LEE-GRAYS Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 1.1.5 wetherby tarseem 5/2 win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 23 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 1.1.5 wetherby tarseem 5/2 win lost p/l out £27.50 in £12.54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 (edited) 1.45 linfield piaff bubbles 10/1 e/w 2.25 taunton an tailliur 10/3 win 12.35 thules my oakelahome 5/1 e/w 12.35 thurles gold greek 9/2 win 12.35 thurles rolling revenge 28/1 e/w Edited November 26, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 23 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 1.45 linfield piaff bubbles 10/1 e/w 2.25 taunton an tailliur 10/3 win 12.35 thules my oakelahome 5/1 e/w 12.35 thurles gold greek 9/2 win 12.35 thurles rolling revenge 28/1 e/w p/l out £30 in £15.29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 (edited) 2.50 doncaster starsky 8/1 e/w Edited November 26, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 2.50 doncaster starsky 8/1 e/w p/l out £30.50 in £18.29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 (edited) 12.20 newcastle better getalong 22/1 e/w 12.05 don scottsdale 20/1 5places 12.40 newbury ahoy senor 15/8 win 13.36 fairyhouse midnight it is 12/1 e/w g/l lee Edited November 27, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted November 28, 2021 Author Share Posted November 28, 2021 21 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 12.20 newcastle better getalong 22/1 e/w 12.05 don scottsdale 20/1 5places 12.40 newbury ahoy senor 15/8 win 13.36 fairyhouse midnight it is 12/1 e/w g/l lee p/l out £32.50 in £20.84 MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted November 28, 2021 Author Share Posted November 28, 2021 3.10 fairyhouse autumn eveinig 10/1 e/w bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted November 29, 2021 Author Share Posted November 29, 2021 23 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 3.10 fairyhouse autumn eveinig 10/1 e/w bet365 lost p/l out £33 in £20.84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 (edited) a few today 12.30 clonmel champagne izzy 30/1 5 places 13.00 clonmel fassbender 7/1 e/w 14.30 clonmel song of the earth 22/1 4 places placed 14.30 clonmel regina dracones 16/1 e/w winner 14.45 wincanton strong glance 10/1 e/w g/l lee bet365 Edited December 3, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 10:47 AM, LEE-GRAYS said: a few today 12.30 clonmel champagne izzy 30/1 5 places 13.00 clonmel fassbender 7/1 e/w 14.30 clonmel song of the earth 22/1 4 places placed 14.30 clonmel regina dracones 16/1 e/w winner 14.45 wincanton strong glance 10/1 e/w g/l lee bet365 thats better p/l out £35.50 in £27.49 MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 13.40 sedgefield kind witness 9/1 e/w gl lee bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 10/18/2021 at 11:35 AM, MCLARKE said: I've had a look at these with the view to developing a system. I can't find an angle for UR but for PU the rules I have ended up with are :- Chase only November - February Forecast odds 5/1 - 50/1 Not group races Not Wincanton Not in the top 4 on the racecard. Over the last 6 years there have been 128 winners from 1,588 races with an AE of 1.38 and a ROI of 35%. With such a low strike rate there will be long losing runs but we'll see what happens. There should be 1 or 2 runners a day. In November there were 2 winners feom 26 runners. The loss to LSP was 12.6 points but the profit to proportional stakes was a healthly 52% and the AE was 1.48. There were 22 runners at BSP of more than 10 and they all lost. I will post the selections in December but would recommend using proportional stakes. LEE-GRAYS and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Plenty of selections on Saturday. I will have a small bet on the shortest priced in each race. Wetherby 0.27 Olly Golly 50/1 Wetherby 0.27 Begoodtoyourself NR Wetherby 1.37 Chef D'Oeuvre 20/1 Wetherby 1.37 Cobra De Mai 10/1 Chepstow 1.57 Broken Halo 9/1 Chepstow 1.57 Manvers House 20/1 Chepstow 1.57 Champagne Rhyt 33/1 Sandown 3.00 Seaston Spirit 33/1 Sandown 3.00 Eclair De Guye 22/1 LEE-GRAYS and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 10 hours ago, MCLARKE said: In November there were 2 winners feom 26 runners. The loss to LSP was 12.6 points but the profit to proportional stakes was a healthly 52% and the AE was 1.48. There were 22 runners at BSP of more than 10 and they all lost. I will post the selections in December but would recommend using proportional stakes. how do you mean proportional stakes... to me that is lsp or a percentage of the bankroll? or do you mean putting more on short than long odds as the wins are less frequent? LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 (edited) my attempt fallers lto. ill go novices chases and novices hcap chase (inexperience) up to 14-1 sp but prices taken at bsp unless similiar price bookie time of asking if u have best odds guaranteed (just an extra free boost on top of quoted roi) 5 runners or more (affects the odds roi) at least three races ran last 12 months... (more experience for horse to come back happy) not 12 stone or more (heavy weight affecting horses return to win) last 6 years results. 151 wins from 767 races 141% ROI downside is 2 years of 6 where unprofitable. this may change when adding the best odds guaranteed element when odds similar which should be worth an extra 15% roi imo at the hit rate. one unprofitable was 2020 though which less races where had so the smaller amount of races affected the roi imo (variation) Edited December 4, 2021 by Wildgarden LEE-GRAYS and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 15 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: how do you mean proportional stakes... to me that is lsp or a percentage of the bankroll? or do you mean putting more on short than long odds as the wins are less frequent? Proportional stakes to me means betting an amount that produces a set amount. So if the aim was to win £100 then I would stake £100 on a 1/1 shot, £10 on a 10/1 shot and £1 on a 100/1 shot. Nigwilliam, Wildgarden and LEE-GRAYS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 (edited) 44 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Proportional stakes to me means betting an amount that produces a set amount. So if the aim was to win £100 then I would stake £100 on a 1/1 shot, £10 on a 10/1 shot and £1 on a 100/1 shot. as long as the positive roi isnt made up of the bigger odds horses thats fine to me. doing a check myself on novice chases pulled up.. roi is on the 25 to 50-1 hits. Edited December 4, 2021 by Wildgarden MCLARKE and LEE-GRAYS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 22 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 13.40 sedgefield kind witness 9/1 e/w gl lee bet365 lost p/l out £36 in £27.39 just to say these are the unseated horses not the pulled up Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 the unseated horses are since the 5 november GB&IRE MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 12.55 aintree 1he big bite 28/1 4 places 14.40 aintree chri's dream 8/1 e/w 14.40 aintree lord de mesnil 28/1 e/w 12.12 chepstow keep wondering 14/1 e/w 14.14 navan ashdale bob 2/1 win 14.53 navan alsfar1 12/1 e/w g/l lee bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Proportional stakes to me means betting an amount that produces a set amount. So if the aim was to win £100 then I would stake £100 on a 1/1 shot, £10 on a 10/1 shot and £1 on a 100/1 shot. I tend to think of that as the “level profit” approach as you’re staking so that every bet returns the same profit. There’s also the “level returns” approach where every bet is staked to return the same amount including stake, e.g. £50 at evens, £25 at 3/1 and £10 at 9/1. It can be worth calculating the return for that as well. MCLARKE and LEE-GRAYS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Wildgarden said: as long as the positive roi isnt made up of the bigger odds horses thats fine to me. doing a check myself on novice chases pulled up.. roi is on the 25 to 50-1 hits. Yes, that's why I like this approach, it is not skewed by the occasional long priced winner. LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calva decoy Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 335 Sandown - NATURAL HISTORY 12/1 ew . Pulled up at Fontwell 20 days ago , is off a low weight with claimer taking 5Lb off , got bags of potential ? LEE-GRAYS and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 22 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 12.55 aintree 1he big bite 28/1 4 places 14.40 aintree chri's dream 8/1 e/w 14.40 aintree lord de mesnil 28/1 e/w 12.12 chepstow keep wondering 14/1 e/w 14.14 navan ashdale bob 2/1 win 14.53 navan alsfar1 12/1 e/w g/l lee bet365 all lost p/l out £39 in £27.39 since 5th nov unseated horses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calva decoy Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 12.17 Huntingdon - WAR CHIEF 50/1 ( 3 places ) 30/1 ( 4 places ) 22/1 ( 5 places ) Trainer A.King does well with hurdlers here at course , horse having 2nd run after wind op . LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 12.25 ponchestown geakach 18/1 e/w 12.55 punchestown aucckland 5/1 15.05 punchestown aherlon 28/1 g/l lee bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Punchestown 3.05 Wishmoor 22/1 Punchestown 3.05 Arverne 28/1 Punchestown 3.05 Bentham 28/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 23 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 12.25 ponchestown geakach 18/1 e/w 12.55 punchestown aucckland 5/1 15.05 punchestown aherlon 28/1 g/l lee bet365 lost p/l out £40.50 in £27.39 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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