Racing Chat - Monday 2nd August

[alexcaruso808]

Kempton

1.00       Jen's Gift.              40/1 EW - My outsider of the day.  I also placed a "to be placed" bet at 8/1.  3rd

1.30      Golden Claim         2/1 - Win 4th

2.05      Natasha                  2/1 - Win 2nd
             Shibuya Song         8/1 - EW 5th

2.40     Mackenzie Rose      6/1 - EW 3rd
            Convection              3/1 - Win 5th
            Fast Attack              15/8 - Win 1st 

3.15    Koda Legend            9/2 - Win 7th
           Claim The Stars        2/1 - Win 2nd (very close!  Ernie's Valetine came from nowhere!)

3.50    Goolwa                     15/8 - Win 1st 

4.20    Shining Success       7/2 - Win 1st

Edited August 2, 2021 by alexcaruso808

[Wildgarden]

anyone noticed how badly richard faheys horses are doing lately... was looking at few tomorrow but seeing how bad hes been doing last year and this ill skip (on turf)!

Edited August 1, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Villa Chris]

8 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

anyone noticed how badly richard faheys horses are doing lately... was looking at few tomorrow but seeing how bad hes been doing last year and this ill skip (on turf)!

I noticed on Saturday. One of his horses which i had as top rated finished last. 

[roger2256]

August +11

1pt level stakes win only 

14.25 Naa Hapipi go Lucky 20/1

16.00 New Star Dreamer 20/1 

16.05 Naa Gatwick Kitten 10/1 

Prices as of now b365 

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

anyone noticed how badly richard faheys horses are doing lately... was looking at few tomorrow but seeing how bad hes been doing last year and this ill skip (on turf)!

According to RP stats the last 14 days = 4 winners out of 89 = 4%.  Funny enough I have Delph Crescent in the 4.12 at Ripon as a possible bet with Paul Hanagan aboard.  I find trainer stats quite baffling at times so maybe I will look for something else in that race.

[Ironjoe]

Ripon 1.57 little miss dynamite 3/1 1pt win

Ripon 3.07 solar screen 3/1 1pt win

Newcastle 4.33 beating all 7/2 1pt win

0.5pt trixie on above for 2pts total

Windsor 6.45 chairmanoftheboard 20/1 1pt ew (5places with sky)

Good luck ? 

[cannotbebeat]

1.57 Ripon Little Miss Dynamo 100/30

2.25 Naas Ever Given 11/2

2.40 Kempton Fast Attack 5/2

3.42 Ripon Paws For Thought 4/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[The Equaliser]

A lot of short priced favourites amongst my chosen class races today.  Although it would seem that this is favourable, in my experience this is where one can lose a lot of money if not being careful

My Trixie today is :

2.40 Km Ebesama 7/4

4.20 Km Mejtham 15/8

4.33 Nc Raise The Roof 5/2

One £1.50 win Trixie = £6.00 with poss return of £82.90

Singles:

3.15 Km Cotai Hero £3.50 at 7.0 = 318.62 and ins bet on Claim the Stars £2 win at 4.1 = £2.65

3.50 Km Hyanna £4.20 win at 6.0 = £20.58 p if it wins

4.20 Km Kaths Lustre £3.50 at 6.78 = £19.8. p if it wins

3.42 Rip Macho Pride £4.50 at 5.8 = £21.17 p if it wins

4.12 Rip Delphs Crescent £2 win at 11.50 (um at 8.8)

4.33 Nc Beating All £2 win at 4.7 = £7.25 p if it wins

7.30 Carl Amaysmount (LP3/RF?) £5 win at 5.4 = £21.56

6.45 win Huraiz (MG, remember him) at 18.5 = £34.30 p if it wins

Hopefully not over stretched my finances today

Total stakes  £34.70

Good luck to all; don't put too much on those shorties ?

I have placed £4.10 to win at 3.0 on Raise The Roof my 3rd Trixie selection as the first two have lost.  This would mean a profit of £6.08 to cover the cost of my Trixie and reduces the profit to £3.23 should Beating All prevail.    

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2021 by The Equaliser

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

According to RP stats the last 14 days = 4 winners out of 89 = 4%.  Funny enough I have Delph Crescent in the 4.12 at Ripon as a possible bet with Paul Hanagan aboard.  I find trainer stats quite baffling at times so maybe I will look for something else in that race.

u have him Amaysmount now too lol. yeah but even the long term stats are bad. im doing some all weather of his later instead at nice prices (3 at newcastle) earlier races 218 lincoln gamble 25.0 betfair exchange, 253 bois de norton 16.0 and credible 22.0.

Edited August 2, 2021 by Wildgarden

[The Equaliser]

27 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

u have him Amaysmount now too lol. yeah but even the long term stats are bad. im doing some all weather of his later instead at nice prices (3 at newcastle) earlier races 218 lincoln gamble 25.0 betfair exchange, 253 bois de norton 16.0 and credible 22.0.

Let's see who is laughing later on ?

[alexcaruso808]

36 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

u have him Amaysmount now too lol. yeah but even the long term stats are bad. im doing some all weather of his later instead at nice prices (3 at newcastle) earlier races 218 lincoln gamble 25.0 betfair exchange, 253 bois de norton 16.0 and credible 22.0.

All of them will probably win ?

[Wildgarden]

started posting my naps from today might not be every day but see how i go against the best lol.

[azzybear]

Rosa gloriosa 1.40

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

All of them will probably win ?

The problem is Alex that I have in the past disregarded a trainer's runner when it was fancied and he/she is on a very bad run and of course the damn thing won.  Hence, being an eternal (infernal) optimist I now take the view that however bad a trainer is doing he has to break his duck one day, hopefully with my selection.  Took 10.0 for Delphs Crescent which is better than the 8 or 8.8 that was on offer earlier.  That's value isn't it?

 

[Wildgarden]

3 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

u have him Amaysmount now too lol. yeah but even the long term stats are bad. im doing some all weather of his later instead at nice prices (3 at newcastle) earlier races 218 lincoln gamble 25.0 betfair exchange, 253 bois de norton 16.0 and credible 22.0.

no good for all the bad run continues even on all weather

[Villa Chris]

Horses can run well without winning. If a trainer is having plenty of placed form but no winners, then it’s not too much of a concern. If said trainers horses are struggling to place, then there’s probably a valid reason why that’s happening. 

[Zilzalian]

I see Venetia Williams has one out on the flat tonight at Windsor.

Small fun bet 40p  Lucky 15 = a sick squid

545 fort denison               6/1 lost

645 open wide               22/1 lost

745 bellverde                  7/2 won

815 a large dram           20/1 lost

I think i will do one of these everyday and take a leaf out of @The Equaliser book and run a bank until it either loses or doubles.

 

 Bank £100 Stk £6.00 Rtns £3.20 Loss £2.80 Bank= £97.20 1 winner at 7/2

Edited August 2, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

started posting my naps from today might not be every day but see how i go against the best lol.

Can't seem to find your selection in the Naps comp today.  I have missed something

Ooops Tarnhelm 8.30 Carlisle Good luck

 

Edited August 2, 2021 by The Equaliser
Bloomer

[The Equaliser]

6 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I see Venetia Williams has one out on the flat tonight at Windsor.

Small fun bet 40p  Lucky 15 = a sick squid

545 fort denison               6/1

645 open wide               22/1

745 bellverde                  7/2

815 a large dram           20/1

Glad to see you back ?

 

[The Equaliser]

9 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Horses can run well without winning. If a trainer is having plenty of placed form but no winners, then it’s not too much of a concern. If said trainers horses are struggling to place, then there’s probably a valid reason why that’s happening. 

Hadn't thought about that.  Good point

 

[Wildgarden]

49 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Horses can run well without winning. If a trainer is having plenty of placed form but no winners, then it’s not too much of a concern. If said trainers horses are struggling to place, then there’s probably a valid reason why that’s happening. 

it is if ur not doing each way and backing win only lol

[Villa Chris]

6 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

it is if ur not doing each way and backing win only lol

Well it’s sometimes hard to know when a yard will peak and when it will start to decline. Horse running into the places a lot indicates the yard isn’t too far off having its horses primed. I’m just saying trainer form can be misleading when it’s a low % of wins over the last 14 days. A loss is a loss but I’d rather my selection finish 2nd or 5th out of 25 instead of not giving you a run for your money. I look at trainer form but it’s down to the horse at the end of the day. That horse in particular could be in decent form but the yard is in poor form. 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Glad to see you back ?

 

Never went, i just waited until he had "gone" meaning being quiet and no more responses. In other news Noticed they backed venetia williams horse down to fav and it got beat 7L

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

The problem is Alex that I have in the past disregarded a trainer's runner when it was fancied and he/she is on a very bad run and of course the damn thing won.

As with everything else it all depends whether the market has taken the recent run in to account.

If a trainer is on a good run this is often shouted from the rooftops and is probably over compensated in the market. I do get irritated when commentators hawk on about how many winners Mark Johnston has but he sends out loads of horses (often several in one race) so he is bound to have a lot of winners. They also say that you very rarely beat a Johnston horse when it is in the lead. I'm probably talking through my pocket because my nap today was one of his horses that was favourite and in the lead but ended up losing.

As for Fahey, he's another one who has the irritating habit of having lots of horses in the same race.

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Carlise 8.30

RICHARD R H B 7/2

[azzybear]

Glen esk 8.15

[Wildgarden]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Can't seem to find your selection in the Naps comp today.  I have missed something

Ooops Tarnhelm 8.30 Carlisle Good luck

 

thought had it won bad start ;-(

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

A lot of short priced favourites amongst my chosen class races today.  Although it would seem that this is favourable, in my experience this is where one can lose a lot of money if not being careful

My Trixie today is :

2.40 Km Ebesama 7/4

4.20 Km Mejtham 15/8

4.33 Nc Raise The Roof 5/2

One £1.50 win Trixie = £6.00 with poss return of £82.90

Singles:

3.15 Km Cotai Hero £3.50 at 7.0 = 318.62 and ins bet on Claim the Stars £2 win at 4.1 = £2.65

3.50 Km Hyanna £4.20 win at 6.0 = £20.58 p if it wins

4.20 Km Kaths Lustre £3.50 at 6.78 = £19.8. p if it wins

3.42 Rip Macho Pride £4.50 at 5.8 = £21.17 p if it wins

4.12 Rip Delphs Crescent £2 win at 11.50 (um at 8.8)

4.33 Nc Beating All £2 win at 4.7 = £7.25 p if it wins

7.30 Carl Amaysmount (LP3/RF?) £5 win at 5.4 = £21.56

6.45 win Huraiz (MG, remember him) at 18.5 = £34.30 p if it wins

Hopefully not over stretched my finances today

Total stakes  £34.70

Good luck to all; don't put too much on those shorties ?

I have placed £4.10 to win at 3.0 on Raise The Roof my 3rd Trixie selection as the first two have lost.  This would mean a profit of £6.08 to cover the cost of my Trixie and reduces the profit to £3.23 should Beating All prevail.    

 

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Well, a blank day for me I'm afraid; however, I can see where I went wrong in a couple of the races. Fast attack that beat my nap must be some horse wining by 6 lengths in the 2.40 at Kempton with James Doyle aboard.  The market knew about it too shortening it to 6/4 favourite.  A loss of £38.80 means my new balance is £669.67 (Bank £1056.22).

5 UK meetings tomorrow and I can only count 1 class 3 race with a 15/8 favourite and 7 class 4 races with most favourites being at short odds.  Looks like another tough one