Racing Chat - Wednesday May 10th

[The Brigadier]

The ITV cameras are at the Roodeye for the Chester three day May meeting where the ground is currently good to soft but with plenty of showers around this week could easily soften. It’s the Oaks trial today at 14:40.  Here’s my thoughts on the day’s terrestrial action.

 

Chester 13:30

The Chester three day May meeting kicks off with the 5F Lily Agnes Stakes for two year olds. As always a low draw is mightily important especially on the first two days before the rails are taken in. Local handler Hugo Palmer saddles a brace of runners in the unraced Tierney ridden by Oisin Murphy (stall 5) and last month’s Musselburgh winner Balon D’Or (stall 11). The form of the latter has worked out well with the runner up and fourth both winning since but I could never back a horse drawn out that wide over 5F and I’ll be looking elsewhere for a bet. Amy Murphy’s Myconian has already won a race in France, for which he’s penalised 3lb for today, but disappointed on his British debut. The horse that takes my eye is the Richard Hannon trained Ziggy’s Phoenix who has the best draw in stall one especially as she showed plenty of early toe when making most to win at Ripon on soft ground under Joe Fanning last month. That form is probably slightly inferior to Balon D’Or’s but with the ideal berth can make all if not most. Alice Hayne’s Ziggy’s Dream (watch your betting slips there!) also made all when winning on her racecourse debut at Doncaster 11 days ago and from stall 6 will also be pushing for a share of the lead whilst the Irish challenger Parkside Boy is very hard to get a handle on as he won a four runner maiden on the all-weather at Dundalk last month beating an odds on shot of Aidan O’Briens.

With everything in her favour it’s Ziggy’s Phoenix for me.

 

ZIGGYS PHOENIX 2 points win @ 11/4 bet365

 

 

Chester 14:05

A dozen three year old speedsters go to post for this class 3 5F 76-95 handicap. Without a doubt the one they all have to beat is the Billy ‘The Kid’ Loughnane ridden Jer Batt who ran out a comfortable winner at Musselburgh under Loughnane ten days ago and as that was an apprentice handicap gets no penalty here. He has however been given the worst draw in 12 and although I’m already a paid up member of the Billy Loughnane fan club this will be his first ever ride at the Roodeye and I will have to give him a swerve here. On a positive note he’ll take a good percentage out of the market and hopefully make others better value.

Democracy Dilemma did it well under Hollie Doyle at Thirsk 18 days ago and she is replaced by 1000 Guineas winning rider of the weekend Oisin Murphy from stall 8. He can run well but there’s a horse who ran against him last time in the Declan Carroll trained Seantrabh who maybe able to turn the tables now with that run behind him (his first for 179 days) and on 10lb better terms (if taking jockey Zak Wheatley’s claim into account). He faded inside the final furlong that day as if the run was needed and the Tasleet gelding obviously enjoys the mud as he ran out a 3L winner on soft at Catterick as a juvenile. With 4 places and from stall 3 he’s my fancy. The George Boughey trained William Buick ridden Danger Alert has claims although was tailed off on his only run here last season (although the bit did slip from his mouth so he had a valid excuse.)

 

SEANTRABH 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Chester 14:40

Next up is the 1m 3 1/2F listed Cheshire Oaks which has attracted a field of nine. There have been very strong vibes from Ireland over the last fortnight for the Epsom Oaks from the Aidan O’Brien trained Savethelastdance and she’s been backed down into favouritism at around 6/1. She steps up from a maiden win at Leopardstown over 10F on heavy ground six weeks ago to contest this under Ryan Moore with that maiden form working out very well with the two that followed the 2 1/4L winner home winning since.

6 of the 9 hold the Epsom Oaks entry including Ralph Beckett’s Luckin Brew and she maybe the biggest threat to the favourite here. Last seen when runner up to the 100 rated Godolphin colt Local Dynasty in Pontefract’s Silver Tankard Stakes last October she has the assistance of 2000 Guineas winning jockey from the weekend Frankie Dettori in the same partial ownership as Savethelastdance.

This looks all about the favourite and she’s not only a confident selection but it’s worth taking the 6/1 now for the Oaks as a win could see her odds tumble.

 

SAVETHELASTDANCE 4 points win @ 10/11 Unibet

SAVETHELASTDANCE (Epsom Oaks) 2 points win @ 6/1 bet365

 

Chester 15:15

Only five have declared for this year’s renewal of the Boodles Chester Vase, a Group 3 contest run over 1m 4F. We have a very warm favourite in the John and Thady Gosden trained Arrest who can put himself firmly in the Epsom Derby picture by winning. He won’t mind any ease in the ground having chased home the 2000 Guineas 5th Dubai Mile in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud on heavy ground last October. 6L back in third that day was the Aidan O’Brien trained Adelaide River who re-opposes here and it’s hard, on that piece of form, to believe he can turn the tables on his old rival. He could however chase Arrest home today under Ryan Moore. I find it hard to fancy the other three here all of whom are not entered in the Derby. Duke Of Oxford is unbeaten in two all weather starts but this will be a totally different ball game whilst Galactic Jack has officially 24 lb to find with Arrest and the Charlie Johnstone runner Hadrianus, who was runner up to the favourite’s stable mate Epictetus in the Epsom Derby Trial has a squeak.

This should go to Areest and as he’s too short maybe a forecast for him to beat his old advisory Adelaide River is the bet.

 

ARREST to beat ADELAIDE RIVER 1 point straight forecast

 

Chester 15:45

Another sprint handicap this time over 6F for three year olds in this class 3 71-90 handicap which has attracted a maximum field of fourteen.

Once again the draw is a massive factor when determining the outcome with top weight Frankness, a dual course winner not faring well in stall 12 and is overlooked for that reason only in her first handicap. Likely favourite is the Richard Hannon trained Royal Dress who looked an improver when winning a 6F soft ground novice stakes at Doncaster 12 days ago and from stall 3 on his handicap debut looks to hold a major chance.

George Boughey’s California Gem has claims with a run behind him now and his ability to handle soft ground, the softer the better for him whilst the bottom weight Tasever of Tim Easterby’s is at the right end of the handicap and is well drawn although he’ll need to step up on his recent form to feature here.

One horse I think could run well but only if the rain stayed away is the Adrian Nicholls trained King’s Crown who is unproven on soft ground but ran a stormer for a 40/1 chance on his re-appearance when 5th only beaten 4L in a better class 6F handicap than this at Newmarket that has worked out very well. The runner up that day Yacowlef and third Shoukdhavebeenaring both won nice races last week at Newmarket and from stall 8 is worth a small each way wager on that last run alone.

 

ROYAL DRESS 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

KING’S CROWN 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365

[calva decoy]

Think I'll wait until Wednesday's going report & to see what Andrew Balding is running from a low draw 5-7f over the 3 days & not forgetting the good doctor Koukash who loves a winner at the meeting but good luck to all .

[The Brigadier]

13 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Think I'll wait until Wednesday's going report & to see what Andrew Balding is running from a low draw 5-7f over the 3 days & not forgetting the good doctor Koukash who loves a winner at the meeting but good luck to all .

Not sure they'll be any Koukash runners this week, the chaps not had a runner this year and the rumours are hes chucked it in 

[kensland]

Double. 

4.30.Kelso.Geromine      5/2

4.55.Chest.Paws for Thought    10/3

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited May 10, 2023 by kensland

[Villa Chris]

Kelso 1.40  Just Don’t Know 11/2 2nd 

Kelso 4.30 Cracking Destiny 9/1

Fontwell 6.45 Sirobbie 4/1 won 

 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +24.17

Been absent for a bit but have records on betting account to prove profit/loss if anyone requires them for proof . 
 

15 points staked 

Edited May 10, 2023 by Villa Chris

[calva decoy]

20 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Not sure they'll be any Koukash runners this week, the chaps not had a runner this year and the rumours are hes chucked it in 

Cheers for info , I didn't know that , always look out for his silks at this meeting as he generally bags a winner , I know he has / had something to do with Salford Rugby League .

2.40 WINTERCRACK 25/1 eway Bet365 .

Out of Pam Sly's in form yard , lowest rated here but out of Cracksman & Speciosa trip looks ideal & the more rain the better .

👎 well out of her depth & went out too fast , drop back to 8-10f should help but O'Brien's 22L winner looked very good but what did it beat ?

Edited May 10, 2023 by calva decoy

[calva decoy]

39 minutes ago, kensland said:

Double. 

4.30. Geromine      5/2

4.55. Paws for Thought    10/3

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Good luck , PAWS FOR THOUGHT was best priced 9/2 with Bet365 yesterday at 4pm , 1st & 2nd in race last 2 years .

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Been absent for a bit but have records on betting account to prove profit/loss if anyone requires them for proof . 

Thanks for letting us know what the P+L is, it is very helpful

[Sporting Sam]

Figures09-454978

Sha Tin 1215

Fingers crossed 🤞

Each way

In form trainer.

This runner drops in grade for dirt debut.

Interesting ( to me) missed prior appointment.

Last time that happened posted a fourth place on return.

Additional headgear on to go with usual tongue tie. Most important factor dropped to lowest mark. The only thing I haven’t checked is the racing weight. Not relevant as he’s yet to win. Retains jockey partnership. Drawn in stall 8, tendency to wander so either needs to stay out wide or find the rail early. I've also watched a barrier trial for this runner on grass and put in a good stint with not a little speed but hanging tendency a worry.

Yet to place so priced accordingly.

Ton of research and he didn't get close.

Edited May 10, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

Very poor form from me the previous race having put up ZACIAN just a few weeks who outstayed today's wide margin winner in spectacular fashion.

Sha tin 1245

Life is good 

Each way

Harry Bentley rides here from stall 3 was known as , De Velara and bolted up at Naas last year. No show in six runs here.

Shining fortune

Win

Loves it here and confirmed front runner.

Edited May 10, 2023 by sporting sam

[Libby48]

Chester 15:45 pm Radio Goo Goo Bet365

Chester 16:55 pm - Oso Rapido Bet365

Edited May 10, 2023 by Libby48

[Le Doyen]

My Chester festival will depend on how successful Mr Hugo Palmer is.....six runners today!

[Sporting Sam]

Gowran park 1.20

Toughen Up

Win

Went close latest and joint top rated here. Billy Lee rides.

Good luck le doyen!!

Edited May 10, 2023 by sporting sam

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Kempton 7.30

ADELA OF CHAMPAGNE 

[yossa6133]

On 5/9/2023 at 8:37 AM, The Brigadier said:

 

Chester 14:40

Next up is the 1m 3 1/2F listed Cheshire Oaks which has attracted a field of nine. There have been very strong vibes from Ireland over the last fortnight for the Epsom Oaks from the Aidan O’Brien trained Savethelastdance and she’s been backed down into favouritism at around 6/1. She steps up from a maiden win at Leopardstown over 10F on heavy ground six weeks ago to contest this under Ryan Moore with that maiden form working out very well with the two that followed the 2 1/4L winner home winning since.

6 of the 9 hold the Epsom Oaks entry including Ralph Beckett’s Luckin Brew and she maybe the biggest threat to the favourite here. Last seen when runner up to the 100 rated Godolphin colt Local Dynasty in Pontefract’s Silver Tankard Stakes last October she has the assistance of 2000 Guineas winning jockey from the weekend Frankie Dettori in the same partial ownership as Savethelastdance.

This looks all about the favourite and she’s not only a confident selection but it’s worth taking the 6/1 now for the Oaks as a win could see her odds tumble.

 

SAVETHELASTDANCE 4 points win @ 10/11 Unibet

SAVETHELASTDANCE (Epsom Oaks) 2 points win @ 6/1 bet365

 

 

Bet365 have Savethelastdance "super boosted" to even money, up to £30 if they give you bonuses.

[Sporting Sam]

Chester 2.40

There's the door 

Each way

Outside chance

But hit the lights in good order latest 

[Sporting Sam]

There's the door missed the break by ten lengths when the starter failed to delay opening the stalls. Still finished as many or more lengths behind the winner. But puts into perspective how far ahead of the field he was on level terms, a very taking performance and is better than a handicapper.

[Alastair]

On 5/9/2023 at 8:37 AM, The Brigadier said:

The ITV cameras are at the Roodeye for the Chester three day May meeting where the ground is currently good to soft but with plenty of showers around this week could easily soften. It’s the Oaks trial today at 14:40.  Here’s my thoughts on the day’s terrestrial action.

 

Chester 13:30

The Chester three day May meeting kicks off with the 5F Lily Agnes Stakes for two year olds. As always a low draw is mightily important especially on the first two days before the rails are taken in. Local handler Hugo Palmer saddles a brace of runners in the unraced Tierney ridden by Oisin Murphy (stall 5) and last month’s Musselburgh winner Balon D’Or (stall 11). The form of the latter has worked out well with the runner up and fourth both winning since but I could never back a horse drawn out that wide over 5F and I’ll be looking elsewhere for a bet. Amy Murphy’s Myconian has already won a race in France, for which he’s penalised 3lb for today, but disappointed on his British debut. The horse that takes my eye is the Richard Hannon trained Ziggy’s Phoenix who has the best draw in stall one especially as she showed plenty of early toe when making most to win at Ripon on soft ground under Joe Fanning last month. That form is probably slightly inferior to Balon D’Or’s but with the ideal berth can make all if not most. Alice Hayne’s Ziggy’s Dream (watch your betting slips there!) also made all when winning on her racecourse debut at Doncaster 11 days ago and from stall 6 will also be pushing for a share of the lead whilst the Irish challenger Parkside Boy is very hard to get a handle on as he won a four runner maiden on the all-weather at Dundalk last month beating an odds on shot of Aidan O’Briens.

With everything in her favour it’s Ziggy’s Phoenix for me.

 

ZIGGYS PHOENIX 2 points win @ 11/4 bet365

 

 

Chester 14:05

A dozen three year old speedsters go to post for this class 3 5F 76-95 handicap. Without a doubt the one they all have to beat is the Billy ‘The Kid’ Loughnane ridden Jer Batt who ran out a comfortable winner at Musselburgh under Loughnane ten days ago and as that was an apprentice handicap gets no penalty here. He has however been given the worst draw in 12 and although I’m already a paid up member of the Billy Loughnane fan club this will be his first ever ride at the Roodeye and I will have to give him a swerve here. On a positive note he’ll take a good percentage out of the market and hopefully make others better value.

Democracy Dilemma did it well under Hollie Doyle at Thirsk 18 days ago and she is replaced by 1000 Guineas winning rider of the weekend Oisin Murphy from stall 8. He can run well but there’s a horse who ran against him last time in the Declan Carroll trained Seantrabh who maybe able to turn the tables now with that run behind him (his first for 179 days) and on 10lb better terms (if taking jockey Zak Wheatley’s claim into account). He faded inside the final furlong that day as if the run was needed and the Tasleet gelding obviously enjoys the mud as he ran out a 3L winner on soft at Catterick as a juvenile. With 4 places and from stall 3 he’s my fancy. The George Boughey trained William Buick ridden Danger Alert has claims although was tailed off on his only run here last season (although the bit did slip from his mouth so he had a valid excuse.)

 

SEANTRABH 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Chester 14:40

Next up is the 1m 3 1/2F listed Cheshire Oaks which has attracted a field of nine. There have been very strong vibes from Ireland over the last fortnight for the Epsom Oaks from the Aidan O’Brien trained Savethelastdance and she’s been backed down into favouritism at around 6/1. She steps up from a maiden win at Leopardstown over 10F on heavy ground six weeks ago to contest this under Ryan Moore with that maiden form working out very well with the two that followed the 2 1/4L winner home winning since.

6 of the 9 hold the Epsom Oaks entry including Ralph Beckett’s Luckin Brew and she maybe the biggest threat to the favourite here. Last seen when runner up to the 100 rated Godolphin colt Local Dynasty in Pontefract’s Silver Tankard Stakes last October she has the assistance of 2000 Guineas winning jockey from the weekend Frankie Dettori in the same partial ownership as Savethelastdance.

This looks all about the favourite and she’s not only a confident selection but it’s worth taking the 6/1 now for the Oaks as a win could see her odds tumble.

 

SAVETHELASTDANCE 4 points win @ 10/11 Unibet

SAVETHELASTDANCE (Epsom Oaks) 2 points win @ 6/1 bet365

 

Chester 15:15

Only five have declared for this year’s renewal of the Boodles Chester Vase, a Group 3 contest run over 1m 4F. We have a very warm favourite in the John and Thady Gosden trained Arrest who can put himself firmly in the Epsom Derby picture by winning. He won’t mind any ease in the ground having chased home the 2000 Guineas 5th Dubai Mile in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud on heavy ground last October. 6L back in third that day was the Aidan O’Brien trained Adelaide River who re-opposes here and it’s hard, on that piece of form, to believe he can turn the tables on his old rival. He could however chase Arrest home today under Ryan Moore. I find it hard to fancy the other three here all of whom are not entered in the Derby. Duke Of Oxford is unbeaten in two all weather starts but this will be a totally different ball game whilst Galactic Jack has officially 24 lb to find with Arrest and the Charlie Johnstone runner Hadrianus, who was runner up to the favourite’s stable mate Epictetus in the Epsom Derby Trial has a squeak.

This should go to Areest and as he’s too short maybe a forecast for him to beat his old advisory Adelaide River is the bet.

 

ARREST to beat ADELAIDE RIVER 1 point straight forecast

 

Chester 15:45

Another sprint handicap this time over 6F for three year olds in this class 3 71-90 handicap which has attracted a maximum field of fourteen.

Once again the draw is a massive factor when determining the outcome with top weight Frankness, a dual course winner not faring well in stall 12 and is overlooked for that reason only in her first handicap. Likely favourite is the Richard Hannon trained Royal Dress who looked an improver when winning a 6F soft ground novice stakes at Doncaster 12 days ago and from stall 3 on his handicap debut looks to hold a major chance.

George Boughey’s California Gem has claims with a run behind him now and his ability to handle soft ground, the softer the better for him whilst the bottom weight Tasever of Tim Easterby’s is at the right end of the handicap and is well drawn although he’ll need to step up on his recent form to feature here.

One horse I think could run well but only if the rain stayed away is the Adrian Nicholls trained King’s Crown who is unproven on soft ground but ran a stormer for a 40/1 chance on his re-appearance when 5th only beaten 4L in a better class 6F handicap than this at Newmarket that has worked out very well. The runner up that day Yacowlef and third Shoukdhavebeenaring both won nice races last week at Newmarket and from stall 8 is worth a small each way wager on that last run alone.

 

ROYAL DRESS 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

KING’S CROWN 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365

Brilliant advice regarding Savethelastdance. Now 6-4 favourite for The Oaks

[yossa6133]

5 minutes ago, Alastair said:

Brilliant advice regarding Savethelastdance. Now 6-4 favourite for The Oaks

A little bit impressive! Runner up official rating 91 and got routed by 22 lengths.

[The Equaliser]

Have put up an L15 and Acca on the Daily L15 for 2 pts

3.15 Chs Hadrianus 1 pt win at 8.2

3.40 GowP Chimeric 1 pt ew at 8/1 5p

3.45 Ches Califonia Gem 1 pt win at 6.6

4.55 Ches Paws For Thought 1 pt win at 6.6

7.15 Font Bolberry Down 1 pt ew at 16/1 4p

8.30 Km Gwendolina 1 pt ew at 13/2 4p

11 points staked

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No winners today MTD = 23.45 & YTD -93.80

 

Edited May 11, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[Alastair]

35 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

A little bit impressive! Runner up official rating 91 and got routed by 22 lengths.

Obviously the game is not this straightfoward but at around 1.5 pounds per length at this distance that gives the winner a rating of 124 - which wins The Oaks 9 years out of 10.

[Sporting Sam]

Sha Tin 3.50

HAVA NAGEELA

Win

Galaxy witness

Win

Both have strong form going into this final race. Galaxy witness comes out of the hong Kong derby and several runners have returned to turf and won since. This more difficult but has gone well on the all weather before...

Edited May 10, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

Gowran park 4.15

Darkened

Each way

You owe me money

Win

[Tedthewolf]

4.55 CH-2pts e/w ANOTHER BATT 7/1 bog 4paces 1/5 = 4pts

[Sporting Sam]

 

Chester 4.55

Broken spear

Win

Roundhay park

Each way 

Broken spear is drawn in the box seat to win this again off a five pound lower mark than in 2021...

Faye macmanoman on roundhay park is riding brilliantly. She coaxes her horses hands and heels and while it can frustrate some observers, she can get a rare old tune out of her horses on occasions......  But not always....

Edited May 10, 2023 by sporting sam

[The Brigadier]

2 hours ago, Alastair said:

Brilliant advice regarding Savethelastdance. Now 6-4 favourite for The Oaks

Thanks @Alastair

[Sporting Sam]

 

Gowran park 5.25

DOUGLAS DC. 

Win

 

[Villa Chris]

11 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Kelso 1.40  Just Don’t Know 11/2 2nd 

Kelso 4.30 Cracking Destiny 9/1

Fontwell 6.45 Sirobbie 4/1 won 

 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +24.17

Been absent for a bit but have records on betting account to prove profit/loss if anyone requires them for proof . 
 

15 points staked 

10 points profit on the day . Went close with first race just beaten half a length 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 + 34.17

[Sporting Sam]

7.45

Fontwell

Big 'n Better

Each way

Huge absence to overcome.

But a winner when last seen