Smiles Tennis Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Hi everyone, It's been a while. Hope you're all good. After Covid putting a stop to sports etc for so long I looked at getting back to it a while ago but the form wasn't there to provide the data so I held off. Well now they've been playing again I thought I would start recording some paper trading bets with a view to going back to money in the new year some time if it seems OK to follow for real. Quick points. Paper trading only at the moment Using Betfair prices when I research selections (I have added profit already on the spreadsheet so it's easy to track when results are in, or change to a loss, and includes commission from my what if figure) I am using a mean regression algorithm that crunches stats and data and throws up selections for players who might have been under/over performing compared to market sentiment. Seeing as the markets are quite efficient, the players should return to winning/losing an amount of matches that their odds say they should win. I will try to share the paper trade selections often, but at times I will be away so can't always do it. I will share ones I put on the spreadsheet, so you won't just see random winning selections added. Any comments and discussion are welcome. Hopefully it's interesting enough for someone to keep an eye on and maybe see how it goes, rather than just me talking to the thread by myself! A few selections I have picked for tonight, paper trading with £100 stakes. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 I'll be watching with interest @Tennis Picks BOL Smiles Tennis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 11, 2021 Author Share Posted November 11, 2021 Tonight's results. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 11, 2021 Author Share Posted November 11, 2021 One more for the early hours of the morning. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 A winner last night. Five selections for this evening. I am running an ultra marathon in Wales tomorrow so won't be back on the computer until Sunday at some point so will update then and check for more selections. Simadin and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 Backing Dellien v Coria 2.32 is a selection, just checking more now but that starts soon. Wildgarden and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 Wildgarden and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 14, 2021 Author Share Posted November 14, 2021 Couple for early evening, still paper trading of course, until at least the new year. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 14, 2021 Author Share Posted November 14, 2021 One more selection for the early hours of the morning. I will update in the morning, and hopefully do a little total so far of profit/loss, ROI etc. Maybe weekly would be good for this, we'll see. Wildgarden and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 I'm following your final selection, only getting on now so I'm a little late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 14, 2021 Author Share Posted November 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: I'm following your final selection, only getting on now so I'm a little late. Your call if you're using money. I am still paper trading after covid causing so much tennis to be missed. Seems to be still a method that works though although it's early days and I will be using money in the new year if it continues to turn a profit. I imagine it won't be this lucrative longer term but profit is profit and profit is what we want. Wildgarden and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Tennis Picks said: Your call if you're using money. I am still paper trading after covid causing so much tennis to be missed. Seems to be still a method that works though although it's early days and I will be using money in the new year if it continues to turn a profit. I imagine it won't be this lucrative longer term but profit is profit and profit is what we want. I only bet small - I put £1 on Garbine Muguruza to win. Smiles Tennis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 Little update for the totals. No bets today so far but will check the 8pm matches later today. ROI is way too high for long term, I'd expect it to come down to maybe 3-5% if there's a decent edge to this method but time will tell. Wildgarden and alexcaruso808 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 back Rublev v Tsitsipas, 2.16 alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 Back swiatek v Badosa, 2.46 manic with kids, sorry, will update properly soon Wildgarden and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 Sabalenka is a back in the early hours of the morning so complete the night. Sorry for the short notice earlier, business problems to fix then young children to deal with meant I didn't get a chance to check until just before they started. Wildgarden and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 16, 2021 Author Share Posted November 16, 2021 Couple of picks for today. alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 16, 2021 Author Share Posted November 16, 2021 One more for the early hours... Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 One for in a while Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 One more for the early hours. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, Tennis Picks said: One more for the early hours. doing urs inplay when losing... trying to get some extra value as i know the swings on tennis cant make it good. sakkari yday i had 8-1 but sadly lost the 3rd lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 7 hours ago, Wildgarden said: doing urs inplay when losing... trying to get some extra value as i know the swings on tennis cant make it good. sakkari yday i had 8-1 but sadly lost the 3rd lol In an old thread of using a very similar method I would set the bets 10/20 ticks higher to match in play. After a while I noticed there were lots that were winning easily and not getting matched so I scrapped that idea. I'm not sure the long term results would show it's worth it but def worth recording the bets and seeing how it goes. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 Two for this evening. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 (edited) 5 hours ago, Tennis Picks said: Two for this evening. 6-0 medvedsev 1st set... think market overreacted on at 9-1 now 5-2 inplay after sinner broke 2nd set. im keeping on to the end. lost but traded 1.2 inplay for a tidy cashout. Edited November 18, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 19, 2021 Author Share Posted November 19, 2021 Few for this evening, still paper trading. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 2 hours ago, Tennis Picks said: Few for this evening, still paper trading. cheers will try trade again and update for another side gig on them... yday was 7-1 after trade out. Smiles Tennis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 Back to a more sensible % for ROI at least after a few losses. Nothing for today, maybe this evenings matches but I will check this afternoon. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Are you getting your stats from somewhere and feeding them into a spreadsheet which calculates what bets you should place? I know you most likely don't want to give specifics, but I'm interested if you're using a script, or spreadsheet, or software? I'm just a nerd who likes to know how this is done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said: Are you getting your stats from somewhere and feeding them into a spreadsheet which calculates what bets you should place? I know you most likely don't want to give specifics, but I'm interested if you're using a script, or spreadsheet, or software? I'm just a nerd who likes to know how this is done. I have software a friend built that collates all results, odds, stats etc for all matches. I check current markets for matches, feed info into the software that pulls the historical data for similar matches, then shows whether I should bet or not. That's all I can say really without going into specifics too much. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 54 minutes ago, Tennis Picks said: I have software a friend built that collates all results, odds, stats etc for all matches. I check current markets for matches, feed info into the software that pulls the historical data for similar matches, then shows whether I should bet or not. That's all I can say really without going into specifics too much. It is very impressive! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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