Racing Chat - Friday 14th April

[The Brigadier]

Day 2 of the Aintree Grand National Meeting with another six quality races on the Mildmay course plus the Topham Chase run over 2m 5F of the Grand National course. The ground remains on the soft side with the official going description calling it good to soft on both courses with soft places on the National course. Here’s my thoughts on the card.

13:45 Aintree

Six have declared for this 3M 1F Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase. The favourite and clearly the most likeliest winner is the Gordon Elliott trained Gerri Colombe who lost his unbeaten record when going down by the shortest of short heads to The Real Whacker at Cheltenham in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. That was a fine effort and he should confirm form with rivals Bronn (4 1/4L back in 3rd) and Galia Des Liteaux (16 1/2L, 5th). The biggest threat to Gerri Colombe may well come from Paul Nicholls’s Complete Unknown who took a competitive 3M handicap apart at Kempton last time and a 10lb rise puts him within 7lb of the Elliott favourite today. Thomas Darby is 0 from 3 at the track and has a bit to find along with outsider Sholokjack. This should be Gerri Colombes for the taking and warrants a good bet under Davy Russell who’s replacing Jordan Gainford who’s been on board for his last three starts.

GERRI COLOMBE 2 points win @ 10/11 bet365

14:20 Aintree

A wide open renewal of the 2m 4F class 1 William Hill Handicap Hurdle with a maximum field of twenty two facing the starter. 12 of the 22 were last seen contesting one of the handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival with Campround who ran 3rd in the Coral Cup maybe the best of them. He is a better horse on good ground but surprisingly coped with soft last time so is a player here despite a 5lb rise in the weights. Under the same ownership of JP McManus is Nicky Henderson’s No Ordinary Joe who ran 2nd in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham and despite a 4lb rise in the weights can be competitive here under Nico De Boinville. Just behind that day was Irish challenger Buddy One who is another possible. A runner that is worth keeping an eye on and one that I’m interested in is the John McConnell trained novice Fennor Cross who enters handicaps off of a reasonable looking mark. Last seen when outclassed in running 11th in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham where he would have been closer but for a mistake three out. His trainer stated recently that a mark of 135 ‘looks workable’ and he could well be overpriced. Lucy Wadham’s mare Martello Sky is an outsider I want on my side as well. She’s kept decent mares company this season and has fallen 5lb surprisingly which means she’s now 3lb lower than her last handicap win which came at Cheltenham in December 2021 with the booking of Rachael Blackmore very much taking the eye. I can’t resist a small each way wager on her with the Irish novice Fennor Cross my other play in a race where we could quite easily see an upset.

MARTELLO SKY 1 point each way @ 25/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

FENNOR CROSS 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

14:55 Aintree

An excellent renewal of the Grade 1 Poundland Top Novices’ Hurdle run over 2M 103 yards of the Mildmay course. Fourteen will face the starter with Henry De Bromhead’s Inthepocket bringing the best piece of form to the table with his last time out fourth (beaten 6 1/4L) in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham where he had Strong Leader (9th), Tahmuras (10th) and Rare Edition (pulled up) in rear. With Rachael Blackmore on board he has to be on one’s shortlist. I’ve always been a fan of Harry Fry’s Altobelli who’s won all three of his starts in the style of a decent performer but this is a big step up in grade and it may just find him out although I am expecting him to run well. Gordon Elliott’s representative Found A Fifty is an improver who could be in the shake up whilst maybe the most interesting runner is the only mare in the race in the shape of Nicky Henderson’s Luccia. She went off a warm favourite for the Mares Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham but appeared to do too much early on, racing too keen under Nico De Boinville. If Nico can settle her better she could be a player here. A tough contest with many holding chances but I’ll stick with the form book and play Inthepocket.

INTHEPOCKET 1 point each way @ 9/2 BetVictor

15:30 Aintree

The 2M 4F Marsh Chase is next up, formerly known as the Melling Chase we have a field of seven this time around. Joseph O’Brien’s Fakir D’oudairies has won this race for the last two years and has no doubt been trained for this. He sports first time cheek pieces and should run well although the trainers race planner Kevin Blake was hardly brimming with confidence when asked about his chances earlier this week and having finished behind his main threat here Pic D’Orhy last time out looks poor value to me.

Paul Nicholls saddles a brace here in Hitman, who chased Fakir D’oudairies home in this race last year to the tune of 5 1/2L and was last seen when 3rd in the Ryanair at Cheltenham (French Dynamite 2 3/4L behind). Nicholls’ number one jockey Cobden has been in the saddle on 4 of his last 5 starts but has opted to ride Nicholls’ other runner Pic D’Orhy here who looks the one to be on. Since wind surgery before the start of this season he’s won 3 of his 4 starts (twice in grade 2 company) prior to running runner up to a revitalised Shishkin in the Betfair Chase at Ascot. He had Fakir D’oudairies 7L back in third that day and to these eyes should be clear favourite. Millers Bank likes this track but was way behind the selection at Ascot whilst Minella Drama and Fugitif will need to step their form up to worry the front ones here.

PIC D’ORHY 2 points win @ 9/4 bet365

16:05 Aintree

A maximum field of thirty face the starter for this years Topham Chase run over 2m 5F of the Grand National fences. Willie Mullins has won two of the last three renewals and saddles the top four in the handicap here with possibly top weight Haut En Couleurs the best of the quartet. My pair against the field both have experience of these unique fences. Al Dancer has been saved for this having last been seen winning the Grand Sefton over these fences and trip back in November. Only 5lb higher Sam Thomas’s grey looks sure to run well. The other I like is Dan’s Skelton’s Ashtown Lad who took the Becher in fine style over these fences back in December and is now only 6lb higher. He’s been kept away from fences on both starts since to preserve his mark and although todays trip is on the short side looks sure to go well and he’s the main pick.

 

ASHTOWN LAD 1 point each way 9/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

AL DANCER 1 point each way 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

16:40 Aintree

A decent sized field of sixteen staying novices line up for the 3M 149 yards Sefton Novices’ Hurdle. Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle winner at Cheltenham Stay Away Fay is likely to be thereabouts for Paul Nicholls as he stays so well and that victory last time was only his third ever run under rules so improvement can be expected. Grey Dawning is a horse I like who battled on really well when winning over 2M 5F at Warwick last time and this trip looks ideal for Dan Skelton’s six year old. Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero have had a terrific season including winning the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham with Iroko and he’s back today under the owners retained Irish jockey Mark Walsh although he does have to prove his stamina here stepping up half a mile. Official ratings have him just 4lb behind the top rated Stay Away Fay. Donald McCain’s Maximilian must also get a mention here as he beat Stay Away Fay a length at Doncaster in the River Don in January and can be competitive.

The one I like mind is the Irish challenger Absolute Notions who missed Cheltenham to wait for this and Gordon Elliott’s patience can pay off here with Davy Russell in the saddle. He appears to be crying out for this trip of three miles having been placed in grade 2 and 1 company notably last time out when runner up to Good Land at the Dublin Racing Festival in February with Sandor Clegane 2 3/4L behind that day. That one subsequently ran Stay Away Fay to 1 1/4L at Cheltenham suggesting, on a tentative form line agreed, that Absolute Notions is a better horse than Stay Away Fay. With the extra trip likely to suit he’s a strong fancy.

ABSOLUTE NOTIONS 2 points win @ 7/2 bet365

17:15 Aintree

A maximum field of 22 completes day 2 of the Aintree Grand National meeting in a 2m 103 yard conditional jockeys’ and amateur riders’ class 2 handicap hurdle. A wide open contest with Charlie Longsdon’s Parramount heading my short list. He massively impressed me when running away with a valuable handicap hurdle at Fakenham last month, scooting home to win by 13L from Swaffham Bulbeck who’s come out since and won a modest race himself by 14L. He’s been raised 10lb for that success but that is reduced by 7lb by the claim of Bradley Roberts who’s good value for the claim having won 12 of his 50 rides including 4 of his last 6. There are obviously many dangers mind including Joe Tizzard’s JPR One and Olly Murphy’s trio of Washington (3rd last year off off of 3lb higher mark), Ukantango and Go Dante who maybe the pick of the three with the booking of Jamie Codd looking eye catching. Novice Densworth trained by Ben Pauling and ridden by Luca Morgan could also be well handicapped in his first handicap following novice hurdle wins at Southwell and Newcastle and is another possible. Plenty of others have chances but Parramount is an improving seven year old who has conditions to suit and is ridden by an up and coming conditional jockey in Bradley Roberts.

PARRAMOUNT 1 1/2 points each way @ 10/1 1/5th 12345

all odds were available at time of writing

 

[richard-westwood]

405 ain't 

Haut en colours  9.0 12/1 

Ashtown lad   8.8 8.6 

Celebre dallen   8.3  50/1 

Il ridoto  8.0  

5pt wins top 3 😁 

 

Edited April 13, 2023 by richard-westwood

[MCLARKE]

The second day of the Aintree festival sees the running of the Topham Chase, run over the Grand National fences. It is run over 2 miles, 5 furlongs and 19 yards. It is open to horses aged 5 years or older and the off time is 16.05.

30 go to post and some bookmakers are offering each-way terms of 6 places which make this a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

89 horses have taken place in this race after a break of more than 33 days and all have lost.

Despite the large field sizes over half the winners have been in the first 3 of the forecast betting. There have been 5 winners from 32 runners with a profit of 30 points. From the remainder there have been 3 wins from 195 runs with a loss of 120 points.

Irish bred horses do not have a good record with 2 wins from 137 runs and a level stakes loss of 106 points at SP.

 

Just 2 horses fit these criteria.

 

HAUT EN COULEURS 12/1

FINAL ORDERS 10/1

 

I suggest backing these each with bookmakers paying 6 places.

 

Haut En Couleurs is trained by Willie Mullins, who won this in 2019 and 2020 and ridden by Paul Townend, who was the winning jockey in 2019.

 

[Sporting Sam]

Japanese experiment

7.40 funabashi 

AGEIS CAFE 

Each way

11/1

**********************************************0803.

Nothing quite as heady as yesterday's 200/1 runner up but a nice  runner up again @ sp 7/1.

sonoda 8.40

SPLENDIDE

each way

in shocking form of late, but ran up a four timer here at year starting on 7th April.

signs of a return to form two runs ago when 150/1 runner up at Himeji. Won't be anything like that price today but may be double figure price. Still low low stakes advised if playing.

*********************************************

SPLENDIDE 5th. at 18/1

final japanese selection today

09:15

Funabashi

AGE SHOOTER 

win

@ 7/2

shown good form previously.

**********************************************

I have had a result in virtually every single japanese race I've covered. Today has been no exception. With a winner in the third race and a second place in the first race.

I find it a fascinating range with the exceptional prices and will give it a closer look in the future. The draw is advantageous and works easier than anywhere else as it relates to the horse numbers which means you do not have to to and fro checking over the weights. There is one other stunning angle which I'll keep well under my hat. But feel free to check back on my previous japanese experiment posts. Just stunning.

Edited April 14, 2023 by sporting sam

[kensland]

Patent. 

2.35 Leic. Mexicali Rose     10/3

3.45 Leic. Tondeuse            10/1

4,40. Ain't. Blenkinshop        22/1

stk 25p ew   3.50..          rtn 402.70.

Good luck all. 

 

[Tedthewolf]

Call Of The Wild @ 16/1

Aintree 17:15 - Winner

5 - 1/ 5

 

Returns £0.00

.

Phoenix Way @ 25/1

Aintree 16:05 - Winner

6 - 1/ 5

 

Returns £0.00

Martello Sky @ 16/1

Aintree 14:20 - Winner

6- 1/5

 

All bog  !pt e/w on each & .25pts  e/w doubles & trebs-- 8 pts 

 

1pt e/w 2.20 Aintree NELL SON  18/1 betfair bog 6p --2pts

 

P/L +8.28pts

[LeMale]

1 hour ago, sporting sam said:

Japanese experiment

7.40 funabashi 

AGEIS CAFE 

Each way

11/1

**********************************************0803.

Nothing quite as heady as yesterday's 200/1 runner up but a nice  runner up again @ sp 7/1.

sonoda 8.40

SPLENDIDE

each way

in shocking form of late, but ran up a four timer here at year starting on 7th April.

signs of a return to form two runs ago when 150/1 runner up at Himeji. Won't be anything like that price today but may be double figure price. Still low low stakes advised if playing.

Firstly, some great tipping. But Sam....how did you miss Cathedral Rock @ 300-1 in the 07:30 at Sonoda!!! 🤣

[Sporting Sam]

Yes le Mal,  it ran ten minutes before the second placed selection. 🤣.

I looked at that one afterwards and don't forget a very similar profile to yesterday's 200/1 runner up. So who knows what price the next one will be? The prices don't appear until just before the off (8 mins). Even the favourites on tissue can go off at 11/4 while the selections can reach three figures even though I'm selecting on form in the book and one 'other' factor.

Often the fancied favourites are like 1/12 which hugely inflates the book then you just need form and ability to make those odds compilers look like drunken Santa's.

I'm liking this a lot.

Edited April 14, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

433867835126

Funabashi 11 am

Nishino Bryant

Each way.

Final japanese experiment today.

Four selections today.

[Deauville]

Amazing Sam

Unless I’m mistaken he gave away ten lengths at the start as he seemed reluctant to race 

[Nigwilliam]

35 minutes ago, sporting sam said:

433867835126

Funabashi 11 am

Nishino Bryant

Each way.

Final japanese experiment today.

Four selections today.

Nice one!,  Cheers 👍

[The Equaliser]

2.20 Aint Martello Sky 1 pt ew at 12/1 7p

[The Equaliser]

32 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

2.20 Aint Martello Sky 1 pt ew at 12/1 7p

Crap run, the pundits were cracking on about Camprond that also ran a crap race.  Weel done to @The Brigadierfor the winner

2.55 No Looking Back 1 pt win at 8/1 and Hullnback 1 pt win at 9.6 (couldn't back Inthepocket with Henry de Bromhead RTF of 28))

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Crap run, the pundits were cracking on about Camprond that also ran a crap race.  Weel done to @The Brigadierfor the winner

2.55 No Looking Back 1 pt win at 8/1 and Hullnback 1 pt win at 9.6 (couldn't back Inthepocket with Henry de Bromhead RTF of 28))

So much for RTF numbers, well done to Henry de Bromhead and Rachel Blackmore

3.30 Aint Hitman 1.50 win at 9.2 and  Pic Dhory 1 pt win at 4.6

4.05 Aint Haut En Couleurs 1 pt win at 11, and Burrow Saint 9/1, Ashtown Lad 15/2 + Ali Dancer 17/2 0.70 wins on all three

4.40 Aint Maximillian 1.50 win at 7/1 and absolute notions 0.50 win at 7/2

5.15 Aint Parramount 1 pt win at 7.2 and Go Dante 1 pt win at 15/2

5.10 Dun Pulse Of Shanghai 1 pt win at 7.8

6.10 Dun Dark Street 1 pt ew at 17/2

Total stakes = 19.60 incl 3pts on L15

======================================================

Too many win bets were placed today.  Just one winner and that was primarily a cover bet.  This returned 4.56 points so a loss of 15.04 points. My MTD is -58.92 and YTD is -108.74.

Not sure how much time I will have later but I will cut back drastically on the win bets and may only have one or two at most.  I can still have fun with the multiple L15's.  Even if I do 4 of them for 0.10 the max I can lose is 6 points. 🙂

Edited April 14, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[Sporting Sam]

Dundalk 6.10

Emric

Complete fantasy

Reverse forecast

 

Emric

Win

Complete fantasy

Each way 

[Sporting Sam]

Ballinrobe 6.50

PORTLAND ROW 

Each way

Interesting from this lightly raced JP MacManus owned runner.

pulled up when going well last run. jockey said he thought horse had broken down but found to be sound afterwards. Was travelling three miles for first time.

Headgear applied now and drops a few yards now off lower mark clearly gets this trip and big run expected now. same rider here.

Big price, but only a tentative choice as he may be being aimed at another race but interesting nonetheless.

[fd1972uk]

Went the same way with the first two with brigadier which done well for betfair double, and his 3rd race choice,  did have a couple on that race, tried to get 4/1 on 888, bit wasn't moving.

Follow up freebies on betfair was a disaster, did have fakir, wouldn't have mattered as 405 race was complete disaster. I did do a saver bet on pic dorhy as part of a multi bet with Man City,  Celtic and Rangers using a freebie, so maybe something back.

Thankfully went nowhere near last couple of races as no chance was picking any of the winners.