Racing Chat Sunday - November 20th

[Zilzalian]

32 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

As always my analysis is looking for an angle that is profitable. If I can find logic to support my analysis then even better. 

There have been studies that show that the optimum age for a horse is 4.5 years, at this age they are physically mature and have high energy levels.

Also, the older horses that have been campaigning for several years are more familiar to the general betting public and therefore maybe they are overbet. By contrast there is a question mark about the younger horses and they may have limited form to study and maybe they are underbet.

You often have to go against logic and popular opinion which is very difficult. You would think that 5 year old are better at shorter distances than long but this is not the case. 

Breeding is an area that is often overlooked and which I use in a number of my systems. For longer distances UK bred horses have the best record with an AE of 1.03. For 5 year olds Irish bred are best with an AE of 1.03.

5 year olds bred in the UK running over longer distances have an AE of 1.17. However the sample size is becoming smaller, with about 130 runs per year.

There are so many statistics to juggle with it sometimes makes my brain hurt !

I take your points. On breeding you mention UK and irish Horses but what about French bred? and i suspect even more  importantly German bred, how do they compare on AE?

[Zilzalian]

On 11/19/2022 at 11:40 AM, richard-westwood said:

3.00 exe 

Didero vallus  8.4 16/1 

Bangers and cash   8.2 10/1 

I'll try 5pt ew both 

I did the rfc and was miffed but not half as miffed as you would have been if you had the 1/2 ?

[MCLARKE]

22 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I take your points. On breeding you mention UK and irish Horses but what about French bred? and i suspect even more  importantly German bred, how do they compare on AE?

French bred overall have a poor record with an AE of 0.99

They are better in chases (AE 1.02)

6 year olds are profitable (AE 1.03)

They do well in races with less than 7 runners (AE 1.04). Not sure if this is relevant or just a statistical quirk.

German bred have a very poor record with an AE of 0.95

Again chases are better (AE 1.02)

7 year olds are better (AE 1.07) although the sample size is small (56 runners per year)

 

 

[The Equaliser]

19 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Actually just saw dudero was settled at 28/1 ! .....so +80.00 

Hi Richard, 

Just a quick question.  I backed Dudero with Bet365 ew at 16/1.  They returned my bet at that price instead of 28/1.  Not sure if you had your bet with them or not.  However, the Bet365  website says that they only apply BOG to win and each way bets.  It goes on to say that they do not pay BOG on bets that have Enhanced each way terms.  They were paying out on 4 places so this is why I thought that I didn't get 28/1.  If you were with them on this and got paid out do you think I should query this?

[Zilzalian]

51 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Hi Richard, 

Just a quick question.  I backed Dudero with Bet365 ew at 16/1.  They returned my bet at that price instead of 28/1.  Not sure if you had your bet with them or not.  However, the Bet365  website says that they only apply BOG to win and each way bets.  It goes on to say that they do not pay BOG on bets that have Enhanced each way terms.  They were paying out on 4 places so this is why I thought that I didn't get 28/1.  If you were with them on this and got paid out do you think I should query this?

enhanced bets on 365 are not bog thats why i never bother with enhanced.

[The Equaliser]

49 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

enhanced bets on 365 are not bog thats why i never bother with enhanced.

Many thanks.  I think that when I went to place my bet the bet slip just showed the enhanced part as being the only option.  I might be wrong.  I think that Richard @richard-westwoodalways goes for the extra places so if he placed his bet with Bet365 I don't understand why he got settled at 28/1 and I only got 16/1. But many thanks for pointing this out and I won't waste my time with the Bet365 stupid virtual assistant that told me it was putting me through to an agent and just left me dangling

[kroni]

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

enhanced bets on 365 are not bog thats why i never bother with enhanced.

strange, im sure i've always received BOG on those enhanced races, there were 2 enhanced e-w races today 325 and 335, i've been payed BOG on both of them. not sure if there is some confusion with Each-Way Extra which you wont get BOG unless you pick the same terms as with the normal Racecard tab. 

there are times when a race has normal place terms early in the day but later on closer to the off changes to an enhanced place, im not sure if this is the same thing as above or what

[richard-westwood]

6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Hi Richard, 

Just a quick question.  I backed Dudero with Bet365 ew at 16/1.  They returned my bet at that price instead of 28/1.  Not sure if you had your bet with them or not.  However, the Bet365  website says that they only apply BOG to win and each way bets.  It goes on to say that they do not pay BOG on bets that have Enhanced each way terms.  They were paying out on 4 places so this is why I thought that I didn't get 28/1.  If you were with them on this and got paid out do you think I should query this?

I didn't back ènhanced this time .....sometimes I go for the extra place but if the top 3 are really strong and quite a bit ahead of the rest I just go 3 places and hope it drifts like in this case 

[Zilzalian]

4 hours ago, kroni said:

strange, im sure i've always received BOG on those enhanced races, there were 2 enhanced e-w races today 325 and 335, i've been payed BOG on both of them. not sure if there is some confusion with Each-Way Extra which you wont get BOG unless you pick the same terms as with the normal Racecard tab. 

there are times when a race has normal place terms early in the day but later on closer to the off changes to an enhanced place, im not sure if this is the same thing as above or what

think you might be correct i was actually thinking ew extra then  i typed "enhanced" its an age thing. ? @The Equaliser