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Racing Chat - Friday 16th September

Darran

By Darran
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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Darran

Darran

Posted
Posted

Some of you will be aware I have shares in a horse in Australia called Beneficio and she us back in action at Ballarat on Friday morning in Race 5 at 6.30am. She is actually up against an ex Godolphin horse who finished 2nd to Baaeed. I have looked at the 9 runners who line up in the Class 1 (for horses who have won 1 race) event.

Komachi - An ex-Godolphin horse who had 4 starts for Charlie Appleby in 2020 and 2021 and he won on his 2nd start at Newcastle in October 2020. That means we know he handles a synthetic track (as they call the AW in Australia) and he's bred too as well. He was then off until last June when he finished 2nd at Newmarket to a certain horse called Baaeed! Now he was beaten 7.5L so it wasn't like he got close to him which clearly isn't a shock, but as the analysis on the Racing Post says, he isn't always going to bump into one that smart! His last run was also at Newmarket but he was a well beaten 3rd of 4 and after that he was gelded. In November he was sold for £42k to his current owner and shipped to Australia. The win came over 1400m although he made his Australian debut on the turf course here over 1100m in May in a BM70. That day he was tapped for toe early having been slow away. In the straight he wasn't able to get a run and his jockey had to move him out to the outside to find a gap which didn't come until late on. After that he's flown home to be beaten 0.6L and you have to think with a clear run he wins. He's other two runs this year weren't quite as good and he was quite keen on both, especially last time at Bendigo where he got tired and was only 8th on a Heavy 8 track. He's not been seen for 77 days, but if he can run like he did in England and as he did in May then he is a big player here back on a synthetic track.
 
 
Ceejay - Ran on well at Pakenham last time over 1000m after jumping awkwardly. Stepping up in trip will suit, but the problem is that was only a BM58 and this is stronger.
 
Missed The Mark - Looks unders in the betting for me and I think that's based on the fact he hammered his rivals in a trail in July. For a start that was clearly a few weeks ago now, but the horse in 2nd is an exposed maiden so I don't think it says a huge amount. He took 5 runs to win although did it well back in February. He only beat in his first handicap start at Geelong next time, but he was forced out wide and over raced so he can be forgiven a bit for that, but he doesn't look as good as some of these.
 
Beneficio - On the face of it the 7th at Sandown last time was disappointing as she was well fancied to go very close. However the track was against her as you didn't want to be on the inside as everything came down the middle of the track. She also wasn't as fast away as she can be and although she helped make the running, I don't think that helped. She was found to have a hamstring injury after the race so if she picked that up at some point in the race then that wouldn't have helped either. The maiden win at Kyneton was impressive and then she was a superb 2nd in an open handicap at Caulfield and the winner has won a Listed race since and placed at Group level. That for me is the best Australian form going into the race. She has had a couple of jumpouts to work her way back up to fitness and did well last time. They were both on a synthetic track so that shouldn't be an issue and she comes here in good form.
 
Pentegra - Took a while to win his maiden and finally did it at Echuca back in March. Was 3rd in one of these on the turf track on his next start, but struggled in his next two starts. Had a spell and was 2nd 1st up, but that came in a 0-58 at Warracknabeal and this is stronger.
 
Teguila Spirit - All but one of her races has come at this venue although over 1000m or 1200m. Finished 2nd a couple of times in June and July before getting a deserved win in August. The problem is she went into handicap company on her next start and was only 5th in a BM58. This is stronger than that and she could be doing well to keep tabs on Beneficio in the early stages.
 
Red Stiletto - She's looking exposed compared to most of these and although has been placed 3 times she has been struggling to add to the one win and I'd be surprised if that turned into 2 here.
 
Royal Rebellion - Ex Queensland horse who made her debut in Victoria at Casterton last time in a 0-58 12 days ago when finishing 5th. Bit surprised if she was good enough.
 
Arachnattack - 1 win in 53 starts sums his ability up and going to struggle in this.
 
Verdict - Beneficio is the right favourite for me as the Caulfield 2nd is better than any of these have managed in Australia. Hopefully she is fast away from her low draw and is able to make all. The only slight query is the fitness in the final 50, but on ability it is hard to see most of these being capable of running her down. Komachi has to be the main danger. He showed good ability over here and clearly whilst finishing 2nd to Baaeed is a bit misleading as he was over 7L behind, it was still a strong effort in the context of this race. He was unlucky not to win 1st up in Australia and he can be forgiven a bit for his next two starts. Back onto a synthetic track is likely to help as well. He looks like being the one who will be chasing Beneficio down and I will be backing him as well as having a reverse forecast with the pair as well.
 
Beneficio @ 19/10 with Bet365
Komachi @ 9/2 with everyone
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Gary66

Gary66

Posted
Posted

Two horses of interest to me on Friday .black Friday at ayr 3-45 dropped down to an attractive mark and at course he likes  not quite sure he has the class to win it but at 40/1 6/7 places on offer its a more than decent punt

5-05 Newbury  lawn ranger 50/1 extra places on offer again a horse who is on the decline career low mark extra places again on offer il take a chance on him bouncing back at that price on a course and ground that suit ....best of luck gaz

 

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted

Ayr bronze cup 

Mattice   8.7  15/2 7 places 

Late arrival   8.5  20/1 7 places 

Tipperary tiger  8.1 

Monsieur kodi   8.0 

Thin blue line 7.8  

Wide open cavalry charge ...not sure mattice is really looking for a hard 6f race but he has the best form at 5f so takes his chance .....late arrival looks way overpriced around 25/1 ....or 20/1 7 places .....I'll try 10pt ew on both as its my only bet of day ......Good luck if you play ...its a doozy ?

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calva decoy

calva decoy

Posted
Posted (edited)

3.45 Ayr - DANZAN 16/1 eway bet365 ( 6 places b.o.g. ) sky same price 7 places no b.o.g.

1st ?

Was 3rd in this race last season off a 6Lb higher mark , has a high draw but looking through the last 10 renewals , there isn't a strong draw bias even with different goings .

Edited by calva decoy
results update
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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

3.45 Ayr - DANZAN 16/1 eway bet365 ( 6 places b.o.g. ) sky same price 7 places no b.o.g.

Was 3rd in this race last season off a 6Lb higher mark , has a high draw but looking through the last 10 renewals , there isn't a strong draw bias even with different goings .

Snap

Was just about to post somthing similar really fancy the Easterby runner on with Bet 365.

We agree at last Calva.

Where is it on your ratings Rich?

Good Luck all

Edited by Tedthewolf
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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Snap

Was just about to post somthing similar really fancy the Easterby runner on with Bet 365.

We agree at last Calva.

Where is it on your ratings Rich?

Good Luck all

Not in my top 6 ....but my ratings prioritise recent form so if a horse ran well last year and is coming back we'll weighted it might not score high .....but I bow to your knowledge in these matters so he mustvhave a chance ....Good luck ...its a great race and I enjoy getting stuck in 

Oh ...I just realised computer marked him down on age ....as, a 7 yo that loses points ?

Edited by richard-westwood
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black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted (edited)

Summer Sands     3 45 Ayr/       1/20 pt win    25/1

Fast and Loose     3 45 Ayr/       1/20 pt  win    85/1

Pink Crystal        3 10 Ayr/        1/10 pt win   11/1

Wandering Rocks    4 35 Nby/   1/10 pt win   10/1     

 

 

 

P/L   +156.80  pts

Edited by black rabbit
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The Scientist

The Scientist

Posted
Posted

For amusement and intrigue.

In the 5.45 Kempton  I noted BAILEYS SHOWTIME as a magnificent looking horse but 100% clueless at the way to gallop.

His last place finishes actually do the horse credit for trying.

Well I have done the race form and the horse is 11th of 14th tonight....but

Big BUT

If that ELIZA DOOLITTLE moment comes to the colt and the knack of moving his legs all 'clicks into place' this 90 looking horse running at 35 could blow them all away at 50-1.

Dream on!

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted (edited)

A rare instance of a collection of non-handicap races to choose from today.  I am working on a multiple and will come back with it soon.

1.25 Ayr Misty Blues 1 pt win at 6.2, market mover for Easterby fans.  Pureness 0.30 ew at 12/1 @kenslandand Ibizza Love 0.20 ew at 17/2 @Gower Ranger = 2 pts staked

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Misty Blues beaten a neck which was a pity

2.18 Nb Peony 6/4

2.35 Ayr Bolt Action 13/8

2.53 Nb The Parent 11/4

3.10 Ayr Gale Force Maya 13/8

6 x 0.25 dble, 4 x 0.25 trebles and 1 x 0.25 fourfold = 2.75 poss return 66.79

Saver bets

2.18 Nb Wyoming 1 pt win at 3.9

2.53 Nb Strawberry Belle 1 pt win at 4.4

Total stakes so far = 6.75

Hopefully back later with the handicap races selections

 

3.10 Ayr Gale Fprce Maya 3.5 pts win at 2.88

RESULTS UPDATE

Luckily Gale Force Maya got me out of trouble, ended up only losing 0.30 in the end.  Very poor showings by my other non-handicap contenders.  My MTD is now +50.45 with my YTD  at -246.12

Loads of class racing again tomorrow with quite a few non-handicaps in the offing.  Will have another crack at the multiples in those again.  Poss a small multiple in the handicaps too

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
update
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black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Darran said:

Hope a few of you backed Beneficio this morning. She was really impressive and clocked a quick time as well. Jockey said she had plenty left in the tank as well. All being well she will be off to Moonee Valley in a couple of weeks.

congrat's Darran  yep had  1/10 pt  on well done to all involved ?

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Ayr bronze cup 

Mattice   8.7  15/2 7 places 

Late arrival   8.5  20/1 7 places 

Tipperary tiger  8.1 

Monsieur kodi   8.0 

Thin blue line 7.8  

Wide open cavalry charge ...not sure mattice is really looking for a hard 6f race but he has the best form at 5f so takes his chance .....late arrival looks way overpriced around 25/1 ....or 20/1 7 places .....I'll try 10pt ew on both as its my only bet of day ......Good luck if you play ...its a doozy ?

Mattice 3rd ...thin blue 4th .....well done the danzan players great call .....thoughtbi had it on far side ?

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calva decoy

calva decoy

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, calva decoy said:

3.45 Ayr - DANZAN 16/1 eway bet365 ( 6 places b.o.g. ) sky same price 7 places no b.o.g.

1st ?

Was 3rd in this race last season off a 6Lb higher mark , has a high draw but looking through the last 10 renewals , there isn't a strong draw bias even with different goings .

nice start to the weekend & 8/1 sp so double bubble with early price ?

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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, calva decoy said:

3.45 Ayr - DANZAN 16/1 eway bet365 ( 6 places b.o.g. ) sky same price 7 places no b.o.g.

Was 3rd in this race last season off a 6Lb higher mark , has a high draw but looking through the last 10 renewals , there isn't a strong draw bias even with different goings .

 

17 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Snap

Was just about to post somthing similar really fancy the Easterby runner on with Bet 365.

We agree at last Calva.

Where is it on your ratings Rich?

Good Luck all

?

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