gbettle Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Howdy all, Hope this message finds everyone well - roll on Cheltenham. Speaking of Cheltenham, I've read an interesting theory*, that, "in non handicap chases leading up to Cheltenham the favourites do disproportionally well as the uncompetitive nature of the racing due to the festival approaching led to small fields and underbet favourites." From that article TL;DR: "... in simple numbers qualifiers from February favourites have shown a profit since 1998 to 2019 in 15 months and a loss in only 7 months to SP (starting price, *not used BSP as not going that long) and an overall profit to SP of 5.5% with an A/E 1.1. Incredible really on a massive sample size of 1600 qualifiers on short prices at SP." I've checked that - with Adrian Massey - and indeed a BSP profit is achieved: 2012 to 2021, 630 bets, 330 winners, 109.2% returns remove the novice chases: 2012 to 2021, 321 bets, 179 winners, 119.0% returns Would anyone be kind enough to peer review these \ collaborate with their own another source\dataset? * - https://www.mylittletip.co.uk/post/knowing-too-much MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I only have numbers for the last 8 years but these do show positive returns. For December and January I have 46 winners from 117 runners with an AE of 1.11. Hurdles have an AE of 1.22, chases 0.84. Worryingly, the last 3 years have all shown losses ! Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MCLARKE said: I only have numbers for the last 8 years but these do show positive returns. For December and January I have 46 winners from 117 runners with an AE of 1.11. Hurdles have an AE of 1.22, chases 0.84. Worryingly, the last 3 years have all shown losses ! Maybe has something to do with the dreaded ' bookmaker S.P's' as opposed to true market forces. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: I only have numbers for the last 8 years but these do show positive returns. For December and January I have 46 winners from 117 runners with an AE of 1.11. Hurdles have an AE of 1.22, chases 0.84. Worryingly, the last 3 years have all shown losses ! Remember the whole premise is in February, the month before the festival. I looked at my own dwh - RP and BSP datasets - and all other months were dire, only adding strength to the OP's original February dataset. Bang on 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Apologies, I misinterpreted what you said, I was looking at Cheltenham favourites before March. I will have another look. gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I've had another look. For the years 2014 to 2021 I get 194 winners from 382 runners with an AE of 1.024. For some reason French bred have an exceptional record, with 82 winners from 134 runners and an AE of 1.20. Irish bred are 88 from 200 with an AE of 0.91. 1st last time out 58 from 105 with an AE of 1.05. As you say, novices have a poor record so exclude them and you are left with 100 from 199 with an AE of 1.06. Hot favourites may be best avoided, those with a BSP of less than 1.50 have a record of 48 from 69 with an AE of 0.91. Certainly food for thought. gbettle, Wildgarden and Budgie 65 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Does the 3.15 at Leopardstown qualify for this? Asterion Forlonge (current favourite) passes the French bred test but has terrible from figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 hour ago, MCLARKE said: Does the 3.15 at Leopardstown qualify for this? Asterion Forlonge (current favourite) passes the French bred test but has terrible from figures. Yes, I have 3 races today: market_id date time course_name race_title 1.194231781 2022-02-05 1515 Leopardstown Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) 1.194232015 2022-02-05 1538 Wetherby Stratstone Harrogate Open Hunters' Chase (6) 1.194231896 2022-02-05 1619 Musselburgh Bet365 Scottish Open Hunters' Chase (4) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Yep, forgot about hunter chases, I tend to treat them as a separate entity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 Only 1/4 for the month: date time course_name pos sp bsp fav race_title 03/02/2022 1310 Wincanton 2 1.5f 1.62 Alcala Colin Lewis Memorial Open Hunters' Chase (6) 05/02/2022 1515 Leopardstown 4 3.5F 4.17 Asterion Forlonge Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) 05/02/2022 1538 Wetherby 1 2.37f 2.34 Dubai Quest Stratstone Harrogate Open Hunters' Chase (6) 05/02/2022 1619 Musselburgh 2 2.25f 2.4 Soldier Of Love Bet365 Scottish Open Hunters' Chase (4) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 6, 2022 Author Share Posted February 6, 2022 (edited) 1 race today: date time course_name race_title 2022-02-06 1350 Leopardstown Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1) Edited February 6, 2022 by gbettle Removed the novice race MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 (edited) On 1/27/2022 at 4:38 PM, MCLARKE said: For some reason French bred have an exceptional record, with 82 winners from 134 runners and an AE of 1.20. Irish bred are 88 from 200 with an AE of 0.91. If you look @ the previous form of most French runners , (V.Soft - Soft the conditions most likely to occur in the month of Feb) you may find some correlation ? You could also also try from the sample races french winners A All French Runners X other winners B All other runners y Sum of winners A+B Sum of Runners X+Y Impact Value = (A / A+B) / (X / X+Y) IV of <1 not good IV of 1 = average , so an IV of >1 is significant Edited February 6, 2022 by Valiant Thor info gbettle, Budgie 65, Doedelzak and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 races today: date time course_name race_title 2022-02-09 1245 Fairyhouse Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Mares Beginners Chase 2022-02-09 1345 Fairyhouse Fairyhouse Easter Festival 16th 18th April Rated Chase 2022-02-09 1600 Ludlow Chase Meredith Memorial Trophy Open Hunters' Chase (4) Doedelzak 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doedelzak Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Two from three ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I suppose one issue with this is knowing which horse is going to be favourite, in the 1.45 Full Time Score was only favourite at the off. Doedelzak and Zilzalian 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 more today: date time course_name race_title 2022-02-10 1345 Thurles Betvictor Beginners Chase 2022-02-10 1640 Ffos Las Fedwen Tentage Welsh Foxhunter Open Hunters' Chase (4) Doedelzak 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 11, 2022 Author Share Posted February 11, 2022 date time course_name race_title 2022-02-11 1355 Bangor-on-Dee John Hewitt Memorial Open Hunters' Chase (6) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 date time course_name race_title 2022-02-12 1425 Newbury Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) (1) 2022-02-12 1433 Uttoxeter Virgin Bet Mares' Chase (2) 2022-02-12 1500 Newbury Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) (1) 2022-02-12 1600 Naas Bba Ireland Limited Opera Hat Mares Chase (Listed) 2022-02-12 1630 Naas Congratulations To Naas Gaa On An Incredible Year Hunters Chase Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Update for the month: MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 date time course_name race_title 2022-02-13 1340 Punchestown Hollywoodbets Bet 10 Get 30 P.P. Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase 2022-02-13 1600 Exeter Virgin Bet Mares' Chase (Listed) (1) MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 10 hours ago, gbettle said: date time course_name race_title 2022-02-13 1340 Punchestown Hollywoodbets Bet 10 Get 30 P.P. Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase 2022-02-13 1600 Exeter Virgin Bet Mares' Chase (Listed) (1) 3rd Tout Est Permis and 1st Snow Leopardess, so +0.20pts for the day. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 One race today: date time course_name race_title 2022-02-15 1630 Lingfield Park At The Races App Market Movers Open Hunters' Chase (6) MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 11:49 AM, gbettle said: One race today: date time course_name race_title 2022-02-15 1630 Lingfield Park At The Races App Market Movers Open Hunters' Chase (6) 1st, No. 3 Dolphin Square BSP 1.97 : "Tracked leaders, made challenge after 7th, led after 2 out (usual 3 out), ridden and went clear before last, comfortably (op 8/11 tchd Evens)" MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 races today: date time course_name race_title 2022-02-17 1455 Sandown Park Castel Royal Artillery Gold Cup (Chase For Military Amateur Jockeys) (3) 2022-02-17 1615 Clonmel Monksgrange Beginners Chase Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 10:58 AM, gbettle said: 2012 to 2021, 630 bets, 330 winners, 109.2% returns remove the novice chases: 2012 to 2021, 321 bets, 179 winners, 119.0% returns Would anyone be kind enough to peer review these \ collaborate with their own another source\dataset? * - https://www.mylittletip.co.uk/post/knowing-too-much From 20yrs data There were 573 runners started Fav or JT Fav of those 306 won @ an ave winning odds of 2.06 This gives a return of 629.50 @ book sp with a profit of 56.50 ( 9.8%) if backed @ 1pt blindly. The IV shows favs in these races @ this time of year are 2.7 times more likely to win than average (IV of 1.00) **For the pedants out there who think the total sr should equal 100% its due to jt favs , 2nd favs etc ** ATB VT gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: From 20yrs data There were 573 runners started Fav or JT Fav of those 306 won @ an ave winning odds of 2.06 This gives a return of 629.50 @ book sp with a profit of 56.50 ( 9.8%) if backed @ 1pt blindly. The IV shows favs in these races @ this time of year are 2.7 times more likely to win than average (IV of 1.00) **For the pedants out there who think the total sr should equal 100% its due to jt favs , 2nd favs etc ** ATB VT Brilliant analysis @Valiant Thor Many thanks! One question; does this exclude Novice races? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 (edited) 1 minute ago, gbettle said: Brilliant analysis @Valiant Thor Many thanks! One question; does this exclude Novice races? NO just a blanket bet of all NonHcp chases Edited February 17, 2022 by Valiant Thor gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 (edited) 18 minutes ago, gbettle said: exclude Novice races? Average winning odds of 2.08 Returned 364.67 to 1pt staked profit 22.67 ( 6.6%) There you go ATB VT Edited February 17, 2022 by Valiant Thor Wildgarden, MCLARKE and gbettle 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 @gbettle @MCLARKE I wouldnt get 2 carried away with those results they are for NH tracks only That is NOT INCLUDING mixed tracks ie Flat & Jumps and AW & Jumps courses I'll run a a month by month breakdown of all the tracks later (going out for some lunch now) gbettle and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 (edited) I have gone through the data again due to some errors while trying to loop through the data Cleaned the data so theres no corrupt cells so should be ok now As you can see below the front 3 in the market most have above average IV's , but due to overbetting ,WOTC & WOM the market isnt far from spot on give or take a few % either way FEB without Novice Chases Ave odds 2.16 Returned 938.36 P/L -29.64 FEB All Non Hcp Chases Ave odds 2.10 Returned 1540.07 P/L -38.93 Mine are to book sp so maybe backing @ BF sp some slight improvement Taking years you put up 2012 - 2021 I get..... FEB All Non Hcp Chases Ave odds 2.10 Returned 713.63 P/L 28.63 10yr return = 4% Ex longest losing run 12 FEB without Novice Chases Ave odds 2.12 Returned 426.35 P/L 32.35 10yr return = 8% Ex longest losing run 11 Seems 2012-2021 are just variance in the results as the more years are added the results tend to revert to the mean (approx 5%-10% overound) and 8% profit over that timespan is not realy a worthwhile target even at a decent sr the cramped odds could and most probably would wipe the whole lot out with an above average bad run . I wouldnt be throwing my lads inheritance at it thats for sure. But you never know G'Luck ATB VT PS Forgot to add, non of the 2nd or 3rd favs with above average IV's make a profit either for the same reasons as the favs ( just saving anyone time whose thinking of checking those out ) Edited February 17, 2022 by Valiant Thor PS MCLARKE and gbettle 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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