DAILY LUCKY 15

[harry_rag]

2 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

You are almost asking the bookmakers to act as bookmakers and take a gamble. Don't think they'd go for it to be honest.

No, but I do like the idea, instead of just being limited, of being offered the option to pay a fee of £x to keep the account on the current terms for a minimum period of time! 

4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I don't see how the bookies could get you for asking others to put bets on for you, how would they prove it ?

It's pathetic that we're pushed to even consider it though.

 

5 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Most of my betting is now on the exchanges and I expect ultimately all my betting will end up there.

Don't forget the great untapped reservoir of spread betting. 

[Zilzalian]

11 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Are you suggesting we keep quiet about our successful systems / selections ?

yep

[MCLARKE]

1 minute ago, Zilzalian said:

yep

It's not going to be much of a forum !

[BBBC]

I think the real issue is that the online bookmakers don’t operate as a traditional bookmaker should.

The result of a race should be immaterial - their profit should be locked in by the over round and balancing their book. I’m not sure that actually takes place anymore - if 1 cuts a price the others all follow. If you look first thing in the morning this can be driven by changes in the exchange even though the total on the market at that point can even be 3 figures and definitely less than 10k which is nowt in the grand scheme.

Every single customer is profiled and if you are profitable they will limit you or close your account. On top of that you have obvious data sharing going on possibly between companies not even in the same group.

But they will also be profiling bet types as well. So whether it is the comments on this site or simply data crunching determining they can’t make money offering the bonuses - the result is the same.  If they think the “customer” has an edge they will shut it down and simply add offerings that they can control like the fruit machines, virtual racing, shots on target etc …

 

[harry_rag]

22 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Are you suggesting we keep quiet about our successful systems / selections ?

I'm not so sure about the notion of the bookies monitoring sites like this that closely (I'd want a lot of money to wade through all our theory waffle)! 

If you win too much you run the risk of being limited anyway. The risk in terms of posting is where several people are all placing the same bets and they can pick up that from just monitoring their own data. If it looks like a lot of people are all following one other (and doing well) they can cut the prices as soon as that person bets. (I see that a lot on Twitter with guys who can find ricks in the stats markets, tackles, passes etc, prices slashed before anyone else can get on.) 

Generally speaking you won't get rich following my fixed odds picks but there could be a risk in anyone following my bet builders with 365. If I'm only getting a quid on and you were backing the same bets they might assume you're "topping up" for me and limit your account accordingly, win or lose.

There's no harm in highlighting fancied horses in a race or saying how you think a footy game will go but I tend to be wary of flagging niche bets or those at standout prices where there's only one firm worth betting with. (I'll be talking myself into pulling my anytime goalscorer system at this rate!)

Edited June 29, 2023 by harry_rag

[LEE-GRAYS]

Might as well close punters lounge down if we are scared of bookmakers reading how bets and systems we put up and open up WhatsApp and telegram accounts 

[Villa Chris]

They definitely monitor the Fat Jockey Forum, but that’s mainly based around ante post betting for the Cheltenham festival.  This forum is for your day to day betting. I guess if someone has stumbled upon a way of making good profit from horses then why should they give away their hard work and years of trying to find a way of winning.  I dare say there’s people on here who could start charging people and set up their own tipster page. 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Might as well close punters lounge down if we are scared of bookmakers reading how bets and systems we put up and open up WhatsApp and telegram accounts 

They will join them.

[harry_rag]

15 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

They will join them.

I find myself put in mind of that old advert, “watch out there’s a Humphrey about”. I’m also put in mind of that whenever I see the road sign for “Gerald Kaufman Close” though so it could just be me!

To be fair, you can have a private group or channel on there and dictate who has access so you’d be safe unless one of us is a bookie’s mole in disguise. The trouble is most of us old gits would be excluded by such new fanged technology! 

[Torque]

25 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

They will join them.

It's also not hard to imagine bookies actually using this site either. After all, nobody knows who anybody else is do they. Taking that idea a stage further, they may use the site to spread to propagate ideas that suit them - for example, how accas are always better than singles.

[Zilzalian]

Information is power, any information. PL is what it is a forum but do you really believe that lets say for the sake of argument that if just 10 365 customers all copied @MCLARKE Cheltenham bet (totalled to about 14K) you would be naive in the extreme if you believe for one moment the bookies couldn't join the dots? They have all your details and all your IP addresses and they all have links on here (even the word bookie) just try to open a second account and see what happens. The bookies will accept loses to a degree even to a few grand off individuals now and again, what they wont tolerate is what they would consider a "gang" Have non of you heard about their pyramid system that they (all the bookies) participate in? all i am saying and have previously warned about is be careful if you don't want to lose your accounts for what its worth i think BET365 is the best and most tolerant of all the bookies on or off line. lastly put yourself in their shoes when would you get worried?

The bigger conversation should be - a concerted effort to get the government to declare it illegal for any bookies to close down accounts without seriously good reason especially ordinary small stakes Joe Punter accounts.

look at all the highlighted text in this one message.....

Edited June 29, 2023 by Zilzalian

[Torque]

44 minutes ago, Torque said:

It's also not hard to imagine bookies actually using this site either. After all, nobody knows who anybody else is do they. Taking that idea a stage further, they may use the site to spread to propagate ideas that suit them - for example, how accas are always better than singles.

Confused @harry_rag why's that.

[harry_rag]

31 minutes ago, Torque said:

It's also not hard to imagine bookies actually using this site either. After all, nobody knows who anybody else is do they. Taking that idea a stage further, they may use the site to spread to propagate ideas that suit them - for example, how accas are always better than singles.

It's all gone a bit Reservoir Dogs now! Genuinely confused by that post in as much as I'm not sure if you're suggesting you've seen a post along those lines (that accas are "always better than singles") or if you think that the active discussion that has taken place in terms of the merits of the occasional L15 is propaganda along those lines. (Which would suggest myself, @MCLARKE or @Zilzalian as the rat!)

Personally, I think if someone came on here as a "shill" for the bookies and started to actively try and direct traffic in a certain direction it would stand out like a sore thumb and their ideas would get taken apart with logic if they made spurious claims. They'd also probably be saying "stop all this sports betting nonsense and follow my surefire roulette system"!

They may well be watching us but I'm not sure they walk among us to any great extent. (Would be great if anyone who happens to work for a bookie said "hi".)

Personally I don't disagree with much of what has been said but I think most of us are fine with regard to most of our activity here. I'd say heed the cautions and get on with normal business without getting too hung up on it.

(Though I'm always slightly wary of anyone who joins, follows me but never posts or interacts!)

 

[harry_rag]

5 minutes ago, Torque said:

Confused @harry_rag why's that.

Give me time, you should have known any explanation would take me at least half an hour to type! 

[Torque]

1 minute ago, harry_rag said:

It's all gone a bit Reservoir Dogs now! Genuinely confused by that post in as much as I'm not sure if you're suggesting you've seen a post along those lines (that accas are "always better than singles") or if you think that the active discussion that has taken place in terms of the merits of the occasional L15 is propaganda along those lines. (Which would suggest myself, @MCLARKE or @Zilzalian as the rat!)

Personally, I think if someone came on here as a "shill" for the bookies and started to actively try and direct traffic in a certain direction it would stand out like a sore thumb and their ideas would get taken apart with logic if they made spurious claims. They'd also probably be saying "stop all this sports betting nonsense and follow my surefire roulette system"!

They may well be watching us but I'm not sure they walk among us to any great extent. (Would be great if anyone who happens to work for a bookie said "hi".)

Personally I don't disagree with much of what has been said but I think most of us are fine with regard to most of our activity here. I'd say heed the cautions and get on with normal business without getting too hung up on it.

(Though I'm always slightly wary of anyone who joins, follows me but never posts or interacts!)

 

You've overthought it way too much Harry. The things you've suggested weren't in my mind at all.

[Villa Chris]

Hi… My name is Michelle and I’m a chimney sweeper from Blackburn 

[Torque]

5 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Hi… My name is Michelle and I’m a chimney sweeper from Blackburn 

Just because you say it, it doesn't make it true 

[Villa Chris]

2 minutes ago, Torque said:

Just because you say it, it doesn't make it true 

Well, it’s half true on certain nights depending on the mood in the bedroom .

[Torque]

2 hours ago, Torque said:

It's also not hard to imagine bookies actually using this site either. After all, nobody knows who anybody else is do they. Taking that idea a stage further, they may use the site to spread to propagate ideas that suit them - for example, how accas are always better than singles.

If I've written a joke somewhere above @MCLARKE I must have missed it.

[Zilzalian]

👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀 👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀  👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀  👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀  👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀  👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀  👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀  👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀  👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀  👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀  👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀 

[MCLARKE]

I think some of us 

4 minutes ago, Torque said:

If I've written a joke somewhere above @MCLARKE I must have missed it.

My brain is starting to hurt ! 

Are you suggesting that I / we are encouring members to bet lucky 15s because this is better for the bookies ? Even though we have shown that they are excellent value for punters.

I think some are getting a bit paranoid.

I started betting in the 80s when there were no early prices / BOG / comparison sites and you had to pay 10% tax on any winnings.

Personally I think we have never had it so good.

You can make thousands by taking advantage of bookmakers offers. If they then shut you down who can blame them.

Having worked as a financial director for many years I fully understand why they would close down loss making accounts.

As a last resort you can then bet on the exchanges with a commission of 2%.

[Torque]

5 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I think some of us 

My brain is starting to hurt ! 

Are you suggesting that I / we are encouring members to bet lucky 15s because this is better for the bookies ? Even though we have shown that they are excellent value for punters.

I think some are getting a bit paranoid.

I started betting in the 80s when there were no early prices / BOG / comparison sites and you had to pay 10% tax on any winnings.

Personally I think we have never had it so good.

You can make thousands by taking advantage of bookmakers offers. If they then shut you down who can blame them.

Having worked as a financial director for many years I fully understand why they would close down loss making accounts.

As a last resort you can then bet on the exchanges with a commission of 2%.

As I said to @harry_rag you're overthinking my meaning and intent. I'm not suggesting anything untoward on this thread, merely highlighting the possibility. Also, as has been suggested here on numerous occasions and as you've just mentioned, L15's can work in favour of the punter and not the bookie.

I used the example of accas - and even then as I've said before there are situations where they can be worth taking - and I did that because accas are generally terrible value and generate a lot of profit for bookies. You wouldn't necessarily know that though, because every time a punter wins five figures from a 10p bet it's plastered all over bookie advertising - never mind that the bookie took six figures worth of bets from all the other losing accas, that never gets mentioned.

You seem to have read what I wrote as an attack on you and others on the thread and also L15's which was not what I was doing and not what I meant. 

[harry_rag]

18 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I started betting in the 80s when there were no early prices / BOG / comparison sites and you had to pay 10% tax on any winnings.

Now we’re into Monty Python 4 Yorkshiremen territory! Anyone for a paying tax on stakes v on winnings debate? I always paid it upfront.

[MCLARKE]

12 minutes ago, Torque said:

You seem to have read what I wrote as an attack on you and others on the thread and also L15's which was not what I was doing and not what I meant. 

No problem. I agree with you that bookies are not bookmakers anymore.

We should all just bet on the exchanges (which are generally much better value) and put the traditional bookies out of business.

[MCLARKE]

10 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Now we’re into Monty Python 4 Yorkshiremen territory! Anyone for a paying tax on stakes v on winnings debate? I always paid it upfront.

I think I tried to work it out in those days without the help of a spreadsheet !

I think if you expected to make a profit then you should pay tax on the stake

Also there was a tax benefit by betting doubles / trebles etc (I think)

All academic now anyway (although who knows if labour get elected)

[Zilzalian]

17 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I think I tried to work it out in those days without the help of a spreadsheet !

I think if you expected to make a profit then you should pay tax on the stake

Also there was a tax benefit by betting doubles / trebles etc (I think)

All academic now anyway (although who knows if labour get elected)

 👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀  👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀  👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀  👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀  🤣

[Zilzalian]

Anyone know what happened 5 times today from 36 UK races?

[LEE-GRAYS]

[LEE-GRAYS]

Watch out there’s bookies about 😂they won’t worry to much about mine expecting the 🐌 to win again you never know 😂😂

[MCLARKE]

12 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Anyone know what happened 5 times today from 36 UK races?

Go on, give us a clue