  winner in  France about 2018, this horse will sluice through any mud and would be the last up the ramp. Idol is ex Willie Mullins and these ones always take a while to bed in but won a bumper  at Roscommon in the fashion of a Mullins prepared world beater (I’d need to check if he was anchored by Patrick or Paul or given an easy time with a claimer ),  was unplaced behind a stablemate so that looks like a gentle intro after a break and I’d expect much more  on hurdle debut for Sam curling.

Qatar spirit

each way

IDOL

win

 

Well done yesterday so what's your PL for the last , say 3 months now? 

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13 minutes ago, roger2256 said:

Well done yesterday so what's your PL for the last , say 3 months now? 

Same as it was before I’m not claiming massive profits or wins at unobtainable odds. I’ve made it very clear I’m  operating at a loss. I’ll land  a tricast or a treble then start talking profits I’m ok with what I’m about. We are not all in the game to win. I believe I’ll get where I’m going and that’s good enough for me.

I give insights into racing and plenty of winners and at the moment that is what I’m about.

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Al ameen creeps up the inner rail and steal the race ten days short of a year off. Another winner. Nose the distance and treacherous was very unlucky but this was a hit which stopped a very likely next time out winner. Very well back this evening from 12/1 into 4/1 apologies I posted it as each way. Not much time to the last race. People still asking my profit and loss  42 winners in eleven days later. Forget my profit and my loss get on my selections. They won’t be here much longer.

 

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Kempton 2030

ROMANAVICH

No NEWS

Both win 

The favourite  is very hard to oppose thank goodness for draw data gives two alternatives but be warned the favourite has all in his favour here. But always looking for alternative ways of thinking 🤔 

****************************

Had to settle with the two tonight. First three home interesting in the last. all in the bottom part of the handicap and spread  (perfectly) right across the field. 

Al Ameen  354 days off but held  up and clearly in good sorts. Got up to score. And although a nose winner laid out to win. Well nailed effort.

Port Erin 

knocking on door lately and strong record on all weather places or won each visit.

Things are settling down and five winners tomorrow on a day when physics are at their strongest as it is the last day before the weekend starts and many outfits consider it the last day operationally of the week and deliver their horses tomorrow………

Edited by Sporting Sam
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32 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Anybody can select 42 winners in eleven days, just pick the favourite, there's been 123 of them that have won

Do it then. When did you select the first five winners at punchestown? Or 43 winners in eleven days if it is so easy?  And were there any 33/1 20/1 16/1 winners in there ? 

Edited by Sporting Sam
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The point is simple. None of us are interested in how many winners anyone else has posted. Not as a bare metric devoid of any context.

It begs the obvious questions; from how many selections (strike rate) and what was the return (profit or loss).

Nobody’s obliged to keep those records but if you’re going to insist on quoting numbers then you’re going to get asked to quote the ones that matter, the ones that anyone gives a flying one about.

Otherwise it ends up becoming a source of friction, as we seem to be about to find out.

 

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5 minutes ago, Sporting Sam said:

Do it then. When did you select the first five winners at punchestown? Or 43 winners in eleven days if it is so easy?  And were there any 33/1 20/1 16/1 winners in there ? 

I’m confused with this thread ,, Your selecting up to 4 horses a race ,most of the time making a loss ,,then saying “there’s another winner “ what’s the point 

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