iroquois Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Im tired of developing systems based on cold stats! My conclusion is that the league table lie. Many times the clubs on the top of the league are not the best playing football. Lots of times we assist true surprises. Clubs at the bottom beating the best ones! I suppose some lucky is intrinsic to the game. But the majority of times, the club who lost is not the better playing. So i develope some principles and a formula to rank the teams! 1) football is moment. I don't care about games played far ago. 2) the league table lie! 3) i don't care about the results, they lie too! 4) i only care about the level of play, how good they are, independent of the final result. 5) i develope a formula that calculate the level of play I don't put here picks. Only % of win. So, here are the games for tomorrow: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iroquois Posted April 29, 2022 Author Share Posted April 29, 2022 Results: Analyzes: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iroquois Posted April 29, 2022 Author Share Posted April 29, 2022 Analysis: The bookers fail a lot when they publish the odds! They give 14.00 to furth? This is equivalent to 7% of probabilities of win!!! Too low! My model give then 26%=3.85. This is more in accord with the final result(1-1). Sevilla vs cadiz. The bookers give 6.50 to cadiz. How is this possible? My formula that calculate the level of play of a team say than cadiz is playing better than sevilla in this period of the season. 62%=1.61. More close to the final result (1-1) of the game. The 6.50 the booker gives equal to only 15% of a probability of winning!!! Strasbourg vs psg. My model tell me that this will be a close game. With 46% for strasbourg and 56% for psg. The bookers give 3.60 to strasbourg, only 28% of a chance for a positive result! The game finish with a tie! Utrecht vs nijmegen My model tell that this will be a close game too And it was right. The final result was 1-0. Here the booker were more close of reality than my model. Famalicao vs estoril. Estoril saw a red card early in the game, transforming the game to his end. So i don't say nothing here! My model give a good chance for estoril win. They were playing better than famalicao. But the red card was to heavy for them! Qpr vs sheff. Utd Nothing new here. My model and the bookers give a clear chance of winning for the away team!. Not bad for the model that tries to prove that the level of play is more important than the final result! Lets continue. This is a work in progress... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 When you compare the bookies 7% to your 26% that seems to ignore the fact that the bookies will have priced the draw as well. Given that your % for each game adds up to 100%, what about the chance of a draw. It feels like you’re not comparing like with like. Torque and Smiles Tennis 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iroquois Posted April 29, 2022 Author Share Posted April 29, 2022 They are giving 7% as a chance of win. Im giving 26%. Those are winning chances, not draw! harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iroquois Posted April 30, 2022 Author Share Posted April 30, 2022 Saturday...hard games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iroquois Posted April 30, 2022 Author Share Posted April 30, 2022 (edited) Nice day! The model beats the bookie today. Only one game finish with a draw. I never look to the odds or the results or the table or the points! I only use the formula to evaluate the level of play of each team. Edited April 30, 2022 by iroquois Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iroquois Posted May 1, 2022 Author Share Posted May 1, 2022 Sunday forecast Some interesting stuff here! Barcelona vs mallorca. My model predicts a close game here (52%-48%). The bookers don't think so, they give 9.50 to mallorca. Clearly they think differently! Let's see what happens...9.50 is an amazing odd. Even the X2 here is a value option! Sittard vs feyernoord is another game who have a big discrepancy between my model and the bookers. My model predict for this game 49% of win for sittard and 51% for feyernoord... The bookers are giving 6.75 to sittard, a huge value here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 @iroquois hope you have something going here with your model but as @harry_rag says you cannot compare it to the bookies odds as they have factored in the draw to their odds. Looking at your games today I would say that your model fancies R.Sociedad @ 2.63 and Osasuna @ 2.75 which would not be a bad double. The Barcelona game and Feyenoord I would say that your model says it will be a draw, but probably a favourite win in both games. You need to decide what the difference between your %win means i.e difference of <10% is a draw or double chance on the bookies outsider. 15 hours ago, iroquois said: Nice day! The model beats the bookie today. Only one game finish with a draw. I never look to the odds or the results or the table or the points! I only use the formula to evaluate the level of play of each team. Surely you cannot say you beat the bookies on one day as above and then go against your model for the Barcelona & Feyenoord games. Hope you can find something out of this model but you must define where you are going with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iroquois Posted May 1, 2022 Author Share Posted May 1, 2022 You are seeing things differently than I am. if the booker gives a probability of an event happening and so do I, that's all that matters. The model follows a theory of value. When the model says for example that team A has a 52% win and team B has a 48% chance. It's suggesting that it's going to be a balanced game, where any result can happen! Even the draw. It's up to the bettor to analyze the booker's odds and see where the value is! I don't care if the booker divides the percentages by the tie! what matters is that the model gives a 48% chance for mallorca and the booker pays 9.50! The booker says that the game will be unbalanced and that's why he pays Mallorca a lot and the model says it will be a balanced game where any result can happen. According to the winning % of both teams, in this game a draw is also a value bet. Since the model suggests a balanced game, with a high probability of succeeding and the booker pays 5.60! The richness of the model is in the interpretation and the existing value based on the odds offered by the bookmaker. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iroquois Posted May 1, 2022 Author Share Posted May 1, 2022 Draw day? Lots of ties. Not a good day today. The model and the bookers were overwhelmed by ties? Guimaraes was winning and tie Osasuna was winning and tie Real sociedad was winning and tie... Barcelona gas a difficult game but won at last! alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 To play devil’s advocate (and “paraphrase” your take on yesterday) I’d say it’s a clear win for the bookies today. The three games they made closest were all draws including the two where they made both teams odds against but you had your strongest favourites. Their 3 strongest favourites all won, including the 2 games you had closest to a coin toss. Best of 3? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iroquois Posted May 1, 2022 Author Share Posted May 1, 2022 At least i try to develope things on my own. You copy and past the bets of other guy?...easy life and with time to criticize the effort of other people. You are here like a vampire! Begging to see others fail, are you working for the bookies? Get a life! froment and harry_rag 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Firstly, apologies for any offence. I feel I made a fair comment to illustrate the point that there were various ways to interpret a small number of results and you should be wary of being too quick to draw a favourable conclusion. Let’s see how things look with a decent sample size. Secondly, your criticism is well wide of the mark as I’ve posted plenty of long running threads in systems and strategy (with varying degrees of success) including the current anytime goalscorer system which is very much all my own work and has been going for 5 months and over 300 bets. I also tracked every single bet I posted on here last year and returned over 2000 points profit. I took over the thread posting the KP tips years ago and continue to do it as there’s a degree of demand, I don’t claim any credit for the results. I suspect I at least match you in terms of the extent of my own endeavours to find ways to beat the bookies. Don't mistake taking an interest and constructive criticism for a desire to see you fail. Your system obviously takes a very different view to the bookies on a lot of games and it will be interesting to see if that helps you gain an edge of any sort in the long term. Football is a game of relatively few goals and small winning margins though so I wouldn’t bother looking too closely at each individual result for a favourable interpretation. Labrador, Torque, froment and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iroquois Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 No offence. My answer was bad too! Im not here to promote myself. Im here trying to find something useful to help the community. Fight the bookers is my objective. Not fighting my comrades! Have a nice day! harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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