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Racing Chat - Friday 24th June


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Cartmel's opener this afternoon sees Grageelagh Girl look to right the wrong of the last hunter chase of the season. I'm sure you all remember the weight cloth coming off after the last fence and thus she had to be disqualified. She would have won anyway and I did say in the race review that it wouldn't surprise me if her trainer decided to take advantage of the handicap mark. I also mentioned I didn't think the handicapper could touch the mark given the mark of the 2nd and that is exactly what has happened. She goes back over hurdles tomorrow and she has good hurdles form. She last ran over them at Bangor in 2020 and finished a close 3rd off 108 so even on that run the mark of 102 in a lower grade makes her look well handicapped. She's clearly in very good form at the moment and I think the drop in trip will help as I was worried she wouldn't stay in the final hunter chase of the season. She was entered at Newton Abbot earlier in the week, but I suspect Fergal has chosen this race as his daughter can take the ride against fellow amateur riders again. She's been entered over fences next week so a quick follow up wouldn't be a shock either. This is a very weak contest and I can only really make a case for the two horses who won the 2 divisions of a handicap hurdle over course and distance last month. Dan Gun has only gone up 3lbs but he wasn't quite as impressive as On We Go who has been in great form for her new yard. She's gone up 9lbs, but I still think there could be more to come and she is the biggest danger for me. I will probably end up having a saver on her given I think she might drift as I suspect Grageelagh Girl will be well backed. Sometimes you see something surprising in a race like this, but I'd be a bit surprised if that happened here given the strong claims of those two.
 
Grageelagh Girl @ 7/2 with Bet365
 
In the 2nd race I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Watch Law. Now the Irish horses at the head of the market might just be too good for him, but I have watched his last point run and I think he has a fair bit of ability. He jumped pretty terribly for most of the race and was still only just beaten. He clearly has an engine as they pulled a long way clear of the others. Hopefully he can jump hurdles better because if he does I think he might be capable of out running his odds at the very least.
 
Watch Law ew @ 20/1 with Bet365
 
In the 3.40 I think Post No Bills is worth backing e/w. His pointing form suggests that his handicap mark is one he could well win off and he makes his chasing debut in a pretty poor race this afternoon. He put his best run yet over hurdles last time at Fakenham and I think he can improve again for going over fences. Bookies are going 4 places and I would be a bit surprised if he didn't finish in the first 4 at least. Darius Des Sources is a danger as a wind op seems to have helped him based on his last two efforts and the Perth 3rd last time was his best run in ages. The main danger though is the favourite Mah Mate Bob who ran really well here last time when 2nd in a race he won last season. He's still 11lbs below that winning mark and down into Class 5 company he surely will go close again.
 
Post No Bills ew @ 13/2 with Bet365
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Afternoon cards giving options but not major bets, haven't finished evening cards yet.

1.55 Cart - Bagan - 9/2 each way - looks an interesting runner for Seamus Mullins who is in red hot form (5 wins, 1 place, from last 7 runners). He sends this one runner on a 500 mile plus round trip. It is an amateur jockeys race which I very rarely get involved with. At the price it might be best to play each way (very small loss if placed).

Later on the card I have backed

4.47 Cart - Calliope - 9/2 each way (best now  available - was much bigger).  It is 17lbs lower than it's winning mark, trainer Dianne Sayer has a good record at the course (20% strike rate) and is in decent form ( 2 wins from last 7 runners). There are dangers in the race with Golden Town, and kayfast Warrior, so I have backed each way.

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4.47 Cart Golden Town 4/1

4.55 Nc Rocket Dancer 5/1

5.30 Nc Dual Identity 3/1

6.00 Nc Buniann 11/2

0.2 win dbles = 34.30 & Tebles = 120.2 = 2pts staked

Singles bets

4.47 Cart A mere Bagatelle 0.5 ew 11/2 & Oakmount 0.5 ew at 17/2, 1 pt win on Golden Town at 6.0

4.55 Nc Just His 0.5 ew at 10/1

5.30 Nc Chief's will 0.5 ew at 9/1 and Fiorina 0.5 ew at 15/2

6.00 Nc Tanasoq 0.5 ew at 15/2

6.35 Nc Stone Of Destiny 7/1, Digital 11/1 and Count D'Orsay 10/1: all 0.5 ew.

Total stakes = 12 points

Good luck to all on a very busy competitive day

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4 hours ago, Bang on said:

Afternoon cards giving options but not major bets, haven't finished evening cards yet.

1.55 Cart - Bagan - 9/2 each way - looks an interesting runner for Seamus Mullins who is in red hot form (5 wins, 1 place, from last 7 runners). He sends this one runner on a 500 mile plus round trip. It is an amateur jockeys race which I very rarely get involved with. At the price it might be best to play each way (very small loss if placed).

Later on the card I have backed

4.47 Cart - Calliope - 9/2 each way (best now  available - was much bigger).  It is 17lbs lower than it's winning mark, trainer Dianne Sayer has a good record at the course (20% strike rate) and is in decent form ( 2 wins from last 7 runners). There are dangers in the race with Golden Town, and kayfast Warrior, so I have backed each way.

Disappointing, Bagan looked to be going quite well when a jockey in front unseated, which in turn unseated Bagan's jockey... that's why I rarely bet in non pro jockey races. Calliope finished 3rd so each way small loss.

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6 hours ago, Bang on said:

Disappointing, Bagan looked to be going quite well when a jockey in front unseated, which in turn unseated Bagan's jockey... that's why I rarely bet in non pro jockey races. Calliope finished 3rd so each way small loss.

Not sure how what happened to Bagan had anything to do with the fact it was an amateur rider race. Some of the jockey's in the race are better than a fair few pros.

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8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

4.47 Cart Golden Town 4/1

4.55 Nc Rocket Dancer 5/1

5.30 Nc Dual Identity 3/1

6.00 Nc Buniann 11/2

0.2 win dbles = 34.30 & Tebles = 120.2 = 2pts staked

Singles bets

4.47 Cart A mere Bagatelle 0.5 ew 11/2 & Oakmount 0.5 ew at 17/2, 1 pt win on Golden Town at 6.0

4.55 Nc Just His 0.5 ew at 10/1

5.30 Nc Chief's will 0.5 ew at 9/1 and Fiorina 0.5 ew at 15/2

6.00 Nc Tanasoq 0.5 ew at 15/2

6.35 Nc Stone Of Destiny 7/1, Digital 11/1 and Count D'Orsay 10/1: all 0.5 ew.

Total stakes = 12 points

Good luck to all on a very busy competitive day

RESULTS UPDATE

No disaster as a couple of winners almost paid for the losers.  It was very disappointing that the horses at the front end of the market let me down.  Just Hiss was Timeform top-rated though 3rd top-rated by RPR.  A small loss of 0.85 pts = MTD -68.87 & YTD of -226.442

Let's hope I don't cock up the KO cup final tomorrow ?

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12 hours ago, Darran said:

Not sure how what happened to Bagan had anything to do with the fact it was an amateur rider race. Some of the jockey's in the race are better than a fair few pros.

Amateur and apprentice jockey races always seem to have 'some' riders who are always a bit too eager to impress and end up causing problems for those who are more 'professional' in their approach.

I don't have a problem backing a selection ridden by an amateur or apprentice... but not in a race confined to them.

I agree, some pro jockeys are very over rated ( won't name names) but I tend to avoid them if at all possible.

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6 hours ago, Bang on said:

Amateur and apprentice jockey races always seem to have 'some' riders who are always a bit too eager to impress and end up causing problems for those who are more 'professional' in their approach.

I don't have a problem backing a selection ridden by an amateur or apprentice... but not in a race confined to them.

I agree, some pro jockeys are very over rated ( won't name names) but I tend to avoid them if at all possible.

Riders can be a big plus in amateur races. James King for example yesterday gave the 2nd a cracking ride and you can make it pay in amateur races.

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