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Underbet Non-Hcap Cheltenham Chase favourites - February 2022

gbettle

By gbettle
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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gbettle

gbettle

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1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said:

I have gone through the data again due to some errors while trying to loop through the data :@
Cleaned the data so theres no corrupt cells  so should be ok now :hope

As you can see below the front 3 in the market most have above average IV's , but due to overbetting ,WOTC & WOM the market isnt far from spot on give or take a few % either way

image.png.ed6b70501ecdc6e2df6f7b2cb8cb1293.png

FEB without Novice Chases Ave odds 2.16
Returned 938.36
P/L -29.64

image.png.3066755f655845d9e47d06e58ec4542d.png

FEB All Non Hcp Chases Ave odds 2.10
Returned 1540.07
P/L -38.93

Mine are to book sp so maybe backing @ BF sp some slight improvement

Taking  years you put up  2012 - 2021 I get.....

image.png.626fcbd5cfddbdac09a674e196e8894f.png

FEB All Non Hcp Chases Ave odds 2.10
Returned 713.63
P/L 28.63
10yr return = 4%
Ex longest losing run 12

image.png.87b11079397a4799ee4a59cfd3e53b4f.png

FEB without Novice Chases Ave odds 2.12
Returned 426.35
P/L 32.35
10yr return = 8%
Ex longest losing run 11

Seems 2012-2021 are just variance in the results as the more years are added the results tend to revert to the mean (approx 5%-10% overound)
and 8% profit over that timespan is not realy a worthwhile target even at a decent sr the cramped odds could and most probably would wipe the whole lot out with an above average bad run .
I wouldnt be throwing my lads inheritance at it thats for sure.
But you never know :hope
G'Luck

ATB
VT

PS
Forgot to add, non of the 2nd or 3rd favs with above average IV's make a profit either for the same reasons as the favs ( just saving anyone time whose thinking of checking those out ) :ok

 

 

 

 

Wow, many thanks @Valiant Thor I do love a good data analysis ?

The last 2 tables have headers with DEC instead of FEB. That's a typo \ miss-print I hope.

Cheers,

G.

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Valiant Thor

Valiant Thor

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, gbettle said:

Wow, many thanks @Valiant Thor I do love a good data analysis ?

The last 2 tables have headers with DEC instead of FEB. That's a typo \ miss-print I hope.

Cheers,

G.

My bad

I just sent the results to Decembers sheet to save overwriting the results in the FEB sheets before copy & pasting to the post and didnt bother changing the month title :(

Edited by Valiant Thor
grammar
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gbettle

gbettle

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11 hours ago, gbettle said:

2 races today: 

date        time  course_name   race_title
2022-02-17  1455  Sandown Park  Castel Royal Artillery Gold Cup (Chase For Military Amateur Jockeys) (3)
2022-02-17  1615  Clonmel       Monksgrange Beginners Chase

 

Since the LSP is based on BSP, I'll differ with that - when I can - joint favs. 

So, I'll count myself lucky that Krabat is 4.3 and Calvallino (5th) is 4.33: 

date		time	course_name	favourite	pos	bsp	LSP	bank
17/02/2022	1455	Sandown Park	Hogan's Height	2	3.35	-1.00	4.38
17/02/2022	1615	Clonmel		Krabat		1	4.3	3.30	7.68

 

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Valiant Thor

Valiant Thor

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Posted
1 hour ago, gbettle said:

Since the LSP is based on BSP, I'll differ with that - when I can - joint favs. 

So, I'll count myself lucky that Krabat is 4.3 and Calvallino (5th) is 4.33: 

date		time	course_name	favourite	pos	bsp	LSP	bank
17/02/2022	1455	Sandown Park	Hogan's Height	2	3.35	-1.00	4.38
17/02/2022	1615	Clonmel		Krabat		1	4.3	3.30	7.68

 

FEB without Novice Chases
Favs Only

image.png.8f41e3b4e2a121b54ce82ab555ec593a.png

 

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gbettle

gbettle

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4 today: 

date        time  course_name   race_title
2022-02-19  1530  Gowran Park   Red Mills Chase (Grade 2)
2022-02-19  1538  Ascot         Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) (1)
2022-02-19  1605  Gowran Park   Holden Plant Rentals Beginners Chase
2022-02-19  1625  Haydock Park  Pertemps Network Walrus Open Hunters' Chase (3)

 

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Valiant Thor

Valiant Thor

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Posted
On 1/27/2022 at 10:58 AM, gbettle said:

Speaking of Cheltenham, I've read an interesting theory*, that, "in non handicap chases leading up to Cheltenham the favourites do disproportionally well as the uncompetitive nature of the racing due to the festival approaching led to small fields and underbet favourites."

I wouldnt think so  :unsure

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gbettle

gbettle

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5 minutes ago, gbettle said:

Problem Exists Between Keyboard And Chair 

It could also be PICNIC - Problem In Chair Not In Computer

Thanks again @MCLARKE definitely my fault.

I changed my script:

$ cat chase.sh
egrep -v 'Hurdle|Handicap|Novice' "$1" | egrep -i 'market_id|chase' | cut -d',' -f 2-5 | column -t -s','
 

to:

egrep -v 'Hurdle|Handicap|Novice' "$1" | cut -d',' -f 2-5 | egrep -i 'race_title|chase' | column -t -s','

 

 

 

2022-02 non-hcap chasers - update.jpg

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gbettle

gbettle

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12 hours ago, gbettle said:

4 today: 

date        time  course_name   race_title
2022-02-19  1530  Gowran Park   Red Mills Chase (Grade 2)
2022-02-19  1538  Ascot         Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) (1)
2022-02-19  1605  Gowran Park   Holden Plant Rentals Beginners Chase
2022-02-19  1625  Haydock Park  Pertemps Network Walrus Open Hunters' Chase (3)

 

2/4

image.thumb.png.6957a1420614b61022fcfafcc5a997f5.png

Edited by gbettle
2/4
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Valiant Thor

Valiant Thor

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27 minutes ago, gbettle said:

1 candidate race today: 

date        time  course_name  race_title
2022-02-23  1635  Doncaster    Virgin Bet Open Hunters' Chase (6)

Current favourite:

No. 1 Dolphin Square @ 1.83 Paddypower\Betfair

I have DS as a 11/10 (2.1) shot , (my top rated) , 1.83 looks a bit short to me
If I was betting in this race i would rather be on Le Breuil @ 4.5 (my 2nd best rated @ 2/1)
A no bet race for me as I only bet If its my top rated and @ greater odds than my estimated odds

As an aside : shouldn't your winning bets be multiplied by 0.98 to cater for the 2% min BF tariff  :unsure

ATB
VT

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gbettle

gbettle

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16 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

I have DS as a 11/10 (2.1) shot , (my top rated) , 1.83 looks a bit short to me
If I was betting in this race i would rather be on Le Breuil @ 4.5 (my 2nd best rated @ 2/1)
A no bet race for me as I only bet If its my top rated and @ greater odds than my estimated odds

As an aside : shouldn't your winning bets be multiplied by 0.98 to cater for the 2% min BF tariff  :unsure

ATB
VT

Dolphin Square is slightly drifting on BF - you might ask for evens or more. For example, I took a market line of BF markets at 09:52 GMT and DS was 2.08.

In regards to the BF commission, I suppose so - it's only a 1pt LSP for making comparisons easier. I could always end the test at 95 or 98% LSP.

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Valiant Thor

Valiant Thor

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17 minutes ago, gbettle said:

Dolphin Square is slightly drifting on BF - you might ask for evens or more. For example, I took a market line of BF markets at 09:52 GMT and DS was 2.08.

In regards to the BF commission, I suppose so - it's only a 1pt LSP for making comparisons easier. I could always end the test at 95 or 98% LSP.

My bets on bf are automated from 10pm the night before from excel using gruss betting assistant (my base price + 15% for profit and cover the 2% comm)
I never touch it just let it carry on on its own . :ok

 

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gbettle

gbettle

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With no candidate races tomorrow, that ends this test.

To re-cap, start from first post in this thread, or for those who find it TL;DR:

"in non handicap chases leading up to Cheltenham the favourites do disproportionally well as the uncompetitive nature of the racing due to the festival approaching led to small fields and underbet favourites."

So, for this February: 

Bets	Wins	Exp. Wins	A/E	LSP
30	17	14.37		1.18	+8.93
			
Avg BSP		Avg Win BSP		
2.41		2.29

image.thumb.png.9c11153865a549c595a1bddec817221d.png

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