alexcaruso808 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 (edited) Chelmsford City 2.45 - Emperor Spirit @ 9/2 Dubai Station @ 11/2 Pontefract 3.30 - Corinthia Knight - 9/4 4.05 - Dubai Icon @ 8/1 Brunch @ 7/1 Non-runner. -- Not much in the way of flat racing, but good luck whatever you decide to bet on. Edited July 24, 2022 by alexcaruso808 Non-runner & replacement bet added black rabbit, MCLARKE, The Equaliser and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kensland Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 (edited) Uttoxeter. Double. 1.20. Fast Forward. 9/4.... P. U 4.15. Shetland Bus. .... 9/2 singles & double. Good luck all. Edited July 24, 2022 by kensland black rabbit, The Equaliser and alexcaruso808 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 (edited) Analysis of yesterdays King George in relation to Group think. (and yes hindsight is a marvalous thing but so is foresight). Fav Westover 3yo up against solid performers its figures didn't match so it was fav on perceived "potential" 2nd fav Mishriff has earned most of its money globe trotting against reasonable opposition its best race being on dirt. 3nd fav Emily Upjohn (new trip) 3yo same as Westover, perceived "potential" did anyone rate that a good oaks? looked moderate to me. Broom always promised/hyped but never produced much. Torquator Tasso wont the premier 12f race in Europe (the arc) beaten by a strong horse previously namely Alpinista and went off at an unbelievable 16/1 in this. Pyledriver always underestimated but a solid gr1 winner (not a sexy stable?) but always delivered in group races including 3rd btn 1 1/4in the St Leger despite its zigzagging so that was never going to stop at 12f and was available at 33/1 for and hour on bet365 and others. Conclusion Go with what you can see yourself (all the form is available) and not what you are told, solid form is far more reliable than "potential" Prices are rarely representative of a horses chance just the opinion of group think or the bookmakers liabilities. The horse never knows what price it is. This wasnt a bad Group1 it actually worked out to form at the trip and ground. Going forward if the Arc comes up soft i predict Alpinista and Torquator Tasso and Pyledriver will be there or thereabouts in that order unless something exceptional pops up between now and then. The 3yo's look substandard to me. Edited July 23, 2022 by Zilzalian Trotter, MCLARKE, black rabbit and 4 others 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted July 23, 2022 Author Share Posted July 23, 2022 Excellent write-up and good insight @Zilzalian. ? Zilzalian, black rabbit and kensland 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 (edited) 330 pont Origin trail 7.8 5/2 Equiano springs 7.6 9/1 Just a fun bet today ....very trappy race and there are 1 or 2 course specialists but these 2 are .4 over the rest so can't go ew at 5/2 but I'll try 4pt win origin ...and 1pt ew equiano ....also skybet are offering 33/1 on origin winning by 1 length or more and equiano finishing 2nd ...I'll try 1pt on that !!!... quiet day so more a fun bet for a bit of interest ? Edited July 24, 2022 by richard-westwood The Equaliser, yossa6133, black rabbit and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 21 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: 330 pont Origin trail 7.8 5/2 Equiano springs 7.6 9/1 Just a fun bet today ....very trappy race and there are 1 or 2 course specialists but these 2 are .4 over the rest so can't go ew at 5/2 but I'll try 4pt win origin ...and 1pt ew equiano ....also skybet are offering 33/1 on origin winning by 1 length or more and equiano finishing 2nd ...I'll try 1pt on that !!!... quiet day so more a fun bet for a bit of interest ? Archie Watson appears to have a strong hand with Corinthian Knight. He has a 50 % strike rate at the track with his 4 year + horses. The market suggests that Origin Trail is very closely matched. Tom Tate is 2/17 = 12 % with his 4 yr + horses at the track. Funny enough Equiano Springs is Co of 3 2nd Timeform top-rated at 98 whilst Oregin Trail is on 95. This being so I'll have half a point win on Equiano Springs at 10/1 with Bet365. I wonder what price one would get on Equiano winning by a length from Origin Trail ? alexcaruso808, black rabbit and azzybear 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 1 hour ago, The Equaliser said: Archie Watson appears to have a strong hand with Corinthian Knight. He has a 50 % strike rate at the track with his 4 year + horses. The market suggests that Origin Trail is very closely matched. Tom Tate is 2/17 = 12 % with his 4 yr + horses at the track. Funny enough Equiano Springs is Co of 3 2nd Timeform top-rated at 98 whilst Oregin Trail is on 95. This being so I'll have half a point win on Equiano Springs at 10/1 with Bet365. I wonder what price one would get on Equiano winning by a length from Origin Trail ? No price lol...but 66/1 on origin by 2 lengths .. eek ??? black rabbit and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: No price lol...but 66/1 on origin by 2 lengths .. eek ??? Does it have to be exactly 1 length or 2 lengths? Seems like a bad bet to me. If it was a length or more or 2 lengths or more it may be tempting I suppose. I must admit that it sometimes amazes me that even when a horse is long odds on they very often don't seem to manage to beat their nearest rival by at least a length on the flat black rabbit and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 Tiger Crusade 2 45 Chl 1/5 pt ew 22/1 alexcaruso808 and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 13 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: Does it have to be exactly 1 length or 2 lengths? Seems like a bad bet to me. If it was a length or more or 2 lengths or more it may be tempting I suppose. I must admit that it sometimes amazes me that even when a horse is long odds on they very often don't seem to manage to beat their nearest rival by at least a length on the flat It's or more alexcaruso808 and The Equaliser 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 Gulliver collonges 1.55 The Equaliser, alexcaruso808 and Budgie 65 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aj racer Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 2.45 misty gray soild horse 2nd in class 1 now in class 2 handicap against empoior spirit is its only true competition misty gray marked at 4/1 on 365 PercyP, Bronxie, MCLARKE and 3 others 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 (edited) 1.45 Pont Mrs Trump 5/2 (My PL Nap) 2.45 Chlm Dubai station 7/2 2.55 Pont Highwaygrey 7/2 3.05 Uttx Peaches And Cream 5/1 6 x 0.5 win dbles, 4 x 0.5 win trebles and 1 0.5 win 4 fold = 5.50 stakes with poss return of 466.66 points Singles: 0.5 pts win 2.45 Chlm Tomah 14/1 2.30 Uttx Makthecat 10/1 3.05 Uttx Cheltenham De Vaig 9/1 3.30 Pont Equiana Springs 10/1 4.05 Pont Magical Morning 8/1 = Total stakes 8 pts today Good luck to all ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- zilch so far. I will have another half a point on Magical Morning in the 4.05 Pont at 9/1 to try and get out at B/E 8.5 pts staked today -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RESULTS UPDATE Well nothing went right for me today but I learnt something. In the last race with Magical Morning I had previously thought that the bottom weight Alflaila would have been my choice of the principal contenders for the race. I had been out in the afternoon and when I got back home I just looked at the situation and adjusted my bets with Magical Morning to B/E. However, most of my singles bets are based on what could happen if the principal contenders fail to fire. Hence I should have had a recovery bet on Owen Burrows horse to win the race. In future I will consider the first three in the betting at 10 pm and then take another look at 10 am. If they are the same then I will focus on them to see which one of the thee looks to have the best chance of winning. If another horse(s) takes any of the first three spots I will include that those horses as well to look at. I will not dismiss the original top three in the betting as the odds compilers had good reason to have them there. In theory I could be looking at 6 horses but In the main there will probably be only 4/5 to look at. Of course we all know that in the run up to the race the market could change again, however, I can't spend all day looking at the runners, especially with my low level of investment in horse racing. My loss today was 8.5 pts. MTD -27.40 and YTD -170.42 Spent too much time watching the 1939 film "The Four Feathers" this evening. Lovely old film Edited July 24, 2022 by The Equaliser RESULTS UPDATE Wildgarden, azzybear, richard-westwood and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 4 hours ago, richard-westwood said: It's or more Bookies love that BS thats why they offer it. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 here dittery rule 4.15 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted July 24, 2022 Author Share Posted July 24, 2022 22 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said: Chelmsford City 2.45 - Emperor Spirit @ 9/2 Dubai Station @ 11/2 Pontefract 3.30 - Corinthia Knight - 9/4 4.05 - Dubai Icon @ 8/1 Brunch @ 7/1 Non-runner. -- Not much in the way of flat racing, but good luck whatever you decide to bet on. Results: Chelmsford City 2.45 - Emperor Spirit @ 9/2 - 9th Dubai Station @ 11/2 - 5th Pontefract 3.30 - Corinthia Knight - 9/4 - 1st 4.05 - Dubai Icon @ 8/1 - 4th -- Thankfully I was able to find a winner and just about covered my losses for today. I was looking at next week and I think I will save my money until Goodwood starts on Tuesday. The Equaliser and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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