Racing Chat - Saturday 7th January

[The Brigadier]

The ITV cameras are bringing us eight races today with five from Sandown including the feature race the Tolworth Hurdle and a valuable veterans handicap chase which has a wide open look to it. Wincanton is also featured with three handicaps from the Somerset track. Here’s my thoughts and betting plans -

 

Sandown 1.15

Eight have declared for this 2M 4F class 3 handicap chase. The favourite here is the Venetia Williams trained Gemirande who made all and out battled the Skelton’s Our Jet when powering away on the run in to win by 7 1/2L at Southwell back in November. Our Jet has won since to frank the form and despite a hefty 10lb rise will be a tough nut to crack under Venetia’s stable jockey Charlie Deutsch. Henry Daly’s top weight Precious Eleanor maybe the one to chase him home with the Daly team in such fine form currently. Lydia Richards’ Certainly Red is dropping 6F in trip which may not be in his favour whilst Peejaybee fell last time out so has to prove he’s got over that accident.

 

GEMIRANDE 1 points win @ 15/8 bet365

 

Wincanton 1.30

The first of three races from Wincanton is a class 2 2m 4F handicap chase which has attracted only six runners. All six can be given a chance of sorts with Philip Hobbs’ Celebre D’Allen currently heading the market. He must have claims having won his first three starts for Hobbs having previously been trained in France a year ago (twice over hurdles) and may has found the stamina test of three miles too much on his re-appearance at Warwick in November. He’s eleven now and it’s his fellow veteran that takes my eye. Messire Des Obeaux is two from two at the Somerset track including the re-routed Dipper Novices’ Chase of 2021 and is only 2lb higher than when winning a handicap chase over course and distance prior to that prestigious win. He is a horse that has been plagued with injuries throughout his career but this Simon Munir and Isaac Souede owned eleven year old was given plenty of encouragement by his trainer Alan King in his weekly column in this week’s Weekender where he stated ‘he’s done a lot of work, schooled on Monday and seems to be in good form so I hope he’ll run well.’ That’s good enough for me and he’s the bet here.

 

MESSIRE DES OBEAUX 2 points win @ 9/2 bet365

 

Sandown 1.50

A class 2 handicap chase run over two miles is up next with Scottish raider Corrigeen Rock pushing for favouritism. The six year old is bidding to follow up a course and distance victory gained five weeks ago when he jumped particularly well and readily went away from his field to win by a cosy seven lengths. The third that day has won since to give the form some credence and he looks sure to be thereabouts even though he has to overcome a 9lb rise in the weights. He may have to play second fiddle today mind to the Sam Thomas trained Grey Diamond who was well supported on his seasonal re-appearance when third ( beaten 3 1/4L) at Cheltenham to Amarillo Sky and Fugitif who have both won well since. That pair are now 11lb and 12lb respectively higher than the Cheltenham run so Grey Diamond looks a bet here off of just a 2lb higher mark. Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride and I’m expecting a big run. Donald McCain’s Dreams Of Home’s latest win hasn’t worked out well and he’s easily over looked whilst Venetia William’s Frero Banbou was not disgraced in a decent Ascot handicap last time and should be thereabouts. A strong fancy here in Grey Diamond with his latest form already franked.

 

GREY DIAMOND 3 points win @ 11/4 William Hill

 

Wincanton 2.05

Only seven go to post for the class 3 handicap chase up next. Venetia William’s Desque De L’Isle looks the one they all have to beat following a brace of handicap chases victories at Ludlow under 3lb claimer Shane Quinlan this winter. He’s risen 9lb for those two success’s and may not have finished his winning spree yet. Another Crick won this very race last year off of a 3lb higher mark and also has to come into the equation for the Noel Williams stable after a couple of runs this season. Also in the mix is Newbury third Not Available who’s dropped to a winning mark and the lightly raced novice Intern De Sivola from the Jane Williams stable who trains locally. I’m going to take a flyer here with an outsider in Native Robin also trained locally by Jeremy Scott. He’s shown little in two starts this season dropping 7lb but loves this track winning four of his eight starts here including a trio of handicaps on the bounce here at this time last year. He’s now a pound lower than his last victory and if the track does rekindle his best form looks overpriced especially if able to play with a bookmaker paying three places in this seven runner contest (bet365, Betfred and William Hill).

 

NATIVE ROBIN 1 point each way 20/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Sandown 2.25

The feature race of the day is the Unibet Tolworth Hurdle run over the minimum trip and won last year by the freak that is Constitution Hill. I’m not sure we’re likely to see anything of his standard but we have a very good clash to savour. The standard is set by Paul Nicholls’ Tahmuras who looked good when winning a listed novice hurdle at Haydock last time and is highly rated at Ditcheat who have a decent bunch of novice’s there this season. He looks sure to be thereabouts. The Irish bring over Arctic Bresil who is very hard to assess having won a twenty two runner Cork maiden hurdle easily from a Willie Mullins hurdling debutant who had smart bumper form. The third and fourth from that race have been well beaten since so it’s impossible to know how good a race it was. The one I like is Gary Moore’s Authorised Speed who was a useful bumper horse last season culminating in a decent 5th in the Cheltenham Bumper. A very easy winner of two novice hurdles on soft ground so far he has been well talked up by his shrewd trainer and apparently the softer the better for him. I expect the winner to come from one of that trio though an honourable mention must be made for Evan Williams’ L’Astroboy who’s unbeaten in two starts at Ffos Las including when defeating Tahmuras in a bumper there last season. Considering he’s eight times the price of that one he may well be worth a small each way saver.

 

AUTHORISED SPEED 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill

L’ASTROBOY 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Sandown 3.00

The day’s most valuable race is not the Tolworth hurdle but this eighteen runner 3M veterans handicap chase. A final of the Veterans’ Chase Series for horses aged ten years and over. It may not be everyone’s cup of tea but one things for sure we always get a decent sized field for the final. Plenty can be given chances on their back form and my pair against the field are last year’s winner Prime Venture who can race today off of the same mark of 130 as last year when clearing away over the last to win by 9L. He’s prepped for this with two runs over hurdles under a 7lb conditional jockey without his usual cheek pieces which are back on today and with regular jockey Adam Wedge back in the saddle looks worth a each way bet with the firms paying enhanced place terms (William Hill and Skybet are six places). Charlie Longsdon trains my other fancy in his grey Snow Leopardess who ran a lot better than her finishing position entails when 8th in the Becher at Aintree last time. She had won that event last year and will prefer the likely softer conditions at Sandown here. She should run well. Top weight Ramses De Teillee has been raised 6lb for his win in a qualifier for this 6 weeks ago and also makes some appeal but for me has to Prime Venture who looks to have been laid out for this again.

 

PRIME VENTURE 2 points each way @ 13/2 bet365 1/5th 12345

SNOW LEOPARDESS 1/2 point each way @ 13/2 William Hill 1/5th 13456

 

Wincanton 3.15

Only five declared for this class 3 2m 5 1/2F handicap hurdle with one of them, Jubilee Express, also having a entry at Ludlow on Friday and was pulled out on Friday morning so that leaves just four. This looks a good spot for Kim Bailey’s handicap debutant Chianti Classico who looked a good prospect when defeating a well touted Nicky Henderson trained bumper winner at Market Rasen last time having previously taken the scalp of subsequent Winter Novices’ Hurdle winner Henri The Second. An initial handicap mark of 131 looks reasonable and with Sir Psycho and Longshanks coming here having flopped over fences it may not be very competitive. Currently around the 1/2 mark he should win this but is a no bet race due to the shortness of his price.

 

 

Sandown 3.35

The last race of the eight covered by terrestrial television has attracted eleven runners. A class 2 handicap hurdle which could quite likely be run in a real mud bath so the ability to handle very bad ground is a must. Paul Nicholls’ Iceo makes his handicap debut and looks interesting although I’m always a bit wary of his horses around this time of the year as he invariably goes off the boil a bit due to the flu jabs he gives all his string after Christmas. He’s been off for 315 days so I can dismiss him. Venetia William’s Djelo looks a main protagonist here but is actually 10lb higher than when getting beat by Jungle Jack (beaten since) at Haydock last time. That doesn’t mean he can’t win but I prefer the chances of Harry Fry’s Lightly Squeeze who bolted up at Kempton last time and despite being bumped up 6lb may still be well handicapped. He’s actually a pound lower than when leading at the last in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury back in February 2020 and as his six hurdle victories have come on either soft or heavy he should be thereabouts. Bryan Carver takes the reigns and should be competitive today.

 

LIGHTLY SQUEEZE 1 point win @ 4/1 Betfred

 

Pease note - all prices quoted accurate as of time of uploading (Friday 9.12)

[Tedthewolf]

1pt e/w 3.00 SD-  SIR IVAN 20/1 bog 5p-Lost

1pt  e.w 3.00 SD UP HELLY AA KING 16/1 bog 5p-Placed (+5pts)

RT  +30pts`

Edited January 7, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[MCLARKE]

This weekend’s big handicap is the Unibet Veterans Handicap Chase at Sandown. This is a fairly niche event being limited to horses aged 10 or over. It is fair to say that the horses are in the twilight of their careers and are unlikely to play a major part at the Cheltenham festival. It is a relatively new event, first run in 2016. It is run over 3 miles and 37 yards. 18 go to post and off time is 3.00.

Most bookmakers offer each-way terms of 5 or 6 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.

GO FOR THE LONG SHOTS

I have looked at the statistics for this race and these are my key conclusions.

1.       It is best to look at those horses at the bottom of the market. Those horses with forecast odds in the range 16/1 to 20/1 have a record of 5 wins from 26 runs.

2.       It is helpful to have had a recent run. Only 1 horse (from 55 attempts) has won this after a lay-off of more than 32 days. The fitter horses have a record of 6 wins from 49 runs.

3.       The ideal weight range is 10st 1lbs to 10st 10lbs. This weight range has produced 4 wins from 32 efforts.

4.       It is best to stick with experienced jockeys. There have been 15 horses ridden by 5lbs or 7lbs claimers and none of these have won.

Only 1 horse matches these criteria and that is SIR IVAN. The 13-year-old gelding is currently available at 20/1 with BET365 who pay 5 places.

It is worth noting that SIR IVAN has been placed in this race in both 2021 and 2022 at odds of 20/1 and 22/1. He carries 3lbs less than he did last year.

Further statistics that may prove relevant.

As already indicated, those at the head of the betting have a poor record with only 2 winners from 69 runners being in the top 9 in the betting. SIR IVAN is ranked 10.

Horses that finished 1^st or 2^nd last time have recorded 1 win from 35 attempts. SIR IVAN finished 3^rd last time.

Horses that haven’t won over the distance have a record of 1 from 24. SIR IVAN has won over the distance, albeit over 5 years ago.

[black rabbit]

Nemean Lion     2 25 San/     £25 ew   17/1   { 1/20th } of a pt

Ballyandy           3 00 San/     £ 25 ew  14/1  { 1/20th of a pt

Hardy Du Seuil  3 35 San/     1/20th of a pt win   9/1

Rebel Early        2 12 Cor/     £25 ew  18/1   { 1/20th of a pt }

Call Me Freddie  3 50 Win/  £ 25 ew  25/1  { 1/20th of a pt }

 

 

P/L  + 158.60 PTS

Edited January 7, 2023 by black rabbit

[jonjo]

In the 6.30 the horse that gave Charlie Johsnton his first outright winner on Wednesday, Asdaa, is out again and still looks well in on old form despite a 4lb penalty taking his mark to 71, having won off as high as 86 in the past he should go very well tomorrow night over the same course and distance. Best prices available at the moment are all around the evens mark.

 

As always lay off prices in runnng will be placed.

Good luck whatever you are on tomorrow. 

Edited January 11, 2023 by jonjo

[Tedthewolf]

6 minutes ago, jonjo said:

One from the notebook runs in the 2.20 Lingfield and is the unlucky Pistoletto, seemed to get his heels clipped when trying to get into contention in a similar Class 4 race last time out, the winner has been out again and won to give the form a fair look to it. Back up to 12 furlongs tomorrow a distance that he has won at before at Lingfield off a rating of 92 in April last year, dropped a lb tomorrow and gets in from a mark if just 81 and should really go well here. No liquidity on the exchanges so to speak, took some at 6.4 and went in at the books and have taken 13/2 , sure to go off shorter.

13/2 well gone about an hour ago  7/2 the price now.

 

 

[jonjo]

4 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

13/2 well gone about an hour ago  7/2 the price now.

 

 

Yes, the best price now is 4/1, but you may get better on the exchanges in due course or do expect me to post before I put my own bet on? A few minutes earlier and I could have had 15/2

Edited January 6, 2023 by jonjo

[richard-westwood]

300 sand 

Snow leopardess  8.4 9/1 

Chambord   8.1   27.0 

Chirico vallis  8.1 22.0 

Very very tricky race .....no degree of confidence but some very good value in top 3 so I'll try 5pt wins all 3 and 6 forecasts just in case lol ?  

[richard-westwood]

Ling 110 

Broxi   8.2  4/1 

free solo  7.8 

Free solo is short fav but broxi has a good chance of beating him today ....over twice the price of the fav he looks a value bet to take the fav on 

Broxi  5pt win  

[kensland]

Double. 

1.15.Sand. Precious Eleanor       9/1       3rd

1.30. Winc.  Celebrity D' Allen       5/2     3rd

singles & double. 

Good luck all 

 

Edited January 7, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Newcastle. 

2.33. Carrigillhy        10/1.       Unpl

Four times flat winner /  effective on soft ground, what's not to like.

Good luck all. 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Sandown. 

Single. 

2.25. Nevean Lion      11/1      3rd 

Good luck all. 

Edited January 7, 2023 by kensland

[jonjo]

22 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

This weekend’s big handicap is the Unibet Veterans Handicap Chase at Sandown. This is a fairly niche event being limited to horses aged 10 or over. It is fair to say that the horses are in the twilight of their careers and are unlikely to play a major part at the Cheltenham festival. It is a relatively new event, first run in 2016. It is run over 3 miles and 37 yards. 18 go to post and off time is 3.00.

Most bookmakers offer each-way terms of 5 or 6 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.

GO FOR THE LONG SHOTS

I have looked at the statistics for this race and these are my key conclusions.

1.       It is best to look at those horses at the bottom of the market. Those horses with forecast odds in the range 16/1 to 20/1 have a record of 5 wins from 26 runs.

2.       It is helpful to have had a recent run. Only 1 horse (from 55 attempts) has won this after a lay-off of more than 32 days. The fitter horses have a record of 6 wins from 49 runs.

3.       The ideal weight range is 10st 1lbs to 10st 10lbs. This weight range has produced 4 wins from 32 efforts.

4.       It is best to stick with experienced jockeys. There have been 15 horses ridden by 5lbs or 7lbs claimers and none of these have won.

Only 1 horse matches these criteria and that is SIR IVAN. The 13-year-old gelding is currently available at 20/1 with BET365 who pay 5 places.

It is worth noting that SIR IVAN has been placed in this race in both 2021 and 2022 at odds of 20/1 and 22/1. He carries 3lbs less than he did last year.

Further statistics that may prove relevant.

As already indicated, those at the head of the betting have a poor record with only 2 winners from 69 runners being in the top 9 in the betting. SIR IVAN is ranked 10.

Horses that finished 1^st or 2^nd last time have recorded 1 win from 35 attempts. SIR IVAN finished 3^rd last time.

Horses that haven’t won over the distance have a record of 1 from 24. SIR IVAN has won over the distance, albeit over 5 years ago.

God luck with Sir Ivan. I like the profiler myself, it justs shows how we can read situations differently, from my persepective I've got that every winner so far (and we only have 7 runnings of the race to go at, makes it even harder) has ran at a distance of 4m 1f or more at some stage of their career  which left five to go at, numbers 1, 2, 3,15,16, cant really find anything more definitive than that, mine is from a 'watching brief only' so hope that Sir Ivan romps in for you. 

[MCLARKE]

Odds on selection

Wincanton

3.15

Chianti Classico

8/15

[jonjo]

On the 2nd January Daryll Jacob won on two for Irish raiders from the Crawford yard, can he repeat the feat at Newcastle? Has O'toole in the 1.23 fairly well backed at the moment but nothing special 5.1 into 3.95 and also he has Artiste Dainay in the 2.33 steady around the 3.3 mark. His favourites have a record of 2 from 5 over the years at Newcastle but he is one of those trainers where if you backed his every favourite you would be in profit, with him showing a 44% strike rate with favourites when coming across the water.

 

? One winner, one loser.

Edited January 7, 2023 by jonjo

[The Equaliser]

LAY BET: 1.45 Ling Cresta De Vega 2.04 @ 2.48 = +2 v Liab of 3.02.  The horse has to overcome a layoff of 442 days and was gelded over a year ago. It doesn't look to have a glittering career thus far.   Fine Balance trained by George Boughey looks to be the form choice and Momaer and Pysanka trained by Mark Loughnane don't look out of it either.  Hats off to Ralph Beckett if he can pull it off

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Very good run by the favourite but Momaer leads all the way and wins.  Looks like Billy Loughnane's 7lb claim sealed the deal.  + 2 win makes my MTD -3.09

Edited January 7, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[MCLARKE]

D McCain Jnr runners

Sandown	1.50	Dreams Of Home
Newcastle	2.33	Guillaume
Newcastle	2.33	Lovin Jukebox

[jonjo]

1 hour ago, jonjo said:

On the 2nd January Daryll Jacob won on two for Irish raiders from the Crawford yard, can he repeat the feat at Newcastle? Has O'toole in the 1.23 fairly well backed at the moment but nothing special 5.1 into 3.95 and also he has Artiste Dainay in the 2.33 steady around the 3.3 mark. His favourites have a record of 2 from 5 over the years at Newcastle but he is one of those trainers where if you backed his every favourite you would be in profit, with him showing a 44% strike rate with favourites when coming across the water.

Money continued on O'toole from the early 5.1 in to a Bfsp of 2.78 and WON nicely. 

[Alley Cat Glover]

Not over enticed with the racing but 4 races at Sandown worth an e/w Lucky 15 for a bit of interest, but feel like I’m going up against the ‘chosen 4’ 

1.50 Dreams of Home

2.25 Arctic Bresil

3.00 Chirico Vallis

3.35 Dr TJ Eckleburg

[fd1972uk]

Was out at footy earlier so didn't post  didn't need to, lol, absolute howler of a day got another 3 races or so but I'll watch the footy and check later if they came in, which pretty sure they won't, lol.

Some absolute dreadfulmruns from so called favs.

[Tedthewolf]

2pt win DJELO 2/1 bog 2.35 SD-LOST

RT +33

Edited January 7, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[Sporting Sam]

3.57

Cork

Tilloughna 

Win 

Good second to Jessica Harrington runner last time.

Up against winning pointer fancy girl who is ridden by Patrick Mullins who gets the pick of the yards runners. This means he conceeds half a stone here and in heavy going may bring him back to the field.

Even though Mullins runners always start a stone clear on unofficial ratings in terms of the improvement they make after six months or so of conditioning and training once they are taken on.

 

Edited January 7, 2023 by sporting sam

[kensland]

Kempton. 

Double. 

7.00. Floating Spirit        6/1       1st 

7.30. Fivethousandtoone      4/1    3rd

singles & double. 

Edited January 7, 2023 by kensland

[black rabbit]

On 1/6/2023 at 3:39 PM, black rabbit said:

Nemean Lion     2 25 San/     £25 ew   17/1   { 1/20th } of a pt

Ballyandy           3 00 San/     £ 25 ew  14/1  { 1/20th of a pt

Hardy Du Seuil  3 35 San/     1/20th of a pt win   9/1

Rebel Early        2 12 Cor/     £25 ew  18/1   { 1/20th of a pt }

Call Me Freddie  3 50 Win/  £ 25 ew  25/1  { 1/20th of a pt }

 

 

P/L  + 158.60 PTS

Hardy Du Seul    wins /  Neamean Lion and  Rebel Early   placed/

[kensland]

Kempton. 

Lucky 15.

8.30. Jack's Profit      7/2.   3rd

8.00. Aussie Banker     7/2.   2nd

6.30. Asdaa                 10/11     2nd

6.00. Chloellie              9/1    2nd

Good luck all. 

Edited January 7, 2023 by kensland

[MCLARKE]

12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Odds on selection

Wincanton

3.15

Chianti Classico

8/15

Won at 4/6

15 from 23, LSP 0.17