Dodgy pulled up and unseated horses

[LEE-GRAYS]

Hi as you know tried this a couple of Times but this will be over jump season will be a slow drip but hopefully the big price winners will our weigh the losers . Just the other day noticed 2 horses unseated rider won there next races I’ve had a 100/1 and 40/1 this year and decent priced winners and places . Follow at own risk ? let’s give it a go cheers lee

[peanut peanut]

Good luck 

[alexcaruso808]

27 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Hi as you know tried this a couple of Times but this will be over jump season will be a slow drip but hopefully the big price winners will our weigh the losers . Just the other day noticed 2 horses unseated rider won there next races I’ve had a 100/1 and 40/1 this year and decent priced winners and places . Follow at own risk ? let’s give it a go cheers lee

Hi Lee, 

What do you think the rationale behind this is? 

[LEE-GRAYS]

ok i will do these for very small stakes for a will 25p e/w see how we go

Newton Abbot

3.38 Percy 55/1 4places

4.45 Sister Raphael 66/1 2places  winner

Downpatrick

2.35 Bally upper 25/1 5places

2.35 Lopito 10/1

3.45 The abbey 11/2 placed 

4.20 Arrycan 20/1 4places non runner

4.20 Rubiana 18/1 4places  

out £3.50 bet365 

g/l lee

 

 

Edited September 17, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS

[LEE-GRAYS]

5 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Hi Lee, 

What do you think the rationale behind this is? 

Hi Alex to be fair racing is a bit dodgy over the years horses being pulled up to get there price up or weight down for future higher prize races jockey falling lightly off and also with flat racing A O’Brien having 2 or 3 horses in race and the outsider winning so I’m trying to make a profit out of the fiddling ? that’s the idea but best just watch see how it goes ?

[alexcaruso808]

9 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Hi Alex to be fair racing is a bit dodgy over the years horses being pulled up to get there price up or weight down for future higher prize races jockey falling lightly off and also with flat racing A O’Brien having 2 or 3 horses in race and the outsider winning so I’m trying to make a profit out of the fiddling ? that’s the idea but best just watch see how it goes ?

I always think that Irish racing is dodgy, I never bet on it! I could be off the mark though. ?

[alexcaruso808]

3 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

ok i will do these for very small stakes for a will 25p e/w see how we go

Newton Abbot

3.38 Percy 55/1 4places

 

Should have went with Borak 100/1 winner ???

[MCLARKE]

I can see the logic of pulled up horses but not so sure about unseated, not sure I'd want to fall off a horse on purpose.

[LEE-GRAYS]

22 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I can see the logic of pulled up horses but not so sure about unseated, not sure I'd want to fall off a horse on purpose.

i think ruby walsh as had a couple lol

[LEE-GRAYS]

4 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

ok i will do these for very small stakes for a will 25p e/w see how we go

Newton Abbot

3.38 Percy 55/1 4places

4.45 Sister Raphael 66/1 2places  winner

Downpatrick

2.35 Bally upper 25/1 5places

2.35 Lopito 10/1

3.45 The abbey 11/2 placed 

4.20 Arrycan 20/1 4places non runner

4.20 Rubiana 18/1 4places  

out £3.50 bet365 

g/l lee

 

 

well there you go could have 100/1 went safe with 66/1 ewe 2 places lol

p/l out £3.50 In £22,16

dont get to excited that wont happen everyday lest got some betting tokens now lol

[Offramp]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

I can see the logic of pulled up horses but not so sure about unseated, not sure I'd want to fall off a horse on purpose.

It does take a lot of physical bravery, and mental strength.

I suppose the jockey would slow down the horse a bit, then wait for a part of the course miles from the camera...

Then take the plunge. Very brave. I'd prefer soft or yielding ground.

If I did it I'd leave a silhouette of my whole body, even on hard ground.

[calva decoy]

6 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

ok i will do these for very small stakes for a will 25p e/w see how we go

Newton Abbot

3.38 Percy 55/1 4places

4.45 Sister Raphael 66/1 2places  winner

Downpatrick

2.35 Bally upper 25/1 5places

2.35 Lopito 10/1

3.45 The abbey 11/2 placed 

4.20 Arrycan 20/1 4places non runner

4.20 Rubiana 18/1 4places  

out £3.50 bet365 

g/l lee

 

 

How did you manage ew on the 66/1 winner ( well done btw ) in a 4 runner race ?

[calva decoy]

1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

i think ruby walsh as had a couple lol

Saved the bookies millions when the Mullins mare fell / skidded at the last at Cheltenham , I forget it's name now , ruined my acca ?

[LEE-GRAYS]

3 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

How did you manage ew on the 66/1 winner ( well done btw ) in a 4 runner race ?

bet365 eachway extra after 10.00 

[LEE-GRAYS]

Have we found the holy grail ???

[alexcaruso808]

Are you going by the horse unseating the rider, or pulling up, on the last race?  

Turnpike Trip, in the 3.15 Newmarket, came 2nd on his last race, and PU the race before that.  What do you think??

Here are some more...

Money in my pocket - 250/1 currently.

Chrisaldy.

Appian Way.

Storm Flight & Oh'herewego

there's a few to keep you going.  ?

Edited September 17, 2021 by alexcaruso808

[LEE-GRAYS]

2 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Are you going by the horse unseating the rider, or pulling up, on the last race?  

Turnpike Trip, in the 3.15 Newmarket, came 2nd on his last race, and PU the race before that.  What do you think??

Only jumps alex for this theory with flat it’s harder to spot jockeys not pushing to hard and like I said big trainers 2 or more in race back outsider . So to answer your question I say no but don’t let me put you off ? I’ll have a £1 e/w now just in case lee

[LEE-GRAYS]

Naven tomorrow then plumpton and listowol in Sunday to test theory ?

[LEE-GRAYS]

5 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Only jumps alex for this theory with flat it’s harder to spot jockeys not pushing to hard and like I said big trainers 2 or more in race back outsider . So to answer your question I say no but don’t let me put you off ? I’ll have a £1 e/w now just in case lee

Like you said unseated rider next race 2nd so that was the bet when came 2nd 

[MCLARKE]

12 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I can see the logic of pulled up horses but not so sure about unseated, not sure I'd want to fall off a horse on purpose.

Having said that the AE for unseated horses is a very impressive 1.12. The AE for PU is also good at 1.01 so there could well be mileage in this process.

For unseated some other stats are :-

Chases AE 1.17

Forecast favourite AE 1.20

Novices AE 1.25

DSLR < 15 AE 1.25

Encouragingly last year was the best out of the last 7 with an AE of 1.29.

 

For pulled up some other stats are :-

Chase AE 1.03

Heavy going AE 1.09

Distance > 25f AE 1.05

Forecast favourite AE 1.04

Conditional jockeys AE 1.07

Female horses AE 1.04

Ireland AE 1.05

Handicaps AE 1.04

December - February AE 1.09

DSLR < 14 AE 1.11

One downside is that last year the AE was 0.92 and 0.95 for the last 4 years.

[alexcaruso808]

43 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Only jumps alex for this theory with flat it’s harder to spot jockeys not pushing to hard and like I said big trainers 2 or more in race back outsider . So to answer your question I say no but don’t let me put you off ? I’ll have a £1 e/w now just in case lee

I put a few tiny (50p) place bets on.  

[Nigwilliam]

My dad was into this angle,along with 214 form  and runners with a Z in the name. He didn't die a wealthy man.

[LEE-GRAYS]

14 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Having said that the AE for unseated horses is a very impressive 1.12. The AE for PU is also good at 1.01 so there could well be mileage in this process.

For unseated some other stats are :-

Chases AE 1.17

Forecast favourite AE 1.20

Novices AE 1.25

DSLR < 15 AE 1.25

Encouragingly last year was the best out of the last 7 with an AE of 1.29.

 

For pulled up some other stats are :-

Chase AE 1.03

Heavy going AE 1.09

Distance > 25f AE 1.05

Forecast favourite AE 1.04

Conditional jockeys AE 1.07

Female horses AE 1.04

Ireland AE 1.05

Handicaps AE 1.04

December - February AE 1.09

DSLR < 14 AE 1.11

One downside is that last year the AE was 0.92 and 0.95 for the last 4 years.

Would you do them win or e/w I could of had 100/1 win but went 66/1 each Way extra ??

[MCLARKE]

All the data is based on win at BSP.

If betting with standard bookmakers I would bet EW in handicaps of 16 runners or more or if extra places were offered.

[LEE-GRAYS]

14 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Are you going by the horse unseating the rider, or pulling up, on the last race?  

Turnpike Trip, in the 3.15 Newmarket, came 2nd on his last race, and PU the race before that.  What do you think??

Here are some more...

Money in my pocket - 250/1 currently.

Chrisaldy.

Appian Way.

Storm Flight & Oh'herewego

there's a few to keep you going.  ?

yes anything pulled up or unseated last race im backing them all unless there under 6/1 from now on saying that might do them win under 6/1 as i say there might be long periods that the really big odds coming but hopefully the 25/1 to 10/1 will be more often time will tell i will do them all on here more to prove that things are a bit dodge lol cheers lee

[LEE-GRAYS]

4 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

yes anything pulled up or unseated last race im backing them all unless there under 6/1 from now on saying that might do them win under 6/1 as i say there might be long periods that the really big odds coming but hopefully the 25/1 to 10/1 will be more often time will tell i will do them all on here more to prove that things are a bit dodge lol cheers lee

Just waiting for each way extra to come up on bet365 not on irish racing yet ?

[LEE-GRAYS]

ok

Navan

1.15 Ajician 100/1 7 places 

1.15 Money in my pocket 100/1 8 places non runner

1.45 Shumaker 35/1 4 places

2.55 Mondragon de baret 28/1 5 places

2.55 Herculaneum 80/1 7 places  non runner

3.30 Papel lodge 6/1 WIN

4.05 Appienway 18/1 e/w

4.40 Storm flight 18/1 e/w

4.40 Oh'herewego  66/1 7 places

4.40 Galypso clermont 14/1 e/w

all bets 25p e/w other than 4.05 win bet 

bet365

cheers lee

Edited September 18, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS

[Bang on]

14 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Having said that the AE for unseated horses is a very impressive 1.12. The AE for PU is also good at 1.01 so there could well be mileage in this process.

For unseated some other stats are :-

Chases AE 1.17

Forecast favourite AE 1.20

Novices AE 1.25

DSLR < 15 AE 1.25

Encouragingly last year was the best out of the last 7 with an AE of 1.29.

 

For pulled up some other stats are :-

Chase AE 1.03

Heavy going AE 1.09

Distance > 25f AE 1.05

Forecast favourite AE 1.04

Conditional jockeys AE 1.07

Female horses AE 1.04

Ireland AE 1.05

Handicaps AE 1.04

December - February AE 1.09

DSLR < 14 AE 1.11

One downside is that last year the AE was 0.92 and 0.95 for the last 4 years.

Forgive my ignorance, but what is AE ? And how is it calculated ?

[gbettle]

9 minutes ago, Bang on said:

Forgive my ignorance, but what is AE ? And how is it calculated ?

It's short for "Actual over Expected"

https://ratingtheraces.com/blog/information/what-is-the-ae-statistic/

[MCLARKE]

I think the logic behind this is that trainers are being a bit dodgy so it may be interesting to see how they have performed.

These are the ones that have had more than 10 winners.

On this basis Gordon Elliott is the most trustworthy, who would have thought it !