Smiles Tennis Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: It is very impressive! It will be if it works long term, it's not impressive if it doesn't make any money lol alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Tennis Picks said: It will be if it works long term, it's not impressive if it doesn't make any money lol Very true, looks pretty good so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 One for this evening. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 two trades where a loss last night but still in profit position atm of +5 lsp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 21, 2021 Author Share Posted November 21, 2021 Results update. Looks like nothing for tomorrow day at the moment. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 Still no bets. Very little money in the markets on Betfair. I am usually looking for at least a few thousand to be matched to have a roughly settled price to work with. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 Ok, the tennis is back so I am back. My business is manic at the moment so I will try to get selections done when I can but I might miss some as it's constant at the moment. Current results total is visible in the top right of the image. I have made selections up to the 06.00 matches, (stopping at Kerber match) and will do those in the morning if they're still to play. Still paper trading, Betfair prices used at the time of research. Let's see how it continues to fare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Lots of losers today, didn't get any more picks done as to be honest I forgot. I was busy with work and it's been a while since I was doing this so it didn't even occur to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ten selections for tonight's matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Tonight's picks. A better day yesterday with a bit of profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 Much better last night with only one loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 Only 4 picks for tonight's matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 Tonight's selections, a few more than last night where we had a very small loss but still in profit overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 Only four selections for tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I'm curious why you're using level stakes, unless it's just for the sake of simplicity. If you're working out a player's historic performance within a particular odds band then surely there's times where the odds are only just above that performance and other times where the odds are way away from where you think they should be. Surely those times where the odds deviate particularly severely from what you think they should be demand a bigger stake than those where the deviation is smaller. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 Four overnight picks. Might be more in the early morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 1:59 AM, Torque said: I'm curious why you're using level stakes, unless it's just for the sake of simplicity. If you're working out a player's historic performance within a particular odds band then surely there's times where the odds are only just above that performance and other times where the odds are way away from where you think they should be. Surely those times where the odds deviate particularly severely from what you think they should be demand a bigger stake than those where the deviation is smaller. Yes, level stakes just for simplicity at the moment. You're right in that there are some differences in the level of performance when betting, and these could be used to stake via Kelly in the future. I might start noting down the win percentages (actual and expected) and see if larger differences result in more wins. I will add it to the spreadsheet. Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 One more selection for the Sabalenka match. I have now added the expected and actual % for the match. I always go off of the fave. So for this first one, Sabalenka is 1.37 (73%), her actual win rate when around these odds is 77%, so I expect (hope) for her to come closer to 73% over time. Hence backing Kanepi. Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Kanepi pulled it off, even though she made it hard for herself. Tiny profit overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Three tonight. Couple of Challenger matches in the morning have a bit matched but huge gaps in the prices so will check those again tomorrow for possible selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just one pick tonight. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 One more pick tonight. I was trying to think back to before covid times when I was doing well with this method and I think it didn't perform that well at Slams. I am hoping with the extra matches from multiple tournaments it will pick up when the AO is over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 41 minutes ago, Tennis Picks said: One more pick tonight. I was trying to think back to before covid times when I was doing well with this method and I think it didn't perform that well at Slams. I am hoping with the extra matches from multiple tournaments it will pick up when the AO is over. You need a big sample before drawing any conclusions. A very big sample. I'd say five figures. The smaller the dataset the more likely that conclusions are drawn that aren't necessarily correct, like the one you mention about Slams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 hours ago, Torque said: You need a big sample before drawing any conclusions. A very big sample. I'd say five figures. The smaller the dataset the more likely that conclusions are drawn that aren't necessarily correct, like the one you mention about Slams. yeah, the picks come thick and fast when multiple tournaments are on. They did before anyway. I did keep records for a long time but got rid of them as I thought I wouldn't need them again when covid came. Even after covid, the players didn't have any sort of form for 18 months so I decided to just wait. I wish I kept the records now. Maybe they will show up in a corner of my hard drive one day lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 24 minutes ago, Tennis Picks said: yeah, the picks come thick and fast when multiple tournaments are on. They did before anyway. I did keep records for a long time but got rid of them as I thought I wouldn't need them again when covid came. Even after covid, the players didn't have any sort of form for 18 months so I decided to just wait. I wish I kept the records now. Maybe they will show up in a corner of my hard drive one day lol It's a shame if you can't retrieve them. Data like that would still be useful even if Covid has had an effect. My take is even if it has done, it wouldn't be significant. Just another kind of noise that a bigger dataset is designed not to be corrupted by. Smiles Tennis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Two challenger matches starting soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 And two AO selections. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Two starting shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 More for the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Few more for this morning, plenty of underdogs to keep an eye on. Profit so far from the finished matches overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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