Tennis Tips - March 6 - March 12

[CzechPunter]

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[CzechPunter]

Indian Wells qualifiers start today, and I'm going with this one!

Magdalena Frech to beat Robin Montgomery at 1.83 with Pinnacle (not that many bookies have IW up yet)

I saw Frech against Collins last week, and she had every chance of causing an upset there, really, so I'm not quite sure why she's at this price against Montgomery, who's yet to do anything on the big stage. I rate French a level above, honestly, so this price looks really good to me, I wouldn't have her above 1.57.

[CzechPunter]

Magdalena Frech to beat Ashlyn Krueger at 1.75 with BetVictor

Well, she didn't let me down in the first round, so hopefully she'll deliver in the second round as well. Krueger is only a bit better than Montgomery imo, and I'd against not have Frech above the 1.65 or so mark here.

[CzechPunter]

Frech was just awful today.

Anna Kalinskaya to beat Alicia Parks at 1.53 with William Hill

I'm not sure what it is with Parks, but her record indoors is almost flawless, and she then simply can't play well outdoors for some reason. She went from winning against Garcia in Lyon to losing against Bjorklund and Peterson, so I think there's every chance we'll see another defeat for her here.

[four-leaf]

I don't want to gamble on Parks losing again, it's not my most favourite bet outthere for the first round.

But I'd like to have a shout on one of my recent favourites in Mayar Sherif at 3.81 with Pinnaclesports

Mayar Sherif to beat Linda Fruhvirtova at 3.81 with Pinnaclesports

Mayar has played pretty well recently so I don't understand what makes her the underdog here. She's coming from a minor success in Monterrey and Linda hasn't done much of note since winning her first title. Linda wasn't even impressive in Melbourne even though she got as far as round 4 because none of her opponents where good enough or in form. I really like Sherif, she's lost to Garcia and Giorgi recently i Mexico but she didn't play that bad in any of those two defeats acctually so I really don't get what makes her the big underdog here.

[CzechPunter]

Jasmine Paolini to beat Tatiana Maria at 1.70 with Unibet

I saw Paolini play rather well in her previous tournaments, while Maria's only good performance came against Cocciaretto. Paolini should be able to just outlast her here, honestly which is why I like the odds for her win.

[Grass Cash]

@CzechPunterand tennis punters. What kind of chances are you giving Krajinovic today?

He has results at this tournament, and is coming in fresher than Mcdonald. I think the talent level is pretty similar, and no one here would doubt that it's going to be a close match. For me I just felt that Krajinovic could outserve him for whatever reason. He's been at Indian wells since atleast 5 days ago training and preparing for the tournament.  

I thought Filip looked in form vs Rublev in his last match, and I can't speak much on Mcdonald's form because I"m out of the tennis loop, and not paying attention. 

[four-leaf]

2 hours ago, money44 said:

@CzechPunterand tennis punters. What kind of chances are you giving Krajinovic today?

He has results at this tournament, and is coming in fresher than Mcdonald. I think the talent level is pretty similar, and no one here would doubt that it's going to be a close match. For me I just felt that Krajinovic could outserve him for whatever reason. He's been at Indian wells since atleast 5 days ago training and preparing for the tournament.  

I thought Filip looked in form vs Rublev in his last match, and I can't speak much on Mcdonald's form because I"m out of the tennis loop, and not paying attention. 

McDonald is pretty good, especially in the US. I dare to say we'll see 3 sets.

[Grass Cash]

Jan Lenard Struff/Filip Krajinovic @+369 with William Hill

Being that I don't rate Quentin Halys, and German blacklisted player is already through the qualifying here.. I'll increase the payout on Krajinovic. I do not believe that if Krajinovic wins, struff will lose.. This is psych ward logic, but I am enslaved by this. I've already wrote about Krajinovic chances, and I guess he will probably lose, but if i'm deciding to back him then I'd rather have much better odds such as this which I actually think is a fair line to be gambling with.  I do think Wells can favor taller atp players and hard hitters. This is my reasoning for liking Struff's chances here. GL

[sterziyskii]

I went with Macdonald here.

What do you guys think about JJ Wolf and Thiem? Wolf seems to be the more in form player rn, got to the 1/8 on AO. I honestly want to stop betting on Thiem but I think he should bounce back soon and that's a great chance on an open hard court.

[CzechPunter]

Thiem has been such a disappointment since that long injury break, I can't bring myself to trust him until he gets a really good streak at some point.

[four-leaf]

One I like who I think does her job pretty well is Nuria Parrizas-Diaz. She's playing live now and I think she can beat Cocciaretto.

[CzechPunter]

Anhelina Kalinina to beat Linda Fruhvirtova at 1.73 with William Hill

Not a good performance from Linda yesterday, and Kalinina is a player that should be able to beat her if that happens again. Much better suited to the conditions than Sheriff was, and can be a beast on hard courts.

[sterziyskii]

For tomorrow I will combine these 3 matches. Tiafoe at 1.45, Dimitrov at 1.33 and Nishioka at 1.50 - making around 3.

Also I think that Daniel will take a set from Berretini at 1.9 why not to even beat him at 3.30.

[CzechPunter]

Good win for Kalinina there.

Carlos Alcaraz (-3.5) to beat Thanasi Kokkinakis at 1.73 with Unibet

Considering that he decided to start here, I assume that Alcaraz is relatively healthy, and there's a gulf of class between the two already. The conditions in IW are by no means quick enough to help Kokkinakis that much, so I expect the Spaniard to assert his dominance.

[CzechPunter]

Veronika Kudermetova to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.76 with Unibet

I'm trying, but I just can't bring myself to trust Pliskova these days. She can have a good performance here and there, but there are so many little things that can throw her off, and, when she's bad, she tends to be really bad. Kudermetova is an elite player that's more stable than Pliskova, and I like her at these odds.

[Grass Cash]

@CzechPunter@four-leaf - Hi, I have a very strong lean on Emil Ruusuvuori.. Can you tell me if this is an impossible request. I like the odds for it... Any opinions?

[Grass Cash]

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Petra K. @odds -110 with William Hill

Guys- I don't wanna be rude, but there is just no way in heck I would ever consider betting Kvitova to win this match vs Ostapenko.. I think she will make far too many errors like normal, and Ostapenko will be more consistent, and slamming the ball over and over to create even more errors than usual. 

 

[CzechPunter]

Not an impossible request, I just haven't seen Ruus in a very long time, so not sure where he's at.

[Grass Cash]

15 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Veronika Kudermetova to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.76 with Unibet

I'm trying, but I just can't bring myself to trust Pliskova these days. She can have a good performance here and there, but there are so many little things that can throw her off, and, when she's bad, she tends to be really bad. Kudermetova is an elite player that's more stable than Pliskova, and I like her at these odds.

I would have to go Pliskova in this. I don't think Kudermetova is in top form right now, and she's making alot of unusual errors in her last match. I didn't notice any problems with Pliskova. I agree that Kudermetova may be the better player atleast moving forwards and recent history.. This is a very tough spot for tho imo, and I think you would need atleast 2.0 or better to consider Veronika. 

[Grass Cash]

I've changed my mind about Ostapenko bet, and I don't believe it's worth the risk.. I've seen some of Kvitova, and it's just not something I want to be involved with on either side. I"m going to hedge out of this angle. 

Edited March 12, 2023 by money44